The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[confused_buyer]

Jockman said:

"The Pound will continue to rise against the Euro throughout April, experts predict."

This opens a few cans of worms.....

Grudian May 1:

"Exports struggle due to Brexit"

UK exporters are in dire financial trouble after the Pound soared against the Euro due to Brexit. In less than a month it has exploded to €1.23 which has triggered warnings of redundancies, bankruptcies and threats to move production to the EU from UK based manufacturers. Nick Clegg, former leader of the only party which really exists, said "The calamitous negotiations and exit from the EU have had a dire effect with investors seeing the underlying strengths of the UK economy & beginning to invest again and push up the value of the £. We desperately need our connection with the EU so we can be a clear and present basket case along with the Euro denominated countries. At no point did the Leave campaign suggest anyone might still want to buy Sterling after the vote making our exports more expensive and I am calling for another referendum".

[Digga]

confused_buyer said:

Jockman said:

"The Pound will continue to rise against the Euro throughout April, experts predict."

This opens a few cans of worms.....

Grudian May 1:

"Exports struggle due to Brexit"

UK exporters are in dire financial trouble after the Pound soared against the Euro due to Brexit. In less than a month it has exploded to €1.23 which has triggered warnings of redundancies, bankruptcies and threats to move production to the EU from UK based manufacturers. Nick Clegg, former leader of the only party which really exists, said "The calamitous negotiations and exit from the EU have had a dire effect with investors seeing the underlying strengths of the UK economy & beginning to invest again and push up the value of the £. We desperately need our connection with the EU so we can be a clear and present basket case along with the Euro denominated countries. At no point did the Leave campaign suggest anyone might still want to buy Sterling after the vote making our exports more expensive and I am calling for another referendum".

The crux of the whole issue - why Brexit and why a sketchy Euro - is that most people (except the financial industry) are in ignorance or denial about how fked the European banking system is, with particular reference to Italy and the potential contagion it represents.

[Jockman]

Digga said:

It's not unusual for one size to be slightly larger, or hang lower than the other, but that probably needs checking out.

(Other than a ban, no idea how I resisted Photoshopping that.)

Sorry mate but they are normal in size and colour if you're Scottish.

Ask Sturgeon.

[anonymous-user]

Puggit said:

French Investment bank BNP-Paribas predicting £ to rise 6.5% against € by year-end.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/8491893441413...

http://www.derryjournal.com/news/business/pound-to...

Also saw a report over the weekend (Telegraph I think) saying Pound to rise well against the dollar this year

And yet on Bloomberg just now, we had an interview with the currency strategist of an Aussie bank saying it will drop to $1.06. He looked like he was just out of school.

Last week a similar guy from another bank suggested we will see the GBP at $1:36 by mid 2018.

These experts really haven't got a clue one way or the other, their reasoning is pretty borked too when they get asked what their understanding of the political landscape is.

The people who have a much stronger sense of the way things will develop are not the people you see making statements in the press and TV, they are busy keeping their cards to their chest and making money from the volatility.

About the only thing you can say for sure is the rates are going to be going up and down like a wes nickers over the next 2 years. For the £ the majority of the risk has been priced in now, for the Euro I see it as having far more potential for a major shift down.

[FiF]

Seems that Brexit might be harming the earning potential of London centric comedians. It's reported in the Telegraph, is that an approved source these days, that comedians, who have first tried out their material in London, are going out on tour and getting booed and audience walkouts. Brigstocke complains his 20 minute section on Brexit, which mostly revolves around shooting oneself in the foot and they're all racists, has got the worst audience reaction ever. Oh dear, what a shame, poor boy, even more useless comedian than normal.

[Tryke3]

FiF said:

Seems that Brexit might be harming the earning potential of London centric comedians. It's reported in the Telegraph, is that an approved source these days, that comedians, who have first tried out their material in London, are going out on tour and getting booed and audience walkouts. Brigstocke complains his 20 minute section on Brexit, which mostly revolves around shooting oneself in the foot and they're all racists, has got the worst audience reaction ever. Oh dear, what a shame, poor boy, even more useless comedian than normal.

You mean there is stuff outside the m25 ?????

[///ajd]

This can't be right, can it?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ther...

Is this just a technicality?

[Murph7355]

///ajd said:

This can't be right, can it?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ther...

Is this just a technicality?

You'll just have to wait and see. Just like everyone else.

[Sway]

Murph7355 said:

///ajd said:

This can't be right, can it?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ther...

Is this just a technicality?

You'll just have to wait and see. Just like everyone else.

Lots of 'it's believed', and other vacuous qualifying statements. Look at the actual quote and there's not much to be unhappy about - yes there might be a transitional agreement, but she's stating that the future relationship will be understood. That's fine.

What the article really is is a bit of Derrin Brown Neurolinguistic Programming, getting the words "cliff edge" firmly in the minds of the readership - someone has probably realised "hard brexit" has lost it's fear factor...

[zygalski]

///ajd said:

This can't be right, can it?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ther...

Is this just a technicality?

No. It's all going exactly according to plan.

[minimoog]

///ajd said:

This can't be right, can it?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ther...

Is this just a technicality?

I wouldn't worry about it. It's a big world and we're already making lots of new friends to trade with.

[b2hbm]

///ajd said:

This can't be right, can it?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ther...
Is this just a technicality?

Yes, for once I agree entirely with you, it is a technicality.

The EU doesn't sign external trade deals with it's members, well it can't can it ? So by definition you have to be a non-member to have such a deal with the EU and logically that can't happen until we've actually left in 2019.

You might well have the deal written, accepted and printed out but not signed until the day after we've left. Seems quite logical to me, I didn't expect anything less. Did you ?

Would the EU U-turn on signing it after we leave ? Of course they could. Just as we might u-turn on the exit payments they want us to make and those payments will be conditional on all agreements being fulfilled by both sides. Not difficult.....

[Cobnapint]

b2hbm said:

///ajd said:

This can't be right, can it?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ther...
Is this just a technicality?

Yes, for once I agree entirely with you, it is a technicality.

The EU doesn't sign external trade deals with it's members, well it can't can it ? So by definition you have to be a non-member to have such a deal with the EU and logically that can't happen until we've actually left in 2019.

You might well have the deal written, accepted and printed out but not signed until the day after we've left. Seems quite logical to me, I didn't expect anything less. Did you ?

Would the EU U-turn on signing it after we leave ? Of course they could. Just as we might u-turn on the exit payments they want us to make and those payments will be conditional on all agreements being fulfilled by both sides. Not difficult.....

Exactly. Bit of a non-story really.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Cobnapint said:

Exactly. Bit of a non-story really.

Or maybe not.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4381026/Do...

[Burwood]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Cobnapint said:

Exactly. Bit of a non-story really.

Or maybe not.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4381026/Do...

It's hardly a surprise. What did everyone expect, however typical trash rag adds FIVE years for good effect. My issue wasn't immigration anyway so a couple more years of FM isn't a big deal. They won't want to come if we make it financially unattractive.

[Mrr T]

Burwood said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

Cobnapint said:

Exactly. Bit of a non-story really.

Or maybe not.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4381026/Do...

It's hardly a surprise. What did everyone expect, however typical trash rag adds FIVE years for good effect. My issue wasn't immigration anyway so a couple more years of FM isn't a big deal. They won't want to come if we make it financially unattractive.

“What did everyone expect”

I think you will find out the dream leave team, DD,BJ,LF, expected something very different. The government even published a white paper saying something completely different.

It seems while the EU council where silent between the referendum and art 50 the EU council they were doing a lot of planning. Whereas our department for leaving the EU under the chief brexit buffoon was making up slogans and posing for pictures in front of a union jack.

[skahigh]

Mrr T said:

“What did everyone expect”

I think you will find out the dream leave team, DD,BJ,LF, expected something very different. The government even published a white paper saying something completely different.

It seems while the EU council where silent between the referendum and art 50 the EU council they were doing a lot of planning. Whereas our department for leaving the EU under the chief brexit buffoon was making up slogans and posing for pictures in front of a union jack.

Whitepaper

Government whitepaper section 12 said:

Delivering a smooth, mutually beneficial exit will require a coherent and coordinated approach on both sides. We want to avoid a disruptive cliff-edge, and we should consider the need for phasing in any new arrangements we require as the UK and the EU move towards a new partnership.

????

[Mrr T]

skahigh said:

Mrr T said:

“What did everyone expect”

I think you will find out the dream leave team, DD,BJ,LF, expected something very different. The government even published a white paper saying something completely different.

It seems while the EU council where silent between the referendum and art 50 the EU council they were doing a lot of planning. Whereas our department for leaving the EU under the chief brexit buffoon was making up slogans and posing for pictures in front of a union jack.

Whitepaper

Government whitepaper section 12 said:

Delivering a smooth, mutually beneficial exit will require a coherent and coordinated approach on both sides. We want to avoid a disruptive cliff-edge, and we should consider the need for phasing in any new arrangements we require as the UK and the EU move towards a new partnership.

????

Really? You quote one section of the white paper with no context. When the white paper was published all the press statement, briefing etc where clear, this was a 2 year process and in 2019 we would leave the EU with a FTA, no FOML, and the right to make trade deals where we wish.

It now seems we will only leave the EU in 2022. If that’s not a change of mind what is?

Edited by Mrr T on Wednesday 5th April 12:44

[B'stard Child]

Mrr T said:

skahigh said:

Mrr T said:

“What did everyone expect”

I think you will find out the dream leave team, DD,BJ,LF, expected something very different. The government even published a white paper saying something completely different.

It seems while the EU council where silent between the referendum and art 50 the EU council they were doing a lot of planning. Whereas our department for leaving the EU under the chief brexit buffoon was making up slogans and posing for pictures in front of a union jack.

Whitepaper

Really? You quote one section of the white paper with no context. When the white paper was published all the press statement, briefing etc where clear, this was a 2 year process and in 2019 we would leave the EU with a FTA, no FOML, and the right to make trade deals where we wish.

It now seems we will only leave the EU in 2022. If that’s not a change of mind what is?

FFS sort your quote skills out please for the love of Brexit

[anonymous-user]

Mrr T has now reached the same state as slasher, it's sad to see the decline.