How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
Croutons said:
People don't have a reasonably strong affinity (I'll stop short of "need") to live in tulip bulbs, which otherwise do not provide shelter, warmth and a sense of security.
But that has been the case since day 0, and doesn't explain what we have seen since the turn of the centuryscenario8 said:
p1stonhead said:
scenario8 said:
Prices haven't doubled in Reigate in the last three years.
Not far off in some locations but yeah probably more like since 2012 not 2014. 40% certainly in some of the better areas. 
It works out that nearly 13% of new builds in London are sold to foreign investors. The Chinese reputedly prefer these, but I'd like to see figures for existing properties too to confirm.
In Australia there are restrictions on sales of existing properties to non-residents, so foreign investors are supposed to be restricted to new builds. 25% of these in Sydney and 17% in Melbourne are sold to overseas buyers.
There are reports in the Australian media of there being fewer Chinese buyers, and of difficulties in them completing on off-the-plan purchases. Some of this is down to Beijing tightening capital controls, whilst there have been regulatory changes, and increases in property taxes paid by non-residents.
In Australia there are restrictions on sales of existing properties to non-residents, so foreign investors are supposed to be restricted to new builds. 25% of these in Sydney and 17% in Melbourne are sold to overseas buyers.
There are reports in the Australian media of there being fewer Chinese buyers, and of difficulties in them completing on off-the-plan purchases. Some of this is down to Beijing tightening capital controls, whilst there have been regulatory changes, and increases in property taxes paid by non-residents.
Graemsay said:
It works out that nearly 13% of new builds in London are sold to foreign investors. The Chinese reputedly prefer these, but I'd like to see figures for existing properties too to confirm.
In Australia there are restrictions on sales of existing properties to non-residents, so foreign investors are supposed to be restricted to new builds. 25% of these in Sydney and 17% in Melbourne are sold to overseas buyers.
There are reports in the Australian media of there being fewer Chinese buyers, and of difficulties in them completing on off-the-plan purchases. Some of this is down to Beijing tightening capital controls, whilst there have been regulatory changes, and increases in property taxes paid by non-residents.
I would say its much much higher than 13%. more like 75%. In Australia there are restrictions on sales of existing properties to non-residents, so foreign investors are supposed to be restricted to new builds. 25% of these in Sydney and 17% in Melbourne are sold to overseas buyers.
There are reports in the Australian media of there being fewer Chinese buyers, and of difficulties in them completing on off-the-plan purchases. Some of this is down to Beijing tightening capital controls, whilst there have been regulatory changes, and increases in property taxes paid by non-residents.
Chinese dont like old properties , bad to live in a house that has already been lived in.
Chinese now have capital controls, new build off plan gives them time to get the cash out before completion.
Here's an article that was published yesterday about how tax changes in Australia are deterring overseas investors.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/are-chinese-propert...
Like in London, a large number are left vacant. Prosper Australia estimated that around 20% of investor owned properties, or 5% of the total stock, were unoccupied. This was done using water usage statistics.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/nearly-20-per-cent-...
https://www.domain.com.au/news/empty-homes-the-eco...
I think that foreign buyers are being scapegoated, whereas local investors are likely to have a bigger effect. For a start, nearly 50% of mortgage lending is for buy to let. Then they've got a number of tax breaks, such as negative gearing (losses on rent can be written off against income), which helps them outbid would-be homeowners.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/are-chinese-propert...
Like in London, a large number are left vacant. Prosper Australia estimated that around 20% of investor owned properties, or 5% of the total stock, were unoccupied. This was done using water usage statistics.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/nearly-20-per-cent-...
https://www.domain.com.au/news/empty-homes-the-eco...
I think that foreign buyers are being scapegoated, whereas local investors are likely to have a bigger effect. For a start, nearly 50% of mortgage lending is for buy to let. Then they've got a number of tax breaks, such as negative gearing (losses on rent can be written off against income), which helps them outbid would-be homeowners.
z4RRSchris said:
Graemsay said:
It works out that nearly 13% of new builds in London are sold to foreign investors. The Chinese reputedly prefer these, but I'd like to see figures for existing properties too to confirm.
In Australia there are restrictions on sales of existing properties to non-residents, so foreign investors are supposed to be restricted to new builds. 25% of these in Sydney and 17% in Melbourne are sold to overseas buyers.
There are reports in the Australian media of there being fewer Chinese buyers, and of difficulties in them completing on off-the-plan purchases. Some of this is down to Beijing tightening capital controls, whilst there have been regulatory changes, and increases in property taxes paid by non-residents.
I would say its much much higher than 13%. more like 75%. In Australia there are restrictions on sales of existing properties to non-residents, so foreign investors are supposed to be restricted to new builds. 25% of these in Sydney and 17% in Melbourne are sold to overseas buyers.
There are reports in the Australian media of there being fewer Chinese buyers, and of difficulties in them completing on off-the-plan purchases. Some of this is down to Beijing tightening capital controls, whilst there have been regulatory changes, and increases in property taxes paid by non-residents.
Chinese dont like old properties , bad to live in a house that has already been lived in.
Chinese now have capital controls, new build off plan gives them time to get the cash out before completion.
Burwood said:
Sheepshanks said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Depends where you start from. Was it really £200K in the mid-90's?Mind you, it has the 2009 price at £110K.
Sheepshanks said:
Burwood said:
Sheepshanks said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Depends where you start from. Was it really £200K in the mid-90's?Mind you, it has the 2009 price at £110K.
BOE 5/3 not to hike. Two broke ranks to vote to hike, are we reaching a turning point in the cycle? Im still not convinced, much like the weaker US dater didnt deter the FED from marching on with their plan. Inflation pressure is rising but its largely due to the weak pound, i think theres too many political unknowns for them to start playing out varying parameters, but inflation keeps rising i guess their choices are limited.
This is what sets mortgage rates, not house prices, as so many here seem to think. It sure will effect prices though.
This is what sets mortgage rates, not house prices, as so many here seem to think. It sure will effect prices though.
Edited by gibbon on Thursday 15th June 19:57
Interesting piece about overseas investors and the London property market from researchers at the LSE.
http://lselondonhousing.org/2017/06/overseas-inves...
http://lselondonhousing.org/2017/06/overseas-inves...
Graemsay said:
Interesting piece about overseas investors and the London property market from researchers at the LSE.
http://lselondonhousing.org/2017/06/overseas-inves...
Thanks - I have been looking for that!http://lselondonhousing.org/2017/06/overseas-inves...
A very interesting piece of research which dispels many myths.
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