Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[Cheib]

Cobracc said:

Interesting that despite western sanctions.....the Rouble is at a 5year high against the Dollar and Sterling is at a 5year low.

I'd argue the pricing of £ is a more accurate reflection of true value than that of the Rouble !

We are without doubt in a world of unintended consequences at the moment.

[isaldiri]

off_again said:

Without a doubt that favors have been provided and back-handers paid. Erdogan has a lot of issues in Turkey, so being the strongman helps his standing. But ultimately he doesn't want to be the man that stands in the way of this - just wanted to get some concessions and assistance before he caved. He's a massive git, but he's clever and astute - he was always going to cave, just after he got what he wanted.

Selling the kurds down the drain probably was Erdogan's price (but perhaps just as long as he oppresses them suitably quietly without too much visibility) which he knew the rest of NATO would agree to - it isn't him caving in if he got what he wanted first ...

[MOTORVATOR]

EddieSteadyGo said:

I don't think it is propaganda. This is the CCTV showing the cruise missile strikes, tweeted from Ukraine sources. From the geolocation of the CCTV camera (on the related thread) it would seem the missiles didn't directly hit the shopping centre, although you could reasonably argue it was reckless to use that type of missile to target that particularly location with so many civilian targets near by.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1541536257716...

If you take a step back and consider what that actually says it is worrying in truth.

There is no valid target in Ukraine regardless of whether it is military, civilian, government, full of western weapons or anything. When did it become acceptable for Russia to attack what it likes in another country but for it to be unthinkable that anyone attack anything on Russian soil.

It's their country. they are at liberty to do whatever they need to do to defend their sovereign territory. They have every right to have military installations, workshops and stores without an expectation that an outside country would attack it. There are a set of valid targets within Ukraine and they are those that are being used by a criminal occupier or designated terrorist organisation end of story.

Sick of hearing Russia bks of special military operation. It's an illegal invasion and the perpetrators need removing and holding to account.

[CharlesdeGaulle]

^^^ Agreed. The Russian apologists are getting tedious too.

[Bacardi]

I watch a few you-tubers, informative stuff from the likes of Operator Starsky, Denys Davydov (great tubes), and I also watch Inside Russia with this fellow Konstanine. He seems like a nice guy, family man, nice wife and I would be happy to have him round for a few beers and and BBQ. He has experienced life in the west, the USA, so he gets it.

After the attack on the shopping mall, he seems quite crushed. Not all Russians are bad... although a lot of them seem to be...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-t58q5TY2E&li...

[CrutyRammers]

EddieSteadyGo said:

CrutyRammers said:

I didn't misrepresent anything. I asked a question.

If you are going to accuse someone of something, or imply it, don't back down or fold the moment you get challenged by trying to pretend you were just "asking a question".

I don't think you're deliberately shilling for Russia, if that's what you mean. I think you may have read something which somehow makes the mall attack partially excusable as an accident, and in doing so have forgotten the context it happened in.
Propaganda doesn't have to be false, it just needs to move the narrative a certain way. I'd say you've fallen for some of it here.

[andy_s]

EddieSteadyGo said:

I don't think it is propaganda. This is the CCTV showing the cruise missile strikes, tweeted from Ukraine sources. From the geolocation of the CCTV camera (on the related thread) it would seem the missiles didn't directly hit the shopping centre, although you could reasonably argue it was reckless to use that type of missile to target that particularly location with so many civilian targets near by.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1541536257716...

Better visuals: https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/15418949...

"Russian long range assets are currently in the kind of state where they're using 1960s Kh-22 anti-ship missiles for ground attack tasks, with predictable results (murdering civilians in a shopping centre)"

[Apols if pearoast, just nipped in]

[HM-2]

andy_s said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

I don't think it is propaganda. This is the CCTV showing the cruise missile strikes, tweeted from Ukraine sources. From the geolocation of the CCTV camera (on the related thread) it would seem the missiles didn't directly hit the shopping centre, although you could reasonably argue it was reckless to use that type of missile to target that particularly location with so many civilian targets near by.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1541536257716...

Better visuals: https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/15418949...

"Russian long range assets are currently in the kind of state where they're using 1960s Kh-22 anti-ship missiles for ground attack tasks, with predictable results (murdering civilians in a shopping centre)"

[Apols if pearoast, just nipped in]

Kh-22s have circa one tonne warheads; even in the absence of a "direct hit", it's more than simply "reckless" to use one in a situation where you intend to do anything other than level an entire city block.

[andy_s]

jsf said:

MiniMan64 said:

Puggit said:

Finland/Sweden/Turkey sign memorandum about the Scandic states joining NATO.

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/154185016...

That’s a turn up for the books. Are Turkey finally picking a side?

NATO members have been bigging up Erdogens ego for weeks, it was inevitable he would fold once he got that ego boost. Backhanders galore too no doubt.

https://twitter.com/OmerOzkizilcik/status/15418614...

"Turkey, Sweden and Finland signed a deal addressing Turkish security concerns and opening the way for both nations to join NATO. Sweden and Finland will end support to YPG and FETÖ and take harshar [sic] action against PKK and affiliates.

Arms embargo against Turkey has been lifted."

Well played sir, well played.

Edited by andy_s on Tuesday 28th June 23:09

[Bacardi]

Why do EddieSteadyGo and isaldiri seem to be Putin fluffers?

[Desiderata]

Bacardi said:

Why do EddieSteadyGo and isaldiri seem to be Putin fluffers?

Because Emperorburger got booted off?

[HM-2]

Bacardi said:

Why do EddieSteadyGo and isaldiri seem to be Putin fluffers?

No idea. Particularly unsure why Eddie is parroting crap from Russian Telegram channels that's been widely debunked but hey ho.

[off_again]

isaldiri said:

off_again said:

Without a doubt that favors have been provided and back-handers paid. Erdogan has a lot of issues in Turkey, so being the strongman helps his standing. But ultimately he doesn't want to be the man that stands in the way of this - just wanted to get some concessions and assistance before he caved. He's a massive git, but he's clever and astute - he was always going to cave, just after he got what he wanted.

Selling the kurds down the drain probably was Erdogan's price (but perhaps just as long as he oppresses them suitably quietly without too much visibility) which he knew the rest of NATO would agree to - it isn't him caving in if he got what he wanted first ...

Yeah, I have a bunch of friends who are Turkish and did a load of work over there. Great place, great people and loved it. But Erdogan is a massive bellend and has a thing about getting the Kurds. Had a lot of the details explained to me and it doesnt make great listening. And some of the crap he's pulled on stuff in the past - wow....

[B'stard Child]

EddieSteadyGo said:

I don't think it is propaganda. This is the CCTV showing the cruise missile strikes, tweeted from Ukraine sources. From the geolocation of the CCTV camera (on the related thread) it would seem the missiles didn't directly hit the shopping centre, although you could reasonably argue it was reckless to use that type of missile to target that particularly location with so many civilian targets near by.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1541536257716...

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vmyllg/zelensky_published_a_video_showing_that_russia/

[Adam.]

pingu393 said:

Ukraine isn't running out of anything - and it isn't running away.

Am I reading different news to everyone else, all I here is UA losing 100-150 men a day and being outnumbered 15-1 in artillery.

Meanwhile Russia pounds another city to dust and moves on to the next.

I don’t see Russia running out of kit and men as widely predicted (even if both are st quality), unless the West chucks 100s of MLRS type weapons at it rather than 2s and 3s.

I very much welcome links to confirm differently (a single RA tank hitting a mine is joyous but pretty inconsequential).

Edited by Adam. on Wednesday 29th June 01:19

[BikeBikeBIke]

Adam. said:

Am I reading different news to everyone else, all I here is UA losing 100-150 men a day and being outnumbered 15-1 in artillery.

Meanwhile Russia pounds another city to dust and moves on to the next.

I don’t see Russia running out of kit and men as widely predicted (even if both are st quality), unless the West chucks 100s of MLRS type weapons at it rather than 2s and 3s.

I very much welcome links to confirm differently (a single RA tank hitting a mine is joyous but pretty inconsequential).

Edited by Adam. on Wednesday 29th June 01:19

Russia *are* Running out of men because the can't mobilize and Putin's obviously long since realized he can't kill *too* many Russians which is one reason why they are press ganging Ukranians and sending them to die without training.

Running out of kit, that's a different issue. The fact they're helping themselves to ammunition from Belarus suggests they may be low on *some* types of ammunition. They're using old tanks which suggests they're low on tanks. Not sure that's really running out of kit - they can just switch to older stuff. But it does make life harder.

Peruns YouTube vids include detail on Russian manpower.

"Geopolitics Decanted" podcast covers manpower and kit. (The most recent one E14.)

"War on the rocks" podcast too.

Russia have stopped their advance everywhere except one tiny front where their progress is woeful. They've withdrawn from the whole of the North. How can you explain that unless they are running out of *something*? If they had enough of everything they'd be sitting in Kiev and comfortably holding all of Ukraine.

[off_again]

And just to add to this:

https://minusrus.com/en

Or:

https://uacrisis.org/en/total-estimated-losses-of-...

Ok, so they are Ukrainian sources and needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. However, several media sources have indicated that their estimates are probably pretty accurate. So how about the Center for Strategic & International Studies:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-casualties-u...

And just one of multiple released snippets of intercepted Russian communications (yes, I know, seriously they are STILL not using encrypted comms. How bloody stupid do you have to be?):

https://www.yahoo.com/video/intercepted-russian-mi...

And it goes on and on and on. Yes, Ukraine is taking losses of hundreds per day, which is not good. But what is clear is that the Russians are taking significantly more. Estimates seem to be about double for Russian vs Ukrainian losses, which is not good. Ukraine has more recruits but struggles with training and experience. Russia is now bringing back ex-soldiers who are over 50 and dont get to be medically checked.... nice....

And here is a nice article about the depletion of the stocks of Russian missiles and their inability to manufacturer what they are burning through:

https://cepa.org/missed-targets-the-struggles-of-r...

And as others have mentioned, thats before we get to the use of T-62 tanks in the battlefield - seriously, 1960's tanks? WTAF? And the current stocks of Russian armor is something that Perun and others have covered in detail, but they dont have 10's of thousands in stock. They have around 3000 in usable form, THATS IT. They have burned through something like 1500 already in just over 100 days.....And the Ukrainians have been pretty much static on their total number (replaced by European nations or captured Russian), the Russians are getting ground up on the battle field.

However, this means nothing in the face of Russian tactics - keep throwing men at the battle and hope for a breakthrough at some point. 50+ generals, 15 senior Kremlin leaders and tens of thousands dead, but keep throwing those men at the war, it will change, right?

[mondeoman]

Adam. said:

pingu393 said:

Ukraine isn't running out of anything - and it isn't running away.

Am I reading different news to everyone else, all I here is UA losing 100-150 men a day and being outnumbered 15-1 in artillery.

Meanwhile Russia pounds another city to dust and moves on to the next.

I don’t see Russia running out of kit and men as widely predicted (even if both are st quality), unless the West chucks 100s of MLRS type weapons at it rather than 2s and 3s.

I very much welcome links to confirm differently (a single RA tank hitting a mine is joyous but pretty inconsequential).

Edited by Adam. on Wednesday 29th June 01:19

Russia holds less territory now than it did at the end of March, but yeah, Russia are winning.

It took them 3 months to destroy Mariupol. Its taken them 3 months to get Severodonetsk and 3 months to get Potsana ( a village!)

They had to "borrow" 100 box cars of munitions from Belarus because they havent got any.

But yeah, Russia is winning.
They cant get across rivers

[vdn]

Apologies if already posted...

CCTV from around the mall missile strike:



Edit to add: click the picture to see the video.

[TheJimi]

fk me.

Even if the shopping centre wasn't deliberately targeted, it might as well have been - using that calibre of missile in the middle of a civilian area.

The Russians simply don't give a flying fk, that much is glaringly obvious and has been for a long time.