How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

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mondeoman

11,430 posts

267 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
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Sheepshanks said:
Rovinghawk said:
Replace 'house' with 'car'; do you think those with a car they rarely use should be penalised or have it taken from them?

If it's unacceptable for one item of property then it's unacceptable for the other.
Cars aren't in limited supply.

I'm bemused anyone could think they're comparable situations.
Theft is theft. Its absolute offence, like speeding. If you don't own it, you cant have it. Doesn't matter whether its a single match or a superyacht.

hyphen

26,262 posts

91 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
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mondeoman said:
Theft is theft. Its absolute offence, like speeding. If you don't own it, you cant have it. Doesn't matter whether its a single match or a superyacht.
rofl Funny man.

How would it be theft exactly? The UK has a stable system, we don't do retrospective action unless it is unavoidable. So any laws would have a 99.9999999% probability of only applying going forward.

So if Corbyn got to power, and passed a law saying no property can be owned and left empty for a defined excessive period, then that is not 'theft', it would be a democratically passed law by an elected government and property owners would need to adjust to the new situation.

This isn't Russia, and that is why Russians flock here!

AstonZagato

12,734 posts

211 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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anonymous said:
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How do you think it would have improved society?

edh

3,498 posts

270 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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Derek Chevalier said:
"Over 75 per cent of rising house prices since the 1970s can be put down to rising land values"

Does he believe that land prices drive house prices?
Of course it does. Compare prices for similar houses in different parts of the country

Tuna

19,930 posts

285 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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edh said:
Of course it does. Compare prices for similar houses in different parts of the country
Are we going to have to start with the basics? Correlation does not equal causation. Perhaps high house prices drive high land prices?

edh

3,498 posts

270 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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Tuna said:
Are we going to have to start with the basics? Correlation does not equal causation. Perhaps high house prices drive high land prices?
biglaugh

AstonZagato

12,734 posts

211 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
I can't take anything seriously that is written by Common Weal. A bunch of Marxist Scottish independence nutters who are fruitloops of the first order. Any other thoughts of your own?

edh

3,498 posts

270 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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Watch this 15 minute talk for an intro to land / housing

https://youtu.be/YI4trJE8atI


Murph7355

37,818 posts

257 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
Doesn't this assume that people's politics don't change as they age? I'm pretty certain they do in the main.

anonymous said:
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I don't think it would have made any difference. Demand and supply being what it is, some areas will always have this "inequality".

Spreading the load away from the South East would have by far the biggest impact on prices IMO.


Rovinghawk

13,300 posts

159 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
I have the tax bills to prove it. smile

anonymous said:
[redacted]
It's a badly thought out envy tax which in the case of BTL will result in increased rents to tenants.

anonymous said:
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Leaving aside that I don't remember ever condemning anyone to anything, surely the younger generation could also work hard to get somewhere, rather than simply having it taken from me to give to them. Or do you see a scheme like that as 'fair'?

You make it seem almost a personal attack due to my circumstances. Have you had a bad LL in the past?

anonymous said:
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Change is the only constant.

anonymous said:
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No- their greed has been appealed to with the promise of free stuff, paid for by the hard work of others.

anonymous said:
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How exactly do high prices favour me? Did you not know that LLs buy houses at exactly the same price as everyone else? Do you think I just got given the properties?

anonymous said:
[redacted]
Leaving aside the 'woulda, coulda, shoulda' comments, everyone has a different idea of what 'fair' means. The only common point is that 'fairer' puts the individual in a more advantageous position than they would otherwise be.

Rovinghawk

13,300 posts

159 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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Sheepshanks said:
Cars aren't in limited supply.
E-type Jaguars are. If one isn't being used then I think it should be given to someone like me who would use it. By your logic this is reasonable.

98elise

26,761 posts

162 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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anonymous said:
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Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

174 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
A (sane) developer will look at what he thinks he can get for the finished house (which will be broadly inline with exisiting house plus (potentially) a new build premium). Subtract funding, marketing and building costs (etc) and include a profit margin. He won't offer more than this value for the land - it doesn't make sense to do otherwise.
A seller can ask what they want for the land, but if it doesn't make economic sense to buy and build on it, the land will remain unsold.

Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

174 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
It's all down to cheap money and speculation (greater fool theory) - if there were a genuine shortage of housing, rents would have soared in line with house prices, rather than wages.

bazza white

3,568 posts

129 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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I've been after a house for around a year now, the local area £140-200k ish was flying. A few houses I viewed went within days or offers were we over asking but the last month or so seems to have slowed and some being reduced now. This is Cardiff anyone else noticing the same.




mike74

3,687 posts

133 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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I recently heard the figure that just over 50% of marketed properties subsequently get withdrawn from the market after failing to achieve a sale (i.e they're overpriced)... so straight away that's half the property market made up of kite flyers.

When you then consider that a substantial proportion of those remaining on the market will STILL be overpriced, but the vendors are just too stubborn and deluded to accept the fact and they're prepared to leave them sat languishing for years in many cases, it makes you realise just how few houses are sensibly and realistically priced and have genuine vendors who just want to achieve a reasonably quick sale.

Tuna

19,930 posts

285 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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If you want a more equitable market, you make moving house cheap, you make moving businesses cheap and you make travelling to work cheap. The reason house prices peak tends to be a concentration of work places and the cost of getting to them. If your workforce is more mobile, then it will naturally redistribute itself.

The number of people I've met around London who struggle with ridiculous commutes largely because they "can't move" is ridiculous.

And the point here is that you don't have to penalise people for accidentally owning land - by benefiting those who work and want to be mobile, they'll move away from the property owners that are genuinely gaming the market. We could be investing in transport, technology and facilities rather than just trying to make the property market as treacle-like as possible and the whole country benefits. Of course, that doesn't suit the political goals of those who suggest land tax, though the end result would be much the same.

Rovinghawk

13,300 posts

159 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
Exaggerating to make the point, if they can't afford £200k @ 3%, how will they afford £100k @ 6%?

Rovinghawk

13,300 posts

159 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
Do you really anticipate a 50% drop in house prices? I don't.

powerstroke

10,283 posts

161 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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mike74 said:
I recently heard the figure that just over 50% of marketed properties subsequently get withdrawn from the market after failing to achieve a sale (i.e they're overpriced)... so straight away that's half the property market made up of kite flyers.

When you then consider that a substantial proportion of those remaining on the market will STILL be overpriced, but the vendors are just too stubborn and deluded to accept the fact and they're prepared to leave them sat languishing for years in many cases, it makes you realise just how few houses are sensibly and realistically priced and have genuine vendors who just want to achieve a reasonably quick sale.
This ... here in cheshire every town is being carpeted with new houses , high end older is selling but bread and butter stuff, flats ,smaller estate houses don't seem to sell, seems the same PCP selling model as cars is at play help to buy low deposits and new not needing anything done is what people want , not sure how much they will be worth 15 years down the line when they need refurb and the estate is looking shabby ... but hey new house new car you've made it right !!!
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