The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[Fastdruid]

Trabi601 said:

sidicks said:

Trabi601 said:

Farage mentioned it once or twice, when he was expecting to narrowly lose.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendu...

Which part of that supports your claim that he wanted a 'super majority'?

Surely all he was saying was that a close decision would warrant reconsideration at some further stage and he would campaign on that basis?

Did you not read the bit about a 2/3-1/3 result?

If the result had been 52/48 remain, we'd never have heard the end of it from Farage and the Kippers. He's essentially claimed that he wouldn't have been happy with anything less than a 66.6/33.3 remain - and that any less of a majority result would be 'unfinished business'.

That's not support for a supermajority though. That's just acceptance that if 2/3rds of the country doesn't believe in leaving the EU there is no point keeping on.

A supermajority only works for the "position changing" side. ie if Leave gets any less than 66% it's lost, remain would win with 35% support for example.

[Trabi601]

Fastdruid said:

That's not support for a supermajority though. That's just acceptance that if 2/3rds of the country doesn't believe in leaving the EU there is no point keeping on.

A supermajority only works for the "position changing" side. ie if Leave gets any less than 66% it's lost, remain would win with 35% support for example.

Essentially, it all comes to the same conclusion - Farage would have wanted a massive majority in favour of remain for him to give up the fight. Shame he didn't stick by his principles and repeat this having taking a win by a very small majority.

Cameron is to blame for not stipulating that a large majority would be needed. But he was guilty of complacency, believing the remain vote was in the bag.

[sidicks]

Trabi601 said:

Essentially, it all comes to the same conclusion - Farage would have wanted a massive majority in favour of remain for him to give up the fight. Shame he didn't stick by his principles and repeat this having taking a win by a very small majority.

Cameron is to blame for not stipulating that a large majority would be needed. But he was guilty of complacency, believing the remain vote was in the bag.

Has Farage suggested that no-one should campaign to take us back into the EU at a later date?

[Trabi601]

sidicks said:

Trabi601 said:

Essentially, it all comes to the same conclusion - Farage would have wanted a massive majority in favour of remain for him to give up the fight. Shame he didn't stick by his principles and repeat this having taking a win by a very small majority.

Cameron is to blame for not stipulating that a large majority would be needed. But he was guilty of complacency, believing the remain vote was in the bag.

Has Farage suggested that no-one should campaign to take us back into the EU at a later date?

His supporters are constantly telling us remainers to shut up and accept the result, even if he himself hasn't.

If the vote had gone the other way, he'd have been telling everyone who'd listen that we should have another vote. I think the remain stance has been quite reasonable and subdued compared with the whinging we'd have had from the Brexiteers and Kippers.

[sidicks]

Trabi601 said:

His supporters are constantly telling us remainers to shut up and accept the result, even if he himself hasn't.

Yes, accept the result and stop trying to disrupt and de-rail the Brexit process.

That's entirely different to suggesting that no-one should campaign to take us back into the EU at a later date.

Trabi601 said:

If the vote had gone the other way, he'd have been telling everyone who'd listen that we should have another vote.

And of course we should, at an appropriate future date. where possible, decisions of one generation should not constrain future generations.

Trabi601 said:

I think the remain stance has been quite reasonable and subdued compared with the whinging we'd have had from the Brexiteers and Kippers.

[Trabi601]

sidicks said:

Trabi601 said:

His supporters are constantly telling us remainers to shut up and accept the result, even if he himself hasn't.

Yes, accept the result and stop trying to disrupt and de-rail the Brexit process.

That's entirely different to suggesting that no-one should campaign to take us back into the EU at a later date.

Trabi601 said:

If the vote had gone the other way, he'd have been telling everyone who'd listen that we should have another vote.

And of course we should, at an appropriate future date. where possible, decisions of one generation should not constrain future generations.

Trabi601 said:

I think the remain stance has been quite reasonable and subdued compared with the whinging we'd have had from the Brexiteers and Kippers.

Do you seriously believe that, had the vote been 52/48 to remain, that the Kippers and other Brexiteers would have kept quiet and left it for another generation?

I've already posted a link to Farage saying the fight would continue - so why should Remainers not continue their campaign?

Just wait until 'taking back control' starts to become a reality, and the cries of 'nobody told us this would happen' from many who voted to leave.

[sidicks]

Trabi601 said:

Do you seriously believe that, had the vote been 52/48 to remain, that the Kippers and other Brexiteers would have kept quiet and left it for another generation?

No, neither have I said any such thing.

Trabi601 said:

I've already posted a link to Farage saying the fight would continue - so why should Remainers not continue their campaign?

As already explained, there's quite a difference between trying to disrupt a democratically mandated process and campaigning for support for a different future outcome.

Trabi601 said:

Just wait until 'taking back control' starts to become a reality, and the cries of 'nobody told us this would happen' from many who voted to leave.

[Deptford Draylons]

Trabi601 said:

Do you seriously believe that, had the vote been 52/48 to remain, that the Kippers and other Brexiteers would have kept quiet and left it for another generation?

I've already posted a link to Farage saying the fight would continue - so why should Remainers not continue their campaign?

Just wait until 'taking back control' starts to become a reality, and the cries of 'nobody told us this would happen' from many who voted to leave.

There would have been a week of moaning, then forgotten about by the country at all. Ukip and Farage would continue on, but unlike what we saw recently, there wouldn't have been any MP's backing court cases with a nudge nudge wink wink eye to trying to reverse the result , or openly backing a vote in Parliament to reverse a remain vote, probably because there wouldn't have been a vote to carry on on with the current situation ?

[SKP555]

It would have been at least inconsistent to have required a supermajority to leave when we joined without a referendum at all and stayed in with a simple majority in 1975.

Without mentioning the fact that at no point since the Maastricht Treaty would there have been any possibility of the dramatic constitutional changes entailed in the development of the EU project having that level of support.

It also should apply only to a very clear status quo such as changing a written constitution, not giving a green light to a grand scale political project simply because we've got a trade agreement with it.

Such a principle needs to be consistent not just arbitrarily imposed if the government fears it might not get its way.

[MartynVRS]

What would stop the UK and other countries setting up their own club? In it's simplest form that's all the EU is. A club countries join to get benefits and work together. The idea of the EU isn't bad and initially had good intentions but perhaps it's too broken to fix now?

Perhaps I'm oversimplifying but as a species we should all be working together more. I know NATO is a military alliance but I don't know enough about them to know if they could just do anything else.

[anonymous-user]

MartynVRS said:

What would stop the UK and other countries setting up their own club? In it's simplest form that's all the EU is. A club countries join to get benefits and work together. The idea of the EU isn't bad and initially had good intentions but perhaps it's too broken to fix now?

Perhaps I'm oversimplifying but as a species we should all be working together more. I know NATO is a military alliance but I don't know enough about them to know if they could just do anything else.

There are already loads of different European clubs (as I'm sure you are aware) and many countries are members of multiple European organisations.



This diagram from the treasury report shows the UKs position at the moment very well. It's my understanding that the UK aims to move outwards a few rings to the purple bit next to turkey.

At the moment though you can see the UK is still outside the centre and has/had a unique position there.

[FiF]

MartynVRS said:

What would stop the UK and other countries setting up their own club? In it's simplest form that's all the EU is. A club countries join to get benefits and work together. The idea of the EU isn't bad and initially had good intentions but perhaps it's too broken to fix now?

Perhaps I'm oversimplifying but as a species we should all be working together more. I know NATO is a military alliance but I don't know enough about them to know if they could just do anything else.

Perhaps a European Economic Space

Has been under discussion since the 80's, frequent stumbling block has been the attitude of Brussels-centric EU for, imo, completely selfish reasons, ie it possibly interfered with EU expansionist ambitions and the ever closer union ie single political and fiscal entity.

Frankly many of Europe's citizens would possibly be far more comfortable with that sort of cooperative arrangement than what the EU has become, even many so called Remainers. Just a suggestion.

[davepoth]

El stovey said:

This diagram from the treasury report shows the UKs position at the moment very well. It's my understanding that the UK aims to move outwards a few rings to the purple bit next to turkey.

Reminds me of Dante's Inferno.

Based on what we know (we want to do trade deals outside of the EU) we'll need to be in a further ring out than Turkey.

[paulrockliffe]

sidicks said:

Trabi601 said:

Do you seriously believe that, had the vote been 52/48 to remain, that the Kippers and other Brexiteers would have kept quiet and left it for another generation?

No, neither have I said any such thing.

Trabi601 said:

I've already posted a link to Farage saying the fight would continue - so why should Remainers not continue their campaign?

As already explained, there's quite a difference between trying to disrupt a democratically mandated process and campaigning for support for a different future outcome.

Trabi601 said:

Just wait until 'taking back control' starts to become a reality, and the cries of 'nobody told us this would happen' from many who voted to leave.

Everytime the Farage quote is wheeled out it's taken out of context. The context was that Farage believed the referendum hadn't been run fairly because of things like the Government spending £9m distributing propaganda right before the spending limit came in.

His point was that given that was done to move the percentages a narrow win for remain wouldn't represent a fair result.

Whether you agree with that or not isn't relevant, but his point wasn't that a narrow win was automatically problematic, just that where it was achieved unfairly it would not be representative.

[Puggit]

French Investment bank BNP-Paribas predicting £ to rise 6.5% against € by year-end.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/8491893441413...

http://www.derryjournal.com/news/business/pound-to...

Also saw a report over the weekend (Telegraph I think) saying Pound to rise well against the dollar this year

[Digga]

Puggit said:

French Investment bank BNP-Paribas predicting £ to rise 6.5% against € by year-end.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/8491893441413...

http://www.derryjournal.com/news/business/pound-to...

Also saw a report over the weekend (Telegraph I think) saying Pound to rise well against the dollar this year

Someone reported elsewhere on NP&E that FT running similar story too: https://www.ft.com/content/692768f4-17a3-11e7-a53d...

[Jockman]

Would this be a fair summary of the UK's future interaction with its European neighbours?

[turbobloke]

Puggit said:

French Investment bank BNP-Paribas predicting £ to rise 6.5% against € by year-end.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/8491893441413...

http://www.derryjournal.com/news/business/pound-to...

Also saw a report over the weekend (Telegraph I think) saying Pound to rise well against the dollar this year

Brexit, you gotta love it

[Jockman]

"The Pound will continue to rise against the Euro throughout April, experts predict."

This opens a few cans of worms.....

[Digga]

Jockman said:

Would this be a fair summary of the UK's future interaction with its European neighbours?

It's not unusual for one size to be slightly larger, or hang lower than the other, but that probably needs checking out.

(Other than a ban, no idea how I resisted Photoshopping that.)