Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

Author
Discussion

sisu

2,634 posts

175 months

Wednesday 22nd May
quotequote all
There are a couple of points to make from a Finnish perspective. We have a stronger military position now than at any time in our history. Unlike other European countries who have professionalized the military into swat teams. Finland over the past 30 years has spent money on long term strategic equipment and on site manufacturing including passive civilian planning as we were not in NATO. We bought used Leopard Tanks and other air defence and have only this year increased over the 2% gdp line.
Russia has spent the last 2 1/2 years emptying its assets from the border, maybe not in the Northern Lapland Kola peninsula. But they are depleted.
We are not as alarmist as Sweden or other countries given the depth we have as a stepping off point. We have all the things that Ukraine is asking for at the moment already in place. Europe's largest Artillery network, including manufacturing on site, we are bigger than Germany.
Having observed the Russian war against Ukraine with strikes on civilian targets, it has reinforced the Total War planning of Finland. This idea of what does say your power company do with all the other parts of society to act if there is a disaster. Not just a war.

Unlike the pre Nato time where Estonia/Lithuania are isolated as a geographical outpost, now the ambiguity of Finland and Swedens role in Russia's plan is not there and this is very challenging for Russia. Given that St Petersburg is only 300km from our border and we could strike at any point East of Finland its not as easy as it once was.

We don't term the threat in our training as the "Yellow opponent" anymore, its just Russia. This decision to make waters inland Russian has no affect on our strategy in the future as this is Russia on its own doing this, not an agreement or any international law.
Along with our 65 F-35s the Navy are getting new ships which are already in production in Ussikaupunki as we speak.

BikeBikeBIke

8,411 posts

117 months

Wednesday 22nd May
quotequote all
Digga said:
It's just one small, but interesting indicator though, in the vast imponderable slew of data that you consider when wondering "how long can they go on for?"

The nation is, basically, eating itself.
Random thoughts:

Obvs, Putin's horizon is his lifetime and the lifetime of his lackeys who are all in their 70s.

The process of ceasing to eat yourself also comes with pain.

Russia are planning to reduce military spending after this year.


Rumblestripe

3,006 posts

164 months

Wednesday 22nd May
quotequote all


Artillery shell shortage ended.

Cheib

23,377 posts

177 months

Wednesday 22nd May
quotequote all
sisu said:
There are a couple of points to make from a Finnish perspective. We have a stronger military position now than at any time in our history. Unlike other European countries who have professionalized the military into swat teams. Finland over the past 30 years has spent money on long term strategic equipment and on site manufacturing including passive civilian planning as we were not in NATO. We bought used Leopard Tanks and other air defence and have only this year increased over the 2% gdp line.
Russia has spent the last 2 1/2 years emptying its assets from the border, maybe not in the Northern Lapland Kola peninsula. But they are depleted.
We are not as alarmist as Sweden or other countries given the depth we have as a stepping off point. We have all the things that Ukraine is asking for at the moment already in place. Europe's largest Artillery network, including manufacturing on site, we are bigger than Germany.
Having observed the Russian war against Ukraine with strikes on civilian targets, it has reinforced the Total War planning of Finland. This idea of what does say your power company do with all the other parts of society to act if there is a disaster. Not just a war.

Unlike the pre Nato time where Estonia/Lithuania are isolated as a geographical outpost, now the ambiguity of Finland and Swedens role in Russia's plan is not there and this is very challenging for Russia. Given that St Petersburg is only 300km from our border and we could strike at any point East of Finland its not as easy as it once was.

We don't term the threat in our training as the "Yellow opponent" anymore, its just Russia. This decision to make waters inland Russian has no affect on our strategy in the future as this is Russia on its own doing this, not an agreement or any international law.
Along with our 65 F-35s the Navy are getting new ships which are already in production in Ussikaupunki as we speak.
That’s really interesting, thanks for posting that. Certainly sounds like Finland have done an impressive job and put a lot of Europe to shame !

bmwmike

7,041 posts

110 months

Wednesday 22nd May
quotequote all
Rumblestripe said:


Artillery shell shortage ended.
How were they transported so quickly, do we know? Presumably there is a lot of logistics and then the actual transportation, but it seems to have happened very quickly.

Spare tyre

9,757 posts

132 months

Wednesday 22nd May
quotequote all
bmwmike said:
Rumblestripe said:


Artillery shell shortage ended.
How were they transported so quickly, do we know? Presumably there is a lot of logistics and then the actual transportation, but it seems to have happened very quickly.
I’m guessing they were already in Poland or similar, or some jolly big planes from USA sorted it

Nice targets!

Slowboathome

3,690 posts

46 months

Wednesday 22nd May
quotequote all
Cheib said:
That’s really interesting, thanks for posting that. Certainly sounds like Finland have done an impressive job and put a lot of Europe to shame !
Seconded.

Digga

40,488 posts

285 months

Wednesday 22nd May
quotequote all
Spare tyre said:
bmwmike said:
Rumblestripe said:


Artillery shell shortage ended.
How were they transported so quickly, do we know? Presumably there is a lot of logistics and then the actual transportation, but it seems to have happened very quickly.
I’m guessing they were already in Poland or similar, or some jolly big planes from USA sorted it

Nice targets!
There was a fair bit about this at the time of the US political decissions. Basically, the military had moved much of the kit as close to Ukraine as possible, well ahead of time. On top of that, running your own international air freight routes makes moving any other stuff pretty rapid and straightforward.

It would seem, reading between the lines, that whilst congress and the political machine were prepared to use the point as a political football, the US military were in no doubt about what should be done, or the gravity of the situation. Anyway, kudos to all involved in the logistics and all strength the the UA.

Bright Halo

3,050 posts

237 months

Wednesday 22nd May
quotequote all
I would imagine there that a massive stockpile of arms and ammunition has been built up since this all kicked off in and around Poland “just in case”.

C n C

3,369 posts

223 months

Wednesday 22nd May
quotequote all
Cheib said:
sisu said:
There are a couple of points to make from a Finnish perspective. We have a stronger military position now than at any time in our history. Unlike other European countries who have professionalized the military into swat teams. Finland over the past 30 years has spent money on long term strategic equipment and on site manufacturing including passive civilian planning as we were not in NATO. We bought used Leopard Tanks and other air defence and have only this year increased over the 2% gdp line.
Russia has spent the last 2 1/2 years emptying its assets from the border, maybe not in the Northern Lapland Kola peninsula. But they are depleted.
We are not as alarmist as Sweden or other countries given the depth we have as a stepping off point. We have all the things that Ukraine is asking for at the moment already in place. Europe's largest Artillery network, including manufacturing on site, we are bigger than Germany.
Having observed the Russian war against Ukraine with strikes on civilian targets, it has reinforced the Total War planning of Finland. This idea of what does say your power company do with all the other parts of society to act if there is a disaster. Not just a war.

Unlike the pre Nato time where Estonia/Lithuania are isolated as a geographical outpost, now the ambiguity of Finland and Swedens role in Russia's plan is not there and this is very challenging for Russia. Given that St Petersburg is only 300km from our border and we could strike at any point East of Finland its not as easy as it once was.

We don't term the threat in our training as the "Yellow opponent" anymore, its just Russia. This decision to make waters inland Russian has no affect on our strategy in the future as this is Russia on its own doing this, not an agreement or any international law.
Along with our 65 F-35s the Navy are getting new ships which are already in production in Ussikaupunki as we speak.
That’s really interesting, thanks for posting that. Certainly sounds like Finland have done an impressive job and put a lot of Europe to shame !
Agreed.
A while ago (possibly linked from this thread), I saw a short video which provided some information on the Finnish military. Very interesting, and very much in line with what Sisu posted above.

borcy

3,305 posts

58 months

Wednesday 22nd May
quotequote all

Cheib

23,377 posts

177 months

Wednesday 22nd May
quotequote all
Spare tyre said:
bmwmike said:
Rumblestripe said:


Artillery shell shortage ended.
How were they transported so quickly, do we know? Presumably there is a lot of logistics and then the actual transportation, but it seems to have happened very quickly.
I’m guessing they were already in Poland or similar, or some jolly big planes from USA sorted it

Nice targets!
When you think of how starved of resources Ukraine has been Russia really haven't made any significant advances....you could say that this really was their golden opportunity.

This is quite a good watch. 80% of Russian vehicle supply are refurbed old stock, by the end of next year Russia will have to start making new vehicles because they will have run out of stock of old kit to raid. A lot more in it than that a fairly detailed summary of the state of things right now.

https://youtu.be/c2-UtAsdyBU?si=JoWXX9CqECcKUoMA

off_again

12,456 posts

236 months

Wednesday 22nd May
quotequote all
Cheib said:
sisu said:
There are a couple of points to make from a Finnish perspective. We have a stronger military position now than at any time in our history. Unlike other European countries who have professionalized the military into swat teams. Finland over the past 30 years has spent money on long term strategic equipment and on site manufacturing including passive civilian planning as we were not in NATO. We bought used Leopard Tanks and other air defence and have only this year increased over the 2% gdp line.
Russia has spent the last 2 1/2 years emptying its assets from the border, maybe not in the Northern Lapland Kola peninsula. But they are depleted.
We are not as alarmist as Sweden or other countries given the depth we have as a stepping off point. We have all the things that Ukraine is asking for at the moment already in place. Europe's largest Artillery network, including manufacturing on site, we are bigger than Germany.
Having observed the Russian war against Ukraine with strikes on civilian targets, it has reinforced the Total War planning of Finland. This idea of what does say your power company do with all the other parts of society to act if there is a disaster. Not just a war.

Unlike the pre Nato time where Estonia/Lithuania are isolated as a geographical outpost, now the ambiguity of Finland and Swedens role in Russia's plan is not there and this is very challenging for Russia. Given that St Petersburg is only 300km from our border and we could strike at any point East of Finland its not as easy as it once was.

We don't term the threat in our training as the "Yellow opponent" anymore, its just Russia. This decision to make waters inland Russian has no affect on our strategy in the future as this is Russia on its own doing this, not an agreement or any international law.
Along with our 65 F-35s the Navy are getting new ships which are already in production in Ussikaupunki as we speak.
That’s really interesting, thanks for posting that. Certainly sounds like Finland have done an impressive job and put a lot of Europe to shame !
They have, and will continue to! Worked for a couple of Finnish companies over the years and been there lots of times. It is astonishing how much the Finn's have done to defend themselves for the long term. From bunkers in buildings to flexibility of deployment of the military, they have pretty much planned for it all.

Finland absolutely punches well above its size and would be a formidable opponent for Russia, should they wish to 'give it a go'. Finland fought long and hard for its independence and culture over hundreds of years and has been the subject of a number of oppressive regimes, control and rule by its neighbors. Once it got its independence, its not going to give it up any time soon. Finland played the long game and it shows.

Wayoftheflower

1,340 posts

237 months

Thursday 23rd May
quotequote all
Fanscinating interview with Professor Sarah Paine of the US Naval War College touching on global stability, grand strategy, the war in Ukraine and also Taiwan. I don't think it has been posted before, it's seven months old so apologies if so.

I've yet to watch the whole two and half hours but in the short excerpts there are some very coherent points on Putin, Sanctions and Global order. Probably not actually anything that hasn't been said before, but it's good to hear it so eloquently from someone who has forgotten more about military history and strategy than I'll ever learn.

Snippet of the interview specifically on Nuclear escalation but I've timestamped on her comment about Putin having no backup plan.
https://youtu.be/UUNYqAFrlFA?feature=shared&t=...

Full interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcVSgYz5SJ8

I shall have to pick up some of her books on Military History.

ecsrobin

17,345 posts

167 months

Thursday 23rd May
quotequote all
Wayoftheflower said:
Fanscinating interview with Professor Sarah Paine of the US Naval War College touching on global stability, grand strategy, the war in Ukraine and also Taiwan. I don't think it has been posted before, it's seven months old so apologies if so.

I've yet to watch the whole two and half hours but in the short excerpts there are some very coherent points on Putin, Sanctions and Global order. Probably not actually anything that hasn't been said before, but it's good to hear it so eloquently from someone who has forgotten more about military history and strategy than I'll ever learn.

Snippet of the interview specifically on Nuclear escalation but I've timestamped on her comment about Putin having no backup plan.
https://youtu.be/UUNYqAFrlFA?feature=shared&t=...

Full interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcVSgYz5SJ8

I shall have to pick up some of her books on Military History.
Very interesting, thanks.

sisu

2,634 posts

175 months

Thursday 23rd May
quotequote all
The Russians have arrested a 3rd General Ivan Popov. He is not an uber rich yacht owner. He was the Southern General in Ukraine, one who criticised Suiguo and the others and being a soldiers soldier he was transferred to Syria after criticising openly how the war is being run on TV.
After Shuiguo and the new defence minister economist Andrei Belousov got back from China they arrested Popov on allegations of theft, embezzling $1mil in the procurement of the metal to be used in defences.
Reason why you would see this as odd, Popov was not the General incharge of buying equipment, Timur Ivanov was in charge of procurement for the military in that region. Why was a General recalled from Syria and arrested?

This is a good way to remove threats from the only challenge to KGB authority, probably not the best when you are fighting a war.

Digga

40,488 posts

285 months

Thursday 23rd May
quotequote all
sisu said:
The Russians have arrested a 3rd General Ivan Popov. He is not an uber rich yacht owner. He was the Southern General in Ukraine, one who criticised Suiguo and the others and being a soldiers soldier he was transferred to Syria after criticising openly how the war is being run on TV.
After Shuiguo and the new defence minister economist Andrei Belousov got back from China they arrested Popov on allegations of theft, embezzling $1mil in the procurement of the metal to be used in defences.
Reason why you would see this as odd, Popov was not the General incharge of buying equipment, Timur Ivanov was in charge of procurement for the military in that region. Why was a General recalled from Syria and arrested?

This is a good way to remove threats from the only challenge to KGB authority, probably not the best when you are fighting a war.
It's the last days for a kabal of ageing gangsters and cronies. No one is safe. As the size of the cake decreases, the squabbling and infighting will only intensify.

paua

5,894 posts

145 months

Thursday 23rd May
quotequote all
sisu said:
The Russians have arrested a 3rd General Ivan Popov. He is not an uber rich yacht owner. He was the Southern General in Ukraine, one who criticised Suiguo and the others and being a soldiers soldier he was transferred to Syria after criticising openly how the war is being run on TV.
After Shuiguo and the new defence minister economist Andrei Belousov got back from China they arrested Popov on allegations of theft, embezzling $1mil in the procurement of the metal to be used in defences.
Reason why you would see this as odd, Popov was not the General incharge of buying equipment, Timur Ivanov was in charge of procurement for the military in that region. Why was a General recalled from Syria and arrested?

This is a good way to remove threats from the only challenge to KGB authority, probably not the best when you are fighting a war.
In the scale of things, that's akin to nicking milk money/ paper round money. Don't arrest the guy using a 36m^3 Zerex digger, but get the guy with a shovel.

TGCOTF-dewey

5,391 posts

57 months

Thursday 23rd May
quotequote all
sisu said:
The Russians have arrested a 3rd General Ivan Popov. He is not an uber rich yacht owner. He was the Southern General in Ukraine, one who criticised Suiguo and the others and being a soldiers soldier he was transferred to Syria after criticising openly how the war is being run on TV.
After Shuiguo and the new defence minister economist Andrei Belousov got back from China they arrested Popov on allegations of theft, embezzling $1mil in the procurement of the metal to be used in defences.
Reason why you would see this as odd, Popov was not the General incharge of buying equipment, Timur Ivanov was in charge of procurement for the military in that region. Why was a General recalled from Syria and arrested?

This is a good way to remove threats from the only challenge to KGB authority, probably not the best when you are fighting a war.
Wasn't he in Rentaghost?

BobToc

1,784 posts

119 months

Thursday 23rd May
quotequote all
Another good Rachmann / Jack Watling podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-rachman-...