How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
CoolHands said:
What do with think about the latest DM scaremongering? -40% ahead
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4657812/Br...
Major falls are already underway in London. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4657812/Br...
Nine Elms, as the most extreme example, has dropped from £1,800 per square foot to £1,200 already, and will end up, in my opinion, at a stabilised level of £750.
The ripples are now working their way out and volumes have dropped and quoting prices are falling as people see what is happening.
Outside London and the South East, where prices are more of a cost+ level, the market is much less likely to have problems.
The FT is saying pretty much the same thing:
https://www.ft.com/content/922574d8-5cc4-11e7-b553...
"Think hard before buying a London property"
I'd extend this to 80% of urban UK.
https://www.ft.com/content/922574d8-5cc4-11e7-b553...
"Think hard before buying a London property"
I'd extend this to 80% of urban UK.
Yeah but most of us know that Nine Elms etc and all that new-build s
t is overpriced, so that when people who are entitled to shared-ownership buy the place, they're in reality paying the actual value of the place not 50%. i.e. we value this new-build studio flat at 600k! You buy 50% at 300k. Which in reality was all it was worth in the first place.
Those being 'devalued' I don't regard as a real drop. The established properties that drop in price (when it happens) is (will be) real.
t is overpriced, so that when people who are entitled to shared-ownership buy the place, they're in reality paying the actual value of the place not 50%. i.e. we value this new-build studio flat at 600k! You buy 50% at 300k. Which in reality was all it was worth in the first place.Those being 'devalued' I don't regard as a real drop. The established properties that drop in price (when it happens) is (will be) real.
menousername said:
A trade they need 50k + of uni debt to achieve?
Did you buy a house while servicing that level of uni debt?
I didn't go to university; I fix trucks. Did you buy a house while servicing that level of uni debt?
I own two houses.
Hope that clears things up for you.
kingston12 said:
I never quite understand that argument. If hundreds of people currently in minimum wage jobs in one are of the north all trained in your trade, would you still be able to earn your £40k? It might be the case, but it certainly isn't for most trades.
There isn't enough capacity in the economy to support house prices at this level. Interest rates and other props have bridged the gap up until now, but if any of those are taken away then the situation could be rather different.
There is more than just one trade. My point is, you don't need to be an astronaut to not be in a minimum wage job.There isn't enough capacity in the economy to support house prices at this level. Interest rates and other props have bridged the gap up until now, but if any of those are taken away then the situation could be rather different.
Edited by kingston12 on Sunday 2nd July 08:22
Edited by TheLordJohn on Sunday 2nd July 13:24
TheLordJohn said:
I didn't go to university; I fix trucks.
I own two houses.
Hope that clears things up for you.
Im happy for you but i am guessing there is not much scope for training as a truck mechanic these days. I own two houses.
Hope that clears things up for you.
If there were then like someone else said you would see increased competition for work and a downward pressure on your earning potential.
If you arent already then you could make apprenticeships available too- pass your skills on to the next generation so they have half a chance
stuckmojo said:
The FT is saying pretty much the same thing:
https://www.ft.com/content/922574d8-5cc4-11e7-b553...
"Think hard before buying a London property"
I'd extend this to 80% of urban UK.
Just read that, added no new information to what hasn't been said before. Probably had some space to fill in the paper.https://www.ft.com/content/922574d8-5cc4-11e7-b553...
"Think hard before buying a London property"
I'd extend this to 80% of urban UK.
Daily Mail though delivers: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4657812/Br...
hyphen said:
Just read that, added no new information to what hasn't been said before. Probably had some space to fill in the paper.
Daily Mail though delivers: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4657812/Br...
Saw that, surprising narrative from the wail, they're the ones obsessed with house price values .Daily Mail though delivers: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4657812/Br...
loafer123 said:
Major falls are already underway in London.
Nine Elms, as the most extreme example, has dropped from £1,800 per square foot to £1,200 already, and will end up, in my opinion, at a stabilised level of £750.
The ripples are now working their way out and volumes have dropped and quoting prices are falling as people see what is happening.
Outside London and the South East, where prices are more of a cost+ level, the market is much less likely to have problems.
Because Nine Elms / Vauxhall is rubbish, they've demolished *everything*, so what little character was there is now totally obliterated, and in its place just put up endless shiny boxes that after a few years of service charges being embezzled by useless management companies, will not look so shiny any more, and are all way too close to each other, you'll probably never see the sun or a phone signal there. If anyone does open any restaurants there, they will be a succession of Pizza Express and Giraffe and the like that you find on every high street. There are an infinite supply of better places to live instead, without the shiny shoebox price tags.Nine Elms, as the most extreme example, has dropped from £1,800 per square foot to £1,200 already, and will end up, in my opinion, at a stabilised level of £750.
The ripples are now working their way out and volumes have dropped and quoting prices are falling as people see what is happening.
Outside London and the South East, where prices are more of a cost+ level, the market is much less likely to have problems.
menousername said:
TheLordJohn said:
I didn't go to university; I fix trucks.
I own two houses.
Hope that clears things up for you.
Im happy for you but i am guessing there is not much scope for training as a truck mechanic these days. I own two houses.
Hope that clears things up for you.
If there were then like someone else said you would see increased competition for work and a downward pressure on your earning potential.
If you arent already then you could make apprenticeships available too- pass your skills on to the next generation so they have half a chance
the Idea if they don't go to a forma polytechnic and get some daft degree their lives are worthless , hence their is a sign up at the gate of just about every truck dealership Wanted HGV mechanics ... same with most skilled trades =short supply ...
powerstroke said:
I think the problem is the kids don't want to get their hands dirty , work their way up and have been brainwashed into
the Idea if they don't go to a forma polytechnic and get some daft degree their lives are worthless , hence their is a sign up at the gate of just about every truck dealership Wanted HGV mechanics ... same with most skilled trades =short supply ...
Wanted- HGV mechanics?the Idea if they don't go to a forma polytechnic and get some daft degree their lives are worthless , hence their is a sign up at the gate of just about every truck dealership Wanted HGV mechanics ... same with most skilled trades =short supply ...
Or
Wanted - HGV mechanic apprentices?
menousername said:
powerstroke said:
I think the problem is the kids don't want to get their hands dirty , work their way up and have been brainwashed into
the Idea if they don't go to a forma polytechnic and get some daft degree their lives are worthless , hence their is a sign up at the gate of just about every truck dealership Wanted HGV mechanics ... same with most skilled trades =short supply ...
Wanted- HGV mechanics?the Idea if they don't go to a forma polytechnic and get some daft degree their lives are worthless , hence their is a sign up at the gate of just about every truck dealership Wanted HGV mechanics ... same with most skilled trades =short supply ...
Or
Wanted - HGV mechanic apprentices?
good career choice for a practicly minded kid But there is some serious snobishness about practical trades
in this country, always was ... wonders if we will need more trades or ollgys post Brexit???
Edited by powerstroke on Sunday 2nd July 18:00
TheLordJohn said:
There is more than just one trade. My point is, you don't need to be an astronaut to not be in a minimum wage job.
That was kind of the point. If 100,00 people currently on the minimum wage train as plumbers, another 100,000 as electricians and another 100,000 as truck-fixers doesn't this have a negative financial effect on the people already in those trades, or are we just assuming there is suddenly more work in all of these fields?Edited by TheLordJohn on Sunday 2nd July 13:24
Halifax numbers out today, -1% compared to last month. Apparently the last time it dropped month after month like this was in 2012.
Although there was a +1% from Nationwide in the last few weeks.
Certainly seeing lots of falls/reductions across North London, central London (down to 2014 sale values and still not selling) and Surrey (although not hit Woking yet).
Although there was a +1% from Nationwide in the last few weeks.
Certainly seeing lots of falls/reductions across North London, central London (down to 2014 sale values and still not selling) and Surrey (although not hit Woking yet).
People we know in London, with similar income to us, bought a 2-bed pokey-ish flat in south London for £250k in 2011, sold it for £450k this year. Probably moved to somewhere bigger still in south London, no idea what it would have cost them though.
We bought decent sized 3 bed semi up north for £150k in 2013, now probably worth £170k. No plans to move, maybe to a better area in ten years time.
Are they the mugs or are we the mugs? Or are we all mugs?
Or none of us?
We bought decent sized 3 bed semi up north for £150k in 2013, now probably worth £170k. No plans to move, maybe to a better area in ten years time.
Are they the mugs or are we the mugs? Or are we all mugs?
Or none of us?
Twilkes said:
People we know in London, with similar income to us, bought a 2-bed pokey-ish flat in south London for £250k in 2011, sold it for £450k this year. Probably moved to somewhere bigger still in south London, no idea what it would have cost them though.
We bought decent sized 3 bed semi up north for £150k in 2013, now probably worth £170k. No plans to move, maybe to a better area in ten years time.
Are they the mugs or are we the mugs? Or are we all mugs?
Or none of us?
The house they moved to will probably also have gone up in a similar value, so they didn't get a bigger house with this free money, they just used it to pay for a more expensive house.We bought decent sized 3 bed semi up north for £150k in 2013, now probably worth £170k. No plans to move, maybe to a better area in ten years time.
Are they the mugs or are we the mugs? Or are we all mugs?
Or none of us?
Only a financial benefit if these people want to leave London one day to live somehow cheaper.
Twilkes said:
People we know in London, with similar income to us, bought a 2-bed pokey-ish flat in south London for £250k in 2011, sold it for £450k this year. Probably moved to somewhere bigger still in south London, no idea what it would have cost them though.
We bought decent sized 3 bed semi up north for £150k in 2013, now probably worth £170k. No plans to move, maybe to a better area in ten years time.
Are they the mugs or are we the mugs? Or are we all mugs?
Or none of us?
It's certainly hard not to be frustrated that houses like mine in the NW haven't changed value in 10+yrs now. Oddly some types of property have increased so it's not as though it's consistent in the area.We bought decent sized 3 bed semi up north for £150k in 2013, now probably worth £170k. No plans to move, maybe to a better area in ten years time.
Are they the mugs or are we the mugs? Or are we all mugs?
Or none of us?
I'm also somewhat jealous of Southern based colleagues in houses that are nudging a million now. Having that value of property gives them a lot of options as they get older. It's also worth them spending money on their houses when it often doesn't make sense in the North as you can't change the value much. Of course their kids are stuffed whereas mine were able to buy locally to us.
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