Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
GravelBen said:
king arthur said:
FB post from a guy in the Ukrainian armed forces:
someone on FB said:
"Expectations of Russians: Ukraine will ask for help from the West
Reality of Russians: Ukraine will ask for help from the West in exporting their bodies
You can sort of see why it's not going so well for the Russians.Reality of Russians: Ukraine will ask for help from the West in exporting their bodies
I saw a video of an old Ukrainian woman walking up to a Russian soldier and telling him (among other less polite things) to put sunflower seeds in his pockets so they would grow where his body falls. They seem like tough people!
Ridgemont said:
For what it’s worth I think people are over thinking this.
It was fairly clear what his objectives were (in as much as past events seem to have verified)
1) grab Donbas
2) knock out Kiev and install ‘puppet’
3) get ‘peace’ accord signed off.
A lot of pre incursion chatter noted that 200k troops were not enough.
But he seemed intent on moving first and employing shock & awe.
What has happened to curve ball that is that resistance is stronger and he hasn’t been able to encircle Kiev to knock it out. He seems to have achieved Donbas objectives.
The Ukrainians are receiving steady material which is bleeding him but the biggest problem is that set of demolished bridges leading to Kiev with that 17km of heavy artillery and no way through.
Until and if he gets that in order the central gov isn’t going anywhere.
Given time he may be able to: that’s what engineers get paid the big bucks to sort.
But in the meantime he’s mired down and things like the additional planes make his job harder.
It becomes a waiting game. I doubt there is anyone within the Kremlin with the balls to get rid of him.
So we’re at a bit of an impasse.
But time is not on his side. A guess from AEP in the Telegraph suggested that he probably lost 2 3rds of the $600bn war chest as part of the sanctions. He’s burning through a likely $15-20bn a day keeping this going.
So he probably has around a week left before things become tricky financially.
My guess is eventually they will get the artillery in place. Bombardment will begin. It will look terrible and he won’t have the time to properly do a Grozny on it.
He’ll agree some kind of agreed peace with UKr gov around Crimea/Donbas and naturality (in as much as EU/NATO is put on hold in name only).
Then he walks it all back trying to try and hold onto some of his self respect.
that's the problem really isn't it. With his ambitions to "shock and awe" Ukraine then use that to get what he wants in the Baltic's / other neighboring states by saber-rattling alone, he may have to double down and get really nasty to come out of this looking tough. Which would be a civilian tragedy.It was fairly clear what his objectives were (in as much as past events seem to have verified)
1) grab Donbas
2) knock out Kiev and install ‘puppet’
3) get ‘peace’ accord signed off.
A lot of pre incursion chatter noted that 200k troops were not enough.
But he seemed intent on moving first and employing shock & awe.
What has happened to curve ball that is that resistance is stronger and he hasn’t been able to encircle Kiev to knock it out. He seems to have achieved Donbas objectives.
The Ukrainians are receiving steady material which is bleeding him but the biggest problem is that set of demolished bridges leading to Kiev with that 17km of heavy artillery and no way through.
Until and if he gets that in order the central gov isn’t going anywhere.
Given time he may be able to: that’s what engineers get paid the big bucks to sort.
But in the meantime he’s mired down and things like the additional planes make his job harder.
It becomes a waiting game. I doubt there is anyone within the Kremlin with the balls to get rid of him.
So we’re at a bit of an impasse.
But time is not on his side. A guess from AEP in the Telegraph suggested that he probably lost 2 3rds of the $600bn war chest as part of the sanctions. He’s burning through a likely $15-20bn a day keeping this going.
So he probably has around a week left before things become tricky financially.
My guess is eventually they will get the artillery in place. Bombardment will begin. It will look terrible and he won’t have the time to properly do a Grozny on it.
He’ll agree some kind of agreed peace with UKr gov around Crimea/Donbas and naturality (in as much as EU/NATO is put on hold in name only).
Then he walks it all back trying to try and hold onto some of his self respect.
Eventually they will surely get air superiority though? Or will western MANPADs coming in stay a threat?
This is a good thread from Michael Kofman trying to figure out Russian military mistakes. His analysis has been really solid since before the invasion:
https://mobile.twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/14...
https://mobile.twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/14...
Wadeski said:
Eventually they will surely get air superiority though? Or will western MANPADs coming in stay a threat?
Depends how prolonged it gets. The EU just provided something like 55 MiG-29s and 15 Su-25 ground attack aircraft from member state reserves. If this carries on for months and years, we could be supplying modern Western combat aircraft, pilot training and the like. Wadeski said:
Ridgemont said:
For what it’s worth I think people are over thinking this.
It was fairly clear what his objectives were (in as much as past events seem to have verified)
1) grab Donbas
2) knock out Kiev and install ‘puppet’
3) get ‘peace’ accord signed off.
A lot of pre incursion chatter noted that 200k troops were not enough.
But he seemed intent on moving first and employing shock & awe.
What has happened to curve ball that is that resistance is stronger and he hasn’t been able to encircle Kiev to knock it out. He seems to have achieved Donbas objectives.
The Ukrainians are receiving steady material which is bleeding him but the biggest problem is that set of demolished bridges leading to Kiev with that 17km of heavy artillery and no way through.
Until and if he gets that in order the central gov isn’t going anywhere.
Given time he may be able to: that’s what engineers get paid the big bucks to sort.
But in the meantime he’s mired down and things like the additional planes make his job harder.
It becomes a waiting game. I doubt there is anyone within the Kremlin with the balls to get rid of him.
So we’re at a bit of an impasse.
But time is not on his side. A guess from AEP in the Telegraph suggested that he probably lost 2 3rds of the $600bn war chest as part of the sanctions. He’s burning through a likely $15-20bn a day keeping this going.
So he probably has around a week left before things become tricky financially.
My guess is eventually they will get the artillery in place. Bombardment will begin. It will look terrible and he won’t have the time to properly do a Grozny on it.
He’ll agree some kind of agreed peace with UKr gov around Crimea/Donbas and naturality (in as much as EU/NATO is put on hold in name only).
Then he walks it all back trying to try and hold onto some of his self respect.
that's the problem really isn't it. With his ambitions to "shock and awe" Ukraine then use that to get what he wants in the Baltic's / other neighboring states by saber-rattling alone, he may have to double down and get really nasty to come out of this looking tough. Which would be a civilian tragedy.It was fairly clear what his objectives were (in as much as past events seem to have verified)
1) grab Donbas
2) knock out Kiev and install ‘puppet’
3) get ‘peace’ accord signed off.
A lot of pre incursion chatter noted that 200k troops were not enough.
But he seemed intent on moving first and employing shock & awe.
What has happened to curve ball that is that resistance is stronger and he hasn’t been able to encircle Kiev to knock it out. He seems to have achieved Donbas objectives.
The Ukrainians are receiving steady material which is bleeding him but the biggest problem is that set of demolished bridges leading to Kiev with that 17km of heavy artillery and no way through.
Until and if he gets that in order the central gov isn’t going anywhere.
Given time he may be able to: that’s what engineers get paid the big bucks to sort.
But in the meantime he’s mired down and things like the additional planes make his job harder.
It becomes a waiting game. I doubt there is anyone within the Kremlin with the balls to get rid of him.
So we’re at a bit of an impasse.
But time is not on his side. A guess from AEP in the Telegraph suggested that he probably lost 2 3rds of the $600bn war chest as part of the sanctions. He’s burning through a likely $15-20bn a day keeping this going.
So he probably has around a week left before things become tricky financially.
My guess is eventually they will get the artillery in place. Bombardment will begin. It will look terrible and he won’t have the time to properly do a Grozny on it.
He’ll agree some kind of agreed peace with UKr gov around Crimea/Donbas and naturality (in as much as EU/NATO is put on hold in name only).
Then he walks it all back trying to try and hold onto some of his self respect.
Eventually they will surely get air superiority though? Or will western MANPADs coming in stay a threat?
Ridgemont said:
For what it’s worth I think people are over thinking this.
It was fairly clear what his objectives were (in as much as past events seem to have verified)
1) grab Donbas
2) knock out Kiev and install ‘puppet’
3) get ‘peace’ accord signed off.
A lot of pre incursion chatter noted that 200k troops were not enough.
But he seemed intent on moving first and employing shock & awe.
What has happened to curve ball that is that resistance is stronger and he hasn’t been able to encircle Kiev to knock it out. He seems to have achieved Donbas objectives.
The Ukrainians are receiving steady material which is bleeding him but the biggest problem is that set of demolished bridges leading to Kiev with that 17km of heavy artillery and no way through.
Until and if he gets that in order the central gov isn’t going anywhere.
Given time he may be able to: that’s what engineers get paid the big bucks to sort.
But in the meantime he’s mired down and things like the additional planes make his job harder.
It becomes a waiting game. I doubt there is anyone within the Kremlin with the balls to get rid of him.
So we’re at a bit of an impasse.
But time is not on his side. A guess from AEP in the Telegraph suggested that he probably lost 2 3rds of the $600bn war chest as part of the sanctions. He’s burning through a likely $15-20bn a day keeping this going.
So he probably has around a week left before things become tricky financially.
My guess is eventually they will get the artillery in place. Bombardment will begin. It will look terrible and he won’t have the time to properly do a Grozny on it.
He’ll agree some kind of agreed peace with UKr gov around Crimea/Donbas and naturality (in as much as EU/NATO is put on hold in name only).
Then he walks it all back trying to try and hold onto some of his self respect.
USA has a once in a lifetime chance to change Russia forever. They have EU on side, China is staying out. Letting Russia make a deal with Ukraine will just mean business as usual. Putin may be weakened/lose power but the replacement will likely be more of the same.It was fairly clear what his objectives were (in as much as past events seem to have verified)
1) grab Donbas
2) knock out Kiev and install ‘puppet’
3) get ‘peace’ accord signed off.
A lot of pre incursion chatter noted that 200k troops were not enough.
But he seemed intent on moving first and employing shock & awe.
What has happened to curve ball that is that resistance is stronger and he hasn’t been able to encircle Kiev to knock it out. He seems to have achieved Donbas objectives.
The Ukrainians are receiving steady material which is bleeding him but the biggest problem is that set of demolished bridges leading to Kiev with that 17km of heavy artillery and no way through.
Until and if he gets that in order the central gov isn’t going anywhere.
Given time he may be able to: that’s what engineers get paid the big bucks to sort.
But in the meantime he’s mired down and things like the additional planes make his job harder.
It becomes a waiting game. I doubt there is anyone within the Kremlin with the balls to get rid of him.
So we’re at a bit of an impasse.
But time is not on his side. A guess from AEP in the Telegraph suggested that he probably lost 2 3rds of the $600bn war chest as part of the sanctions. He’s burning through a likely $15-20bn a day keeping this going.
So he probably has around a week left before things become tricky financially.
My guess is eventually they will get the artillery in place. Bombardment will begin. It will look terrible and he won’t have the time to properly do a Grozny on it.
He’ll agree some kind of agreed peace with UKr gov around Crimea/Donbas and naturality (in as much as EU/NATO is put on hold in name only).
Then he walks it all back trying to try and hold onto some of his self respect.
I would suggest it is in the interest of the USA to keep these sanctions that are being applied on for a long period and seek to remove the 'russia problem' permanently.
MDMetal said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
A cunning plan to send paratroopers to capture an airport and fail miserably the first time and 2nd time too?And Putin hasn't just been using conscripts, UKR have downed about 6 planes of special forces.
Wadeski said:
Eventually they will surely get air superiority though? Or will western MANPADs coming in stay a threat?
The way I see it, something has to change in their approach or all that’s going to happen is the death toll increases until the Russian lemmings stop following each other into the end of an NLAW.The Ukrainians have proved themselves, so the west is no longer worried about them being overrun and Russia clearing up its kit, so stacks more is flooding in, morale is as high as it gets. They haven’t even managed to overrun the cities, where it really gets difficult.
The longer the Russians take to find a different approach the more the money burns and the word spreads within Russia.
GravelBen said:
I saw a video of an old Ukrainian woman walking up to a Russian soldier and telling him (among other less polite things) to put sunflower seeds in his pockets so they would grow where his body falls. They seem like tough people!
k some Russians up and appears to be armed with jusr a metal bollard he's grabbed from the street. I think he's made a number of balls ups to date so far & the Ukrainians are fighting like he didn't expect.
I think however it's a waiting game now of how long til he gets the bulk of his forces within striking distance of the capital.
Then the supply chain catches up. Look at what he did to Grozny. Surround Kiev then open up with the really big guns. I suspect it'll be indiscriminate, and horrifying to us watching on.
The BBC reckons that to date Ukraine has only been hit with 56 rockets & 113 cruise missiles. For comparison the US & Allies launched 1700 air sorties as part of shock and awe on Iraq including around 504 cruise missile strikes at a minimum.
Not suggesting Vlad has the same resource available but I think once he gets into position the Ukrainians are in for a pretty horrendous ride.
I think however it's a waiting game now of how long til he gets the bulk of his forces within striking distance of the capital.
Then the supply chain catches up. Look at what he did to Grozny. Surround Kiev then open up with the really big guns. I suspect it'll be indiscriminate, and horrifying to us watching on.
The BBC reckons that to date Ukraine has only been hit with 56 rockets & 113 cruise missiles. For comparison the US & Allies launched 1700 air sorties as part of shock and awe on Iraq including around 504 cruise missile strikes at a minimum.
Not suggesting Vlad has the same resource available but I think once he gets into position the Ukrainians are in for a pretty horrendous ride.
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