Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread

[the-photographer]

Does Hancock agree there will be no reason not to open up on 21 June?

"That is literally the most important question to which we do not yet have a full answer," says Hancock.

"The data that we have is that in the hotspot areas around one in 10 of those in hospital are people who have had both jabs.

"The fact that 90% are people who have not yet been double vaccinated gives us a high degree of confidence that the vaccine is highly effective but it also shows - the fact there's 10% who have been double vaccinated - that it isn't 100% effective."

[CarlosFandango11]

simoid said:

RSTurboPaul said:

Nice casual grouping of a wide range of different personal opinions and concerns into one homogenous group that you can castigate and slur. Well done.


re: the modelling being gonads, it was shown to be gonads barely hours after the October(?) Press Conference slides showed '4000 deaths per day!!!' to justify November lockdown - a figure that still hasn't been exceeded by India (despite 'variants'), a country that Lord Sumption noted as having a failed lockdown and a population twenty times the size of ours.

Was 4,000 deaths a day not a worst case scenario if nothing was done when cases were doubling weekly or so? The modelling is the modelling, I reckon it’s fairer to say that use of the worst case scenario time and time again has turned out to be “crying wolf” in some ways.

Yes, but I don’t think facts are what he’s interested in.

Whilst recorded daily deaths in India are below 4K, actual daily deaths in India are well above 4K.
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1188

[Elysium]

the-photographer said:

Does Hancock agree there will be no reason not to open up on 21 June?

"That is literally the most important question to which we do not yet have a full answer," says Hancock.

"The data that we have is that in the hotspot areas around one in 10 of those in hospital are people who have had both jabs.

"The fact that 90% are people who have not yet been double vaccinated gives us a high degree of confidence that the vaccine is highly effective but it also shows - the fact there's 10% who have been double vaccinated - that it isn't 100% effective."

Interesting twitter thread here arguing that this 1 in 10 statistic shows vaccine efficacy could be as high as 98%

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/13978849612...

[Elysium]

The news was very negative today with reports of increasing cases:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-coronavirus...

I decided to take a look to see if this was being over stated and the good news is that is, at least to some extent.

Cases have topped 3,000 per day, which takes us back to early April levels. I don't think that is bad at all given the major changes made on the 17th May, which will be showing in the data now.

1. You can see the rise in cases here:



2. It's less obvious here when looking at Cases per 100k tests. However, the positive thing is that the Case Fatality Rate is much lower now than it was in early April.



3. Admissions remain pretty flat and deaths are still very low. Single figures for the last two weeks and averaging 5.5 per day:





4. This shows cases, admissions and deaths overlaid. We are three weeks from freedom day. At which we will see if the modest increase in cases now has any bearing on deaths:



In any event, in my opinion, the data looks pretty good for the 21st June. If Hancock is right and 75% of cases are already the Indian variant, then I think we are going to be fine:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57275276

[Terminator X]

^^ Not data but I'm saying no chance, it does not suit their narrative to relax everything 21 June.

TX.

[vaud]

Terminator X said:

^^ Not data but I'm saying no chance, it does not suit their narrative to relax everything 21 June.

TX.

You keep coming back to this stance.

Boris, who wants to be Mr Popular - why on earth would he actively want to delay it?

VD.

[Terminator X]

vaud said:

Terminator X said:

^^ Not data but I'm saying no chance, it does not suit their narrative to relax everything 21 June.

TX.

You keep coming back to this stance.

Boris, who wants to be Mr Popular - why on earth would he actively want to delay it?

VD.

£10 says no chance, let's see in a few weeks.

TX.

[vaud]

Terminator X said:

£10 says no chance, let's see in a few weeks.

TX.

I wasn't arguing on the outcome, more on the motivation (from the data). I don't think Boris likes lockdowns, constraints, etc. He's not an authoritarian (though I'd agree some of his influencers are).

[havoc]

Elysium said:

Interesting twitter thread here arguing that this 1 in 10 statistic shows vaccine efficacy could be as high as 98%

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/13978849612...

I thought it was a vast over-simplification of statistics...although I'm too rusty to have done any calcs myself (maths degree was 20-cough years ago...)

[loafer123]

The timing of the gaps is well thought out.

We will know by the 21st June if variants, relaxations or anything else is resulting in hospital admissions and fatalities, or whether vaccination has defeated it.

[Iminquarantine]

RSTurboPaul said:

'Anti-vax' is just a label now being applied to anyone who doesn't blindly do what they are told and get the jab 'for the greater good'. If it is not obvious that this is a deliberate ploy by Government and the complicit media, perhaps it is not me who is oblivious.

Yep, usual anti vaxxer that reckons they have it figured, while the large majority of people who can’t wait to get vaccinated and have a normal life somehow have it wrong.

[simoid]

Iminquarantine said:

RSTurboPaul said:

'Anti-vax’ is just a label now being applied to anyone who doesn't blindly do what they are told and get the jab 'for the greater good'. If it is not obvious that this is a deliberate ploy by Government and the complicit media, perhaps it is not me who is oblivious.

Yep, usual anti vaxxer that reckons they have it figured, while the large majority of people who can’t wait to get vaccinated and have a normal life somehow have it wrong.

I think Paul has got it spot on, tbf, other than suggesting anyone is getting injected with substances without assessing risks and benefits.

The government definitely want people to get vaccinated so we can all crack on without restrictions and the thought of this being a conspiracy seems counterintuitive, since they’re spending millions of pounds publicising it...!

But that’s not for the data analysis thread



Clocked this earlier and they seem to have jumped the gun - seems logical to me that more covid positives = more covid positives in hospital although it might not be a disaster if it’s just folk turning up for non-covid stuff and testing positive.

[anonymous-user]

Iminquarantine said:

RSTurboPaul said:

'Anti-vax' is just a label now being applied to anyone who doesn't blindly do what they are told and get the jab 'for the greater good'. If it is not obvious that this is a deliberate ploy by Government and the complicit media, perhaps it is not me who is oblivious.

Yep, usual anti vaxxer that reckons they have it figured, while the large majority of people who can’t wait to get vaccinated and have a normal life somehow have it wrong.

The jury is out on that

[Sahjahd]

A very helpful thread, thank you Elysium.

Please continue your analysis when you have the time.

[ruggedscotty]

Boris doesnt like lockdowns - he was the man that was going to go for cold heard afterall... if he could lift it then he would without a doubt.

but there is a fear, a huge fear with the cases, if these rise and it translates into increased hospitalisations they dont want that, so its all eyes on this increasing rise. Are we being led down the garden path, or do they have a real fear based on something that they know but not discussing...

One thing for sure this thrread is clarity and enlightening so thank you for detailing the figures so clearly. lot of effort in this.

[paulrockliffe]

Does anyone know what the general vaccination picture is in Europe?

My brother (40) is in Sweden and due to be vaccinated in a week or so. A friend (39) in the Czech Republic is due to be vaccinated at the same time. I'm 39 and had mine two weeks ago now. I was surprised by both, given the graphs I've seen that show Europe a lot further behind than that, so I had a look on the Reuters Corona Dashboard.

Number of doses administered to the adult population, expressed as a percentage and assuming all have had 2 doses:

UK - 49%
Sweden - 24%
Czech Republic - 25%

So give or take, we've administered double the doses, but we're only a few weeks ahead based on age.

Is it as simple as people that could have been vaccinated choosing not to? And if so, is the take-up not far to low to have any chance of lifting restrictions?

[CarlosFandango11]

paulrockliffe said:

Does anyone know what the general vaccination picture is in Europe?

My brother (40) is in Sweden and due to be vaccinated in a week or so. A friend (39) in the Czech Republic is due to be vaccinated at the same time. I'm 39 and had mine two weeks ago now. I was surprised by both, given the graphs I've seen that show Europe a lot further behind than that, so I had a look on the Reuters Corona Dashboard.

Number of doses administered to the adult population, expressed as a percentage and assuming all have had 2 doses:

UK - 49%
Sweden - 24%
Czech Republic - 25%

So give or take, we've administered double the doses, but we're only a few weeks ahead based on age.

Is it as simple as people that could have been vaccinated choosing not to? And if so, is the take-up not far to low to have any chance of lifting restrictions?

You’re comparing first vaccinations for individuals to national second dose vaccination rates, which isn’t useful.
Comparing to national first dose vaccination rates makes more sense, and as a % of adult population they are about 75%, 64% & 67% for UK, Sweden & Czechia. These are a lot closer and should explain why we’re only a few weeks ahead on first doses.

[paulrockliffe]

CarlosFandango11 said:

You’re comparing first vaccinations for individuals to national second dose vaccination rates, which isn’t useful.
Comparing to national first dose vaccination rates makes more sense, and as a % of adult population they are about 75%, 64% & 67% for UK, Sweden & Czechia. These are a lot closer and should explain why we’re only a few weeks ahead on first doses.

Am I? I thought the figures quoted are all doses administered divided by adult population, then halved to account for the fact that some people have had two doses/everyone will get two doses eventually:

"Czech Republic has administered at least 5,314,572 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 24.9% of the country’s population".

[CarlosFandango11]

paulrockliffe said:

CarlosFandango11 said:

You’re comparing first vaccinations for individuals to national second dose vaccination rates, which isn’t useful.
Comparing to national first dose vaccination rates makes more sense, and as a % of adult population they are about 75%, 64% & 67% for UK, Sweden & Czechia. These are a lot closer and should explain why we’re only a few weeks ahead on first doses.

Am I? I thought the figures quoted are all doses administered divided by adult population, then halved to account for the fact that some people have had two doses/everyone will get two doses eventually:

"Czech Republic has administered at least 5,314,572 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 24.9% of the country’s population".

Ah, I misread what you wrote, but my explanation is still valid.

The percentages you stated don’t give any indication of the split between first and second doses, so aren’t comparable to first vaccinations for individuals. About 61% of UK doses have been first doses, and about 73% of Swedish & Czech doses have been first doses.

You need to look at first dose vaccinations as a % of adult population, like my percentages above.

Also, UK total doses are approximately 65m, the UK adult population is about 53m, so your 49% for the UK should of been 61% - you might have gotten confused between the UK adult and total population?

[havoc]

Rather than throw numbers around, can you post the raw stats please?

I suspect (but can't be arsed to dig out the data as I've had a couple of glasses of wine) that the UK still IS further ahead on double-vaccinations, but because we're now having to second-vaccine a lot of people, the roll-out to the sub-40 adults has slowed down, allowing the European nations to catch up on the single-vaccine %s.