How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)
Discussion
wisbech said:
RE the Cummings blogs and videos. I get what he is against, but what is he for to replace it? His blog talks about NASA systems engineering and DARPA research. Which have been lauded for years as best practise. But their relevance to running the UK post Brexit is dubious. And elitist in the extreme (a few technocrats telling everyone what to do works well for Apple, not sure if it will work for running Glasgow)
Engineers fantasise about running countries and economies on ‘rational’ lines, but not aware of any major successes
The business plan seems to be
- leave the EU
- ?
- Profit!
Well I have only read two of his blogs. The one with the link posted here and another on the limitations of politicians and Whitehall with many anecdotes about his time at the DFE.Engineers fantasise about running countries and economies on ‘rational’ lines, but not aware of any major successes
The business plan seems to be
- leave the EU
- ?
- Profit!
As far as I can see his vision of international relations is of a new organisation, based on mutual cooperation, and with more "legitimacy" than the UN by which I take it to mean an organisation for stable democracies only.
In terms of immigration he wishes to end low skilled immigration for a time to stop the developing political polarisation in the UK, while encouraging highly skilled immigration.
For both of these reasons he wishes to leave the EU.
In terms of the future of the UK he wishes us to become a "centre of excellence" in education and thinks this is the main way we can contribute to the first goal above. Yes in terms of leadership he is far better at setting out what is wrong, PPE types in charge with ignorant arrogance, than what can be done to remedy it. However if you worked backwards from his complaints you could see some sensible measures to combat it.
For example, in terms of the civil service, they need to ensure merit based promotions and seek out more scientific minds in their recruitment.
youngsyr said:
There are over 200 road crossings between NI and RoI, there are many more non-road paths etc that are currently totally unpoliced.
In contrast there are around 135 road crossings in total between the EU and its eastern neighbours.
Putting in an enforceable border is going to mean a lot more than "a few more people and few more cameras".
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-i...
This is the problem with Brexit, people on both sides are more than willing to try to mislead people over the flaws in their position.
There are an awful lot of border crossings - however, in light of the CTA, there's really no need to do anything for the majority of them, they're simply unsuitable for any serious attempts at running goods across. In contrast there are around 135 road crossings in total between the EU and its eastern neighbours.
Putting in an enforceable border is going to mean a lot more than "a few more people and few more cameras".
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-i...
This is the problem with Brexit, people on both sides are more than willing to try to mislead people over the flaws in their position.
Every HGV suitable road (iirc) already has ANPR cameras.
With exemptions for 'local' trade as is fairly typical, larger operators likely already using AEO practices already, and the opportunity to inspect away from the border after online submission of consignment docs - it really isn't that onerous to operate a WTO compliant border in Ireland without giving 'cause' (not that I think such a thing is ever justified) for a return to violence.
No border is perfect - even the Korean peninsula has smuggling and people manage to get across.
Sway said:
There are an awful lot of border crossings - however, in light of the CTA, there's really no need to do anything for the majority of them, they're simply unsuitable for any serious attempts at running goods across.
Every HGV suitable road (iirc) already has ANPR cameras.
With exemptions for 'local' trade as is fairly typical, larger operators likely already using AEO practices already, and the opportunity to inspect away from the border after online submission of consignment docs - it really isn't that onerous to operate a WTO compliant border in Ireland without giving 'cause' (not that I think such a thing is ever justified) for a return to violence.
No border is perfect - even the Korean peninsula has smuggling and people manage to get across.
Honestly, I couldn't care less about a bit, or even a lot, of smuggling across that border, Sway. However, what's the WTO and other countries' positions on it? Every HGV suitable road (iirc) already has ANPR cameras.
With exemptions for 'local' trade as is fairly typical, larger operators likely already using AEO practices already, and the opportunity to inspect away from the border after online submission of consignment docs - it really isn't that onerous to operate a WTO compliant border in Ireland without giving 'cause' (not that I think such a thing is ever justified) for a return to violence.
No border is perfect - even the Korean peninsula has smuggling and people manage to get across.
Will they really be satisfied with unpoliced roads going from RoI to NI after Brexit?
If so, then there's no issue with the border. As you say, things will continue as they do now.
The fact that it's a red line for a lot of politicians suggest it's much more complicated than that though?
youngsyr said:
Sway said:
There are an awful lot of border crossings - however, in light of the CTA, there's really no need to do anything for the majority of them, they're simply unsuitable for any serious attempts at running goods across.
Every HGV suitable road (iirc) already has ANPR cameras.
With exemptions for 'local' trade as is fairly typical, larger operators likely already using AEO practices already, and the opportunity to inspect away from the border after online submission of consignment docs - it really isn't that onerous to operate a WTO compliant border in Ireland without giving 'cause' (not that I think such a thing is ever justified) for a return to violence.
No border is perfect - even the Korean peninsula has smuggling and people manage to get across.
Honestly, I couldn't care less about a bit, or even a lot, of smuggling across that border, Sway. However, what's the WTO and other countries' positions on it? Every HGV suitable road (iirc) already has ANPR cameras.
With exemptions for 'local' trade as is fairly typical, larger operators likely already using AEO practices already, and the opportunity to inspect away from the border after online submission of consignment docs - it really isn't that onerous to operate a WTO compliant border in Ireland without giving 'cause' (not that I think such a thing is ever justified) for a return to violence.
No border is perfect - even the Korean peninsula has smuggling and people manage to get across.
Will they really be satisfied with unpoliced roads going from RoI to NI after Brexit?
If so, then there's no issue with the border. As you say, things will continue as they do now.
The fact that it's a red line for a lot of politicians suggest it's much more complicated than that though?
Look at borders around the world - major routes are 'properly' controlled (with massively varying levels of the process being conducted at the border point), whilst thousands of miles are monitored for pervasive activity yet no real controls due to the levels being absolutely tiny.
Especially when people can freely move - what's the point in putting anything on a tiny road unsuitable for HGV traffic? Or footpaths? No appreciable volumes of goods are going to be travelling across the border along those!
The red line is a complete distraction. I, and many others who are very familiar with the rules concerning border transits of goods, can see that. The fact the only permissible 'solution' to the backstop (and remember - the risk is never presented as WTO default, it's always the threat of a return to violence, which is rather telling in itself) is to ensure that the UK can never compete with European business is also rather telling.
Ghibli said:
Maybe someone can explain how an ANPR camera can stop a lorry load of meat from America labelled as British meat crossing the Irish border.
You do know that Ireland is a major beef exporter, and is thus highly unlikely to be importing British beef? But let's suppose that you are correct and the meat is going to be smuggled in.... which EC plant number will appear on the packing and paperwork?
Given that most retailers and processors operate full traceability schemes, how is anyone going to hide 20,000kgs of American meat in a supply chain? (Remember that the incidences of a few horses being mixed into the irish meat supply chain was spotted pretty quickly)
Many American beef growers use HGPs, these are easily spotted during the lab testing. Anyone silly enough to try to send this meat to Ireland (or anywhere else for that matter) would be clocked pretty quickly.
These are serious questions, can you answer them?
Ghibli said:
Maybe someone can explain how an ANPR camera can stop a lorry load of meat from America labelled as British meat crossing the Irish border.
The same way ANPR prevents hundreds of lorries of horse meat labelled as beef crossing Europe to enter our food processing supply chain. Ghibli said:
Maybe someone can explain how an ANPR camera can stop a lorry load of meat from America labelled as British meat crossing the Irish border.
What if it’s American chlorinated chicken from the UK heading into the EU? This is marketed as a Brexit benefit but it doesn’t meet EU standards. How does an ANPR camera detect this?Sway said:
Ghibli said:
Maybe someone can explain how an ANPR camera can stop a lorry load of meat from America labelled as British meat crossing the Irish border.
The same way ANPR prevents hundreds of lorries of horse meat labelled as beef crossing Europe to enter our food processing supply chain. Digga said:
Customs declarations cross-reference to vehicle registrations. It is very simple. No different to the present methods of tracking shipping containers to and from RoW really.
That's assuming you have what you say you are carrying in the lorry. Of course being an EU member we wouldn't be able to import anything that would breach regulation.Digga said:
Sway said:
Ghibli said:
Maybe someone can explain how an ANPR camera can stop a lorry load of meat from America labelled as British meat crossing the Irish border.
The same way ANPR prevents hundreds of lorries of horse meat labelled as beef crossing Europe to enter our food processing supply chain. Don't mention POAO additional checks - few of which occur at borders.
Ghibli said:
Digga said:
Customs declarations cross-reference to vehicle registrations. It is very simple. No different to the present methods of tracking shipping containers to and from RoW really.
That's assuming you have what you say you are carrying in the lorry. Of course being an EU member we wouldn't be able to import anything that would breach regulation.You're completely ignorant on this subject. Exacerbated by you presenting ANPR being the only mechanism of control for Products of Animal Origin.
Ridgemont said:
It’s an interesting one: I have family on both sides of the border.
It would be a big deal if one came back; politically, culturally and operationally.
And yet.
No one wants one. Neither the U.K. (hence the apparent red line), ROI, duppers or EU.
But the fact is that the EU *has* to either have the hard border or a union of some sorts with NI otherwise it fails to control its border to the SM and CU. It’s a problem for the EU and it’s a fault line that the EU has been doing it’s damnednest to turn into a U.K. issue: you are leaving, tell us how you intend to resolve this situation? The U.K. unsurprisingly has tried max fac, and various alternatives that look at carving up the U.K. economic area. The former is vetoed by EU and the latter by Parliament. So arguably this becomes the EU’s problem.
I’m interested as to how this plays out. Apparently Varadkar has had calls this weekend with Merkel where she was asking what preparation the Irish are putting in place for a hard border. Varadkar refused to clarify.
And that is because when all is said and done there is no will on the ground to put an hard border in place.
It’s going to be interesting to see how that plays out if no deal were to occur.
that's how I see it too. Its the EU that wants a hard boarder not the ROI or the UK/NI Its their issue not ours. It would be a big deal if one came back; politically, culturally and operationally.
And yet.
No one wants one. Neither the U.K. (hence the apparent red line), ROI, duppers or EU.
But the fact is that the EU *has* to either have the hard border or a union of some sorts with NI otherwise it fails to control its border to the SM and CU. It’s a problem for the EU and it’s a fault line that the EU has been doing it’s damnednest to turn into a U.K. issue: you are leaving, tell us how you intend to resolve this situation? The U.K. unsurprisingly has tried max fac, and various alternatives that look at carving up the U.K. economic area. The former is vetoed by EU and the latter by Parliament. So arguably this becomes the EU’s problem.
I’m interested as to how this plays out. Apparently Varadkar has had calls this weekend with Merkel where she was asking what preparation the Irish are putting in place for a hard border. Varadkar refused to clarify.
And that is because when all is said and done there is no will on the ground to put an hard border in place.
It’s going to be interesting to see how that plays out if no deal were to occur.
Edited by Ridgemont on Monday 21st January 01:20
If we leave on WTO then we are not putting in a hard boarder, as other have said transport can still be monitored electronically/checked away from the boarder.
Sort of off topic, and in the style of a DS anecdote, but let's face it regarding borders, even at the height of the Cold War, British military personnel used to cross the border into the East and drive around undertaking reconnaissance and intelligence missions. OK there used to be a chase or two back over to the West, but skilled 'rally driving and accurate navigation' dealt with it, knowing the unmarked exits off roads onto tiny tracks that were definite go-ers being one of the keys. And that was, supposedly, a hard bricks, mortar, concrete and bloody miles of barbed wire border, and dogs, don't forget the dogs, and the choppers. Look up BRIXMIS.
Sway said:
Really? We wouldn't be able to import fraudulently labelled meat?
You're completely ignorant on this subject. Exacerbated by you presenting ANPR being the only mechanism of control for Products of Animal Origin.
The trouble is Sway, it's you that it ignorant. At present we trade as an EU country. When we leave we will be trading from outside the EU yet we will have an open border. You're completely ignorant on this subject. Exacerbated by you presenting ANPR being the only mechanism of control for Products of Animal Origin.
What if the EU don't want to risk us exporting non regulated products to them? Why do you think they are suggesting moving the border to the Irish Sea?
To simplify, how much chlorinated chicken do we currently Import? If none why not.
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