How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]

[Cheburator mk2]

okgo said:

ooid said:

This one near me (sort of), just sold in less than a month recently. £1.5 million asking, and needs a bit of work.

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/64096133...

“A bit”

Understatement of the century there

Great location, decent size and the work needed is purely cosmetic... £1.5mm has been the going rate for a detached house of 200m2 + in Petts Wood for yonks. Why is that surprising?

[okgo]

Cheburator mk2 said:

Great location, decent size and the work needed is purely cosmetic... £1.5mm has been the going rate for a detached house of 200m2 + in Petts Wood for yonks. Why is that surprising?

It needs a lot of money spent on it because the configuration is antiquated for modern living. That house would easily eat 250k just in build costs before you started on decorating it and such, to be honest based on the quotes I've had for a side return on a Victorian house I could easily see someone spending 3-400k on that making it like some of the neighbours. And that's before you even worry about what needs doing upstairs.

Do those roads support £2m? No idea, astounds me that that part of the world is so expensive tbh, never understood it, free decent schools a lot of it I suspect.

[ooid]

No suprise here. I wanted to highlight decent locations going as usual without being stalled in the market. (Imho)

[Cheburator mk2]

okgo said:

It needs a lot of money spent on it because the configuration is antiquated for modern living. That house would easily eat 250k just in build costs before you started on decorating it and such, to be honest based on the quotes I've had for a side return on a Victorian house I could easily see someone spending 3-400k on that making it like some of the neighbours. And that's before you even worry about what needs doing upstairs.

Do those roads support £2m? No idea, astounds me that that part of the world is so expensive tbh, never understood it, free decent schools a lot of it I suspect.

Two of the best grammar schools in the whole of the UK, not just the South, are next door - St Olaves and Newstead Woods, the outstanding Crofton Primary too. Add easy access to Bromley High, Sevenoaks and a ton of great/good others in the private sector. Zero anti-social crime - South London Gangsters don't like stting on their doorstep. Did I mention that London Cannon Street is 27min on a decent train and it is still in Zone 5? Chislehurst and Petts Wood at £1.5mm for the size/outside space that you would be getting are a bit of a bargain in that context, non?

[okgo]

Cheburator mk2 said:

Two of the best grammar schools in the whole of the UK, not just the South, are next door - St Olaves and Newstead Woods, the outstanding Crofton Primary too. Add easy access to Bromley High, Sevenoaks and a ton of great/good others in the private sector. Zero anti-social crime - South London Gangsters don't like stting on their doorstep. Did I mention that London Cannon Street is 27min on a decent train and it is still in Zone 5? Chislehurst and Petts Wood at £1.5mm for the size/outside space that you would be getting are a bit of a bargain in that context, non?

You're missing my main point I feel, its in need of a lot of work. I can't see if anything else is for sale there really, but do the finished ones in the road go for over £2m? If so it makes sense, if not it looks expensive considering what needs doing to it.

[brickwall]

Mr Whippy said:

skwdenyer said:

Shnozz said:

skwdenyer said:

Or they just don't need to sell in any hurry. I looked at a house in the Dales last year in a similar situation - had sat on the market for a year or so even then at a price too high even for the hot market last summer. Vendor had already moved to Spain for retirement, had no specific need for the money, and simply refused to entertain offers. Agents were actively putting potential buyers off (or at least being very clear up-front that offers wouldn't be entertained); in the end it swapped agents, and has dropped off the market (but I know not if it sold, or has simply been withdrawn for now)

If they’ve moved to Spain properly and taken residency, they’ll be in for a big shock with CGT if they sell their U.K. property within the next Spanish tax year. Would have thought that would have been a serious incentive to get it gone in swift time.

Interesting. But given they’d priced the property about 20% above market, maybe they were just pricing-in their CGT bill

I was mentioning such stuff to my wife earlier.
No one should be rich enough to throw money away. Which is exactly why BofE is tightening, some people clearly have too much money.

The opportunity cost of £1mill sat burning council tax, maintenance, etc, is viable in a hot market.

But in today’s market? £40,000 a year in interest just sat in the bank. Never mind £££ saved in council tax, possible CGT exposure building up etc.

You’d be looking for a 6% house price rise next year just to stand still. Hard to see that happening?

That was my thought when I mentioned the house earlier where vendors are still holding out for close to £1.4M asking after 6 months, despite having had offers at c£1.2M around Xmas.

It’s lying empty, costing them £1k a week. Madness.

[okgo]

However, to go with the trend we're talking, I do agree that quality and rarity to an extent is getting good stuff through quick (the one in P Wood may well be quite rare too based on nothing being for sale there for anything around that level).

This took only a few days, nicely done (what the P Wood one needs to end up looking like) - https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/133121114#/...

[skwdenyer]

brickwall said:

I was looking at a few:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-25...
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500margin.pdf

I don’t disagree with you on debt servicing costs, especially in a PE environment.
However I’m not so bearish on the consequences of that - if the firms have underlying good prospects and solid EBITDA then the funds will likely pump a bit more equity in to deleverage the balance sheet rather than let it go bust. Diluting returns a little will in most cases be preferable to wiping out the equity. I think that’s especially true when the funds are sitting on masses of dry powder (as they are right now).

I didn’t notice earlier, sorry, but why are you choosing US data? We’re talking about UK house prices & the UK economy.

This is a common problem - people seem to believe the US & UK economies are comparable in nature. They’re really not. But that illusion prevents us from seeing where we truly are.

[Sheepshanks]

okgo said:

You're missing my main point I feel, its in need of a lot of work. I can't see if anything else is for sale there really, but do the finished ones in the road go for over £2m? If so it makes sense, if not it looks expensive considering what needs doing to it.

There's a bit of stuff around it, but not much - https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find... - It does look like the sellers have done pretty well.

[ooid]

This also gone a few months ago, again quite quickly...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/131333828?u...

[s1962a]

okgo said:

However, to go with the trend we're talking, I do agree that quality and rarity to an extent is getting good stuff through quick (the one in P Wood may well be quite rare too based on nothing being for sale there for anything around that level).

This took only a few days, nicely done (what the P Wood one needs to end up looking like) - https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/133121114#/...

Just noticed.. how is that property in council tax band G? I would have thought it would be in the highest band given the size of it. The next buyer might be in for a shock if it gets revalued.

[Leicester Loyal]

s1962a said:

Just noticed.. how is that property in council tax band G? I would have thought it would be in the highest band given the size of it. The next buyer might be in for a shock if it gets revalued.

Won't it just get revalued to H? Which will be about a grand more a year?

[okgo]

Sure they’re not gunna be too fussed https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2983617/a...

Also it’s based on value at some random date in the past vs size isn’t it?

[brickwall]

Can’t say I’m aware of a single rebanding as a result of extensions/refurbs. As okgo says the increase is generally sufficiently small it’s barely worth the council’s time.

[skwdenyer]

brickwall said:

Can’t say I’m aware of a single rebanding as a result of extensions/refurbs. As okgo says the increase is generally sufficiently small it’s barely worth the council’s time.

Indeed. About time we re-introduced rates.

[brickwall]

skwdenyer said:

brickwall said:

Can’t say I’m aware of a single rebanding as a result of extensions/refurbs. As okgo says the increase is generally sufficiently small it’s barely worth the council’s time.

Indeed. About time we re-introduced rates.

I have long argued that the current council tax system is completely bizarre - a Mayfair mansion worth £50M pays less council tax than a 2-bed flat in Nottingham worth <£200k.

I wouldn’t put it past Labour to change the system in such a way to give most households a cut, but end the postcode lottery and uncap it at the top end.

[JagLover]

brickwall said:

I have long argued that the current council tax system is completely bizarre - a Mayfair mansion worth £50M pays less council tax than a 2-bed flat in Nottingham worth <£200k.

I wouldn’t put it past Labour to change the system in such a way to give most households a cut, but end the postcode lottery and uncap it at the top end.

The current council tax system is to partly ensure local funding for local services, with central government funding on top via central grants. The problem with making local taxation national, as seen with business rates, is that then councils have little incentive to ensure a healthy local economy.

It also isn't particularly bizarre for levels of local taxation to vary by council as local needs and competence of councils will vary.

[Froomee]

ooid said:

No suprise here. I wanted to highlight decent locations going as usual without being stalled in the market. (Imho)

We purchased a period semi in Petts Wood east last year…. A modernised semi was recently listed at £1.25m and sold within a few days.

Anything in the area between Petts Wood road, Chislehurst road and the woods has been selling and usually commands a premium Vs other parts of the area.

[kiethton]

Froomee said:

ooid said:

No suprise here. I wanted to highlight decent locations going as usual without being stalled in the market. (Imho)

We purchased a period semi in Petts Wood east last year…. A modernised semi was recently listed at £1.25m and sold within a few days.

Anything in the area between Petts Wood road, Chislehurst road and the woods has been selling and usually commands a premium Vs other parts of the area.

100% this, we were looking in that exact triangle when we bought 18m ago and realised we just couldn't get what we wanted at the right £. Ended up going west to Sanderstead (for another great train line) and getting a house 50% bigger and detached for £200k less

[Froomee]

kiethton said:

Froomee said:

ooid said:

No suprise here. I wanted to highlight decent locations going as usual without being stalled in the market. (Imho)

We purchased a period semi in Petts Wood east last year…. A modernised semi was recently listed at £1.25m and sold within a few days.

Anything in the area between Petts Wood road, Chislehurst road and the woods has been selling and usually commands a premium Vs other parts of the area.

100% this, we were looking in that exact triangle when we bought 18m ago and realised we just couldn't get what we wanted at the right £. Ended up going west to Sanderstead (for another great train line) and getting a house 50% bigger and detached for £200k less

We shortlisted this area (which we purchased in), Bickley park estate and the area west of Chislehurst high street. Petts wood was ultimately our number 1 option due to proximity to the station (plus it goes to a number of main London stations rather than just 1- 2), part of the area is now a conservation area meaning it should stay very similar over time (and it has done over the years) and finally there isn’t any space to build any more houses so what is there is all that will ever be there. All of the other points mentioned by others are pertinent.

Pretty much anything that directly backs onto the woodlands in the areas listed above commands a premium as the roads are fairly private, nicely spaced out and fairly limited in terms of supply.