North Korea - how serious should we take them?
Discussion
MDMetal said:
Makes perfect sense, if you feel your now on an equal footing, declare the war over, sort the border out get trade started, they still have their nukes but no doubt a country not at war and negotiating is better than a rouge state with nukes. The war staying ongoing doesn't solve anything for anyone
Just a cotton pickin' minute.The other week Fatty was offering to get rid of his nukes. If SK says OK, let's shake now - what's next?
The nuke capability from the North will still be there, SK will have lowered their guard because they like the thought of receiving a Christmas card from their new neighbour, and there's a chance the US will have been asked to leave SK as part of the deal. What part of that is a satisfactory outcome?
Cobnapint said:
Just a cotton pickin' minute.
The other week Fatty was offering to get rid of his nukes. If SK says OK, let's shake now - what's next?
The nuke capability from the North will still be there, SK will have lowered their guard because they like the thought of receiving a Christmas card from their new neighbour, and there's a chance the US will have been asked to leave SK as part of the deal. What part of that is a satisfactory outcome?
Seems like a pretty good one to me if NK is willing to move towards normalising relations.The other week Fatty was offering to get rid of his nukes. If SK says OK, let's shake now - what's next?
The nuke capability from the North will still be there, SK will have lowered their guard because they like the thought of receiving a Christmas card from their new neighbour, and there's a chance the US will have been asked to leave SK as part of the deal. What part of that is a satisfactory outcome?
I'm not in the camp that says "we" get to tell "them" what to do all the time. We've let Israel hold undeclared nuclear weapons for decades. The USA started destroying chemical weapons at the fastest practicable rate (ha ha) in 1997, and still has over 10% left to go - hardly the sort of progress that would be accepted from, say, a "rogue state" never mind a superpower.
Our aim can only ever be to bring all nations into the fold of normalising international relations. Some will be allies, some will be unwelcoming. Some will trade with us, some will not. But they all have to have some allies; they all have to trade with some other countries. Otherwise what? Isolated rogue states developing weapons in a vacuum surrounded by paranoia?
The USSR did not collapse into a democratic heaven; it begat post-Soviet Russia. But we still welcomed the change. China continues to pursue enormously one-sided trade, diplomatic and military campaigns, but we accept that as the price of doing business, of welcoming China into the international community. The list goes on.
We have the capability to destroy NK a thousand times over. We had that before, and we still have it. The realistic threat to us and to overall world peace from an "internationalised" nuclear-capable NK is in round terms zero IMHO.
So we accept the realpolitik of the situation and find a new accommodation. To quote the Japanese executive in Die Hard (low rent, sorry) "when bombs didn't work, we got you with tape decks." We open our borders and we invite them in (but we remain wary). We try hard to spread culture and values. The USB stick programme; satellite transmissions; mobile phones; whatever. Little by little we allow daylight to penetrate the dusty old cupboards of NK.
That's really all there is, unless you actually want to bomb them back into the stone age?
You've fallen for the cute sister trick haven't you?
Trump insisted all along that NK should not have nukes.
KJU wants to enter into talks which offer de-nuclearisation - so far so good.
Anything other than Kim not keeping his nukes at the end of all this will be a complete failure on the US's part. Friends or not,
Trump insisted all along that NK should not have nukes.
KJU wants to enter into talks which offer de-nuclearisation - so far so good.
Anything other than Kim not keeping his nukes at the end of all this will be a complete failure on the US's part. Friends or not,
http://thehill.com/policy/international/asia-pacif...
Mike Pompeo met with Kim it would seem.
Must admit that if 45 does this, I will need to eat a hat.
Mike Pompeo met with Kim it would seem.
Must admit that if 45 does this, I will need to eat a hat.
Halb said:
If the war ends, and peace settles in, we all win
you think?I find this a potentially very dangerous situation.
NK still has Nukes. NK now has momentum to work out a "unified" Korea, which is what it was after all along. That won't end well.
the US has lost a reason to maintain presence right next to Beijing providing a massive deterrent to the country that is the real threat.
NK can and will (judging by history) renege on any deal without a hesitation, not necessarily for any reason, just because it makes them feel powerful.
NK doesn't need to test nukes anymore, it has them, they work. It just needs to test missiles now, which it will keep on doing. The alternative is once it opens it's borders it will just buy them in.
Status Quo was what was needed IMO, then a slow political change within NK.
Efbe said:
Halb said:
If the war ends, and peace settles in, we all win
you think?I find this a potentially very dangerous situation.
NK still has Nukes. NK now has momentum to work out a "unified" Korea, which is what it was after all along. That won't end well.
the US has lost a reason to maintain presence right next to Beijing providing a massive deterrent to the country that is the real threat.
NK can and will (judging by history) renege on any deal without a hesitation, not necessarily for any reason, just because it makes them feel powerful.
NK doesn't need to test nukes anymore, it has them, they work. It just needs to test missiles now, which it will keep on doing. The alternative is once it opens it's borders it will just buy them in.
Status Quo was what was needed IMO, then a slow political change within NK.
An a unified Korea would only ever be in the form of what the South is like. So the North would have to embrace technology, capitalism and to some degree, democracy. It’s not like a unified Korea could be in the North’s image in any way.
p1stonhead said:
Ending the war would surely be based on them giving up their nukes and allowing people in to prove it’s happened?
An a unified Korea would only ever be in the form of what the South is like. So the North would have to embrace technology, capitalism and to some degree, democracy. It’s not like a unified Korea could be in the North’s image in any way.
I'm not so sure.An a unified Korea would only ever be in the form of what the South is like. So the North would have to embrace technology, capitalism and to some degree, democracy. It’s not like a unified Korea could be in the North’s image in any way.
India has democratic states and also Kerala, a communist one (sometimes). know very little about the place, but it seems to work, Kerala has good literacy, crime rates etc. A mixture of political types can work.
Both NK and SK want reunification. Once unified it makes Korea a nuclear country. I would bet the NK could even sell that to SK (through the media which is heavily NK influenced anyhow)
Don't forget that SK politics is complete s
t. The last president was impeached on bribery, the one before that should have been impeached on bribery and tax evasion IIRC, the current one , moon jae in is the son of NK refugees, doesn't like the US presence or their missile shield, and is quite pro-NK. Forget US posturing, Moon Jae In is the reason we have traction with reunification now.Politics in Korea is much more like celebrity big brother or a soap opera than our own politics. It's hysterical, fought in the media with ridiculous claims against each other, vast over reactionary statements and arguments that belong on Eastenders. It's not logical and certainly doesn't follow the rules we are used to.
Efbe said:
Halb said:
Efbe said:
Halb said:
If the war ends, and peace settles in, we all win
you think?
though methinks you believed too much around the hype of how dangerous NK actually were/are
I'm not sure, it's possible. I just think of the poor sods in NK, who live in the Matrix/Dark City. It's better more people chat and jaw jaw. Nest thing is if tensions lower, then that's good, and stop playing with silly nuclear weapons
Maybe it's simply been Kim Jong Un's plan all along to first secure his power over the country, then approach SK and after that China and the West to introduce some trade and business relations between NK and the rest of the world.
When he first came to power, his immediate problem was that he was young and inexperienced, and potentially at risk from more experienced generals of an internal coup and the end of the Kim dynasty. Or at least his branch of it. He ruthlessly purged perceived enemies, even including relatives (brother, uncle, maybe others). His power now seems assured. His next threat would be from a popular uprising due to hunger, lack of consumer goods etc. There's a reasonable lifestyle available to party members who live in Pyongyang so far as I can tell, and the city is protected from the rural population who are brutally repressed and under threat of the 3 generation rule when it comes to crimes against the state. Do all this whilst obtaining a nuclear deterrent to secure his position from outside threats as well. Maybe he's learnt the lessons of the USSR's collapse by doing it this way, making certain of power before introducing his own limited versions of "glasnost" and "perestroika". Now perhaps the three pieces of the puzzle to maintain power are in place, he can approach the outside world more confidently.
So power base secured, population unlikely to revolt. Now he can start to introduce more open relations with the outside world, perhaps get sanctions lifted and start exporting the raw materials they have an importing the food and consumer goods he needs to make the population further averse to revolt.
Just a layman's view, I have no special knowledge of the country or situation. Fire away with counter points and critique. Maybe the bloke really is an evil genius.
When he first came to power, his immediate problem was that he was young and inexperienced, and potentially at risk from more experienced generals of an internal coup and the end of the Kim dynasty. Or at least his branch of it. He ruthlessly purged perceived enemies, even including relatives (brother, uncle, maybe others). His power now seems assured. His next threat would be from a popular uprising due to hunger, lack of consumer goods etc. There's a reasonable lifestyle available to party members who live in Pyongyang so far as I can tell, and the city is protected from the rural population who are brutally repressed and under threat of the 3 generation rule when it comes to crimes against the state. Do all this whilst obtaining a nuclear deterrent to secure his position from outside threats as well. Maybe he's learnt the lessons of the USSR's collapse by doing it this way, making certain of power before introducing his own limited versions of "glasnost" and "perestroika". Now perhaps the three pieces of the puzzle to maintain power are in place, he can approach the outside world more confidently.
So power base secured, population unlikely to revolt. Now he can start to introduce more open relations with the outside world, perhaps get sanctions lifted and start exporting the raw materials they have an importing the food and consumer goods he needs to make the population further averse to revolt.
Just a layman's view, I have no special knowledge of the country or situation. Fire away with counter points and critique. Maybe the bloke really is an evil genius.
Can anybody see the following happening:
KJU agreeing to completely give up his hard fought for nuclear warheads and his weapon program with it.
Allowing UN weapons inspectors unfettered access to the darkest corners of NK to verify he's actually done it.
The US, completely trusting NK hasn't held anything back - ending it's presence in SK.
KJU agreeing to completely give up his hard fought for nuclear warheads and his weapon program with it.
Allowing UN weapons inspectors unfettered access to the darkest corners of NK to verify he's actually done it.
The US, completely trusting NK hasn't held anything back - ending it's presence in SK.
Cobnapint said:
Can anybody see the following happening:
KJU agreeing to completely give up his hard fought for nuclear warheads and his weapon program with it.
Allowing UN weapons inspectors unfettered access to the darkest corners of NK to verify he's actually done it.
The US, completely trusting NK hasn't held anything back - ending it's presence in SK.
Sure, that seems completely plausible...KJU agreeing to completely give up his hard fought for nuclear warheads and his weapon program with it.
Allowing UN weapons inspectors unfettered access to the darkest corners of NK to verify he's actually done it.
The US, completely trusting NK hasn't held anything back - ending it's presence in SK.
Even if he gives up his nuke program, he has one of the largest chemical and biological weapons stockpiles on the planet.
As I said above, I can't think of what North Korea could possibly say or do to convince South Korea that they are no longer a threat. Although, that is obviously up for South Korea to decide.
MellowshipSlinky said:
It’s remarkable how quickly things are moving. It’s great to see and i hope it continues. BlackLabel said:
MellowshipSlinky said:
It’s remarkable how quickly things are moving. It’s great to see and i hope it continues. On the surface it sounds good. But does really make much difference?
They are stopping testing as they are happy with their current nuclear ability.
Not because of superb international diplomacy from Trump (as if...!) or because they are willing to give up their nuclear arsenal.
The world hasn't suddenly become a safer place.
They are stopping testing as they are happy with their current nuclear ability.
Not because of superb international diplomacy from Trump (as if...!) or because they are willing to give up their nuclear arsenal.
The world hasn't suddenly become a safer place.
Efbe said:
BlackLabel said:
MellowshipSlinky said:
It’s remarkable how quickly things are moving. It’s great to see and i hope it continues. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff