Brexit Poll 1/2/16

[CaptainSlow]

Monty Python said:

I'd prefer a "remain for x years, then leave if things haven't improved". I'm not sure people in this country will have enough genuine information to make a properly informed decision - at the moment the news seems to be full of misinformation.

Define improved. Do you think the Government occasionally fudges the numbers? Do you trust politicians to act in your best interest?

[Esseesse]

Monty Python said:

I'd prefer a "remain for x years, then leave if things haven't improved". I'm not sure people in this country will have enough genuine information to make a properly informed decision - at the moment the news seems to be full of misinformation.

The best option, and only proper way to leave would be for the electorate to vote for a party committed to leaving. Any referendum is a distraction.

[BlackLabel]

We now have 1000+ people polled here, that's the minimum number most polling companies are using as a sample.

On here we have the "leave" + "leaning towards leave" at 70% and the "stay" + "leaning towards stay" at 27%.

Official polling on the other hand (with a similar sample size) has remain ahead by around 5 points.

Not long to find out who was closer to the actual result.

[Esseesse]

BlackLabel said:

We now have 1000+ people polled here, that's the minimum number most polling companies are using as a sample.

On here we have the "leave" + "leaning towards leave" at 70% and the "stay" + "leaning towards stay" at 27%.

Official polling on the other hand (with a similar sample size) has remain ahead by around 5 points.

Not long to find out who was closer to the actual result.

Can it be added to the 'poll of polls' on Wikipedia?

[sealtt]

CaptainSlow said:

Define improved. Do you think the Government occasionally fudges the numbers? Do you trust politicians to act in your best interest?

You do realise that if the vote is to leave, then that government and those same politicians will still be making the decisions that shape the country? A vote to leave does not change the fundamental flaws with 'big democracy'.

[blindswelledrat]

Esseesse said:

Monty Python said:

I'd prefer a "remain for x years, then leave if things haven't improved". I'm not sure people in this country will have enough genuine information to make a properly informed decision - at the moment the news seems to be full of misinformation.

The best option, and only proper way to leave would be for the electorate to vote for a party committed to leaving. Any referendum is a distraction.

My sentiments too.
As far as I am concerned this referendum could not come at a worse time.
The economy has been glacially edging towards solvency for a few years now, and the thought of upsetting that right now on some vague hope that it might be better in the long term is madness to me.
In ten years time with a strong economy, I might feel completely different. Basically a vote to leave Europe should be one of confidence rather than baseless hope.

[loafer123]

blindswelledrat said:

Basically a vote to leave Europe should be one of confidence rather than baseless hope.

It can never be this.

Unless the government and the EU both wanted us to leave, any vote will always be the Status Quo v. Unknown.

It doesn't stop us working out what is likely to happen, but equally those wanting us to remain will also hold the fear factor of the unknown over the floating voter.

[anonymous-user]

blindswelledrat said:

Basically a vote to leave Europe should be one of confidence rather than baseless hope.

You could say exactly the same for a vote to stay.

[blindswelledrat]

garyhun said:

blindswelledrat said:

Basically a vote to leave Europe should be one of confidence rather than baseless hope.

You could say exactly the same for a vote to stay.

I agree that there is no firm evidence that we would be better off in the EU, but we do know that we are steadily getting financially healthier in it, so why risk that?

[turbobloke]

blindswelledrat said:

garyhun said:

blindswelledrat said:

Basically a vote to leave Europe should be one of confidence rather than baseless hope.

You could say exactly the same for a vote to stay.

I agree that there is no firm evidence that we would be better off in the EU, but we do know that we are steadily getting financially healthier in it, so why risk that?

Because the risk also includes being better off as well as worse off, because even if we go with the downside that's purely short-term at best given uncertainty in modelling (outputs will largely reproduce the modellers' assumptions), and because further down the line we cannot say what harm remaining in the dysfunctional undemocractic control freak EU will cause.

With the EU's established preference for propping up credibility in Das Projekt over the plight of peoples in its member nation states who have already been harmed economically and otherwise, why risk that?

[loafer123]

blindswelledrat said:

garyhun said:

blindswelledrat said:

Basically a vote to leave Europe should be one of confidence rather than baseless hope.

You could say exactly the same for a vote to stay.

I agree that there is no firm evidence that we would be better off in the EU, but we do know that we are steadily getting financially healthier in it, so why risk that?

We know that we are steadily getting financially healthier, but is despite the EU, not because of it - just look at the performance of the other major EU countries.

[blindswelledrat]

turbobloke said:

Because the risk also includes being better off as well as worse off, because even if we go with the downside that's purely short-term at best given uncertainty in modelling (outputs will largely reproduce the modellers' assumptions), and because further down the line we cannot say what harm remaining in the dysfunctional undemocractic control freak EU will cause.

With the EU's established preference for propping up credibility in Das Projekt over the plight of peoples in its member nation states who have already been harmed economically and otherwise, why risk that?

Well we've been in in it 40 years or so, so I think we have a fair idea of what it will be like to remain despite your intimation that something horrific is spiralling out of control. And we have literally zero idea of what will happen if we leave, hence my rather un-contentious claim of better-the-devil. Amazed you're even trying to twist that one.

[KrissKross]

blindswelledrat said:

Well we've been in in it 40 years or so,

How many countries were involved then and who were they?

[blindswelledrat]

loafer123 said:

blindswelledrat said:

garyhun said:

blindswelledrat said:

Basically a vote to leave Europe should be one of confidence rather than baseless hope.

You could say exactly the same for a vote to stay.

I agree that there is no firm evidence that we would be better off in the EU, but we do know that we are steadily getting financially healthier in it, so why risk that?

We know that we are steadily getting financially healthier, but is despite the EU, not because of it - just look at the performance of the other major EU countries.

First click on a google suggests that the EUs growth is equal to, or slightly better than ours hence Im assuming that you are just guessing
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD...

[loafer123]

blindswelledrat said:

loafer123 said:

blindswelledrat said:

garyhun said:

blindswelledrat said:

Basically a vote to leave Europe should be one of confidence rather than baseless hope.

You could say exactly the same for a vote to stay.

I agree that there is no firm evidence that we would be better off in the EU, but we do know that we are steadily getting financially healthier in it, so why risk that?

We know that we are steadily getting financially healthier, but is despite the EU, not because of it - just look at the performance of the other major EU countries.

First click on a google suggests that the EUs growth is equal to, or slightly better than ours hence Im assuming that you are just guessing
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD...

Worth adding the UK to your graph.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD...

[blindswelledrat]

KrissKross said:

blindswelledrat said:

Well we've been in in it 40 years or so,

How many countries were involved then and who were they?

I don't really care. It doesn't change my point, it merely tries to confuse it.
No matter what anyone's reasons for wanting to leave, I don't think my very basic point that we know where we are in the EU and have no idea where we will be without it is arguable.

[John145]

loafer123 said:

blindswelledrat said:

loafer123 said:

blindswelledrat said:

garyhun said:

blindswelledrat said:

Basically a vote to leave Europe should be one of confidence rather than baseless hope.

You could say exactly the same for a vote to stay.

I agree that there is no firm evidence that we would be better off in the EU, but we do know that we are steadily getting financially healthier in it, so why risk that?

We know that we are steadily getting financially healthier, but is despite the EU, not because of it - just look at the performance of the other major EU countries.

First click on a google suggests that the EUs growth is equal to, or slightly better than ours hence Im assuming that you are just guessing
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD...

Worth adding the UK to your graph.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD...

Well blindswelledrat, I'm assuming you were just purposefully misrepresenting data?

[loafer123]

blindswelledrat said:

KrissKross said:

blindswelledrat said:

Well we've been in in it 40 years or so,

How many countries were involved then and who were they?

I don't really care. It doesn't change my point, it merely tries to confuse it.
No matter what anyone's reasons for wanting to leave, I don't think my very basic point that we know where we are in the EU and have no idea where we will be without it is arguable.

What you are describing sounds like behavioural inaction - which is why people die in plane crashes and don't leave burning buildings.

[amgmcqueen]

blindswelledrat said:

garyhun said:

blindswelledrat said:

Basically a vote to leave Europe should be one of confidence rather than baseless hope.

You could say exactly the same for a vote to stay.

I agree that there is no firm evidence that we would be better off in the EU, but we do know that we are steadily getting financially healthier in it, so why risk that?

Since when has it been about the money?

One thing we do know is that leaving our borders open to let millions of migrants flood the Country has made quality of life much lower than 20 years ago.

Staying in the EU will only let this madness continue.

[blindswelledrat]

John145 said:

loafer123 said:

blindswelledrat said:

loafer123 said:

blindswelledrat said:

garyhun said:

blindswelledrat said:

Basically a vote to leave Europe should be one of confidence rather than baseless hope.

You could say exactly the same for a vote to stay.

I agree that there is no firm evidence that we would be better off in the EU, but we do know that we are steadily getting financially healthier in it, so why risk that?

We know that we are steadily getting financially healthier, but is despite the EU, not because of it - just look at the performance of the other major EU countries.

First click on a google suggests that the EUs growth is equal to, or slightly better than ours hence Im assuming that you are just guessing
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD...

Worth adding the UK to your graph.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD...

Well blindswelledrat, I'm assuming you were just purposefully misrepresenting data?

Not purposefully no. I didn't think our GDP growth was anywhere near that high, but I am glad that Im wrong.
Either way, that graph does not in any way demonstrate that "we are getting financially healthier despite the EU" it merely demonstrates that we are above average in overall EU growth.