How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)

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Tuna

19,930 posts

286 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
Max_Torque said:
Tuna said:
Certainly, we need to find the negotiators and political leaders who can face up to the task ahead.
This is a similar task to trying to find a bunch of mathematicians to make 2 + 2 = 5.

Sure, a 'better" team could probably get a few minor advantages in the legal framework, but the simple fact is we are not 'bargaining from a position of strength" and never have been.......
You misunderstand me - I'm not expecting some magic 'super bonus' deal to come out of this. These negotiations are going to go on for years, with a lot of political compromises along the way. Our current lot are going to keep digging the hole deeper so long as we let them, and are absolutely failing to be open to the public about the choices they are making.

Regardless of what you want from Brexit, that's just not an acceptable way to continue. I don't for one minute think there's a position of strength to be had - but I do know that the bullst that floats around Brexit is in a large part allowed to continue due to the fact that our representatives are incapable of being honest about what they are doing and why.

There are no right or easy choices - it's all difficult choices and hard decisions, and that's been obvious from the day we got the Referendum result. Time we faced up to it.

Kermit power

28,785 posts

215 months

Friday 14th December 2018
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The Dangerous Elk said:
p1stonhead said:
What does it mean then? What would no deal do for the biggest elephant in the room which is Ireland?
That is up to the EU, it is their red line not ours. We are happy with free trade/movement and it is not us talking about closed borders, terrorist uprisings and building border posts topped with machine guns to protect their protectionist super state in the making.
If we are happy with free trade/movement, why are we bothering with Brexit in the first place? Unless you're suggesting that the ROI is going to have a hard border with the rest of the EU, so that free movement and trade between the North and the South definitely only covers Brits and Paddies?

JuanCarlosFandango

7,849 posts

73 months

Friday 14th December 2018
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Here's how that lane will look on March 30th if we don't have a deal.


Tuna

19,930 posts

286 months

Friday 14th December 2018
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p1stonhead said:
amusingduck said:
essayer said:
90 days maximum stay in the EU per visit without a visa. Nice.
I wonder what kind of reaction we can expect from the dozens of people that will affect laughbiggrin
What about the millions who live there now?
It's not millions. It's not even million according to recent figures - somewhere around 900,000. It's up to the EU to decide what they want to do about those citizens - and one would hope they're not used as a political football. On the whole I believe they're a net source of income to the nations they're based in?

anonymous-user

56 months

Friday 14th December 2018
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SpeckledJim said:
If an MP believes that Brexit should be reversed, shouldn’t they have stood for election in 2017 on that position? Instead of standing for a party promising the opposite?

Let’s be honest, if the Labour and Tory MPs who would like us to remain had stood for parties who agree with that policy, then they wouldn’t have won their seats at all.

To have stood for Conservative or Labour in 2017, won the job, and then to try to reverse Brexit is an act of deceit. This is by far the biggest issue of the day, not a minor point of disagreement over some trifle on Page 11 of the manifesto.
There will be millions of people that voted Conservative or Labour and had their candidate elected who would gladly see Brexit reversed. How do you square that?

p1stonhead

25,743 posts

169 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
Tuna said:
p1stonhead said:
amusingduck said:
essayer said:
90 days maximum stay in the EU per visit without a visa. Nice.
I wonder what kind of reaction we can expect from the dozens of people that will affect laughbiggrin
What about the millions who live there now?
It's not millions. It's not even million according to recent figures - somewhere around 900,000. It's up to the EU to decide what they want to do about those citizens - and one would hope they're not used as a political football. On the whole I believe they're a net source of income to the nations they're based in?
So from dozens to 900,000 laugh

Tuna

19,930 posts

286 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
JuanCarlosFandango said:


Here's how that lane will look on March 30th if we don't have a deal.
What bks. Ireland will be black and white too I assume? biggrin

amusingduck

9,398 posts

138 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
amusingduck said:
essayer said:
90 days maximum stay in the EU per visit without a visa. Nice.
I wonder what kind of reaction we can expect from the dozens of people that will affect laughbiggrin
What about the millions who live there now?
What about them? Do their countries of residence not have the power to grant a more long term solution? Can they not get stuck in and become citizens of their new homes?

don'tbesilly

13,951 posts

165 months

Friday 14th December 2018
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Ghibli said:
don'tbesilly said:
It's just me suggesting May is being untruthful is it?

May wouldn't allow her deal to go ahead on Tuesday, May said in the HoC it would be defeated, her words.

The deal May has now worked hard to make more acceptable to those who would have voted against it on the Tuesday is now worse than the one she had on Monday according to sources who know far more than you or I.

It is a guess yes, but based on May's own words on Monday in the HoC it is a fairly sound guess with some form of credibility.

But you can carry on.
We don’t know the result of the vote because it hasn’t happened yet.

You believe may when she says there won’t be another referendum yet you don’t believe other things she says.

As things evolve things change just like her saying there wouldn’t be a general election.

You and PH team leaves predictions have been wrong so far, TM is still PM.
and brexit is a joke.
Where have I said I believe anything/everything May states?

Writing what she has stated doesn't automatically make the writer a believer in what someone has both written/said.

Does the below convey that I believe what May said?

don'tbesilly said:
May has also said she won't ask for an extension to A50 go figure

Why would Brexit supporters demand a 2nd referendum?

JuanCarlosFandango

7,849 posts

73 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
Max_Torque said:
Tuna said:
Certainly, we need to find the negotiators and political leaders who can face up to the task ahead.
This is a similar task to trying to find a bunch of mathematicians to make 2 + 2 = 5.

Sure, a 'better" team could probably get a few minor advantages in the legal framework, but the simple fact is we are not 'bargaining from a position of strength" and never have been.......
The very least we had in terms of a position of strength was the ability to say that we are willing and able to walk away with no deal. Besides the empty rhetoric of "no deal is better than a bad deal" May has made it perfectly clear that she had no intention of walking away, as Cameron had no intention of backing a leave vote even if he hadn't won his laughable reforms ahead of the referendum.

Predictably enough this hasn't produced great results in either case.

A position of strength doesn't necessarily mean they have to be entirely dependent and begging for any deal on any terms. The strength to walk away us enough. And indeed is the minimum prerequisite for getting any sort of deal at all. Without that it isn't really a deal at all, just a new set of conditions.

p1stonhead

25,743 posts

169 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
ash73 said:
Tuna said:
There are no right or easy choices - it's all difficult choices and hard decisions, and that's been obvious from the day we got the Referendum result. Time we faced up to it.
It feels like a game of chess where there are three or four moves and I don't like ANY of them. Very difficult to see a way out of this.

I think May's deal is now dead, she needs to say so and put some serious thought into how to best use the time left. If she still thinks a deal is possible the EFTA option needs fleshing out. Otherwise, what are the (detailed) consequences of no deal, are we actually going to do it, if not do we cancel article 50, or do we delay it and do a second referendum.

I'm wondering if May might resign after this disasterous trip, it could not have gone any worse.
There are reports coming out that TM was asked multiple times by Merkel yesterday 'what do you want?' in terms of her coming back to see them.

She couldnt answer. Parliament sent her for 'some' reason and she couldnt articulate it. Because no one knows. She ALREADY AGREED the deal she was there to talk about changing in some way.

An apprently she even once said 'Brexit Means Brexit' to them.

I mean....

alfie2244

11,292 posts

190 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
ash73 said:
I'm wondering if May might resign after this disasterous trip, it could not have gone any worse.
Missed the 1st part of DP but caught the end of May appears to be having a public row with the Drunk over some "insults" he may have aimed at her?

don'tbesilly

13,951 posts

165 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
ash73 said:
Tuna said:
There are no right or easy choices - it's all difficult choices and hard decisions, and that's been obvious from the day we got the Referendum result. Time we faced up to it.
It feels like a game of chess where there are three or four moves and I don't like ANY of them. Very difficult to see a way out of this.

I think May's deal is now dead, she needs to say so and put some serious thought into how to best use the time left. If she still thinks a deal is possible the EFTA option needs fleshing out. Otherwise, what are the (detailed) consequences of no deal, are we actually going to do it, if not do we cancel article 50, or do we delay it and do a second referendum.

I'm wondering if May might resign after this disasterous trip, it could not have gone any worse.
There are reports coming out that TM was asked multiple times by Merkel yesterday 'what do you want?' in terms of her coming back to see them.

She couldnt answer. Parliament sent her for 'some' reason and she couldnt articulate it. Because no one knows. She ALREADY AGREED the deal she was there to talk about changing in some way.

An apprently she even once said 'Brexit Means Brexit' to them.

I mean....
May volunteered to go back to the EU when she admitted her deal would be voted down on the Tuesday.

May has acted to all intents and purposes on her own since she chose not to proceed with the vote, the Cabinet probably demanded it but they (Cabinet) have accepted collective responsibility.

One has to ask if May is forced to/offers to resign, where does that leave her cabinet?


Thorodin

2,459 posts

135 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
It's about time the reality of 'the border' was discussed. The entire problem is one of blame apportionment should trouble once again break out and the escape route for the politicians should that happen. Nobody wants to be left taking blame for resurgence of terrorism - it's got sweet FA to do with trade.

If there is a WTO finish the questioon of a border is entirely for the EU and the Repuiblic. Neither of those want it, in fact will fight tooth and nail to avoid it, so they can come to a sensible agreement between them. It's a manufactured non-problem as a result of posturing. If there is no way out, a red line could be drawn from Dundalk Bay, east to limit of international waters, then south to Wexford, then south west to Fastnet. What they do between them on Republic Ireland land is for them to decide and be responsible for in every respect. Nowt to do with us. Exactly like the other borders on the Eastern borders of the EU.

johnxjsc1985

15,948 posts

166 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
ash73 said:
I'm wondering if May might resign after this disasterous trip, it could not have gone any worse.
What else has she to offer now?. The ERG want her gone the DUP will not support her Labour smell an Election just resign get a new mandate from the people so campaign on leave or remain and just get this done. Oh and elect a new Conservative leader for the non ERG lot who may as well split.

FiF

44,297 posts

253 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
At a lower level appears to be a row between BBC Sports correspondents. Cricket commentator Aggers has reminded Lineker that his BBC contract requires him to keep his political views to himself and he should stick to football.

Lineker responds with a go forth and multiply and it's only because you don't agree with me so it doesn't count, then fires one across the bows of both Peter Shilton and Chris Waddle telling both of them to stick to football.

Tell you what Mr Lineker, if as you declare Brexit is more important to you than football you'll be resigning from Match of the Day then and applying for Brillo's job.

p1stonhead

25,743 posts

169 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
p1stonhead said:
ash73 said:
Tuna said:
There are no right or easy choices - it's all difficult choices and hard decisions, and that's been obvious from the day we got the Referendum result. Time we faced up to it.
It feels like a game of chess where there are three or four moves and I don't like ANY of them. Very difficult to see a way out of this.

I think May's deal is now dead, she needs to say so and put some serious thought into how to best use the time left. If she still thinks a deal is possible the EFTA option needs fleshing out. Otherwise, what are the (detailed) consequences of no deal, are we actually going to do it, if not do we cancel article 50, or do we delay it and do a second referendum.

I'm wondering if May might resign after this disasterous trip, it could not have gone any worse.
There are reports coming out that TM was asked multiple times by Merkel yesterday 'what do you want?' in terms of her coming back to see them.

She couldnt answer. Parliament sent her for 'some' reason and she couldnt articulate it. Because no one knows. She ALREADY AGREED the deal she was there to talk about changing in some way.

An apprently she even once said 'Brexit Means Brexit' to them.

I mean....
May volunteered to go back to the EU when she admitted her deal would be voted down on the Tuesday.

May has acted to all intents and purposes on her own since she chose not to proceed with the vote, the Cabinet probably demanded it but they (Cabinet) have accepted collective responsibility.

One has to ask if May is forced to/offers to resign, where does that leave her cabinet?
I agree with that.

But she still couldn’t actually articulate why she was actually there.

I don’t see how she can continue now either despite the vote this week.

paul.deitch

2,111 posts

259 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
It's the political car crash of the decade! Just embarrassing for the Uk.

gooner1

10,223 posts

181 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
paul.deitch said:
It's the political car crash of the decade! Just embarrassing for the Uk.
Hardly surprising considering who's driving and those navigating.

kayc

4,492 posts

223 months

Friday 14th December 2018
quotequote all
paul.deitch said:
It's the political car crash of the decade! Just embarrassing for the Uk.
Could be worse..you could be French.

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