How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
Twilkes said:
People we know in London, with similar income to us, bought a 2-bed pokey-ish flat in south London for £250k in 2011, sold it for £450k this year. Probably moved to somewhere bigger still in south London, no idea what it would have cost them though.
We bought decent sized 3 bed semi up north for £150k in 2013, now probably worth £170k. No plans to move, maybe to a better area in ten years time.
Are they the mugs or are we the mugs? Or are we all mugs?
Or none of us?
tough one. houses in london are an easy investment - IF you assume that the london bubble will continue forever and IF you can manage it AND IF one day you want to cash that in. Up north you get cheaper housing so you get more opportunity to diversify your residual income into other assets. I know of some investments that are currently returning 9% so not too dis-similar from London property - but I don't have the money to invest in those because all my spare goes towards paying off the mortgage (I'm not actually too stretched but I hate a concentrated portfolio and I hate risk of being unemployed etc.)We bought decent sized 3 bed semi up north for £150k in 2013, now probably worth £170k. No plans to move, maybe to a better area in ten years time.
Are they the mugs or are we the mugs? Or are we all mugs?
Or none of us?
In london you're almost 'forced' to invest most of your residual into a house - that just happens to be working out at the moment but who knows... Tons of people have busted a gut to get on the london ladder and if Brexit / *interest rates* / Corbyn taxes hit then those people could be looking at severe negative equity; OR can't afford repayments on your 110% mortgage any more so you have to sell and end up much further out (because you have little equity resulting from most of your monthly mortgage being interest); OR less extreme might end up flat having invested all their residual into it whereas a broader invested portfolio might be more resilient to the future unknown.
Edited by Angrybiker on Friday 7th July 12:17
hyphen said:
The house they moved to will probably also have gone up in a similar value, so they didn't get a bigger house with this free money, they just used it to pay for a more expensive house.
Only a financial benefit if these people want to leave London one day to live somehow cheaper.
Big lump of equity does wonders for affordability.Only a financial benefit if these people want to leave London one day to live somehow cheaper.
Derek Chevalier said:
I would suggest that's because the majority of Woking and surrounding areas are below the £1.5m point, beyond which it starts to get very sticky.
I can see why you would say that but based on everything I have seen from London to Surrey, would suggest this is not the case. From what I can see, anything over £440-450k is struggling in the areas I have been tracking (which is surprising given where they are!)Zone 1 properties that sold for £900k in 2014, are now £625k and not shifting. Areas between west London and Woking are not shifting and have been stood on the market for weeks/months with regular reductions. The parts of Surrey I have been tracking are all very slow/again with numerous reductions, however the part of Woking I am interested in does seem boyant and when a nice property comes on...it will shift after 3-4 weeks.
Many properties are being pulled off the market due to no sale, in fact I think there was something recently that showed 2/3 of property was removed without a sale.
Our SW London / North Surrey offices still seem pretty busy. We're pretty mid market so tail off over, say £1-1.5m and rarely go over £2m. It seems like at that value and above there's not much doing. I can understand why.
Incidentally, what sort of stock is there in Zone 1 for £600-900k? They must be fairly niche.
Incidentally, what sort of stock is there in Zone 1 for £600-900k? They must be fairly niche.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I did already for zone 1 (Fitzrovia), look a page or two back. There was one that actually sold for £900k+ in 2014 and is now in the £600's, another in Maida Vale (mansion house style that is very desired in that part) that is still on at £600k, those were shifting for £750k in 2015.This is a good example of a Surrey property, http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
Again didnt sell, but went through a number of reductions, originally on at £600-640k.
In fact the only resilient area I found anywhere near there was Woking (presumably because of the fast link into London), everywhere else inc Godalming seemed to be surprisingly slow.
V6Alfisti said:
I did already for zone 1 (Fitzrovia), look a page or two back. There was one that actually sold for £900k+ in 2014 and is now in the £600's, another in Maida Vale (mansion house style that is very desired in that part) that is still on at £600k, those were shifting for £750k in 2015.
This is a good example of a Surrey property, http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
Again didnt sell, but went through a number of reductions, originally on at £600-640k.
In fact the only resilient area I found anywhere near there was Woking (presumably because of the fast link into London), everywhere else inc Godalming seemed to be surprisingly slow.
Do you know that specific house (the Chris Mayhew's one)? I do. I know the vendor, too. I wouldn't buy it.This is a good example of a Surrey property, http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
Again didnt sell, but went through a number of reductions, originally on at £600-640k.
In fact the only resilient area I found anywhere near there was Woking (presumably because of the fast link into London), everywhere else inc Godalming seemed to be surprisingly slow.
scenario8 said:
Do you know that specific house (the Chris Mayhew's one)? I do. I know the vendor, too. I wouldn't buy it.
Not 'personally', but I know where it is. i.e the tree covering to the left and its on that large straight road going to the station.One of many examples, properties in that area struggles past £500k from what I have seen. They often go through 2-3 reduction cycles and then get pulled, but of course the odd one sells.
V6Alfisti said:
Derek Chevalier said:
I would suggest that's because the majority of Woking and surrounding areas are below the £1.5m point, beyond which it starts to get very sticky.
I can see why you would say that but based on everything I have seen from London to Surrey, would suggest this is not the case. From what I can see, anything over £440-450k is struggling in the areas I have been tracking (which is surprising given where they are!)Zone 1 properties that sold for £900k in 2014, are now £625k and not shifting. Areas between west London and Woking are not shifting and have been stood on the market for weeks/months with regular reductions. The parts of Surrey I have been tracking are all very slow/again with numerous reductions, however the part of Woking I am interested in does seem boyant and when a nice property comes on...it will shift after 3-4 weeks.
Many properties are being pulled off the market due to no sale, in fact I think there was something recently that showed 2/3 of property was removed without a sale.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Just one example, no offence but I am not going to trawl through pages of houses to prove a point on a forum, just knowledge I have picked up as I pick up rightmove updates/check the market.Look at Reigate (that took a particular hit), Redhill, Godalming ...all similarly impacted and the prices are only about £50-100k more for similar sized property.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Friday 7th July 15:24
V6Alfisti said:
Not 'personally', but I know where it is. i.e the tree covering to the left and its on that large straight road going to the station.
One of many examples, properties in that area struggles past £500k from what I have seen. They often go through 2-3 reduction cycles and then get pulled, but of course the odd one sells.
You're correct that front and back that house suffers from its position between two major roads. It is also spitting distance to the large "roundabout" petrol station. You can easily criticise the house itself, too. It is a bit of a left field choice so doesn't surprise me it hasn't flown out the door. I have to keep a secret about this particular property but (read between the lines) it isn't a very good example of a property that hasn't sold One of many examples, properties in that area struggles past £500k from what I have seen. They often go through 2-3 reduction cycles and then get pulled, but of course the odd one sells.
Besides, Horley ain't Reigate. Both offices in rude health, by the way.
scenario8 said:
You're correct that front and back that house suffers from its position between two major roads. It is also spitting distance to the large "roundabout" petrol station. You can easily criticise the house itself, too. It is a bit of a left field choice so doesn't surprise me it hasn't flown out the door. I have to keep a secret about this particular property but (read between the lines) it isn't a very good example of a property that hasn't sold
Besides, Horley ain't Reigate. Both offices in rude health, by the way.
Ah you are an estate agent in the area, makes sense now. As said, it is one of many but not going to trawl for more examples.Besides, Horley ain't Reigate. Both offices in rude health, by the way.
Anyone with a browser and property bee can do the research and see with their own eyes.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Friday 7th July 15:38
I sense there has been some softening but as you may appreciate if you list something competitively and it sells "too quickly" you undervalued it (in the eyes of the masses) but if, for whatever reason, you find yourself with a property at a certain price that the market seems to think should be at X minus 5 or 10% you play the silly game of trying to convince the vendor we should attempt price reductions and then that is called out by market watchers too.
The client, of course, not necessarily interested in professional advice nor in showing any loyalty!
It can be a bit of a game at times.
Honestly, though, plenty selling across the areas you mention under £1-1.5m. Perhaps a little lower than they might have. As ever, it seems, winning the motivated stock is troublesome.
The client, of course, not necessarily interested in professional advice nor in showing any loyalty!
It can be a bit of a game at times.
Honestly, though, plenty selling across the areas you mention under £1-1.5m. Perhaps a little lower than they might have. As ever, it seems, winning the motivated stock is troublesome.
Sheepshanks said:
It doesn't seem long ago that someone was saying Reigate had gone completely bonkers....
Ah context could be useful here, everywhere has gone bonkers since 2012/2013, but when I looked at Reigate a few months ago there were some lovely properties with at least 2 reductions/sat for a while and quite honestly for less ££ than I expected. Also compared to the sold figures the year before I remember thinking that the prices were similar.As much as I like Reigate the rail link into London would drive me potty !
scenario8 said:
I sense there has been some softening but as you may appreciate if you list something competitively and it sells "too quickly" you undervalued it (in the eyes of the masses) but if, for whatever reason, you find yourself with a property at a certain price that the market seems to think should be at X minus 5 or 10% you play the silly game of trying to convince the vendor we should attempt price reductions and then that is called out by market watchers too.
The client, of course, not necessarily interested in professional advice nor in showing any loyalty!
It can be a bit of a game at times.
Honestly, though, plenty selling across the areas you mention under £1-1.5m. Perhaps a little lower than they might have. As ever, it seems, winning the motivated stock is troublesome.
That makes sense, I am not saying prices have collapsed in Reigate but they were certainly better value than I expected and softened isn;t unfair.The client, of course, not necessarily interested in professional advice nor in showing any loyalty!
It can be a bit of a game at times.
Honestly, though, plenty selling across the areas you mention under £1-1.5m. Perhaps a little lower than they might have. As ever, it seems, winning the motivated stock is troublesome.
In fact your local knowledge would be golden!
I see a few key areas around that part (and I am mainly interested because of family in the area). My views on the areas, would be interested to see your perspective.
Reigate - Lovely area, nice highstreet, nice housing stock nearby but the train service is just that little too slow.
Salfords - Odd place? - Seems to be in a bit of a no-mans land with a large road that runs through with countryside on one side but the main road dotted with houses/commercial
Horley - Whilst it is close to Gatwick, it seems to have some nicer roads like Limes, a developing high street and decent link (albiet southern
) into London. Redhill - I have only driven past the shopping centre bit, a tad off putting but seemingly nice housing stock, a little on the higher side with a couple of links into London.
Is that about the gist of it? Anywhere else that is an obvious contender for a London commute?
V6Alfisti said:
That makes sense, I am not saying prices have collapsed in Reigate but they were certainly better value than I expected and softened isn;t unfair.
In fact your local knowledge would be golden!
I see a few key areas around that part (and I am mainly interested because of family in the area). My views on the areas, would be interested to see your perspective.
Reigate - Lovely area, nice highstreet, nice housing stock nearby but the train service is just that little too slow.
Salfords - Odd place? - Seems to be in a bit of a no-mans land with a large road that runs through with countryside on one side but the main road dotted with houses/commercial
Horley - Whilst it is close to Gatwick, it seems to have some nicer roads like Limes, a developing high street and decent link (albiet southern ) into London.
Redhill - I have only driven past the shopping centre bit, a tad off putting but seemingly nice housing stock, a little on the higher side with a couple of links into London.
Is that about the gist of it? Anywhere else that is an obvious contender for a London commute?
They're all lovely! Would Sir care to walk this way..?In fact your local knowledge would be golden!
I see a few key areas around that part (and I am mainly interested because of family in the area). My views on the areas, would be interested to see your perspective.
Reigate - Lovely area, nice highstreet, nice housing stock nearby but the train service is just that little too slow.
Salfords - Odd place? - Seems to be in a bit of a no-mans land with a large road that runs through with countryside on one side but the main road dotted with houses/commercial
Horley - Whilst it is close to Gatwick, it seems to have some nicer roads like Limes, a developing high street and decent link (albiet southern
) into London. Redhill - I have only driven past the shopping centre bit, a tad off putting but seemingly nice housing stock, a little on the higher side with a couple of links into London.
Is that about the gist of it? Anywhere else that is an obvious contender for a London commute?
Of that list Reigate is clearly the nicer. It has more nice places as an absolute number and more proportionally. Horley (in my personal opinion) is far less charming and is affected by Gatwick. Is that a good or bad thing? Horley has been subject to recent new development sites and has many more medium sized on their way. Good thing/bad thing?
Redhill suffers from its relationship with Reigate. In Reigate and on PH snobbishness pervades. Truth is there is a grey area between the two and Redhill has some lovely stock and the rail line is better. Hence many Reigaters using it. The two town centres, however, are obviously quite different!
At the sort of values you are looking at you will get much less for your money in Reigate but that is market forces telling you something.
Dorking is comparable to Reigate.
Ashtead? Leatherhead?
Depends what you want really.
scenario8 said:
They're all lovely! Would Sir care to walk this way..?
Of that list Reigate is clearly the nicer. It has more nice places as an absolute number and more proportionally. Horley (in my personal opinion) is far less charming and is affected by Gatwick. Is that a good or bad thing? Horley has been subject to recent new development sites and has many more medium sized on their way. Good thing/bad thing?
Redhill suffers from its relationship with Reigate. In Reigate and on PH snobbishness pervades. Truth is there is a grey area between the two and Redhill has some lovely stock and the rail line is better. Hence many Reigaters using it. The two town centres, however, are obviously quite different!
At the sort of values you are looking at you will get much less for your money in Reigate but that is market forces telling you something.
Dorking is comparable to Reigate.
Ashtead? Leatherhead?
Depends what you want really.
Thanks, I did also look at Dorking as certainly my kind of bag and again tracked a few properties there but the link into London was my issue again.Of that list Reigate is clearly the nicer. It has more nice places as an absolute number and more proportionally. Horley (in my personal opinion) is far less charming and is affected by Gatwick. Is that a good or bad thing? Horley has been subject to recent new development sites and has many more medium sized on their way. Good thing/bad thing?
Redhill suffers from its relationship with Reigate. In Reigate and on PH snobbishness pervades. Truth is there is a grey area between the two and Redhill has some lovely stock and the rail line is better. Hence many Reigaters using it. The two town centres, however, are obviously quite different!
At the sort of values you are looking at you will get much less for your money in Reigate but that is market forces telling you something.
Dorking is comparable to Reigate.
Ashtead? Leatherhead?
Depends what you want really.
Do folk from Reigate regularly use Redhill instead? I was just thinking that they may be more inclined to drive to one of the smaller stations , park for free and find the golden 30-40 minute commute in...however seemingly not?
Priorities are commute, nice housing stock (size/aesthetic), hopefully some form of reasonable highstreet and generally a bit more mid-upmarket.
Sheepshanks said:
V6Alfisti said:
Look at Reigate (that took a particular hit),
It doesn't seem long ago that someone was saying Reigate had gone completely bonkers....3 bed semi went up round the corner for £540k and was sold within a week which is insane if you knew the road. It's by far broken the record for the road if it's gone for near asking and the fact it was gone in a week would suggest it could have.
Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 7th July 16:47
p1stonhead said:
Hasn't taken much of a hit that I've seen. Only totally awful stuff has and the £1.5m+ which isn't really for normal people IMO. Good 4 beds in the decent areas are still £700k+. Anything decent is still going fairly easily.
3 bed semi went up round the corner for £540k and was sold within a week which is insane if you knew the road. It's by far broken the record for the road if it's gone for near asking and the fact it was gone in a week would suggest it could have.
Which one?3 bed semi went up round the corner for £540k and was sold within a week which is insane if you knew the road. It's by far broken the record for the road if it's gone for near asking and the fact it was gone in a week would suggest it could have.
Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 7th July 16:47
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