How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 9)
Discussion
jsf said:
It is not all old people that die, if you look at the mortality statistics and then look at the spread of votes in the middle aged sector, you will see hoping its all the old leavers that are dying off is a nonsense argument.
You should also be well aware that the youth vote split post referendum is not as remain as you may think. Jon Snow got a shock when Channel 4 asked this group the question, it was majority leave because they considered the political implications of overturning the referendum result.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCiCcF47RhQYou should also be well aware that the youth vote split post referendum is not as remain as you may think. Jon Snow got a shock when Channel 4 asked this group the question, it was majority leave because they considered the political implications of overturning the referendum result.
that didn't go well for jon snow.
GT119 said:
Elysium said:
Max_Torque said:
Ok, PROVE me wrong: Lets do the numbers
Isn’t the age thing just a logical fallacy? If the proposition is that older people support leave and younger remain there must be segment or range of ages in the middle where we begin to change our views?
Despite older people dying and younger people reaching voting age the age range and distribution of voters will remain constant. We are all aging after all.
Logically, assuming the link to age is statistically robust, older leavers will have been replaced by younger remainers, but there will be a similar number of people in the ‘transitional’ area who have shifted from the middle ground to leave.
There are no polls I can find that show it conclusively. What I can see is that the floating votes are about even between the two. If that is the case then there is a continuous reduction in leave voters ongoing. It hasn’t quite reached the point where it has shifted to remain but would do so in the next year or so.
Tin foil hat on, the ‘Establishment’ would know all of this already, which may be why they are dragging out the date for the second referendum to be as late as possible.
The evidence is clear for anyone to see, Barnier's office visitor book will confirm that, along with Blair's/ Heseltine / Mandelson et al stated aims to do all they can to stop Brexit, and no I haven't got a tin foil hat on.
don'tbesilly said:
I don't think he will accept the deal, and whether he does or not wasn't really the point.
Perhaps you could point out why what Baker talked about in regards the WB will fail, as opposed to just write off such happening?
If as Peston also mentioned and even with just a 3rd vote on the WA, any decision in regards accepting the terms the EU come back with in regards an extension may not happen until the 27th/28th March at an emergency meeting of the EU council, at which point the WB will still be in force.
The WB is not a Bill but an Act - it passed into law in June 2018. It would now need to be repealed and I'm not sure there is really enough time to get a repeal through the Lords and Commons in the face of concerted opposition. Perhaps you could point out why what Baker talked about in regards the WB will fail, as opposed to just write off such happening?
If as Peston also mentioned and even with just a 3rd vote on the WA, any decision in regards accepting the terms the EU come back with in regards an extension may not happen until the 27th/28th March at an emergency meeting of the EU council, at which point the WB will still be in force.
What would happen, for example, if TM's administration fell because the DUP (or JRM and Co) withdrew their support for her?
Does anyone seriously think that Corbyn and most Labour MPs would shore her up rather than pressing for a vote of confidence? I suspect it would suit Corbyn just fine to let the 29th sail past and then point to the Tories as the cause of a no deal exit.
We've now got to the point where the fortnight left to deal with Brexit under the Act could instead be taken up with trying to get a new administration formed.
psi310398 said:
don'tbesilly said:
I don't think he will accept the deal, and whether he does or not wasn't really the point.
Perhaps you could point out why what Baker talked about in regards the WB will fail, as opposed to just write off such happening?
If as Peston also mentioned and even with just a 3rd vote on the WA, any decision in regards accepting the terms the EU come back with in regards an extension may not happen until the 27th/28th March at an emergency meeting of the EU council, at which point the WB will still be in force.
The WB is not a Bill but an Act - it passed into law in June 2018. It would now need to be repealed and I'm not sure there is really enough time to get a repeal through the Lords and Commons in the face of concerted opposition. Perhaps you could point out why what Baker talked about in regards the WB will fail, as opposed to just write off such happening?
If as Peston also mentioned and even with just a 3rd vote on the WA, any decision in regards accepting the terms the EU come back with in regards an extension may not happen until the 27th/28th March at an emergency meeting of the EU council, at which point the WB will still be in force.
What would happen, for example, if TM's administration fell because the DUP (or JRM and Co) withdrew their support for her?
Does anyone seriously think that Corbyn and most Labour MPs would shore her up rather than pressing for a vote of confidence? I suspect it would suit Corbyn just fine to let the 29th sail past and then point to the Tories as the cause of a no deal exit.
We've now got to the point where the fortnight left to deal with Brexit under the Act could instead be taken up with trying to get a new administration formed.
However all the above is what Baker was referring to on the Peston Show, and whilst he never mentioned his show, Peston has subsequently reiterated the fact that Brexit is getting nearer and nearer to happening with no deal whether anyone likes the outcome or not.
don'tbesilly said:
I'm looking forward to the Remain campaign, it will be interesting what the campaign can now present as a reason to Remain a member of the EU given the failing of the first, and the blatant attempts to thwart the outcome from the 1st referendum,
Though I’m not in favour of a 2nd Ref, I agree that it would be a very interesting exercise. Remain will have to get a written “deal” from the EU to define exactly what remain means, a Remain Agreement if you will. There has been much water under the bridge since 2016, harsh words and the EU bureaucracy has continued to grind forward. We cannot go back to where we were, so the conditions will have to be defined.
don'tbesilly said:
Nothing tin foil hat about it, the establishment have been manipulating/engineering the outcome to Brexit since the 24th June 2016, there is no reason for them to stop any time soon.
The evidence is clear for anyone to see, Barnier's office visitor book will confirm that, along with Blair's/ Heseltine / Mandelson et al stated aims to do all they can to stop Brexit, and no I haven't got a tin foil hat on.
Why is the establishment always seen as a bad thing anyway? If they have been in control of the country for hundreds of years and the quality of life we enjoy in the UK is a result of that, why are we trying to look a gift horse in the mouth?The evidence is clear for anyone to see, Barnier's office visitor book will confirm that, along with Blair's/ Heseltine / Mandelson et al stated aims to do all they can to stop Brexit, and no I haven't got a tin foil hat on.
GT119 said:
Why is the establishment always seen as a bad thing anyway? If they have been in control of the country for hundreds of years and the quality of life we enjoy in the UK is a result of that, why are we trying to look a gift horse in the mouth?
I think rather similar lines of argument were put forward at the time of Magna Carta, the Civil War, the Great Reform Act and various franchise extensions (including votes for women) but people just won't listen
GT119 said:
Why is the establishment always seen as a bad thing anyway? If they have been in control of the country for hundreds of years and the quality of life we enjoy in the UK is a result of that, why are we trying to look a gift horse in the mouth?
To be fair many leave voters have a perfectly rational dislike of establishment figures and elites.We need more men of the people like Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg to challenge the status quo.
Max_Torque said:
jsf said:
It is not all old people that die, if you look at the mortality statistics and then look at the spread of votes in the middle aged sector, you will see hoping its all the old leavers that are dying off is a nonsense argument.
.
That ^^ is in my analysis, as i have summated ALL deaths across all age Sets from the .gov data linked.
That includes the people who were born in 1998 and 1999 but have died before they were able to turn 18 (12,975 people actually)
s2art said:
crankedup said:
s2art said:
crankedup said:
Mrr T said:
crankedup said:
Certainly it would appear that many MPs position is at odds with thier electorate, as such Boles has at least recognised this as his own situation. Likely outcome for some will be standing as an independent or Membership of a emerging Political Party, an assortment of odds and sods that fall between the two main Parties.
As others have said, it is the beginning of a transformed Political landscape which will develop over the next two or three GE?
When can we expect John Redwood to stand down?As others have said, it is the beginning of a transformed Political landscape which will develop over the next two or three GE?
Nickgnome said:
alfie2244 said:
Who?
b
hstewie said:
hstewie said:crankedup said:
You. just realise the enormity of the brexit vote, the most important political single event in most people’s life time.
We'll cut hospital funding by 40% but we'll deliver Brexit.We'll cut funding for schools but we'll deliver Brexit.
We'll cut funding for mental health but we'll deliver Brexit.
We'll reduce funding for care for the elderly but we'll deliver Brexit.
We'll increase the basic rate of income tax by 10% but we'll deliver Brexit.
Plenty of things have a far bigger impact on peoples day to day life and how they choose to vote.
The idea that Brexit is the be all and end all is ridiculous to most people.
Having said that I have always understood that some short term pain would be involved in our leaving the EU. Government have just announced increases in Public spending.
crankedup said:
Is this just you making up things like was carried out during the referendum campaign ?
Having said that I have always understood that some short term pain would be involved in our leaving the EU. Government have just announced increases in Public spending.
No, this is me giving you examples of how people typically take things other than Brexit into account when they vote.Having said that I have always understood that some short term pain would be involved in our leaving the EU. Government have just announced increases in Public spending.
Robertj21a said:
Gribs said:
That doesn't take into account that far more leave voters than remain voters have died since the previous vote and a majority of new voters support remain. The stats suggest that if no one changed their vote at all remain would win just due to deaths of leavers. I'd also expect turn out among the young to be far higher than before as campaigning will target them heavily and over the last couple of years they seem to have become generally more politically engaged.
If leave thought they had a reasonable chance of winning they'd be calling for another referendum to avoid May's st deal that is objectively worse than remaining without even the slight possibility of being advantageous in the future like no deal. The majority of people I know are remainers and a large proportion of them prefer no deal over May's.
.If leave thought they had a reasonable chance of winning they'd be calling for another referendum to avoid May's s
t deal that is objectively worse than remaining without even the slight possibility of being advantageous in the future like no deal. The majority of people I know are remainers and a large proportion of them prefer no deal over May's.I really can't believe that some people are still trotting out the silliness about older Leavers vs younger Remainers.....
.
alfie2244 said:
Nickgnome said:
alfie2244 said:
Who?alfie2244 said:
excellent, just like their music.don'tbesilly said:
Elysium said:
don'tbesilly said:
Elysium said:
don'tbesilly said:
There are also rumblings of a 4th if the 3rd doesn't hack it, which will take the decision right to the wire, all the time the Withdrawal Bill sits in the top drawer with a clear plan to thwart any attempts to change/amend it.
Does the EU want British MEP's in the EU parliament?
Manfred Weber certainly doesn't, Verhofstadt certainly won't, how many more share their feelings?
The French are going to be causing enough problems for the EU, ask Macron his thoughts on the EU elections.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1095578/brexit-n...
If the deal somehow gets to a 4th vote it will pass. At that point there will be no time for anything else.Does the EU want British MEP's in the EU parliament?
Manfred Weber certainly doesn't, Verhofstadt certainly won't, how many more share their feelings?
The French are going to be causing enough problems for the EU, ask Macron his thoughts on the EU elections.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1095578/brexit-n...
For that reason it must be crunch time next week. I expect the Bryant amendment to be tabled ruling out further votes on the same deal. I also expect the second referendum motions to be rolled out.
The EU clearly don’t want our MEPs there. Getting rid of Farage is probably one of the only consolations they have from this process.
Just as a matter of interest did you watch the Peston show last week?
Peston had Steve Baker in the chair and Peston asked about the WB, Baker's response was very interesting.
If you didn't watch it you should do, it will be on catch up somewhere.
I don’t think there is any leverage around the withdrawal act though. He may try to filibuster his way to no deal if it is approved next week, but that is doomed to fail.
It is the reason why May has proposed a technical extension to article 50 and on my reading a minister can amend the exit date in the withdrawal act without the need for parliament.
If the deal gets passed next week we will leave the EU on that basis.
Perhaps you could point out why what Baker talked about in regards the WB will fail, as opposed to just write off such happening?
If as Peston also mentioned and even with just a 3rd vote on the WA, any decision in regards accepting the terms the EU come back with in regards an extension may not happen until the 27th/28th March at an emergency meeting of the EU council, at which point the WB will still be in force.
Max_Torque said:
Elysium said:
Isn’t the age thing just a logical fallacy?
No.There is a statistically valid link between a persons Age and how they voted (Leave or Remain) but their is NO direct link. ie it is not actually your Age per-say that sets how you vote, but the human factors that are present in a person of a particular age. ie more "young" people voted to stay for reasons like wanting more freedoms to travel or work aboard when the grown up. "Older" people voted to leave, because they remember how "great" it was when we were independent from the EU (ignoring the obvious rose tinted glasses comment there!!).
Those factors are unlike to change for any particular person with the passage of just two years, as shown by the data,which shows a steady change from Remain to Leave across 65 years of a persons life but a much smaller change between adjacent age groups
It is the simple fact that many, many more people die when aged over 65 as compared to when under 25 (670,333 vs 12,975 for calendar years 16/17) and the fact that you cannot be born at any age above zero years old!
There is a steady supply of new 'old people' and new 'young people'. It is supposition to assume that they will vote differently to their predecessors.
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