How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[ORD]

dandarez said:

As a Leaver, I'm intrigued.

What sensible reasons would those be then?

Can you list them 'all'.

Please!

I've explained at length in earlier posts what I think is the coherent pro-Leave argument. In short:
(1) The EU is grossly inefficient and undemocratic. It is bad at its job.

(2) The 21st century poses very real challenges and threats to the most advanced economies.

(3) The EU will probably respond badly, but almost certainly slowly to those challenges.

(4) We stand a better chance of dealing with them as a single nation with more agility.

I get it. I just don't quite buy it because the UK is no less incompetent than the EU, and because the way to make a success of Brexit would be to go for a more agile and lower cost economy focussed on high-value goods and services...which is literally the opposite of where we look to be going and literally the opposite of what Northern Brexiteers want!

[Tuna]

ORD said:

I get it.

If you get it, why do you keep putting up straw man arguments for why it's a 'stupid' decision? If you argued purely on the ability of the UK to deliver (and then with some evidence), we'd have a much better discussion.

It's possible that the overall democratic result reflects a better understanding than you believe - picking out extreme views that can easily be deconstructed does a huge disservice to both sides of the discussion.

[Robertj21a]

ORD said:

I've explained at length in earlier posts what I think is the coherent pro-Leave argument. In short:
(1) The EU is grossly inefficient and undemocratic. It is bad at its job.

(2) The 21st century poses very real challenges and threats to the most advanced economies.

(3) The EU will probably respond badly, but almost certainly slowly to those challenges.

(4) We stand a better chance of dealing with them as a single nation with more agility.

I get it. I just don't quite buy it because the UK is no less incompetent than the EU, and because the way to make a success of Brexit would be to go for a more agile and lower cost economy focussed on high-value goods and services...which is literally the opposite of where we look to be going and literally the opposite of what Northern Brexiteers want!

Can you define a Northern Brexiteer please.

[///ajd]

Dog Star said:

I’ve voted UKIP many times, I don’t particularly like the institution that is the EU and I’m a big fan of Farage, however this has gone on long enough. Time to stop this farce.

Ultimately next to nobody in the UK is going to be better off or see any changes for the better.

If there was some vision or ultimate outcome from all this then fair enough - there wasn’t and there still isn’t.

The lies and scaremongering from both sides in the referendum raised serious doubts about the legitimacy of the result - imagine if it was an election in Zimbabwe!

Are you a brexiteer where regrets their vote? Could be mistaken but it sounds like it.

[Tryke3]

I agree, vote leave was because of immigration

My friends, hated that polish were coming over and doing better than them in short period if time and the old muslim scare. This one i dont really understand, people are actually thinking that the EU should be shooting them at sea or something ?



Sad really

[///ajd]

Some very intriguing inputs above.

Putting tariffs at 0 for imports doesn’t solve the irish border - what about the external tariffs the EU would apply the other way? With no border UK exports could flow unchecked into the EU via NI>Eire. Why would the EU allow this?

[PurpleMoonlight]

///ajd said:

Some very intriguing inputs above.

Putting tariffs at 0 for imports doesn’t solve the irish border - what about the external tariffs the EU would apply the other way? With no border UK exports could flow unchecked into the EU via NI>Eire. Why would the EU allow this?

I thought you better understood how tariffs work.

[Dr Jekyll]

ORD said:

'The point of Brexit is trade'. Now I've heard it all. We are so concerned about increasing trade that we want to leave the biggest free trade area in the World.

It isn't a free trade area, it's a customs union, that's the whole point. It forces us to put unnecessary tariffs on RTO imports thereby pushing consumer prices up.

[PRTVR]

Dr Jekyll said:

ORD said:

'The point of Brexit is trade'. Now I've heard it all. We are so concerned about increasing trade that we want to leave the biggest free trade area in the World.

It isn't a free trade area, it's a customs union, that's the whole point. It forces us to put unnecessary tariffs on RTO imports thereby pushing consumer prices up.

And charges us a not inconsiderable amount of money for the "free" trade.

[///ajd]

PurpleMoonlight said:

I thought you better understood how tariffs work.

I assumed part of the reason for border checks is to check goods have the correct tariffs declared/applied - e.g. preparations of meat/fish (18% EU external tariff).

I assume the EU will want to apply some monitoring of this if we exit teh SM/CU, and that could include the Eire border, could it not?

[PurpleMoonlight]

Dr Jekyll said:

It isn't a free trade area, it's a customs union, that's the whole point. It forces us to put unnecessary tariffs on RTO imports thereby pushing consumer prices up.

Before you criticise the EU for tariffs, let's wait and see what rates the UK are going to impose on us.

My guess is they will mirror the EU's.

[PurpleMoonlight]

///ajd said:

I assumed part of the reason for border checks is to check goods have the correct tariffs declared/applied - e.g. preparations of meat/fish (18% EU external tariff).

I assume the EU will want to apply some monitoring of this if we exit teh SM/CU, and that could include the Eire border, could it not?

I don't know the specifics, but isn't the tariff declared and paid by the importer?

[jonnyb]

PurpleMoonlight said:

///ajd said:

I assumed part of the reason for border checks is to check goods have the correct tariffs declared/applied - e.g. preparations of meat/fish (18% EU external tariff).

I assume the EU will want to apply some monitoring of this if we exit teh SM/CU, and that could include the Eire border, could it not?

I don't know the specifics, but isn't the tariff declared and paid by the importer?

Would they not also need to check the paperwork and the standards of the goods being moved across the border in both directions? How are they going to do that if no border exists?

[wisbech]

Any expected impact on NI nationality rights? At the moment (well, since Irish independence) anyone born in Ireland (not just the southern bit) can get an Irish passport. Many hold dual nationality. So we’ll have the odd situation of thousands of EU citizens being born in the UK every year.

The obvious solution is for NI to reunite with the South I guess.

[PurpleMoonlight]

jonnyb said:

Would they not also need to check the paperwork and the standards of the goods being moved across the border in both directions? How are they going to do that if no border exists?

How is that done now for RoW imports?

[jonnyb]

PurpleMoonlight said:

jonnyb said:

Would they not also need to check the paperwork and the standards of the goods being moved across the border in both directions? How are they going to do that if no border exists?

How is that done now for RoW imports?

Large queues and long delays?

That will be fun.

[robm3]

Tin Foil cap on but.....
Could May and some of the cronies be screwing up the negotiations on purpose?
Or even getting in behind closed doors with the EU, watching a bit of Netflix, and then walking out saying "it's still unresolved"?
At a minimum some of the Tory 'Remainers' could be derailing the process.

And then if any of the above happened, a watered down non-event agreement could occur.
Perhaps even a "just too hard so we'll kick it down the road 5 years".

I suppose if your belief was 'Remain' and you're put into a power position then these situations could be plausible.

Food for thought....

[ORD]

Dr Jekyll said:

ORD said:

'The point of Brexit is trade'. Now I've heard it all. We are so concerned about increasing trade that we want to leave the biggest free trade area in the World.

It isn't a free trade area, it's a customs union, that's the whole point. It forces us to put unnecessary tariffs on RTO imports thereby pushing consumer prices up.

Two points on that:

(1) Massive inflation will see to that, don't worry. The run on the pound will get worse long before it gets better.

(2) The UK will not lessen the customs burden on consumers. No chance. Our cash-strapped government would be mad to do so.

As for the bigger point about my views on the Leave vote, it's a mix of my own perception of the people I know who voted Leave and the results of national polls. It is beyond argument that 'immigration' was the biggest driver of the Leave vote.

That of course doesn't mean that it applies to you or that, even if it did, your personal concerns were invalid or racist or whatever. It's just a fact about the bulk of the Leave vote - it was essentially anti-immigration and a bit xenophobic.

[Tryke3]

B'stard Child said:

Tryke3 said:

I agree, vote leave was because of immigration

My friends, hated that polish were coming over and doing better than them and the old muslim scare, this one i dont really understand, people are actually thinking of shooting them at sea or something ?



Sad really

Get better friends................

Why everyone is mostly the same, my bkack friends get it but everyone else seemed to think the EU will cancel Christmas. Dont understimate the stupidity of everyday man and woman, they are thick as fk

[Tryke3]

robm3 said:

Tin Foil cap on but.....
Could May and some of the cronies be screwing up the negotiations on purpose?
Or even getting in behind closed doors with the EU, watching a bit of Netflix, and then walking out saying "it's still unresolved"?
At a minimum some of the Tory 'Remainers' could be derailing the process.

And then if any of the above happened, a watered down non-event agreement could occur.
Perhaps even a "just too hard so we'll kick it down the road 5 years".

I suppose if your belief was 'Remain' and you're put into a power position then these situations could be plausible.

Food for thought....

Nope just car crash politics