Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[hidetheelephants]

The Hypno-Toad said:

sisu said:

For the civilians who i have spoken to there is a real oh st moment. Many are trying to get out of town.
Anything to do with money or electronics is screwed. The Tesla charger out of St Petersburg, it has a "fk you Free Ukraine" when you try and plug it in, my friend had to ditch his Model S at a friends house. None of the cards work, none of the ATMs have money now and the Russian version of debit card, well that is patchy even paying for fuel as everyone wants cash , not rubels.
They are being attacked in a way that the older generation just can't grasp.

One thing that needs clarification on that. Was it the cars wouldn't connect to the charge and displayed the message or the other way? If its the charging point that wouldn't charge the car that leads to interesting implications going forward for all countries.

If it's just the chargers borked then granny leads should be fine, assuming you can access a socket.

[Puggit]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

It's beyond that point. Anonymous are doing a great job, and now citizen power is taking over. People are leaving 'reviews' on Russian restaurants telling them what is happening. TripAdivsor and Yandex.

[Garvin]

steveo3002 said:

i think if he cant win then he will go out in a blaze of glory

no way is he skulking off with his tail between his legs

Unlikely. Look how he is terrified of the Rona. Look at his love of power, wealth and luxury. This is someone who doesn’t want to ‘go out’ in a blaze of anything.

[Petrus1983]

Belarusian troops have entered Ukraine according to a Kyiv Twitter feed.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1498599...

[Whoozit]

youngsyr said:

There are elements of this war that clearly don't make sense as they are being presented to us. That can only mean we're missing key pieces of information.

Completely agree. Which for me, makes the Western united front and application of sanctions even more powerful.

Even Switzerland, ffs. The most neutral country in the world. That's what makes chills run down my spine. They all know waaaaay more than we do here on PH.

[Krupp88]

768 said:

J210 said:

Question for military experts. Is it common for such a high failure rate of unexploded weapons ? Lots of pictures in different places of all sorts that hasn't blown.

Not a military expert, but I don't think it's abnormal with cluster submunitions. They leave a nasty legacy once the fighting's stopped.

If you have seen the pictures of what look like un-exploded rockets embedded in the ground these are just the rocket motor sections, the cluster devices are held further up the missile in a unit which separates to release the sub munitions.

[Chubbyross]

vaud said:

Chubbyross said:

I’d be interested to hear others’ views on how Putin can get out of this. The Russian ethos is all about strength. As the Rouble continues to slide he’ll come under more pressure from home - as well as continuing sanctions from abroad. Putin can’t and won’t back down. How can this end up any other way than nuclear? He’s said in the past that a world without Russia isn’t worth having. He sees himself as the personification of Russia. I’m feel rather pessimistic about this whole thing right now.

Military coup? I cant see the generals opting for destruction of the motherland either...

I guess it boils down to how indoctrinated those generals are in the paranoia that Putin seems to suffer from and fears around being seen somehow as weak. I fear a similar situation we saw with Trump in the final few months. A cornered animal has nothing left to lose. If we turn back the clocks 70-odd years and ask ourselves what Hitler would have done if nuclear weapons had been available and the Allies and Russia were knocking on the doors of Berlin. Would he have launched an all-out strike on the world? I very much doubt he would have hesitated.

[Whoozit]

A bit of light relief.... pilots must draw straws on who gets to fly this one each morning

[Dog Star]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

This is why I think the outlook is particularly bleak. The outcomes - as I see them ultimately run to on of....

a. Russian forces start getting such a massive kicking that tactical nukes get used.
b. NATO may or may not step in at this point. This may or may not involve nuclear weapons when it starts going even worse for Russia; I cannot see their forces standing up against EU/NATO forces and sophisticated weaponry at all. So he will need his tactical nuclear stuff.
c. if he takes or does not fully take Ukraine but nobody else gets involved he is therefore empowered - next up Latvia/Lithuania/Estonia. He is pretty certain nobody will help, NATO or not.
d. NATO does step up to the plate and defends - see point b. He goes nuclear.
e. If he takes Estonia etc unopposed well then that's it - Poland is next up.

I don't see how any of the above isn't a logical progression and doesn't fit in with his aims. At some point NATO *must* step up and stop him, but no matter when they do this he will use nuclear weapons. I see no option.

My point is that if he is willing to even consider using them in the event his conventional forces get a kicking then it's inevitable that he will use them. On this basis maybe we should just say "fk it" and do him first. I'm also pretty sure that his stuff - if the rest of his gear is any indication - will probably not work, blow up in the silo or simply doesn't exist.

It's a good thing I'm not a military adviser or General or something really I'd best stick to my day job.

[aeropilot]

GravelBen said:

Someone pointed out to me that Poland has been positively swarming with small private aircraft on flightradar the last few hours, including groups flying around in circles together etc.

Wonder if they've been organised through aero clubs etc to try and cover for something else? Like Ukrainian pilots picking up their new Mig-29s perhaps.

Maybe retired older Ukrainian pilots that have managed to get into Poland getting some basic refresher training to be able to take the MiG's back across the border. They have lost a lot of their current active high ranking pilots already, including Colonel Oksanchenko who was killed over Kyiv on Friday flying his Su-27, and been award Hero of Ukraine postumously. Colonel Oksanchenko won the award for best solo jet display here in the UK at the Royal International Air Tattoo in 2017.

[Iamnotkloot]

Krupp88 said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

That is the conclusion I have also come to, whilst fully understanding the pro Ukrainian media narrative (and popular public sentiment) the reality must be that the bulk of Russian force and capability has been held back. They should be capable of blasting a corridor into whichever objective they have in mind, and defending that path.

The pretext for the ratcheting up of force being the supply of arms to a hostile (as Putin sees it) state from outside that increases the threat to Russia and the economic warfare (sanctions, SWIFT ect) being waged against them.

Yeah, unfortunately, I kinda agree with this. I think Russia has been fighting with gloves on so far, and that might now be changing. They are primarily an artillery army, which hasn't been let loose fully yet. It may get a lot worse. One thing that may be staying their hand is that flattening cities creates wonderful cover for infantry to fight from, so it's not always a good idea. But that's what they did to Grozny in the 2nd Chechen war so.......

[anonymous-user]

This was a statement from a few hours ago, paints an interesting picture of Belarus’ position

Belarus will not join invasion - Lukashenko
The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has told state media that his forces will not join Russian troops in the invasion of Ukraine.

Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, said that the "Belarusian army isn't taking part in military action, and never did".

"We can prove this to anyone. More than that, the Russian leadership never raised this issue with us - our involvement in the armed conflict. And we don't intend to take part in this special operation in Ukraine in the future. There is no need for this."

Fears had been raised on Monday that Lukashenko was preparing to send a military force to join in the attack on Kyiv.

A spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, said on Monday that Russia had "make a mockery" of Belarus' sovereignty by launching its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory.

[stitched]

I think this is the first time in written history where not only the removal of a single human would resolve matters, but the capacity to do so exists.
I wouldn't cry.

[Byker28i]

aeropilot said:

GravelBen said:

Someone pointed out to me that Poland has been positively swarming with small private aircraft on flightradar the last few hours, including groups flying around in circles together etc.

Wonder if they've been organised through aero clubs etc to try and cover for something else? Like Ukrainian pilots picking up their new Mig-29s perhaps.

Maybe retired older Ukrainian pilots that have managed to get into Poland getting some basic refresher training to be able to take the MiG's back across the border. They have lost a lot of their current active high ranking pilots already, including Colonel Oksanchenko who was killed over Kyiv on Friday flying his Su-27, and been award Hero of Ukraine postumously. Colonel Oksanchenko won the award for best solo jet display here in the UK at the Royal International Air Tattoo in 2017.

Posted that link to his display earlier
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2017/07/18/ukrainia...

[Sway]

Confirmation that Belarusian forces have entered the fray then, as reported.

[Puggit]

Krupp88 said:

If you have seen the pictures of what look like un-exploded rockets embedded in the ground these are just the rocket motor sections, the cluster devices are held further up the missile in a unit which separates to release the sub munitions.

The ridiculous thing being it leaves something of a trace that illegal weapons have been used. Russia didn't sign up to the cluster munitions treaty - but they are signed up to Geneva Convention which prevents attacking civilians

[troc]

AngryPartsBloke said:

I saw a video from Ukraine yesterday of a Cyclist going out on his road bike full skin tight lycra past Tanks. People are strange.

Hope he shaved his legs. Gotta obey The Rules.

[Ayahuasca]

With Russia frozen out of most of the world’s economy, their currency collapsed and their interest rates at 20%, how long can they afford to sustain an expensive war?

[BikeBikeBIke]

stitched said:

I think this is the first time in written history where not only the removal of a single human would resolve matters, but the capacity to do so exists.
I wouldn't cry.

+1

"Our old leader went mad we killed him and we're pulling out" would be the ultimate way to leave Ukraine without losing face and reset global politics to 10 days ago.

Still don't think it likely in the short term.

Medium/Long term Putin's history.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Tuesday 1st March 10:25

[Digga]

Krupp88 said:

768 said:

J210 said:

Question for military experts. Is it common for such a high failure rate of unexploded weapons ? Lots of pictures in different places of all sorts that hasn't blown.

Not a military expert, but I don't think it's abnormal with cluster submunitions. They leave a nasty legacy once the fighting's stopped.

If you have seen the pictures of what look like un-exploded rockets embedded in the ground these are just the rocket motor sections, the cluster devices are held further up the missile in a unit which separates to release the sub munitions.

Going back to the corruption and backhanders implicit in the Russian regime, who really knows how much of the stuff delivered is 'real' (i.e. not dummy) and fully functional until it is deployed?