The Future of Power Generation in Great Britain

[Condi]

Evanivitch said:

Better gas planning is simply to plan-ahead gas deliveries better.

Part of the issue in March the failure of a number of offshore platforms in the morning. It wasnt so much that the gas demand was unexpected, but with such high demand and a shortfall in supply it took a few hours to book more interconnector flow, and for LNG terminals to increase supply. By the afternoon the offshore terminals had resumed flows.

[Gary C]

Evanivitch said:

Better gas planning, better gas storage, better gas power plants, hopefully some district heating and some fracking.

But on current plans, we won't even have the stations .

[hidetheelephants]

Evanivitch said:

I'm not suggesting we rely on hope, I believe fracking will go ahead and it will provide energy security in the medium term, but we also have a very shaky government that traditionally seeks support from rural communities.

Better gas planning is simply to plan-ahead gas deliveries better. All this talk of interconnects, but 25% of our gas comes from South Hook alone.

We are currently at a low in gas storage, however new facilities are coming online.

Is there any practical reason that an LNG carrier couldn't wait off shore with cargo? Aside from economic of course.

There's no reason you can't do that, but there's not really enough slack in terms of LNG tanker tonnage for it to be a viable thing to do; oil speculators have played the market with tankers at several crisis points because there are a lot of old and st tankers which are essentially worthless.

[Evanivitch]

Gary C said:

But on current plans, we won't even have the stations .

Not do we seem to include district heating in any new town plans.

The closest we might get is in the Caerau Mine heat-pump project.

[V8 Fettler]

Condi said:

There are new gas storage units being built, such as this one in Cheshire.

https://www.storengy.com/countries/unitedkingdom/e...

There are also new offshore gas fields being found and exploited, such as this one owned by Total.

https://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases...

Rough (now closed) storage capacity approx 3300 mcm.

Stublach storage capacity approx 450 mcm

Peak gas use March 1st 2018, approx 400 mcm

Stublach might be useful for peak lopping, but for a long, drawn-out cold winter it will just delay the inevitable by a couple of days.

Despite Total's discovery, UK annual gas production from the North Sea continues to decline:

2017: approx 30 billion cubic meters

2000: approx 110 billion cubic meters

Re: March 1st 2018 http://www.pfbach.dk/firma_pfb/references/pfb_uk_r...

An energy consultant said:

A reasonable balance was established during the day without serious consequences, but it was demonstrated that the gas supply system does not have transmission or storage capacity for serving the full demand on a cold day.

Has anyone modelled March 1st 2018 with no coal? Did coal save the day?

[V8 Fettler]

Evanivitch said:

V8 Fettler said:

Why should we rely on hope? Although I suppose we could always hope for a warm winter.

Better gas planning? What's that then?

We cannot rely on gas interconnectors when continental demand is high. Gas storage is a possibility, how much do we currently have, one week? How much do we need? Thirteen weeks?

I'm not suggesting we rely on hope, I believe fracking will go ahead and it will provide energy security in the medium term, but we also have a very shaky government that traditionally seeks support from rural communities.

Better gas planning is simply to plan-ahead gas deliveries better. All this talk of interconnects, but 25% of our gas comes from South Hook alone.

We are currently at a low in gas storage, however new facilities are coming online.

Is there any practical reason that an LNG carrier couldn't wait off shore with cargo? Aside from economic of course.

The gas supply via the interconnects fell when most needed during the winter of 2018, see further up the thread.

I prefer not to rely on hope, I prefer to rely on long term planning for an efficient, reliable, robust power generation system.

[Condi]

V8 Fettler said:

The gas supply via the interconnects fell when most needed during the winter of 2018, see further up the thread.

The IC flows are economic.

During summer and periods of low EU demand then gas over there is cheap, and so it flows here cheaply. During winter when EU demand is higher then their prices increase to encourage gas not to flow to the UK. More of our gas is supplied from storage or offshore assets, which are less economic vs cheap EU gas in summer.

There isnt a structural reason why IC flows fell, other than the prices at both ends of the IC. If UK prices were higher more would flow here. On the day in March when our offshore assets had issues then the high UK price did encourage a greater flow of gas from the IC.

[wc98]

Condi said:

The IC flows are economic.

During summer and periods of low EU demand then gas over there is cheap, and so it flows here cheaply. During winter when EU demand is higher then their prices increase to encourage gas not to flow to the UK. More of our gas is supplied from storage or offshore assets, which are less economic vs cheap EU gas in summer.

There isnt a structural reason why IC flows fell, other than the prices at both ends of the IC. If UK prices were higher more would flow here. On the day in March when our offshore assets had issues then the high UK price did encourage a greater flow of gas from the IC.

so the solution would appear to be ,double the price of gas for everyone during winter. jobs a good un

[Evanivitch]

V8 Fettler said:

Az
I prefer not to rely on hope, I prefer to rely on long term planning for an efficient, reliable, robust power generation system.

So what do you suggest? Have hope on imported coal? Have hope in planning permission for nuclear?

And it's not hope, it's risk. Industry manages it all the time and where possible mitigates it.

[V8 Fettler]

Condi said:

V8 Fettler said:

The gas supply via the interconnects fell when most needed during the winter of 2018, see further up the thread.

The IC flows are economic.

During summer and periods of low EU demand then gas over there is cheap, and so it flows here cheaply. During winter when EU demand is higher then their prices increase to encourage gas not to flow to the UK. More of our gas is supplied from storage or offshore assets, which are less economic vs cheap EU gas in summer.

There isnt a structural reason why IC flows fell, other than the prices at both ends of the IC. If UK prices were higher more would flow here. On the day in March when our offshore assets had issues then the high UK price did encourage a greater flow of gas from the IC.

Whatever spin you put on it, the end result was as per quotes previously:

An energy consultant said:

A reasonable balance was established during the day without serious consequences, but it was demonstrated that the gas supply system does not have transmission or storage capacity for serving the full demand on a cold day.

utilitywise 06/03/2018 said:

There is enough gas around to make it through the current cold snap, but if it is prolonged or there is a further spell of cold later in March, this could be very troublesome.

[V8 Fettler]

Evanivitch said:

V8 Fettler said:

Az
I prefer not to rely on hope, I prefer to rely on long term planning for an efficient, reliable, robust power generation system.

So what do you suggest? Have hope on imported coal? Have hope in planning permission for nuclear?

And it's not hope, it's risk. Industry manages it all the time and where possible mitigates it.

No element of hope involved if we have twenty weeks of coal stockpiled at DRAX x 6.

Perhaps you could decide if you are referring to "hope" or "risk"?

[Evanivitch]

V8 Fettler said:

No element of hope involved if we have twenty weeks of coal stockpiled at DRAX x 6.

Perhaps you could decide if you are referring to "hope" or "risk"?

Where's the coal coming from?

[V8 Fettler]

Evanivitch said:

V8 Fettler said:

No element of hope involved if we have twenty weeks of coal stockpiled at DRAX x 6.

Perhaps you could decide if you are referring to "hope" or "risk"?

Where's the coal coming from?

A hole in the ground would be a flippant answer.

Import during the spring/summer/autumn.

[Evanivitch]

V8 Fettler said:

A hole in the ground would be a flippant answer.

Import during the spring/summer/autumn.

So we're hoping other countries are willing to sell us coal? Interesting.

[V8 Fettler]

Evanivitch said:

V8 Fettler said:

A hole in the ground would be a flippant answer.

Import during the spring/summer/autumn.

So we're hoping other countries are willing to sell us coal? Interesting.

Why rely on hope when there is an international market in coal? With stockpiling, we can avoid purchasing coal at peak prices.

No more from me on this thread for a couple of days, off to burn hydrocarbons to feed tress in far flung lands.

Tress = trees!

Edited by V8 Fettler on Monday 22 October 07:03

[Condi]

There is an international market in gas too.


Your arguments are as terrible as your spelling.

[Gary C]

Evanivitch said:

Gary C said:

But on current plans, we won't even have the stations .

Not do we seem to include district heating in any new town plans.

The closest we might get is in the Caerau Mine heat-pump project.

Spent some time in an old soviet apartment block. That was district heated by the local RBMK. The building was absolutely roasting !. Had to have the windows open to sleep even though it was -30 outside

Was highly effective, but the area was very 'brutal' with big pipes popping up all over the place, expansion loops sprouting into the air. Not exactly elegant.
Love the NY system though. Liquid nitrogen dewars everywhere for cryogenic isolation of pipe work sections.

[Evanivitch]

Interestingly, I was staying on an Army camp recently and despite the rather poor state of the accomodation I was surprised to see they were heated by Air-to-water heatpumps that took atleast some of their power from two large solar arrays also on site.

I can't imagine how much more effective it could have been if the accomodation buildings had decent insulation and ventilation.

[Nickgnome]

Evanivitch said:

Interestingly, I was staying on an Army camp recently and despite the rather poor state of the accomodation I was surprised to see they were heated by Air-to-water heatpumps that took atleast some of their power from two large solar arrays also on site.

I can't imagine how much more effective it could have been if the accomodation buildings had decent insulation and ventilation.

Yes an insulated slab makes a great low grade heat store.

The led lighting in our newly constructed open plan living, dining, kitchen area, 112m2, is less than 2.5w/m2 so reducing load requirements substantially. Additionally we are operating at a fraction of that otherwise way too bright.

[rolando]

The future should certainly not be based on us all paying wind farms to stand idle.

"A record £4.8m was paid to wind farm operators in the space of one day, for switching off turbines when it became too windy.

More than 60 farms — most in Scotland — were compensated after electricity supply outstripped demand on October 8. The bonanza far exceeded the previous reported record of £3.1m, sparking fresh criticism of the Scottish government’s headlong rush towards green energy.

In exceptionally windy conditions, the National Grid cannot cope with the extra energy turbines produce, so firms receive “constraint payments” to shut down. Although most wind power comes from Scotland, households across Britain are funding the payments through their electricity bills."

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/28/record-payo...