General Election July 2024

[CivicDuties]

119 said:

p1stonhead said:

Coast should be clear in around 6 weeks time;

I can think of one Labour scandal that trumps all of those.


See if you can guess which one it is.

Ooo, ooo, me Sir! Is it Diane Abbott drinking a gin and tonic from a can on a train?

You could go for the LibDems, too, as surely Chris Huhne would trump ALL those.

[8IKERDAVE]

This election is basically a choice between a punch in the nose and a kick in the balls!

[Mr Penguin]

poo at Paul's said:

I think the timing of the GE to be a little bizarre, tbh, UK has had a tough few years, but is genuinely turning the corner now, fuel prices down, growth up, inflation down, food prices actually dropping here and there, its making a big difference to millions of people, and will continue to do so. Holding off 6 months toward Xmas, there may be an interest rate drop by then too, where the effect has been felt by more people would surely help the incumbent Govt convince more people that their policies have started to work, and garner them millions more votes.

Just makes little sense to me, timing wise.

The timing is odd, and there are some big European level meetings in London in the days after the election.

I think there are a few reasons why he wants to do it now:

1) If you are on the back foot, doing exactly what your opponent expects you to do just compounds your disadvantage.
2) Inflation may increase over the summer (not sure why, but George Osborne suggested this could happen without going into details).
3) Gets to pick more of the candidates, but this can be a double edged sword.
4) Delaying just increases the chance that something big happens in the SNP investigation before the election, which would cause a complete collapse - better to do it now when the SNP are projected to go back to 30 seats rather than wait for events to push it down to low single digits.
5) Rwanda policy will get stuck in the courts with individual appeals and the summer crossings are not within the government's control.
6) Risk of letters going in and more of the candidates to be the next leader making pitches and undermining him.
7) He's probably just fed up and if he wins then he will be a hero and if he loses then he doesn't have to worry about it any more.

[S600BSB]

p1stonhead said:

Coast should be clear in around 6 weeks time;

Fair analysis.

[blearyeyedboy]

Mr E said:

With a very significant majority I do wonder if the schisms in the Labour Party will become more open within a couple of years. If I were Ms Rayner and ambitious, I’d be on manoeuvres pretty early on.

If I were Ms R, I'd bide my time knowing that a leader might choose to leave (or slip up on a banana skin) and knowing that I was Heir Apparent. She'd do better to avoid Conservative-like schisms.

SKS has his flaws but he's smoothly operated to keep the Left in check to stay electable, and AR would do well to do the same.

[WestyCarl]

Mr Penguin said:

The timing is odd, and there are some big European level meetings in London in the days after the election.

I think there are a few reasons why he wants to do it now:

1) If you are on the back foot, doing exactly what your opponent expects you to do just compounds your disadvantage.
2) Inflation may increase over the summer (not sure why, but George Osborne suggested this could happen without going into details).
3) Gets to pick more of the candidates, but this can be a double edged sword.
4) Delaying just increases the chance that something big happens in the SNP investigation before the election, which would cause a complete collapse - better to do it now when the SNP are projected to go back to 30 seats rather than wait for events to push it down to low single digits.
5) Rwanda policy will get stuck in the courts with individual appeals and the summer crossings are not within the government's control.
6) Risk of letters going in and more of the candidates to be the next leader making pitches and undermining him.
7) He's probably just fed up and if he wins then he will be a hero and if he loses then he doesn't have to worry about it any more.

I would add:
8) Likely larger volume of "boats crossing" during the summer (combined with 6)
9) There will likely be more NHS in crisis headlines coming into the autumn / winter

[blearyeyedboy]

bhstewie said:

Where have I defended Abbott other than highlighting the stream of racist and misogynist filth that gets thrown at her?

Threads on her don't get closed down and deleted because people are calling her political ability into question.

Well said.

There is no contradiction in utterly condemning some of the bigoted racist/sexist awfulness directed at Diane Abbott while also questioning her ability to do the job.

She's done a lot in the 80s and 90s which she can rightly be proud of... and in later years struggles with simple maths and makes questionable judgements, in my opinion. I don't know if something health-related or whatever else has affected her thinking, but in my opinion it would be better for her to retire now with some grace than to continue.

[tribalsurfer]

CivicDuties said:

Ooo, ooo, me Sir! Is it Diane Abbott drinking a gin and tonic from a can on a train?

For Christ sake man it was a Mojito !!!!!!

[Mr Penguin]

blearyeyedboy said:

Well said.

There is no contradiction in utterly condemning some of the bigoted racist/sexist awfulness directed at Diane Abbott while also questioning her ability to do the job.

She's done a lot in the 80s and 90s which she can rightly be proud of... and in later years struggles with simple maths and makes questionable judgements, in my opinion. I don't know if something health-related or whatever else has affected her thinking, but in my opinion it would be better for her to retire now with some grace than to continue.

IIRC it was diabetes.
She has said some racist things on multiple occasions but it doesn't justify the abuse she gets, which is far higher than any other MP.

She was a very powerful orator back in the day.

[CivicDuties]

tribalsurfer said:

CivicDuties said:

Ooo, ooo, me Sir! Is it Diane Abbott drinking a gin and tonic from a can on a train?

For Christ sake man it was a Mojito !!!!!!

[Blackpuddin]

119 said:

p1stonhead said:

Coast should be clear in around 6 weeks time;

I can think of one Labour scandal that trumps all of those.


See if you can guess which one it is.

I've had a good objective think about it but you'll have to enlighten us on the one Labour scandal that you believe trumps that lot.

[Blackpuddin]

CivicDuties said:

tribalsurfer said:

CivicDuties said:

Ooo, ooo, me Sir! Is it Diane Abbott drinking a gin and tonic from a can on a train?

For Christ sake man it was a Mojito !!!!!!

[bitchstewie]

blearyeyedboy said:

bhstewie said:

Where have I defended Abbott other than highlighting the stream of racist and misogynist filth that gets thrown at her?

Threads on her don't get closed down and deleted because people are calling her political ability into question.

Well said.

There is no contradiction in utterly condemning some of the bigoted racist/sexist awfulness directed at Diane Abbott while also questioning her ability to do the job.

She's done a lot in the 80s and 90s which she can rightly be proud of... and in later years struggles with simple maths and makes questionable judgements, in my opinion. I don't know if something health-related or whatever else has affected her thinking, but in my opinion it would be better for her to retire now with some grace than to continue.

Tends to be where I am on it.

Don't like her politics but saw her on The Chase about ten years ago and she scored something like ten grand.

She certainly wasn't stupid and as you say I suspect at some point we might found out she had a medical condition or some form of cognitive decline.

But whatever her politics it doesn't justify the likes of Frank Hesters reported comments and the absolute state of some of the sthousery on here trying to defend it or pretend it wasn't the most vile racism.

So if anyone thinks that's me defending her consider me guilty as charged.

[Mr Penguin]

It was also a disgrace that she wasn't allowed to ask a question in PMQs when many of the questions were about her and she wanted to speak for herself. It was a classic case where a common law / precedence based system can be more flexible than a codified constitution and the speaker missed the opportunity.

[Rufus Stone]

Is Abbot standing at the GE?

[carlo996]

bhstewie said:

Where have I defended Abbott other than highlighting the stream of racist and misogynist filth that gets thrown at her?

Threads on her don't get closed down and deleted because people are calling her political ability into question.

Correct. They get closed because when people try to explain to others, like you, that Abbott is a racist, hypocritical piece of bankrupt moral garbage.. you don’t agree

[Abbott]

Rufus Stone said:

Is Abbot standing at the GE?

I'm not planning to

[bitchstewie]

carlo996 said:

Correct. They get closed because when people try to explain to others, like you, that Abbott is a racist, hypocritical piece of bankrupt moral garbage.. you don’t agree

Everyone on here knows that isn't why they get closed and often deleted or moved out of view.

Don't be so bloody daft.

[Rufus Stone]

Abbott said:

I'm not planning to

[bitchstewie]

Rufus Stone said:

Is Abbot standing at the GE?

I think Starmer has been asked a few times as part of the whole "Well you accepted Natalie Elphicke into the party" thing and obviously with a General Election being called it keeps coming up.

Lots of words along the lines of "letting the process conclude" so I assume with the General Election it will need to conclude pretty quickly which will determine if she runs at all or as a Labour candidate or as an independent.