How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 9)

[wc98]

Robertj21a said:

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I really can't believe that some people are still trotting out the silliness about older Leavers vs younger Remainers.....

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to be fair it appears he is new to the thread, probably young and doesn't understand just as many, possibly more, people will have crossed the line between being reluctant remain voters to favour voting leave.

[anonymous-user]

jsf said:

It is not all old people that die, if you look at the mortality statistics and then look at the spread of votes in the middle aged sector, you will see hoping its all the old leavers that are dying off is a nonsense argument.

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That ^^ is in my analysis, as i have summated ALL deaths across all age Sets from the .gov data linked

That includes the people who were born in 1998 and 1999 but have died before they were able to turn 18 (12,975 people actually)

[don'tbesilly]

steve_k said:

Elysium said:

steve_k said:

Elysium said:

If we are still in the EU at the time, then they will be our elections also.

It is an awkward situation, so they will want to know our intentions. Since they will not want to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, time for further talks is likely to be out, as is a general election due to the instability that might cause.

Time for a second referendum is probably the only justification they will accept.

I think you might be right it is the next step to reverse the result.

I think the EU will accept a second referendum because it will end the Brexit process. From their perspective there is a good chance that we will decide to remain or accept the withdrawal agreement.

Both are good outcomes for the EU.

They will accept the risk of no-deal through an extension as they face that as a certainty if they refuse.

Conveniently the EU refusing an extension without a referendum removes the decision to have one from our politicians, the EU demands made them do it and they don't want to leave without a deal.

It's all part of the elites plan to stop Brexit and is now finally unfolding.

Everything unfolding in front of our eyes is ammunition for any Leave campaign.

Farage will be all over this like a rash if it comes to a second referendum, he's already made his intentions crystal about such.

What will Remain have in any campaign, another fear version of the first which failed spectacularly?
All the Remainers talk about in the threads regarding Brexit are variations along a theme of why the first Remain campaign failed, no-one has learnt anything about the failings of the first campaign.

What benefits have Remain or the EU presented over the last 30 odd months for staying a member?
The PR from the EU has done nothing but show them in a bad light, and their contempt for May and the UK electorate has been plain to see.

Remainers talk about deaths,yet fail to see the voters on the fence from the first time around, and the voters who voted Remain out of fear from the promises/predictions from the Remain camp about a recession/job losses and ever increasing interest rates and the inability of some not being able to pay the mortgage (George Osborne).

What motivation would there be for a Leave voter to change to Remain, what have the EU presented as a positive since the last referendum, what has any Remainer presented as a positive to change their mind bar the clear attempts to thwart the result from the first time around.

I'm looking forward to the Remain campaign, it will be interesting what the campaign can now present as a reason to Remain a member of the EU given the failing of the first, and the blatant attempts to thwart the outcome from the 1st referendum,

[wc98]

steve_k said:

I don't know if they did or did not, I never expected any sort of mutually acceptable deal on our future relationship until after we had left so where we are now in the negotiations is no shock.

All I see is up to now is a one sided negotiation designed to try to reverse the result.

this post possibly highlights why there is so much confusion between posters from either side on here. i thought we would leave,then temporary measures would be applied across the board to keep disruption to a minimum on both sides and then negotiations would begin.

[anonymous-user]

crankedup said:

Wouldn’t have thought the EU will allow an extension that would involve the U.K. to be involved with thier upcoming Elections?

They will go for a long extension.

The only reason a short extension will be used is if the WA passes.

[crankedup]

s2art said:

crankedup said:

Mrr T said:

crankedup said:

Certainly it would appear that many MPs position is at odds with thier electorate, as such Boles has at least recognised this as his own situation. Likely outcome for some will be standing as an independent or Membership of a emerging Political Party, an assortment of odds and sods that fall between the two main Parties.
As others have said, it is the beginning of a transformed Political landscape which will develop over the next two or three GE?

When can we expect John Redwood to stand down?

Agreed, of course it’s the polar opposite situation in him being a leaver from a constituency that voted majority to remain. Hence why questions will be asked by the electorate regarding the issue.

Its not the same. Both were elected on the Tory manifesto. Redwood is sticking to it, Boles is not.

Obviously I need to perhaps make it clearer in my posts, I refer to the constituency vote majority being not represented by thier MP in the voting patterns, ie MP votes opposite to thier majority constituency. The manifesto is a National issue whereas the Referendum, although obviously National, it becomes a local issue regarding an MP voting.Do they represent thier electorate or not?

[Elysium]

Max_Torque said:

Ok, PROVE me wrong: Lets do the numbers

Isn’t the age thing just a logical fallacy?

If the proposition is that older people support leave and younger remain there must be segment or range of ages in the middle where we begin to change our views?

Despite older people dying and younger people reaching voting age the age range and distribution of voters will remain constant. We are all aging after all.

Logically, assuming the link to age is statistically robust, older leavers will have been replaced by younger remainers, but there will be a similar number of people in the ‘transitional’ area who have shifted from the middle ground to leave.

[psi310398]

Mrr T said:

When can we expect John Redwood to stand down?

AIUI, he is liked and much respected by his association and, as he is not breaching his manifesto commitments, he has no reason to.

[Piha]

Max_Torque said:

Ok, PROVE me wrong: Lets do the numbers


Uk Births and Death figures from .gov statistics

Brexit voter profile from:
Brexit Voting vs age





Assumptions:

We will consider two years - 2016 & 2017 - and use the published Birth/Death statistics for each of those years

Assume that those born in 1998 and 1999, and who haven't died yet turn 18 in these years and vote

Those who died in these two years are removed from each age group (summation of the deaths statistics for each Set)

We will split the population into the age group "sets" as shown in the voting profile above, and that distribution (% leave / remain) is unchanged

+ equals new voter

- equals lost (dead) voter

Assume that people who don't die or become eligible to vote don't change their vote, ie we only look at the change due to births and deaths

We are not considering the distribution of voter turnout vs age, ie we will assume that the same proportion of each age Set would vote as they did in the first vote.

Set changes:

18 to 24 Leave: +252,700 Remain: +1,151,189
25 to 34 Leave: -3,296 Remain: -6,693
35 to 44 Leave: -8,867 Remain: -11,286
45 to 54 Leave: -27,262 Remain: -22,305
55 to 64 Leave: -53,981 Remain: - 42,414
65+ Leave: -670,333 Remain: -345,323

Totals:
Leave looses 511,041 votes
Remain gains 723,167 votes

i.e. a total swing of 1,234,208 votes towards Remain.




Do you disagree? If so, please show your working, assumptions and source

[anonymous-user]

Max_Torque said:

This analysis therefore is not subjective, it is objective. It shows a significant objective swing towards remain.

Now, of course, people may change their vote in any age group, but it seems unlikely to me, given the statistical confidence of the distribution shown in the first vote (young = stay, old = remain, but large percentage points) that any "change of mind" will significantly swing new or old voters to change their minds. This is especially true as your voting preference, whilst shown to be a coupled function of your age, is not directly due to your age. So if you are 18 and you vote to stay, you are unlike to vote to leave because you are now 2 years older (ie you are now 20)

Its unrealistic to expect those who reluctantly voted to remain to not have reconsidered.

Its also unrealistic to think the youth vote is so heavily biased towards remain, because there is now a new dynamic in the mix which centres on the will to uphold a Democratic process result to its conclusion.

[crankedup]

bhstewie said:

The idea all constituency MPs should represent their constituents views solely on Brexit has always been absurd.

I didn't realise how absurd until yesterday when I did a little digging and apparently if constituency's in General Elections were measured in the same way Brexit voting was we'd have around 65% of MP's in the HoC representing "leave".

65% of MP's sitting for 5 years baed on one single issue.

Does anyone honestly think that's healthy?

You. just realise the enormity of the brexit vote, the most important political single event in most people’s life time.

[s2art]

crankedup said:

s2art said:

crankedup said:

Mrr T said:

crankedup said:

Certainly it would appear that many MPs position is at odds with thier electorate, as such Boles has at least recognised this as his own situation. Likely outcome for some will be standing as an independent or Membership of a emerging Political Party, an assortment of odds and sods that fall between the two main Parties.
As others have said, it is the beginning of a transformed Political landscape which will develop over the next two or three GE?

When can we expect John Redwood to stand down?

Agreed, of course it’s the polar opposite situation in him being a leaver from a constituency that voted majority to remain. Hence why questions will be asked by the electorate regarding the issue.

Its not the same. Both were elected on the Tory manifesto. Redwood is sticking to it, Boles is not.

Obviously I need to perhaps make it clearer in my posts, I refer to the constituency vote majority being not represented by thier MP in the voting patterns, ie MP votes opposite to thier majority constituency. The manifesto is a National issue whereas the Referendum, although obviously National, it becomes a local issue regarding an MP voting.Do they represent thier electorate or not?

If they were elected in on a clear manifesto which the candidate has stated he will follow, then he has a mandate from his constituency.

[anonymous-user]

My analysis, as mentioned, assumes the voting proportions for each age Set would not change in the case of any new vote.

That is of course unlikely to exactly occur. But once again, if you look at actual data, you see:



which shows that the older generations had a significantly larger percentage turn out, as compared to the younger generations.

If that turnout distribution changed, it plays even more into the "young vs old" statistic as there are more young people who didn't vote who could vote as compared to older people:

If we hypothetically assumed every single person now votes in any new vote, and use the voter turnout data above to re-weight the results, then the Births of young, death of old, gets even more pronounced, in fact, a swing of 9,650,729 to remain!!

[don'tbesilly]

Elysium said:

don'tbesilly said:

Elysium said:

don'tbesilly said:

There are also rumblings of a 4th if the 3rd doesn't hack it, which will take the decision right to the wire, all the time the Withdrawal Bill sits in the top drawer with a clear plan to thwart any attempts to change/amend it.

Does the EU want British MEP's in the EU parliament?

Manfred Weber certainly doesn't, Verhofstadt certainly won't, how many more share their feelings?
The French are going to be causing enough problems for the EU, ask Macron his thoughts on the EU elections.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1095578/brexit-n...

If the deal somehow gets to a 4th vote it will pass. At that point there will be no time for anything else.

For that reason it must be crunch time next week. I expect the Bryant amendment to be tabled ruling out further votes on the same deal. I also expect the second referendum motions to be rolled out.

The EU clearly don’t want our MEPs there. Getting rid of Farage is probably one of the only consolations they have from this process.

That pesky document still sat in the drawer.

Just as a matter of interest did you watch the Peston show last week?

Peston had Steve Baker in the chair and Peston asked about the WB, Baker's response was very interesting.

If you didn't watch it you should do, it will be on catch up somewhere.

I did see it and I also saw Steve baker speaking with raw emotion in parliament after the no deal vote. There is no way that he is going to back Mays deal.

I don’t think there is any leverage around the withdrawal act though. He may try to filibuster his way to no deal if it is approved next week, but that is doomed to fail.

It is the reason why May has proposed a technical extension to article 50 and on my reading a minister can amend the exit date in the withdrawal act without the need for parliament.

If the deal gets passed next week we will leave the EU on that basis.

I don't think he will accept the deal, and whether he does or not wasn't really the point.

Perhaps you could point out why what Baker talked about in regards the WB will fail, as opposed to just write off such happening?

If as Peston also mentioned and even with just a 3rd vote on the WA, any decision in regards accepting the terms the EU come back with in regards an extension may not happen until the 27th/28th March at an emergency meeting of the EU council, at which point the WB will still be in force.

[bitchstewie]

crankedup said:

You. just realise the enormity of the brexit vote, the most important political single event in most people’s life time.

We'll cut hospital funding by 40% but we'll deliver Brexit.

We'll cut funding for schools but we'll deliver Brexit.

We'll cut funding for mental health but we'll deliver Brexit.

We'll reduce funding for care for the elderly but we'll deliver Brexit.

We'll increase the basic rate of income tax by 10% but we'll deliver Brexit.

Plenty of things have a far bigger impact on peoples day to day life and how they choose to vote.

The idea that Brexit is the be all and end all is ridiculous to most people.

[wc98]

bhstewie said:

The idea all constituency MPs should represent their constituents views solely on Brexit has always been absurd.

I didn't realise how absurd until yesterday when I did a little digging and apparently if constituency's in General Elections were measured in the same way Brexit voting was we'd have around 65% of MP's in the HoC representing "leave".

65% of MP's sitting for 5 years baed on one single issue.

Does anyone honestly think that's healthy?

nope, but the current performance of parliament suggests a possibility we might be on the road to something like in that at the next election.

[GT119]

Elysium said:

Max_Torque said:

Ok, PROVE me wrong: Lets do the numbers

Isn’t the age thing just a logical fallacy?

If the proposition is that older people support leave and younger remain there must be segment or range of ages in the middle where we begin to change our views?

Despite older people dying and younger people reaching voting age the age range and distribution of voters will remain constant. We are all aging after all.

Logically, assuming the link to age is statistically robust, older leavers will have been replaced by younger remainers, but there will be a similar number of people in the ‘transitional’ area who have shifted from the middle ground to leave.

I’m still waiting for someone to present evidence that this is the case for Brexit, I think there is a good chance that the behaviour of existing voters isn’t going to follow the normal trends.

There are no polls I can find that show it conclusively. What I can see is that the floating votes are about even between the two. If that is the case then there is a continuous reduction in leave voters ongoing. It hasn’t quite reached the point where it has shifted to remain but would do so in the next year or so.

Tin foil hat on, the ‘Establishment’ would know all of this already, which may be why they are dragging out the date for the second referendum to be as late as possible.

[98elise]

Max_Torque said:

Robertj21a said:

.

I really can't believe that some people are still trotting out the silliness about older Leavers vs younger Remainers.....

.

Ok, PROVE me wrong: Lets do the numbers


Uk Births and Death figures from .gov statistics

Brexit voter profile from:
Brexit Voting vs age





Assumptions:

We will consider two years - 2016 & 2017 - and use the published Birth/Death statistics for each of those years

Assume that those born in 1998 and 1999, and who haven't died yet turn 18 in these years and vote

Those who died in these two years are removed from each age group (summation of the deaths statistics for each Set)

We will split the population into the age group "sets" as shown in the voting profile above, and that distribution (% leave / remain) is unchanged

+ equals new voter

- equals lost (dead) voter

Assume that people who don't die or become eligible to vote don't change their vote, ie we only look at the change due to births and deaths

We are not considering the distribution of voter turnout vs age, ie we will assume that the same proportion of each age Set would vote as they did in the first vote.

Set changes:

18 to 24 Leave: +252,700 Remain: +1,151,189
25 to 34 Leave: -3,296 Remain: -6,693
35 to 44 Leave: -8,867 Remain: -11,286
45 to 54 Leave: -27,262 Remain: -22,305
55 to 64 Leave: -53,981 Remain: - 42,414
65+ Leave: -670,333 Remain: -345,323

Totals:
Leave looses 511,041 votes
Remain gains 723,167 votes

i.e. a total swing of 1,234,208 votes towards Remain.




Do you disagree? If so, please show your working, assumptions and source

You're assuming that people don't change their minds as they get older, which is not the case. Younger people also tend to vote Labour and older people conservative. The split remains similar with the passing of time because a lot of people change their views.

[catso]

Elysium said:

If the proposition is that older people support leave and younger remain there must be segment or range of ages in the middle where we begin to change our views?

I think it's fairly obvious that things other than just pure age are at play here.

The era that the person grew up in, the 'accepted' views of the day etc. has a great affect on the way they think and evolve, witness those of us that grew up in the '50/'60s/'70s that are nowhere near as tolerant towards 'modern' views and trends (the yoof of today etc.).

I doubt that sufficient numbers of the younger population are likely to change their views to those of the current 'oldies' simply because they're getting older.

[anonymous-user]

Elysium said:

Isn’t the age thing just a logical fallacy?

No.

There is a statistically valid link between a persons Age and how they voted (Leave or Remain) but their is NO direct link. ie it is not actually your Age per-say that sets how you vote, but the human factors that are present in a person of a particular age. ie more "young" people voted to stay for reasons like wanting more freedoms to travel or work aboard when the grown up. "Older" people voted to leave, because they remember how "great" it was when we were independent from the EU (ignoring the obvious rose tinted glasses comment there!!).

Those factors are unlike to change for any particular person with the passage of just two years, as shown by the data,which shows a steady change from Remain to Leave across 65 years of a persons life but a much smaller change between adjacent age groups
It is the simple fact that many, many more people die when aged over 65 as compared to when under 25 (670,333 vs 12,975 for calendar years 16/17) and the fact that you cannot be born at any age above zero years old!