How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]

[okgo]

G-wiz said:

Aye. Serves as a reminder of the gerbil/ hamster whirling wheel you're on.

Is just a way of stopping my wife spend her salary on bags.

Most folk on a hamster wheel, just depends what they plan to step off to I suppose.

I haven’t ever given a second thought to the mortgage, personally. It’s a payment that must happen for the roof above us. It would cost a bit less if the mortgage were less. Nothing more.

Edited by okgo on Friday 31st March 23:50

[ooid]

These two little houses just sold recently, I believe under 3 months or so...


https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/62796186...

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/63675511...

[princeperch]

I've been taking a look at the latest completion prices recent released in areas I have an interest in or have previously lived in.

I wouldn't want to be trying to sell a flat in tower Hamlets right now. Flat values have seemingly taken an absolute pasting there.

[oyster]

Looks like Nationwide and Halifax surveys are diverging again.

[JagLover]

oyster said:

Looks like Nationwide and Halifax surveys are diverging again.

Yes that is interesting.

I have read an article that apparently Nationwide is closer to what is being seen on RICS surveys.

[oyster]

JagLover said:

oyster said:

Looks like Nationwide and Halifax surveys are diverging again.

Yes that is interesting.

I have read an article that apparently Nationwide is closer to what is being seen on RICS surveys.

It used to be that Nationwide had a southern bias and Halifax a northern one. So perhaps some north/south split on price growth/falls.

[skwdenyer]

oyster said:

JagLover said:

oyster said:

Looks like Nationwide and Halifax surveys are diverging again.

Yes that is interesting.

I have read an article that apparently Nationwide is closer to what is being seen on RICS surveys.

It used to be that Nationwide had a southern bias and Halifax a northern one. So perhaps some north/south split on price growth/falls.

Or perhaps demographics? NW seem to be cheaper stock.

And neither of course include non-mortgage purchases.

[princeperch]

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/133405481#/...

Purchased for 550 a year ago by a couple of amateur live in property developers. A fairly nice refurb undertaken at that time for probably something in the region of 60k. Whack it back on a year later and pocket near enough 70/80k tax free. Not bad if you can do that once a year or so.

[Sheepshanks]

princeperch said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/133405481#/...

Purchased for 550 a year ago by a couple of amateur live in property developers. A fairly nice refurb undertaken at that time for probably something in the region of 60k. Whack it back on a year later and pocket near enough 70/80k tax free. Not bad if you can do that once a year or so.

Do you know them? It’s handy that their purchase price doesn’t seem to appear anywhere (the prices from mid-90’s are almost funny though!). Did they do the small rear extension?

Having just been through an extension/ refurb myself I think I’d want to be making 2x that to do it hoping to make money and I have a job which is very flexible with time.

[princeperch]

Sheepshanks said:

Do you know them? It’s handy that their purchase price doesn’t seem to appear anywhere (the prices from mid-90’s are almost funny though!). Did they do the small rear extension?

Having just been through an extension/ refurb myself I think I’d want to be making 2x that to do it hoping to make money and I have a job which is very flexible with time.

I used to live opposite this house and my old neighbours who I'm still in touch with, know them. I guess if you are a couple who have an ok ish job and can still fit in one tax free refurb where you make 60-100k a year that's still nice money.

[skwdenyer]

princeperch said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/133405481#/...

Purchased for 550 a year ago by a couple of amateur live in property developers. A fairly nice refurb undertaken at that time for probably something in the region of 60k. Whack it back on a year later and pocket near enough 70/80k tax free. Not bad if you can do that once a year or so.

£550k purchase, at least £20k in legals and SDLT. Offered at £700k (not sold - assume it makes asking). Estate agency fees etc £10k. So £60k profit. An 8.5% fall from asking wipes them out.

And this would be by far the most expensive (absolute, and £psf) ever in that street.

I’d say wait until it sells before assessing whether it was a worthwhile profit-maker.

And also bear in mind, in most parts of the country, they could have made £50k tax free just holding a £500k property for 12 months

[princeperch]

skwdenyer said:

£550k purchase, at least £20k in legals and SDLT. Offered at £700k (not sold - assume it makes asking). Estate agency fees etc £10k. So £60k profit. An 8.5% fall from asking wipes them out.

And this would be by far the most expensive (absolute, and £psf) ever in that street.

I’d say wait until it sells before assessing whether it was a worthwhile profit-maker.

And also bear in mind, in most parts of the country, they could have made £50k tax free just holding a £500k property for 12 months

It would be the most expensive PSF but not in absolute terms ( I sold mine for 701500 a year ago). It had a big old loft conversion on it tho which this one doesn't have).

I perhaps undersold mine by ten grand with the benefit of hindsight but I needed to get the deal done as where I was buying was running red hot and I couldn't mess about trying to squeeze a lot more out of the deal as it was all getting messy enough as it was.

The sad thing is I do think theyll sell that house for 700 or so to someone who would have previously purchased in hackney but has been displaced and now needs to move slightly further out. I.e richer people continue to move slightly further out.

And so the whole carousel of despair will continue to rotate.

[skwdenyer]

princeperch said:

skwdenyer said:

£550k purchase, at least £20k in legals and SDLT. Offered at £700k (not sold - assume it makes asking). Estate agency fees etc £10k. So £60k profit. An 8.5% fall from asking wipes them out.

And this would be by far the most expensive (absolute, and £psf) ever in that street.

I’d say wait until it sells before assessing whether it was a worthwhile profit-maker.

And also bear in mind, in most parts of the country, they could have made £50k tax free just holding a £500k property for 12 months

It would be the most expensive PSF but not in absolute terms ( I sold mine for 701500 a year ago). It had a big old loft conversion on it tho which this one doesn't have).

I perhaps undersold mine by ten grand with the benefit of hindsight but I needed to get the deal done as where I was buying was running red hot and I couldn't mess about trying to squeeze a lot more out of the deal as it was all getting messy enough as it was.

The sad thing is I do think theyll sell that house for 700 or so to someone who would have previously purchased in hackney but has been displaced and now needs to move slightly further out. I.e richer people continue to move slightly further out.

And so the whole carousel of despair will continue to rotate.

Ah, yours must be in a different postcode or just hasn't turned up on the LR then.

It will be interesting to see what it sells for. I suspect getting a mortgage valuation of £700k only 12 months after the last sale might be tricky right now, too.

[princeperch]

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/details/e...

This was the one I sold. If the new vendor gets 700k for the one that's just gone up for sale, the new purchaser will have "lost" a loft conversion in the space of a year.

[Macron]

Borrowing costs might be missing from that equation.

And who the fk is paying toppy asking prices within 30 miles of London right now..?

[skwdenyer]

princeperch said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/details/e...

This was the one I sold. If the new vendor gets 700k for the one that's just gone up for sale, the new purchaser will have "lost" a loft conversion in the space of a year.

Interesting. According to house metrics, yours is the same size as #81. Not sure of the data source but clearly not right - I’m guessing it is EPC data or similar.

[princeperch]

skwdenyer said:

Interesting. According to house metrics, yours is the same size as #81. Not sure of the data source but clearly not right - I’m guessing it is EPC data or similar.

I think when I sold mine in 2022 I used the EPC from 2014 as it was still "valid" even if inaccurate (the house was unextended in 2014).

[okgo]

Macron said:

Borrowing costs might be missing from that equation.

And who the fk is paying toppy asking prices within 30 miles of London right now..?

Stuff is moving. If it’s decent.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132922520 - this one took not long, they never stick around tbf.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/132764960 - this too.

Never any shortage of folk with money out there for the right things.

[Macron]

Neither really comparable to a 700k refurb.

[JagLover]

okgo said:

Stuff is moving. If it’s decent.

Yes

As mentioned before I am monitoring a specific 1/4 mile radius and something came up that I was interested in and then sold within two days. Stuff that is listed at prices that would have looked high at peak tends to just sit there.