Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread

[spikeyhead]

Here's a graph of a few countries, info from here

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations


.

Israel seems to have stuck at 63% for first jabs after a strong start.

The rest of Europe is now making decent progress.

[vaud]

spikeyhead said:

Israel seems to have stuck at 63% for first jabs after a strong start.

The rest of Europe is now making decent progress.

It's people, not adults on the graphs so includes <18s?

[JeffreyD]

spikeyhead said:

Israel seems to have stuck at 63% for first jabs after a strong start.

The rest of Europe is now making decent progress.

Am I right in thinking that most of Europe are also giving the second jabs out on the shorter timescales so things will equalise out in relatively short order ?

[spikeyhead]

vaud said:

spikeyhead said:

Israel seems to have stuck at 63% for first jabs after a strong start.

The rest of Europe is now making decent progress.

It's people, not adults on the graphs so includes <18s?

Ah, that makes a bit more sense.

[havoc]

spikeyhead said:

Here's a graph of a few countries, info from here

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations


.

Israel seems to have stuck at 63% for first jabs after a strong start.

The rest of Europe is now making decent progress.

You can see the kink in our curve (~mid-late March) where 2nd vaccines started to be given.

[Otispunkmeyer]

CarlosFandango11 said:

simoid said:

RSTurboPaul said:

Nice casual grouping of a wide range of different personal opinions and concerns into one homogenous group that you can castigate and slur. Well done.


re: the modelling being gonads, it was shown to be gonads barely hours after the October(?) Press Conference slides showed '4000 deaths per day!!!' to justify November lockdown - a figure that still hasn't been exceeded by India (despite 'variants'), a country that Lord Sumption noted as having a failed lockdown and a population twenty times the size of ours.

Was 4,000 deaths a day not a worst case scenario if nothing was done when cases were doubling weekly or so? The modelling is the modelling, I reckon it’s fairer to say that use of the worst case scenario time and time again has turned out to be “crying wolf” in some ways.

Yes, but I don’t think facts are what he’s interested in.

Whilst recorded daily deaths in India are below 4K, actual daily deaths in India are well above 4K.
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1188

The problem with that pronouncement was it was demonstrably wrong as they were presenting it. Their model showed a serious number of daily deaths should be happening, on the day they gave the presser, and you could literally check the real data on the spot and see it being about a tenth of their prediction.

[FiF]

Otispunkmeyer said:

CarlosFandango11 said:

simoid said:

RSTurboPaul said:

Nice casual grouping of a wide range of different personal opinions and concerns into one homogenous group that you can castigate and slur. Well done.


re: the modelling being gonads, it was shown to be gonads barely hours after the October(?) Press Conference slides showed '4000 deaths per day!!!' to justify November lockdown - a figure that still hasn't been exceeded by India (despite 'variants'), a country that Lord Sumption noted as having a failed lockdown and a population twenty times the size of ours.

Was 4,000 deaths a day not a worst case scenario if nothing was done when cases were doubling weekly or so? The modelling is the modelling, I reckon it’s fairer to say that use of the worst case scenario time and time again has turned out to be “crying wolf” in some ways.

Yes, but I don’t think facts are what he’s interested in.

Whilst recorded daily deaths in India are below 4K, actual daily deaths in India are well above 4K.
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1188

The problem with that pronouncement was it was demonstrably wrong as they were presenting it. Their model showed a serious number of daily deaths should be happening, on the day they gave the presser, and you could literally check the real data on the spot and see it being about a tenth of their prediction.

The real situation is far from clear regardless of the nation being discussed, even UK. For example only the other day there was a notice about a significant % of recent UK deaths recorded amongst the Covid numbers where the death was actually other causes, and then we just need to look at Peru where recorded deaths has been revised and more than doubled to make it, on face value, highest recorded per capita death rate in the world.

It's easy to say the facts will come out in the fullness of time for reasonable comparisons to be made, yet in my view in many places it's already gone too far for that to be ever possible considering the differences in recording the figures and changes to methodology, even in a single nation.

Then you have perception and reality. A recent poll much repeated on Twitter suggested that the British public thought that 7% of the population had died from Covid, 10% in Scotland. True figure 0.1% as investigated by FullFact.

Yet as discussed here still not got the full picture, and that's for UK with a relatively organised comprehensive recording system. Some other parts of the world, not so much.

[vaud]

FiF said:

Then you have perception and reality. A recent poll much repeated on Twitter suggested that the British public thought that 7% of the population had died from Covid, 10% in Scotland. True figure 0.1% as investigated by FullFact.

People are idiots.

[FiF]

vaud said:

FiF said:

Then you have perception and reality. A recent poll much repeated on Twitter suggested that the British public thought that 7% of the population had died from Covid, 10% in Scotland. True figure 0.1% as investigated by FullFact.

People are idiots.

True, and Twitter concentrates the idiocy.

[rover 623gsi]

This a cool site - includes an element of estimated figures but still gives a good, simple overview of vaccination progress across the world

https://covidvax.live/

[paulrockliffe]

JeffreyD said:

spikeyhead said:

Israel seems to have stuck at 63% for first jabs after a strong start.

The rest of Europe is now making decent progress.

Am I right in thinking that most of Europe are also giving the second jabs out on the shorter timescales so things will equalise out in relatively short order ?

That's what I thought, but it doesn't fit with the short gap based on ages of people able to book their vaccination and the total number of vaccinations administered per adult capita.

The only way I could make the two marry up was either hugely different demographics or loads of older people being missed out in Europe.

To further add to that, that covidvax live site just linked to says the UK will achieve 70% with 2 doses in 56 days, Sweden it's 259 days, Czech Republic in 109 days.

I just can't see how that equates to only a few weeks gap between first vaccinations unless take-up is relatively low coming down the age ranges.

There's no

[spikeyhead]

spikeyhead said:

vaud said:

spikeyhead said:

Israel seems to have stuck at 63% for first jabs after a strong start.

The rest of Europe is now making decent progress.

It's people, not adults on the graphs so includes <18s?

Ah, that makes a bit more sense.

Wikipedia states that 28% of Israelis are aged 14 or under, so add another 6% for the under 18s leaves 66% as adults. Therefore 63% / 66% is about 95% of adults

[ruggedscotty]

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavir...

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tra...

found these.... wonder if they are useful

[simoid]

ruggedscotty said:

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavir...

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tra...

found these.... wonder if they are useful

Love them - lots of different ways of displaying the info.

A question - Scotland’s health Secretary said today that 10 kids under the age of 10 were hospitalised in the last week because of covid. Is he talking ste? Seems there were around that number admitted to hospital last week but it would be peculiar if, for example, none of them were in for a different ailment and happened to test positive, as the vast vast majority of kids are asymptotic.

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/scottish-new...

[Vanden Saab]

If the present rate of deaths continues we will be below the 5 year average of deaths for 2021 in 10 weeks time...

[CarCrazyDad]

rover 623gsi said:

This a cool site - includes an element of estimated figures but still gives a good, simple overview of vaccination progress across the world

https://covidvax.live/

Very interesting

https://covidvax.live/location/gbr

So it appears we have 60% of the population vaccinated. (40m)

Plus we have 4.5 million "confirmed cases".


So 45 million people have either got natural immunity or the vaccination.


What point does "herd immunity" take into account?

I assume a percentage of people also do not get impacted by the virus so there's probably another 5 million who don't become infected anyway? So 50million people are safe.

[Zad]

havoc said:

spikeyhead said:

Here's a graph of a few countries, info from here

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations


.

Israel seems to have stuck at 63% for first jabs after a strong start.

The rest of Europe is now making decent progress.

You can see the kink in our curve (~mid-late March) where 2nd vaccines started to be given.

Specifically:


Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinatio...

The "kink" point is more or less where they ran out of over-50s, and it became more effective to concentrate on the +3 month second dose for older people. Knowing what we now do about the India variant and how a single dose isn't as effective compared to the other variants, this wasn't a bad call. Obviously, it does mean that more of the people of pub-going age were still unvaccinated, and so stretched the tail of the infection graph. In the graph of EU states, they are only just approaching the % point where we started preferring 2nd vaccinations.

[spikeyhead]

CarCrazyDad said:

Very interesting

https://covidvax.live/location/gbr

So it appears we have 60% of the population vaccinated. (40m)

Plus we have 4.5 million "confirmed cases".


So 45 million people have either got natural immunity or the vaccination.


What point does "herd immunity" take into account?

I assume a percentage of people also do not get impacted by the virus so there's probably another 5 million who don't become infected anyway? So 50million people are safe.

The answer is "it depends."

If very few of us spend time with others then the answer is "not many."

If we all spend three two hour sessions in a small room with 50 other people each day, all singing loudly, and they're different people for each singing session, then the answer becomes "almost everyone."

In practice our behaviours are somewhere between the two extremes given above. I've repeatedly said that there is no bigger folly than trying to model human behaviour.

What's also true is that if you vaccinate 85% of the population then you've almost certainly done enough, but if you don't jab any of those that go clubbing and to gigs, and if they all live with their grandparents, who have been jabbed, but the jabs don't have perfect efficacy, then there's a chance of cases rising amongst the young and causing problems for the old, and whilst it generally won't kill the youngsters, a few will end up with significant suffering with it.

I suspect that's not the answer you were looking for, but it's as precise as anything that can reasonably be given. We're in a decent place and so long as take up is reasonable amongst the last group to be jabbed then that should be the end of it.

[the-photographer]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

x2.5 more?

Edited by the-photographer on Friday 4th June 07:48

Edited by the-photographer on Friday 4th June 07:51

[vaud]

spikeyhead said:

I suspect that's not the answer you were looking for, but it's as precise as anything that can reasonably be given. We're in a decent place and so long as take up is reasonable amongst the last group to be jabbed then that should be the end of it.

End of what? End of the pandemic?