Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 7)

[FiF]

sambucket said:

FiF said:

Whichever side you're on then one thing is for sure, this thread and volume is going to be worth revisiting in February 2021 just to see some of the opinions which are being currently stated as fact.

Clearly one hopes the situation isn't as per Sir Patrick Vallance's latest reasonable worst case scenario. Yeah yeah modelling schmodelling.

Is there a link to the new report please?

There was a link to a reasonable summary on the previous page from Turbobloke. In short it assumes there is a second wave with R rising from 0.9 currently to 1.7, that Govt doesn't take any action in form of wide lockdown, coincides with a bad flu season, no use of dexamethasone proven to improve outcomes in severe cases. Essentially worst case double the deaths in hospital seen in wave 1, not including care home or community deaths. Figure of up to 120,000 as worst case scenario mentioned.

The same coverage is in Telegraph but behind paywall if you want an alternative view to Grauniad.

Also mentioned is differing outcomes across various NHS trusts for Covid-19 patients admitted to ICU. Best trust in London, 1 in 8 died, worst unnamed trust in Wales 8 out of 10 perished, E+W average 38% from memory.

[eharding]

FiF said:

turbobloke said:

jimothyc said:

Despite the best efforts of bats and pangolins to kill us off, it looks like we have an unlikely champion from the animal kingdom coming to our rescue, llamas!

https://epsrc.ukri.org/newsevents/news/engineered-...

Fifi's nanobody cocktail could soon be legendary.

Not to mention alpacas, just so cute, friendly yet nosey with it.

We'll see how friendly they are when they find out we want to drain all of their blood for the nanobodies.

[anonymous-user]

FiF said:

turbobloke said:

jimothyc said:

Despite the best efforts of bats and pangolins to kill us off, it looks like we have an unlikely champion from the animal kingdom coming to our rescue, llamas!

https://epsrc.ukri.org/newsevents/news/engineered-...

Fifi's nanobody cocktail could soon be legendary.

Not to mention alpacas, just so cute, friendly yet nosey with it.

On our list of things to buy when Mrs C retires.

[hairykrishna]

FiF said:

sambucket said:

FiF said:

Whichever side you're on then one thing is for sure, this thread and volume is going to be worth revisiting in February 2021 just to see some of the opinions which are being currently stated as fact.

Clearly one hopes the situation isn't as per Sir Patrick Vallance's latest reasonable worst case scenario. Yeah yeah modelling schmodelling.

Is there a link to the new report please?

There was a link to a reasonable summary on the previous page from Turbobloke. In short it assumes there is a second wave with R rising from 0.9 currently to 1.7, that Govt doesn't take any action in form of wide lockdown, coincides with a bad flu season, no use of dexamethasone proven to improve outcomes in severe cases. Essentially worst case double the deaths in hospital seen in wave 1, not including care home or community deaths. Figure of up to 120,000 as worst case scenario mentioned.

The same coverage is in Telegraph but behind paywall if you want an alternative view to Grauniad.

Also mentioned is differing outcomes across various NHS trusts for Covid-19 patients admitted to ICU. Best trust in London, 1 in 8 died, worst unnamed trust in Wales 8 out of 10 perished, E+W average 38% from memory.

https://acmedsci.ac.uk/file-download/51353957

[RTB]

jimothyc said:

Despite the best efforts of bats and pangolins to kill us off, it looks like we have an unlikely champion from the animal kingdom coming to our rescue, llamas!

https://epsrc.ukri.org/newsevents/news/engineered-...

Camelid antibodies have been around for years, there was a big flurry of excitement in the early 2000s as they looked like they could be the next big thing in therapeutic antibodies. I think in the last 20 years there's been one approved product based on camelid nanobodies.

For this sort of application, I'm not sure they offer many advantages. There are loads of projects to produce engineered human IgG for passive immunity. There's a group in my company who are looking to start trials on a recombinant human IgG in the coming months. The pre-clinical data looks very promising.

[FiF]

eharding said:

FiF said:

turbobloke said:

jimothyc said:

Despite the best efforts of bats and pangolins to kill us off, it looks like we have an unlikely champion from the animal kingdom coming to our rescue, llamas!

https://epsrc.ukri.org/newsevents/news/engineered-...

Fifi's nanobody cocktail could soon be legendary.

Not to mention alpacas, just so cute, friendly yet nosey with it.

We'll see how friendly they are when they find out we want to drain all of their blood for the nanobodies.

Maybe take a leaf out of the blood donor service, nice cup of tea, biscuit and a lie down.

[red_slr]

What I find interesting now is that most EU countries have reduced to "background" noise in terms of new cases, basically for all of June and July most countries have seen cases remain flat maybe a few hundred a day.

I find that weird that its so level over such a long period of time. I would have thought cases would go up or down.

I guess the number of test has gone up though.

Anyway, just strange how it seems to be such a straight line at the moment.

[eharding]

FiF said:

eharding said:

FiF said:

turbobloke said:

jimothyc said:

Despite the best efforts of bats and pangolins to kill us off, it looks like we have an unlikely champion from the animal kingdom coming to our rescue, llamas!

https://epsrc.ukri.org/newsevents/news/engineered-...

Fifi's nanobody cocktail could soon be legendary.

Not to mention alpacas, just so cute, friendly yet nosey with it.

We'll see how friendly they are when they find out we want to drain all of their blood for the nanobodies.

Maybe take a leaf out of the blood donor service, nice cup of tea, biscuit and a lie down.

Alpaca said:

"I don't mind giving a reasonable amount, but a pint! That's very nearly a haunch-full!"

[JagLover]

Cold said:

"German study finds low Covid-19 infection rate in schools
Tests of pupils and teachers in Saxony suggest children may act as brake on infection."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/13/germ...

The Guardian reports this as if it is surprising when it is merely the latest in a long line of similar studies which the British media have mostly ignored.

[FiF]

eharding said:

FiF said:

eharding said:

FiF said:

turbobloke said:

jimothyc said:

Despite the best efforts of bats and pangolins to kill us off, it looks like we have an unlikely champion from the animal kingdom coming to our rescue, llamas!

https://epsrc.ukri.org/newsevents/news/engineered-...

Fifi's nanobody cocktail could soon be legendary.

Not to mention alpacas, just so cute, friendly yet nosey with it.

We'll see how friendly they are when they find out we want to drain all of their blood for the nanobodies.

Maybe take a leaf out of the blood donor service, nice cup of tea, biscuit and a lie down.

Alpaca said:

"I don't mind giving a reasonable amount, but a pint! That's very nearly a haunch-full!"

People, you have just been reading HHHHHHHHarding's HHHalf Hour.

[sunbeam alpine]

FiF said:

turbobloke said:

jimothyc said:

Despite the best efforts of bats and pangolins to kill us off, it looks like we have an unlikely champion from the animal kingdom coming to our rescue, llamas!

https://epsrc.ukri.org/newsevents/news/engineered-...

Fifi's nanobody cocktail could soon be legendary.

Not to mention alpacas, just so cute, friendly yet nosey with it.

[JagLover]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Its important to keep restrictions in place though. Otherwise we will get a second wave and we will all die.

[FunkyNige]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Wasn't that the case weeks ago?
Found a link from 10Jun2020
"The top teams rushing to develop coronavirus vaccines are alerting governments, health officials and shareholders that they may have a big problem: The outbreaks in their countries may be getting too small to quickly determine whether vaccines work."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/corona...

[vaud]

FunkyNige said:

Wasn't that the case weeks ago?
Found a link from 10Jun2020
"The top teams rushing to develop coronavirus vaccines are alerting governments, health officials and shareholders that they may have a big problem: The outbreaks in their countries may be getting too small to quickly determine whether vaccines work."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/corona...

Which is why they are doing trials in Brazil and Africa.

[rover 623gsi]

rover 623gsi said:

new positive tests and deaths

Monday 13 July - 530 / 11
Monday 6 July - 352 / 16
Monday 29 June - 735 / 25
Monday 22 June - 865 / 15
Monday 15 June - 874 / 38
Monday 8 June - 1,089 / 55
Monday 1 June - 1,418 / 111

...

7 days new positive tests and deaths

30 June - 6 July - 3,958 (ave 565.4) / 661 (ave 94.4)
7 July - 13 July - 4,365 (ave 623.5) / 594 (ave 84.8)

we have seen a few times in the past week there has a rise in the number of positive tests compared to the corresponding day in the previous week. This is disappointing, but I remain of the view that this is a combination of more testing (especially at Pillar Two) and localised outbreaks. There is no need to panic but we should 'stay alert'.

new positive tests and deaths

Tuesday 14 July - 398 / 138
Tuesday 7 July - 534 / 155
Tuesday 30 June - 569 / 155
Tuesday 23 June - 730 / 171
Tuesday 16 June - 994 / 236
Tuesday 9 June - 1,059 / 289
Tuesday 2 June - 1,345 / 326

after a few days of small increases compared to the same day the previous week it's encouraging to see the downward trend back on

[i4got]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

It's not just us. Japan have had to slow their trials for he same reason.

[loafer123]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

That was ages ago.

Oxford have been testing in Brazil and SA for weeks.

[FiF]

loafer123 said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

That was ages ago.

Oxford have been testing in Brazil and SA for weeks.

Yet only recently had a request if wanted to sign up for selection to participate in a vaccine trial.

Refused the last request which was for hydroxychloroquine trial. No thank you.

[Welshbeef]

Great news apparently per Imperial College London they sampled 120,000 people during May and found that R was much lower than the previously govt announced.

Revised is 0.57 and it was 0.9-1.1

This is actually like Germany so all those badgers of the U.K. can now reevaluate. Clearly we had a much wider infection of the population hence why higher deaths but as a % no different to anyone else or possibly MUCH lower. Time will tell.

[AmitG]

Welshbeef said:

Great news apparently per Imperial College London they sampled 120,000 people during May and found that R was much lower than the previously govt announced.

Revised is 0.57 and it was 0.9-1.1

This is actually like Germany so all those badgers of the U.K. can now reevaluate. Clearly we had a much wider infection of the population hence why higher deaths but as a % no different to anyone else or possibly MUCH lower. Time will tell.

That is good news for sure. Any link to the study and/or news coverage?