CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 2)

[markyb_lcy]

EddieSteadyGo said:

You are doing some good work sifting through these documents. Might be worth tweeting/emailing that info to a few sympathetic journalists and see if they pick it up.

+1 to that.

Enlightening stuff this. Deserves to be disseminated more widely.

[Elysium]

Quite a strong front page in The Times tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1257792759160...

[markyb_lcy]

Elysium said:

Quite a strong front page in The Times tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1257792759160...

Indeed.

She was way out of Ferguson's league.

[ant1973]

From the paper on the 25th

The fewer cases that happen as a result of the policies enacted, the larger subsequent
waves are expected to be when policies are lifted. As we cannot predict how policies will
change, the terms “Reasonable Worst Case” and “Optimistic Scenario” are only in relation
to the number of deaths seen in a first wave.

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-ad...

Avoid the second wave...

Imperial’s and Warwick’s models both gave around 10,000 deaths in the first wave of an
optimistic scenario. Peaks times were slightly different as a result of different assumptions
of the time lag between infections and deaths. For consistency, it was decided to use
Imperial’s good compliance scenario as an optimistic scenario for planning purposes.

Edited by ant1973 on Wednesday 6th May 00:06

[TurnedEmo]

Elysium said:

Quite a strong front page in The Times tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1257792759160...

As the sane people here have been saying for a couple of weeks - cut the furlough, and my other one is threaten the income tax increases. That will swing public opinion in a big way.

[OldGermanHeaps]

HorneyMX5 said:

I think that’s a bit harsh, I’m on furlough and I didn’t ask to be. I’d rather be at work and know that I still have a job and I think that applies to most people. The sort that are treating it as jolly nice holiday and it’s nothing to worry about are in the minority, they just make a lot of noise about it. Most of us are quietly sh**ting ourselves about unemployment.

Well instead of quietly stting yourself can I ask you raise your voice a bit, along with anyone else who is concerned as to how this is going, because those who are vocal are being shouted down constantly, we need a bit more backup please.

[Elysium]

That’s enough.

Lockdown ends for me tomorrow.

[Ntv]

UK government have been an
absolute disgrace in this crisis

Where IS Boris ffs. Why isn’t he leading from the front.

[Ntv]

Elysium said:

That’s enough.

Lockdown ends for me tomorrow.

I’m amazed you’ve observed it. I haven’t. But of course the impact is there due to everything else being fked

[TurnedEmo]

Elysium said:

That’s enough.

Lockdown ends for me tomorrow.

We had a Covid employee forum today - I've presented some facts regarding fatality rates etc., to my representative and asked that he, in no uncertain terms, gets some clarity from the business on releasing me from my bloody tiny little box room office at home, where I'm gradually losing the plot as well as seeing deals which help secure the company future slip away because I'm not allowed to go and meet the CEOs.

[sim72]

Ntv said:

UK government have been an
absolute disgrace in this crisis

Where IS Boris ffs. Why isn’t he leading from the front.

This is a Prime Minister who f***ed off to a country house for half of February and only returned to London to host a Tory party fundraising event. A Prime Minister whose own SPADs admit "doesn't do weekends" and boasted of shaking hands with coronavirus victims (a lie, incidentally, there were no CV patients at KGH at the time) to show everyone there was nothing to be worried about.

Why the surprise?

[Ntv]

sim72 said:

Ntv said:

UK government have been an
absolute disgrace in this crisis

Where IS Boris ffs. Why isn’t he leading from the front.

This is a Prime Minister who f***ed off to a country house for half of February and only returned to London to host a Tory party fundraising event. A Prime Minister whose own SPADs admit "doesn't do weekends" and boasted of shaking hands with coronavirus victims (a lie, incidentally, there were no CV patients at KGH at the time) to show everyone there was nothing to be worried about.

Why the surprise?

Boris and his tedious bluster. It’s all worn thin now. He doesn’t appear to believe the idiotic verbiage any more. The man has shown himself to be nothing but a common coward

[Fubar1977]

OldGermanHeaps said:

HorneyMX5 said:

I think that’s a bit harsh, I’m on furlough and I didn’t ask to be. I’d rather be at work and know that I still have a job and I think that applies to most people. The sort that are treating it as jolly nice holiday and it’s nothing to worry about are in the minority, they just make a lot of noise about it. Most of us are quietly sh**ting ourselves about unemployment.

Well instead of quietly stting yourself can I ask you raise your voice a bit, along with anyone else who is concerned as to how this is going, because those who are vocal are being shouted down constantly, we need a bit more backup please.

You put it better than I did OldGermanHeaps. My original post may have come across a bit on the harsh side to be honest but all the noise is coming from the LockDown advocates and the Angry Karens whilst those of us who are, frankly, terrified for our future are drowned out or cast as "Plague Spreaders" who want everyone to die apparently.

I just want some fking rational balance in all this. Is that really unreasonable?

[isaldiri]

Elysium said:

Still reading through the additional SAGE docs. This is a shocker:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

SPI-M said:

It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less strict social distancing measures could plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity. These would need to be in place for at least most of a year. Under such as policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing measures.

16th March was the date the 500k death imperial model was published. That day a SAGE subgroup was debating a full year of restrictions, with strict social distancing for 6 months.

Then one week later Johnson announced a 3 week lockdown.

Sheer lies. No one would have accepted what was being proposed, so the Govt kept it secret from us.

I'm not entirely sure I get the outrage. What exactly is the lie and the shocker about that? SPI-M were asked to model something. They did. I don't see what the big deal is.

[gazapc]

Elysium said:

This is the big one:

1st April - realisation that R was already below 1 and that it had begun to reduce Mid March. This document is also heavily redacted:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

fkers. All this and it was already going down.

Voted Conservative at the last 3 elections, fan of Boris but the handling of this since he went into hospital was been poor. I'm really hoping and praying we are going to get some sensible news on Sunday but I'm now as pessimistic as i've ever been about the whole thing.

Also, as rightly pointed out by others, the 5 'pillars' are the wrong way round - they should be justification for having to maintain/impose the lockdown rather than justification for releasing it.

[17263524]

Fubar1977 said:

17263524 said:

Clueless.

Aaah. You`re the one who posted the Coronacircus Bill Gates link so I can safely ignore you and not miss anything even remotely worthwhile.

And thank you for your useful, insightful reply.

You really are stupid.

[sim72]

Fubar1977 said:

You put it better than I did OldGermanHeaps. My original post may have come across a bit on the harsh side to be honest but all the noise is coming from the LockDown advocates and the Angry Karens whilst those of us who are, frankly, terrified for our future are drowned out or cast as "Plague Spreaders" who want everyone to die apparently.

You can't blame Angry Karen really. Angry Karen has been shut in her house for seven weeks but is still watching a 5pm briefing every day saying that hundreds of people are still dying. Angry Karen therefore computes that anyone who is outside must be spreading the virus, because otherwise we'd have sorted this by now. The nuances of the issue are beyond Angry Karen, but let's face it, everyone who Angry Karen knows agrees with her, so she must be right (see also: Jeremy Corbyn is a terrible threat to the country).

[Not-The-Messiah]

Ntv said:

sim72 said:

Ntv said:

UK government have been an
absolute disgrace in this crisis

Where IS Boris ffs. Why isn’t he leading from the front.

This is a Prime Minister who f***ed off to a country house for half of February and only returned to London to host a Tory party fundraising event. A Prime Minister whose own SPADs admit "doesn't do weekends" and boasted of shaking hands with coronavirus victims (a lie, incidentally, there were no CV patients at KGH at the time) to show everyone there was nothing to be worried about.

Why the surprise?

Boris and his tedious bluster. It’s all worn thin now. He doesn’t appear to believe the idiotic verbiage any more. The man has shown himself to be nothing but a common coward

The first thing I thought after his brush with death was he's now going to be useless and the worse person for the job. A few days later he had a new kid he then became even worse.

[EddieSteadyGo]

Sensing a bit of a mood change on twitter. Not just from the 'usual suspects', but just seen for example Evan Davis tweet the article we discussed here the other day regarding the scientific paper that it looks like herd immunity is likely to be reached well below the 60-70% level required for a vaccine.

A few others looking more carefully at the situation in Stockholm and noticing infection rates are slowing as the virus finds it more difficult to find new hosts.

As well as lots of others sticking the boot into Ferguson.

Quite interesting. Of course, this isn't representative of the broader national mood, but it can give a feel for the direction many influential people are thinking.

Changing the furlough rules will also be a very big step, as was mentioned earlier.

[Andy888]

sim72 said:

You can't blame Angry Karen really. Angry Karen has been shut in her house for seven weeks but is still watching a 5pm briefing every day saying that hundreds of people are still dying. Angry Karen therefore computes that anyone who is outside must be spreading the virus, because otherwise we'd have sorted this by now. The nuances of the issue are beyond Angry Karen, but let's face it, everyone who Angry Karen knows agrees with her, so she must be right (see also: Jeremy Corbyn is a terrible threat to the country).

Any intelligent person unlucky enough to be called Karen these days must be really pissed off! Right up there with anyone called Alexa.