How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
ORD said:
'The point of Brexit is trade'. Now I've heard it all. We are so concerned about increasing trade that we want to leave the biggest free trade area in the World.
I am almost certain that Brexit is about at least the following things vastly more than it is about increasing trade:
(1) Reducing some form of immigration from somewhere (not sure where).
(2) 'Control of our borders' (see also (1))
(3) Sov'runty!
(4) Bendy bananas (or any other totally invented EU scare story)
(5) Boris' career plans.
(6) Rank nationalism of the old-fashioned kind (see also (1))
(7) Something about foreigners (see also (1))
Some people had very sensible reasons for voting Leave. But it is not a big proportion.
I've long thought that the whole trade/tariff thing is a red(ish) herring. In the UK we operate within and largely trade with free market economies. In free market economies, it's the market that sets the price; so the price is a balance between what someone is wiling to pay and what someone is willing to sell for. If following Brexit the price of - say - UK made ball bearings increases by 10% then the manufacturers will adapt accordingly - either adding value in some way or reducing their costs to absorb the extra 10% so they remain competitive in the EU market. Or begin to sell more elsewhere. In simple terms, the market has a tendency to sort itself out.I am almost certain that Brexit is about at least the following things vastly more than it is about increasing trade:
(1) Reducing some form of immigration from somewhere (not sure where).
(2) 'Control of our borders' (see also (1))
(3) Sov'runty!
(4) Bendy bananas (or any other totally invented EU scare story)
(5) Boris' career plans.
(6) Rank nationalism of the old-fashioned kind (see also (1))
(7) Something about foreigners (see also (1))
Some people had very sensible reasons for voting Leave. But it is not a big proportion.
What seems to be hidden from the whole debate is the hugely complex and expensive mechanisms that are needed to migrate over 290,000 pieces of EU legislation into UK controls; what is loosely categorised under the banner of 'Sovereignty'. Legislation covers many things from directives that determine the manufacturing qualities for steel waste bins, through to medical/drug standards up to human rights.
None of these were forced upon the UK. The UK participated in their creation and ratified into the UK legislature those that are relevant to us, adapted for implementation here. That's why British farmers are not obliged to adhere to EU Directives on melon farming, for example.
Each single piece of legislation needs to be migrated into UK law and controls. Each needs an institution to administer and oversee that legislation and these need the resources to be able to do this properly. In many cases, those resources do not yet exist. And nor does the legal framework yet enable the absorption of these into UK law.
On the assumption that the various EU laws, directives and legislation have previously been adapted for the UK and that having ratified them for UK use, we can thus assume that there is little need to dispense with any of them or change the substance of them. So we'll end up taking them as they are, the only difference being that we will self-administer them. But the cost of expanding the capacity to do so will - initially at least - be vast.
Where the trade thing links to this is that should the tariffs and such like increase the price of UK goods, then the directives that control the quality of those goods should be increased to levels above the EU so that British Standards become recognised as the better of the two. This can add value to the products sold by the UK and thus our products can be sold at a higher price. The EU know this and will do all they can to prevent allowing the UK to become a strong competitor.
Tryke3 said:
My friends, hated that polish were coming over and doing better than them in short period if time and the old muslim scare. This one i dont really understand, people are actually thinking that the EU should be shooting them at sea or something ?
The muslim one was the one that always wound me up the most - people were (and still are!) happy to admit the damage Brexit will do to our economy, the lives of their family members etc because they imagine it will somehow reduce immigration from Muslim majority (non EU) countries. These people have been conned.robm3 said:
Tin Foil cap on but.....
Could May and some of the cronies be screwing up the negotiations on purpose?
Or even getting in behind closed doors with the EU, watching a bit of Netflix, and then walking out saying "it's still unresolved"?
At a minimum some of the Tory 'Remainers' could be derailing the process.
And then if any of the above happened, a watered down non-event agreement could occur.
Perhaps even a "just too hard so we'll kick it down the road 5 years".
I suppose if your belief was 'Remain' and you're put into a power position then these situations could be plausible.
Food for thought....
Quite possibly. Cue Labour government at the next election because;Could May and some of the cronies be screwing up the negotiations on purpose?
Or even getting in behind closed doors with the EU, watching a bit of Netflix, and then walking out saying "it's still unresolved"?
At a minimum some of the Tory 'Remainers' could be derailing the process.
And then if any of the above happened, a watered down non-event agreement could occur.
Perhaps even a "just too hard so we'll kick it down the road 5 years".
I suppose if your belief was 'Remain' and you're put into a power position then these situations could be plausible.
Food for thought....
a) Corbyn has always been an EU sceptic and he'll come out strongly as the man to "overturn the betrayal by the Tories and honour the will of the people".
b) Look at the referendum voting in terms of political constituencies. Most of the Conservative areas were Leave. Wales, Scotland,NI and London were Remain but don't return a lot of Tory MPs. No amount of Boundary Changes will rectify that mismatch.
If we've not left by the next election it doesn't matter who's leading the Tories, they're out and whatever damage people imagine Brexit can do will be miniscule compared to 5 years of Corbyn. We will then have threads on PH where disillusioned Leave voters slag off and blame the Remain voters for wrecking the economy.
OTOH the UK government has published papers on various positions and gives me at least the impression that they're approaching these talks in a positive mindset even thought there is clearly discontent and continual rumblings from those wanting to stay in the EU.
Given the state of play in Germany and the rumours that they won't have a coalition in place until next year then I reckon the EU are just playing for time until the organ grinder arrives. I don't expect to hear anything meaningful until March 2019, at which point they'll go into a transition phase and discuss trade arrangements between 2019 & 2021. A trade deal will only appear once we've stopped paying them money because as long as we're giving them cash they'll hold out on a final deal.
Edited by b2hbm on Wednesday 18th October 08:35
///ajd said:
Some very intriguing inputs above.
Putting tariffs at 0 for imports doesn’t solve the irish border - what about the external tariffs the EU would apply the other way? With no border UK exports could flow unchecked into the EU via NI>Eire. Why would the EU allow this?
People on this thread have posted many times that they are happy with a hard border, they just want the EU to be blamed for implementing it.Putting tariffs at 0 for imports doesn’t solve the irish border - what about the external tariffs the EU would apply the other way? With no border UK exports could flow unchecked into the EU via NI>Eire. Why would the EU allow this?
ORD said:
As for the bigger point about my views on the Leave vote, it's a mix of my own perception of the people I know who voted Leave and the results of national polls. It is beyond argument that 'immigration' was the biggest driver of the Leave vote.
That of course doesn't mean that it applies to you or that, even if it did, your personal concerns were invalid or racist or whatever. It's just a fact about the bulk of the Leave vote - it was essentially anti-immigration and a bit xenophobic.
If you want to know the real drivers, I suggest you watch 'Brexit the movie' on Youtube. It was funded at great expense by Leave voters to make their case, and there is no mention of immigration whatsoever. Strange omission if we really are a bunch of xenophobic racists primarily motivated by being anti immigrant.That of course doesn't mean that it applies to you or that, even if it did, your personal concerns were invalid or racist or whatever. It's just a fact about the bulk of the Leave vote - it was essentially anti-immigration and a bit xenophobic.
Heh, you go away for a day and ten pages later...
As I was bored, I did a quick count up over those last ten pages.
Lest anyone think that it's the same three people going round and round in circles, we've seen fifty different posters in the last day or so.
Top Poster award goes to Eddie (19 posts), closely followed by:
jsf
SantaBarbara
mx5nut
ORD
TTwiggy
Funkycoldribena
Mr T
Which (by my crude measure) means we have 5 regular remain supporters and 3 leave supporters talking the most, with most of the remaining posters only posting a handful of times. Just so you don't think the numbers are skewed, both //ajd and I have been quiet for the last day or so.
In terms of where we get our news from, the following media outlets were cited as proof of something or other:
Today (2)
The Times (1)
BBC (2)
Guardian (2)
Huffington Post (1)
Daily Mail (1)
Surprisingly the Independent didn't get cited for a change - but //ajd was not posting, that explains the absence.
In terms of debate, there were around ten incidents of a poster outright calling another post 'silly' or 'nonsense' or similar dismissive terms.
There were twelve incidents where posters referring to the other side with dismissive words ('Remoaner, Brexiteer etc) - eleven of them were jibes at Leave voters ('Brexiteer buffoons') and one was at Remain voters ('Remoaners').
There were a tiny handful of incidents where the poster got sweary or used aggressive language - roughly evenly divided. On the other hand there were twice as many cases where posters claimed the other side was 'angry', 'upset' or 'frustrated' - all of them accusations by Remain supporters.
In 100 posts there were around 17 that included direct insults aimed at someone else.
At that point my curry arrived and I stopped counting.
As I was bored, I did a quick count up over those last ten pages.
Lest anyone think that it's the same three people going round and round in circles, we've seen fifty different posters in the last day or so.
Top Poster award goes to Eddie (19 posts), closely followed by:
jsf
SantaBarbara
mx5nut
ORD
TTwiggy
Funkycoldribena
Mr T
Which (by my crude measure) means we have 5 regular remain supporters and 3 leave supporters talking the most, with most of the remaining posters only posting a handful of times. Just so you don't think the numbers are skewed, both //ajd and I have been quiet for the last day or so.
In terms of where we get our news from, the following media outlets were cited as proof of something or other:
Today (2)
The Times (1)
BBC (2)
Guardian (2)
Huffington Post (1)
Daily Mail (1)
Surprisingly the Independent didn't get cited for a change - but //ajd was not posting, that explains the absence.
In terms of debate, there were around ten incidents of a poster outright calling another post 'silly' or 'nonsense' or similar dismissive terms.
There were twelve incidents where posters referring to the other side with dismissive words ('Remoaner, Brexiteer etc) - eleven of them were jibes at Leave voters ('Brexiteer buffoons') and one was at Remain voters ('Remoaners').
There were a tiny handful of incidents where the poster got sweary or used aggressive language - roughly evenly divided. On the other hand there were twice as many cases where posters claimed the other side was 'angry', 'upset' or 'frustrated' - all of them accusations by Remain supporters.
In 100 posts there were around 17 that included direct insults aimed at someone else.
At that point my curry arrived and I stopped counting.
Edited by Tuna on Wednesday 18th October 08:50
Dr Jekyll said:
If you want to know the real drivers, I suggest you watch 'Brexit the movie' on Youtube. It was funded at great expense by Leave voters to make their case, and there is no mention of immigration whatsoever. Strange omission if we really are a bunch of xenophobic racists primarily motivated by being anti immigrant.
If turkeys made a video would they mention Christmas?To deny that immigration was a significant concern for a vast number of voters is silly.
Tuna said:
Heh, you go away for a day and ten pages later...
As I was bored, I did a quick count up over those last ten pages.
Lest anyone think that it's the same three people going round and round in circles, we've seen fifty different posters in the last day or so.
Top Poster award goes to Eddie (19 posts), closely followed by:
jsf
SantaBarbara
mx5nut
ORD
TTwiggy
Funkycoldribena
Mr T
Which (by my crude measure) means we have 5 regular remain supporters and 3 leave supporters talking the most, with most of the remaining posters only posting a handful of times. Just so you don't think the numbers are skewed, both //ajd and I have been quiet for the last day or so.
In terms of where we get our news from, the following media outlets were cited as proof of something or other:
Today (2)
The Times (1)
BBC (2)
Guardian (2)
Huffington Post (1)
Daily Mail (1)
Viz (1)
In terms of debate, there were around ten incidents of a poster outright calling another post 'silly' or 'nonsense' or similar dismissive terms.
There were twelve incidents where posters referring to the other side with dismissive words ('Remoaner, Brexiteer etc) - eleven of them were jibes at Leave voters ('Brexiteer buffoons') and one was at Remain voters ('Remoaners').
There were a tiny handful of incidents where the poster got sweary or used aggressive language - roughly evenly divided. On the other hand there were twice as many cases where posters claimed the other side was 'angry', 'upset' or 'frustrated' - all of them accusations by Remain supporters.
In 100 posts there were around1718 that included direct insults aimed at someone else.
At that point my curry arrived and I stopped counting.
Idiotic post from an idiotic poster. As I was bored, I did a quick count up over those last ten pages.
Lest anyone think that it's the same three people going round and round in circles, we've seen fifty different posters in the last day or so.
Top Poster award goes to Eddie (19 posts), closely followed by:
jsf
SantaBarbara
mx5nut
ORD
TTwiggy
Funkycoldribena
Mr T
Which (by my crude measure) means we have 5 regular remain supporters and 3 leave supporters talking the most, with most of the remaining posters only posting a handful of times. Just so you don't think the numbers are skewed, both //ajd and I have been quiet for the last day or so.
In terms of where we get our news from, the following media outlets were cited as proof of something or other:
Today (2)
The Times (1)
BBC (2)
Guardian (2)
Huffington Post (1)
Daily Mail (1)
Viz (1)
In terms of debate, there were around ten incidents of a poster outright calling another post 'silly' or 'nonsense' or similar dismissive terms.
There were twelve incidents where posters referring to the other side with dismissive words ('Remoaner, Brexiteer etc) - eleven of them were jibes at Leave voters ('Brexiteer buffoons') and one was at Remain voters ('Remoaners').
There were a tiny handful of incidents where the poster got sweary or used aggressive language - roughly evenly divided. On the other hand there were twice as many cases where posters claimed the other side was 'angry', 'upset' or 'frustrated' - all of them accusations by Remain supporters.
In 100 posts there were around
At that point my curry arrived and I stopped counting.
ORD said:
Two points on that:
(1) Massive inflation will see to that, don't worry. The run on the pound will get worse long before it gets better.
(2) The UK will not lessen the customs burden on consumers. No chance. Our cash-strapped government would be mad to do so.
As for the bigger point about my views on the Leave vote, it's a mix of my own perception of the people I know who voted Leave and the results of national polls. It is beyond argument that 'immigration' was the biggest driver of the Leave vote.
That of course doesn't mean that it applies to you or that, even if it did, your personal concerns were invalid or racist or whatever. It's just a fact about the bulk of the Leave vote - it was essentially anti-immigration and a bit xenophobic.
Not true. There is no such ‘fact’ whatsoever. Continuing to portray the leave vote as xenophobic and anti-immigration is the same rubbish that undermined the Remian campaign from day 1.(1) Massive inflation will see to that, don't worry. The run on the pound will get worse long before it gets better.
(2) The UK will not lessen the customs burden on consumers. No chance. Our cash-strapped government would be mad to do so.
As for the bigger point about my views on the Leave vote, it's a mix of my own perception of the people I know who voted Leave and the results of national polls. It is beyond argument that 'immigration' was the biggest driver of the Leave vote.
That of course doesn't mean that it applies to you or that, even if it did, your personal concerns were invalid or racist or whatever. It's just a fact about the bulk of the Leave vote - it was essentially anti-immigration and a bit xenophobic.
Most people accept that ceratin types of immigration is value-adding, however it makes no sense not to be able to control that immigration to meet the changing needs of the country (and to some degree protect the existing population).
Edited by sidicks on Wednesday 18th October 08:59
mx5nut said:
Tryke3 said:
My friends, hated that polish were coming over and doing better than them in short period if time and the old muslim scare. This one i dont really understand, people are actually thinking that the EU should be shooting them at sea or something ?
The muslim one was the one that always wound me up the most - people were (and still are!) happy to admit the damage Brexit will do to our economy, the lives of their family members etc because they imagine it will somehow reduce immigration from Muslim majority (non EU) countries. These people have been conned.Oh, and just because your friends may have voted primarily due to immigration, the most detailed analyses available put it as the third primary reason, so the s
te you're claiming is entirely up for debate. Frankly, reading some of the comments posted overnight on this and a couple of other threads, I'm amazed that the samaritans aren't monitoring the posters. Seeing such doom everywhere, yet being completely unwilling to engage with any of the potential benefits.
Tuna said:
Heh, you go away for a day and ten pages later...
As I was bored, I did a quick count up over those last ten pages.
Lest anyone think that it's the same three people going round and round in circles, we've seen fifty different posters in the last day or so.
Top Poster award goes to Eddie (19 posts), closely followed by:
jsf
SantaBarbara
mx5nut
ORD
TTwiggy
Funkycoldribena
Mr T
Which (by my crude measure) means we have 5 regular remain supporters and 3 leave supporters talking the most, with most of the remaining posters only posting a handful of times. Just so you don't think the numbers are skewed, both //ajd and I have been quiet for the last day or so.
In terms of where we get our news from, the following media outlets were cited as proof of something or other:
Today (2)
The Times (1)
BBC (2)
Guardian (2)
Huffington Post (1)
Daily Mail (1)
Surprisingly the Independent didn't get cited for a change - but //ajd was not posting, that explains the absence.
In terms of debate, there were around ten incidents of a poster outright calling another post 'silly' or 'nonsense' or similar dismissive terms.
There were twelve incidents where posters referring to the other side with dismissive words ('Remoaner, Brexiteer etc) - eleven of them were jibes at Leave voters ('Brexiteer buffoons') and one was at Remain voters ('Remoaners').
There were a tiny handful of incidents where the poster got sweary or used aggressive language - roughly evenly divided. On the other hand there were twice as many cases where posters claimed the other side was 'angry', 'upset' or 'frustrated' - all of them accusations by Remain supporters.
In 100 posts there were around 17 that included direct insults aimed at someone else.
At that point my curry arrived and I stopped counting.
I wonder what would happen if all us leavers turned around and said we agree with you?As I was bored, I did a quick count up over those last ten pages.
Lest anyone think that it's the same three people going round and round in circles, we've seen fifty different posters in the last day or so.
Top Poster award goes to Eddie (19 posts), closely followed by:
jsf
SantaBarbara
mx5nut
ORD
TTwiggy
Funkycoldribena
Mr T
Which (by my crude measure) means we have 5 regular remain supporters and 3 leave supporters talking the most, with most of the remaining posters only posting a handful of times. Just so you don't think the numbers are skewed, both //ajd and I have been quiet for the last day or so.
In terms of where we get our news from, the following media outlets were cited as proof of something or other:
Today (2)
The Times (1)
BBC (2)
Guardian (2)
Huffington Post (1)
Daily Mail (1)
Surprisingly the Independent didn't get cited for a change - but //ajd was not posting, that explains the absence.
In terms of debate, there were around ten incidents of a poster outright calling another post 'silly' or 'nonsense' or similar dismissive terms.
There were twelve incidents where posters referring to the other side with dismissive words ('Remoaner, Brexiteer etc) - eleven of them were jibes at Leave voters ('Brexiteer buffoons') and one was at Remain voters ('Remoaners').
There were a tiny handful of incidents where the poster got sweary or used aggressive language - roughly evenly divided. On the other hand there were twice as many cases where posters claimed the other side was 'angry', 'upset' or 'frustrated' - all of them accusations by Remain supporters.
In 100 posts there were around 17 that included direct insults aimed at someone else.
At that point my curry arrived and I stopped counting.
Edited by Tuna on Wednesday 18th October 08:50
Would there be an implosion?
Sway said:
You're really good at putting up strawmen - any examples of what you're claiming?
Oh, and just because your friends may have voted primarily due to immigration, the most detailed analyses available put it as the third primary reason, so the ste you're claiming is entirely up for debate.
Frankly, reading some of the comments posted overnight on this and a couple of other threads, I'm amazed that the samaritans aren't monitoring the posters. Seeing such doom everywhere, yet being completely unwilling to engage with any of the potential benefits.
What benefits? Serious question. I'm yet to hear anything credible.Oh, and just because your friends may have voted primarily due to immigration, the most detailed analyses available put it as the third primary reason, so the s
te you're claiming is entirely up for debate. Frankly, reading some of the comments posted overnight on this and a couple of other threads, I'm amazed that the samaritans aren't monitoring the posters. Seeing such doom everywhere, yet being completely unwilling to engage with any of the potential benefits.
ORD said:
Sway said:
You're really good at putting up strawmen - any examples of what you're claiming?
Oh, and just because your friends may have voted primarily due to immigration, the most detailed analyses available put it as the third primary reason, so the ste you're claiming is entirely up for debate.
Frankly, reading some of the comments posted overnight on this and a couple of other threads, I'm amazed that the samaritans aren't monitoring the posters. Seeing such doom everywhere, yet being completely unwilling to engage with any of the potential benefits.
What benefits? Serious question. I'm yet to hear anything credible.Oh, and just because your friends may have voted primarily due to immigration, the most detailed analyses available put it as the third primary reason, so the s
te you're claiming is entirely up for debate. Frankly, reading some of the comments posted overnight on this and a couple of other threads, I'm amazed that the samaritans aren't monitoring the posters. Seeing such doom everywhere, yet being completely unwilling to engage with any of the potential benefits.
Which isn't a surprise, as it's painfully obvious to those posting about specific opportunities - the silence and lack of response is deafening.
Meanwhile, how credible exactly do you think you come across as, based upon the majority of your posts claiming armageddon, yet providing only the flimsiest of rationales for that view?
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/92029045299...
Our sea borders are already protected, but I'm sure he's talking about something else, of course.
Adam Bienkov - UK Political Editor of Business Insider said:
Home Office Permanent Secretary Philip Rutnam says it would be unwise to rule out using troops to police the borders in a no-deal Brexit.
The usual suspects will be here in a minute to pretend that the UK's border isn't a real EU border if we pretend really hard that it's 1970.Our sea borders are already protected, but I'm sure he's talking about something else, of course.
ORD said:
What benefits? Serious question. I'm yet to hear anything credible.
Anyone who believes there are no such benefits has zero credibility whatsoever. Whether you believe those obvious benefits outweigh the disadvantages depends on a number of factors which will have different priorities for different people.
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