Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

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motco

16,030 posts

248 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
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Blackpuddin said:
My knowledge of the road system around there is patchy (zero) but wouldn't making a mess of the first few rows of vehicles in that convoy, and of the terrain immediately ahead and to the sides of it, scupper the advance for quite a while?
...and the last few rows to prevent escape backwards. It's SO bleedin' obvious that the fact that it hasn't been mentioned by anyone outside forums like this suggests it might be planned. Just wait until the right location...

Puggit

48,571 posts

250 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
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The Hypno-Toad said:
One thing that needs clarification on that. Was it the cars wouldn't connect to the charge and displayed the message or the other way? If its the charging point that wouldn't charge the car that leads to interesting implications going forward for all countries.
Anonymous hacked the network - I don't believe it's Tesla's network.

768

13,953 posts

98 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
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BikeBikeBIke said:
vonuber said:
What are you basing that first point on?
I think thats established fact. It's totally fits what happened on the ground and the Russians accidentally released the statement they were going to issue once that happened so we have it in their own words.
hehe

Byker28i

61,780 posts

219 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
quotequote all
Puggit said:
vonuber said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
vonuber said:
What are you basing that first point on?
I think thats established fact. It's totally fits what happened on the ground and the Russians accidentally released the statement they were going to issue once that happened so we have it in their own words.
No I meant the fall in a couple of days part.
The statement was released after 2 days.
There's much the russians prefilmed - the declaration released at 5pm as live, but the watches people were wearing was 5 hours earlier etc

steveo3002

10,568 posts

176 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
quotequote all
SteveStrange said:
Johnnybee said:
Solocle said:
Basically no cars on the road, heaven on a bike!
I bet he rode straight through the red light too madlaugh
hehe

"It's my riiiiiiiiiight!"
im allowed

BikeBikeBIke

8,420 posts

117 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
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sisu said:
This is already a very expensive mistake by Russia, even if they were able to take Kiev by just flattening it. Then what? You have a two ports to inland seas and the world feeling quite happy to blockade them and fiancial pressure to seize Russian assets of private citizens living in the west.
You are then in the Ronnie Biggs situation where you pay to stay.
And insurgents are killing and maiming your troops by the dozen for decades to come.

GravelBen

15,759 posts

232 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
quotequote all
Someone pointed out to me that Poland has been positively swarming with small private aircraft on flightradar the last few hours, including groups flying around in circles together etc.

Wonder if they've been organised through aero clubs etc to try and cover for something else? Like Ukrainian pilots picking up their new Mig-29s perhaps.

KAgantua

3,962 posts

133 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
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xu5 said:
Digga said:
Blue One said:
What puzzles me is whether to set-backs the Russians are facing are down to a poor military, miscalculating the resistance of the Ukrainians, or a longer-term plan of ever escalating violence until they get a surrender.

I find it hard to believe it is down to a poor military, apparently the Russians have spent the last decade reoganizing and re-equipping their armed forces, abandoning the old mass conscript model for a more professional arm. They have also had months preparing for this conflict close to the theatre of operations. That being said, if it does turn out to be the case it will severely backfire on Putin (amongst other things from this mess) as people will know Russia isn't the power it made out it was.
I can tell you. I could spend years practicing football and never ever be a footballist. I simply lack the aptitude, ability and, crucially, the will.

Conversely - to use a PH alternative - I try to drive my car quickly on track and have paid for some decent instruction, which most certainly did bring improvements.

To succeed, the military needs money, the right training, talent and the will and conviction. Not really sure how much of any of those its had. No one knows how much of the military budget was siphoned off through backhanders, cronyism and dodgy deals.
In the first part of this thread someone posted a really interesting link (perhaps they could post it again)about the modernisation if the Russian army since it was found to be wanting after the invasion of Georgia.

Basically a General (?) was tasked with the job and started doing some good work to bring RA upto speed but Basically it was costly and did not fit Russias traditional military make up. Putin also viewed the General as a threat so was replaced by another yes man, the Grey haired guy seated at the "I am prepared to use nukes" breifing
I remember - basiclaly it was a twitter thread, OG general knew what he was doing but was replaced with a yes man.

J210

4,546 posts

185 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
quotequote all
Lots of propaganda being pushed by both sides.

The most noticeable is Russia do a lot of PR videos well polished and all staged. Ukrainian stuff pushed tend to be more phone video. So still have to take it with a pinch of salt.

Russia defiantly upped the shelling of buildings and towns last night.


Question for military experts. Is it common for such a high failure rate of unexploded weapons ? Lots of pictures in different places of all sorts that hasn't blown.

HappyMidget

6,788 posts

117 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
quotequote all
KAgantua said:
xu5 said:
Digga said:
Blue One said:
What puzzles me is whether to set-backs the Russians are facing are down to a poor military, miscalculating the resistance of the Ukrainians, or a longer-term plan of ever escalating violence until they get a surrender.

I find it hard to believe it is down to a poor military, apparently the Russians have spent the last decade reoganizing and re-equipping their armed forces, abandoning the old mass conscript model for a more professional arm. They have also had months preparing for this conflict close to the theatre of operations. That being said, if it does turn out to be the case it will severely backfire on Putin (amongst other things from this mess) as people will know Russia isn't the power it made out it was.
I can tell you. I could spend years practicing football and never ever be a footballist. I simply lack the aptitude, ability and, crucially, the will.

Conversely - to use a PH alternative - I try to drive my car quickly on track and have paid for some decent instruction, which most certainly did bring improvements.

To succeed, the military needs money, the right training, talent and the will and conviction. Not really sure how much of any of those its had. No one knows how much of the military budget was siphoned off through backhanders, cronyism and dodgy deals.
In the first part of this thread someone posted a really interesting link (perhaps they could post it again)about the modernisation if the Russian army since it was found to be wanting after the invasion of Georgia.

Basically a General (?) was tasked with the job and started doing some good work to bring RA upto speed but Basically it was costly and did not fit Russias traditional military make up. Putin also viewed the General as a threat so was replaced by another yes man, the Grey haired guy seated at the "I am prepared to use nukes" breifing
I remember - basiclaly it was a twitter thread, OG general knew what he was doing but was replaced with a yes man.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/149799336307691...

bigandclever

13,851 posts

240 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
quotequote all
steveo3002 said:
SteveStrange said:
Johnnybee said:
Solocle said:
Basically no cars on the road, heaven on a bike!
I bet he rode straight through the red light too madlaugh
hehe

"It's my riiiiiiiiiight!"
im allowed
Presumably none of you have seen the video of the poor fker cyclist that gets caught in a blast? Not that specific cyclist, of course. CCTV from a building looking out into the street.

king arthur

6,654 posts

263 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
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PositronicRay said:
Yup.

I'm physically sickened watching this one unfold. No other world event has effected me quite this way in my 60yrs.

I think it's a combination of shock, futility, proximity, reporting, fragility, vs the normality of my life.

I doubt I'd have felt the same way in my 20,30,40 or 50s
I am feeling extremely nervous about this war. I, like most others I would guess, never thought Putin would actually do it. Now he has, I am emotionally involved.

Two and a half years ago I went to Ukraine. I wasn't particularly keen on going there but I had to, my younger brother who had been living there for a few years was dying of brain cancer. I got to spent just over a week with him before he passed away right in front of me. I buried him in a cemetary just outside the town where he had lived - Novomoskovsk near Dnipro, as was his wish. What I learned during my time there was how incedibly friendly and accomodating the Ukrainians are, how peaceful and safe the whole place feels (young women can walk around alone at night along unlit roads and not feel worried) and also how beautiful Kyiv is. I had to go back after three months just to have a proper look at the place and by the time I flew back I had sort of fallen in love with the country.

So what is happening now and what I fear may happen over the next few days is really, genuinely upsetting me.

snotrag

14,646 posts

213 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
quotequote all
GravelBen said:
Wonder if they've been organised through aero clubs etc to try and cover for something else? Like Ukrainian pilots picking up their new Mig-29s perhaps.
Its a nice idea. But living with 2 miles of 2 aero clubs in North Yorkshire, the far, far simple explanation might be - is it a nice sunny CAVOK day?


Thats all it take here and its like a Cessna display all day.

vonuber

17,868 posts

167 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
quotequote all
Puggit said:
vonuber said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
vonuber said:
What are you basing that first point on?
I think thats established fact. It's totally fits what happened on the ground and the Russians accidentally released the statement they were going to issue once that happened so we have it in their own words.
No I meant the fall in a couple of days part.
The statement was released after 2 days.
Yeah I know, it was more doc.martin's assertion that the Ukraine would fall which he then posted as to why he thought so.

super7

1,955 posts

210 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
quotequote all
Solocle said:
Byker28i said:
AngryPartsBloke said:
originals said:
800kms?

To deliver some flowers?

During a war?
I saw a video from Ukraine yesterday of a Cyclist going out on his road bike full skin tight lycra past Tanks. People are strange.
Thats just a typical cyclist - still trying to own the bloody road biggrin
Basically no cars on the road, heaven on a bike!
And a Molotov Cocktail in your drinks bottle smile

Whoozit

3,647 posts

271 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
quotequote all
Blue One said:
TonyToniTone said:
This view that the Russians are avoiding major skirmishes and risks to civilians, making a quick run into Kiev seems to fit reality more than a lot of the breathless posts on social media. The real war either hasn’t started yet or was never intended to.

So far I think there’s been a big dose of propaganda, media and social media misinformation. It’s undoubtedly true to some degree but hard to decipher which parts are true.
I think this could well be a very accurate summation of the situation. Be under no illusion all the western MSM (especially in the UK) are on 'full frothing at the mouth' hyperdrive anti-Russian propaganda footing now. It must be bliss to them to have another enemy to get hysterical about after all the lockdown madness of the last two years seemed to have finally gone away...
It's an attractive view, and I don't know the reality on the ground. I think it was in the previous thread that someone said Ukraine has for operational reasons, insisted that a lot of the on-the-ground reporting is not shared. So we're not seeing a full picture.

Unfortunately that minimal-damage theory doesn't quite fit with the use of cluster bombs in Kharkiv yesterday afternoon, and the major strike on the Kharkiv administration building this morning. The morning BBC presenters in Ukraine said there were significantly more explosions last night.

Edited by Whoozit on Tuesday 1st March 10:26

GravelBen

15,759 posts

232 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
quotequote all
snotrag said:
GravelBen said:
Wonder if they've been organised through aero clubs etc to try and cover for something else? Like Ukrainian pilots picking up their new Mig-29s perhaps.
Its a nice idea. But living with 2 miles of 2 aero clubs in North Yorkshire, the far, far simple explanation might be - is it a nice sunny CAVOK day?

Thats all it take here and its like a Cessna display all day.
Even on a weekday? Could just be that I guess, I haven't noticed that many on flightradar any other time but haven't been looking all that often.

Krupp88

591 posts

129 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
That is the conclusion I have also come to, whilst fully understanding the pro Ukrainian media narrative (and popular public sentiment) the reality must be that the bulk of Russian force and capability has been held back. They should be capable of blasting a corridor into whichever objective they have in mind, and defending that path.

The pretext for the ratcheting up of force being the supply of arms to a hostile (as Putin sees it) state from outside that increases the threat to Russia and the economic warfare (sanctions, SWIFT ect) being waged against them.

otolith

56,861 posts

206 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
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I don't think that the Russian government would be upset about Russian citizens being denied access to Western social media.

768

13,953 posts

98 months

Tuesday 1st March 2022
quotequote all
J210 said:
Question for military experts. Is it common for such a high failure rate of unexploded weapons ? Lots of pictures in different places of all sorts that hasn't blown.
Not a military expert, but I don't think it's abnormal with cluster submunitions. They leave a nasty legacy once the fighting's stopped.
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