Brexit Poll 1/2/16

[plasticpig]

FiF said:

Don't forget that only 9 nations support the remaining 19. Of those 9 nations there are some who are only just nett contributors, or whose contributions are relatively minor compared to the big hitters. Which in turn leads to finding that the EU is principally supported by merely a handful, being generous.

If Britain exited and all our payment ceased, unlikely, but say it did, then nations such as Italy, France and Spain would have to increase their contributions by a quarter maybe. Can you see those nations doing that, because I can't.

So would most of the burden fall on Germany? Would the German citizens support that after their recent experiences? Not convinced.

Whats the point of exiting if we don't save money? I thought the whole idea was that we were supposed to save £40 million a day or whatever the amount is (no one seems to agree). Why wouldn't our payment cease if we left?

[don4l]

plasticpig said:

Whats the point of exiting if we don't save money? I thought the whole idea was that we were supposed to save £40 million a day or whatever the amount is (no one seems to agree). Why wouldn't our payment cease if we left?

There are many possible scenarios when we exit. We could end up in EFTA or the EEA.

I'm confident enough about Britain's strength to feel that we should make a clean break. So, if I had my way, we woundn't make any significant payments.

In fact, if I were prime minister, I would be tempted to charge the EU for the right to trade with the UK. After all, the EU benefits from such trade and we lose. (This is tongue in cheek.)

[FiF]

plasticpig said:

Whats the point of exiting if we don't save money? I thought the whole idea was that we were supposed to save £40 million a day or whatever the amount is (no one seems to agree). Why wouldn't our payment cease if we left?

Our payments would reduce considering the most likely scenario.

The logic for this is, contrary to the claims if certain groups, given the level of entanglement over 40 years that to give a stable, controlled, economically neutral exit with a soft landing the most likely scenario which can be organised in the time is the EEA agreement which EFTA countries Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein enjoy. This means that many EU regulations would not apply, but that's another discussion, but some would. We would have to make some contributions to the EU budget, plus we are already legally tied in supporting some programmes with a 7 year funding cycle.

If you look at the payments that Norway makes it's about half per capita of our funding, Iceland is much less because they choose not to support as many programmes as Norway chooses to do , eg research programmes being but one example.

So what I'm saying, is that in my opinion, and that of other Brexit realists, we will not stop all payments to the EU, but they will be significantly reduced in the short term. Longer term of course depends on further decisions.

Hope that explains my original comment.

Anyone, and there are some, who say we can just flick the V's at the EU, stop all payments, stop all immigrants, slash and burn all regulations are living in cloud cuckoo land.

[Scuffers]

I can see zero justification for the UK to pay anything.

our trade deficit alone with the EU is payment enough.

we simply do not need a FTA with the EU, yes, it would be better if we could get one, but we 100% don't NEED to get it, and it's certainly not worth paying for it.

as said, Germany faces a disaster if we leave, they will be left trying to financially prop up the rest of the EU and with their own (self-inflicted) migrant crisis draining public funds.

if they then try the trade war approach, they stand to lose billions in trade to the UK, that could quite easily push their economy over the edge.

Yes, it would not be great for the UK, but put bluntly, we will survive and recover, as none of our imports from the EU are irreplaceable, other non-EU countries will be clamouring to sell to us, all that we lose out on is german branded goods like Merc/BMW/VAG/etc. and being honest, not having them available for sale here is not the end of the world.

[V8 Fettler]

PRTVR said:

V8 Fettler said:

Has either side issued a credible business plan yet?

I would be interested if the EU has a costed plan if the UK leaves, they will have to make major changes if the lose the second biggest contributor.

Unfortunately, the emotionalists are setting the agenda, so we'll be expected to vote with little in the way of firm facts or forecasts to aid the decision making process.

[danllama]

I'm curious how much of a finger the Germans have on the pulse of the situation here, public feeling etc...

Can anybody provide links to German news/media of predictions, assumptions, general feeling etc?

[s2art]

Scuffers said:

I can see zero justification for the UK to pay anything.

our trade deficit alone with the EU is payment enough.

we simply do not need a FTA with the EU, yes, it would be better if we could get one, but we 100% don't NEED to get it, and it's certainly not worth paying for it.

as said, Germany faces a disaster if we leave, they will be left trying to financially prop up the rest of the EU and with their own (self-inflicted) migrant crisis draining public funds.

if they then try the trade war approach, they stand to lose billions in trade to the UK, that could quite easily push their economy over the edge.

Yes, it would not be great for the UK, but put bluntly, we will survive and recover, as none of our imports from the EU are irreplaceable, other non-EU countries will be clamouring to sell to us, all that we lose out on is german branded goods like Merc/BMW/VAG/etc. and being honest, not having them available for sale here is not the end of the world.

There are some projects we would want to continue funding. Some research projects for instance. But it would be a small fraction of our bill today.

[funkyrobot]

don'tbesilly said:

funkyrobot said:

darrenw said:

I was tempted to start a new thread on this but (a) I've never started a thread in all my time lurking here and (b) I'm sure people will complain that there are enough threads about all this already... But does anyone have any links to support either in or out from a petrolhead perspective? If we stay in, are we more or less likely to have to keep mileage logs and things whenever we take an old car out for a drive? (I think this is how it works for certain classes of car in Germany?). Is our collective passion for mad modified cars likely to be extinguished as everything is heading toward becoming more and more regulated in favour of throwing old stuff away to prop up the new? Will our MOT tests (And BIVA/IVA etc) become "harmonised" with an overall EU system? Noise regulations at race tracks?

I know there are no definite answers. But educated and informed opinions are welcome...

I'm voting out either way, no question. But answers to these questions and others like it may be of help to others who are undecided

RAC have said petrol prices will rise if we leave.

I think you'll find it was that charming twerp from the AA that came up with that nonsense.

The RAC called the twerp out on it.

Perhaps Edmund King should go on multiple benders and join the 'alternative' AA, he might start talking sense!

http://www.spaldingtoday.co.uk/news/business/busin...

[Scuffers]

Read the link and you get this:

scalding press said:

Two-car families in the UK could pay around £8 a month more to fill up their cars if Britain leaves the EU, the RAC has claimed.

The motoring organisation calculated that a 20 per cent fall in the value of sterling – as US banking giant Goldman Sachs has predicted could happen after a Brexit vote – may increase the average price of a litre of petrol by around four pence.

Those nice people at Goldman Sachs.

[turbobloke]

Scuffers said:

Read the link and you get this:

scalding press said:

Two-car families in the UK could pay around £8 a month more to fill up their cars if Britain leaves the EU, the RAC has claimed.

The motoring organisation calculated that a 20 per cent fall in the value of sterling – as US banking giant Goldman Sachs has predicted could happen after a Brexit vote – may increase the average price of a litre of petrol by around four pence.

Those nice people at Goldman Sachs.

Looking back were these not some of the people who predicted doom if we didn’t join the euro?

Looking forwards...working towards greater self-determination, democracy and away from subservience has often had a price, if that report is accurate it's a small one (given the world kept turning at £1.40 per litre) and you have to suspect it would only be temporary. Goldman Sachs ought to look at the EZ going titsup and what the impact would be if we're not out of the immediate blast zone trading even more with RoW.

[limpsfield]

Scuffers said:

Read the link and you get this:

scalding press said:

Two-car families in the UK could pay around £8 a month more to fill up their cars if Britain leaves the EU, the RAC has claimed.

The motoring organisation calculated that a 20 per cent fall in the value of sterling – as US banking giant Goldman Sachs has predicted could happen after a Brexit vote – may increase the average price of a litre of petrol by around four pence.

Those nice people at Goldman Sachs.

I wouldn't put too much store by banks making predictions

Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six 'Top Trade' Calls for 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/...

[TDIPLC]

There seems to be a bit of excitement from the "remain" camp in relation to the letter in The Times from 36 big firms in the FTSE100.

But doesn't that mean that 74% don't want to remain in the EU?...

[vanordinaire]

TDIPLC said:

There seems to be a bit of excitement from the "remain" camp in relation to the letter in The Times from 36 big firms in the FTSE100.

But doesn't that mean that 74% don't want to remain in the EU?...

Eh? 64% surely?

[sealtt]

TDIPLC said:

There seems to be a bit of excitement from the "remain" camp in relation to the letter in The Times from 36 big firms in the FTSE100.

But doesn't that mean that 74% don't want to remain in the EU?...

By that logic, the fact that 0 big firms wrote a letter in The Times supporting the exit camp means that the other 110% want to remain in the EU.

[CaptainSlow]

I don't know why there is such panic on the threat of lost jobs. In reality, the UK could be more competitive after Brexit.

If there were fewer jobs there would also be fewer people. It may also give UK citizens the ability to be able to afford a house in the area they grew up in.

[Driller]

I strongly believe that the UK is better off out of the EU.

It's never going to happen though. The whole thing is a fix by the Powers that Be no matter what the public want.

They'll cook the books.

[Digga]

Driller said:

I strongly believe that the UK is better off out of the EU.

It's never going to happen though. The whole thing is a fix by the Powers that Be no matter what the public want.

They'll cook the books.

I think that, as far as the EU represents a command and control model that gives the illusion of democracy (for most sheeple) you;re sadly, probably, not too far of the mark. Certainly, listening to the behind the scenes strong-arming of Greece, you begin to wonder what these people would stop at in order to preserve their precious Empire.

[TDIPLC]

vanordinaire said:

Eh? 64% surely?

Stands in the corner with dunces hat...

[Mario149]

Anyone else noticed that the poll initially showed ~70% voting to leave for the first week it was up but is now showing ~50%

[turbobloke]

Mario149 said:

Anyone else noticed that the poll initially showed ~70% voting to leave for the first week it was up but is now showing ~50%

Yes it was certainly well above 50% though if we add in 'leaning towards leave' it's still over 70%.