How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[Timberwolf]

Wouldn't be the first time... I remember back in the midst of amateur property development mania in '06 bungalows in the bit of Surrey I lived in at the time being priced as if they were already the 4/5 bedroom house they could become if you took the roof off and rebuilt it. People were buying them at that level as well, although this was 2006 and people were also paying stupid money for derelict shells and holes in the ground, so no particular surprise that something you could actually live in while following your part-time property developer dream commanded stiff money.

[V6Alfisti]

Today's reports

London down 2.4% YoY http://www.acadata.co.uk/LSL%20Acadata%20E&W%2...

Then these relating to rightmove data

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2...

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/13/more...

[V6Alfisti]

zubzob said:

Something odd going on as the lagging indictors today (Land reg) are showing mild increase growth back up towards 6%, but the recent leading indicators (e.g. RICS and Rightmove) are showing a slowing of growth, down towards 1%ish.

So either that has been a mini nominal dip into the red this Autumn, or the leading indicitors are wrong.

Can't really figure it out myself

A few different reasons (but in no way a complete analysis)

• Land Registry reflects sold values but is 3 months behind, Rightmove is based on asking prices and RICS is a mix of both. Surprise surprise, what I see in Rightmove/RICS is exactly what I am seeing in London and to varying levels in the south east.
• Regions – London is fairly consistently shown as dropping MoM/YoY e.g. Acadata averages this out as 2.4% YoY drop, the latest land reg shows a monthly drop of -0.2, but of course that masks massive variance in the market. E.g. Annual drops of 12.8% in hammersmith, 19.2% in Hammersmith, going to -1.6% in Enfield to positive 6.1% in Croydon.
• This may explain the oddities with the land reg http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/26/off...

[Guvernator]

I live in a suburb of North London, the very top of the market, i.e. well into 7 figures seems to have certainly cooled off a bit with regular price drops but the low to medium end which in that part of London can mean anything from £400k-£1m still doesn't seem to have much downward movement on price.

Now I'm not actually sure if they are selling for those prices but they don't seem to be moving too much on price from what I can see. Even if they aren't selling I think a lot of people don't actually need to sell so are content to just sit it out.

[V6Alfisti]

Guvernator said:

I live in a suburb of North London, the very top of the market, i.e. well into 7 figures seems to have certainly cooled off a bit with regular price drops but the low to medium end which in that part of London can mean anything from £400k-£1m still doesn't seem to have much downward movement on price.

Now I'm not actually sure if they are selling for those prices but they don't seem to be moving too much on price from what I can see. Even if they aren't selling I think a lot of people don't actually need to sell so are content to just sit it out.

Which part of North London, I have seen some pretty firm cooling in Hampstead/Maida Vale/Kilburn e.t.c

Anything over 420/425k seems to now be sitting.

Maybe your referring to Northwood e.t.c which I 'think' is a tad more resilient.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 14th November 16:35

[p1stonhead]

V6Alfisti said:

Guvernator said:

I live in a suburb of North London, the very top of the market, i.e. well into 7 figures seems to have certainly cooled off a bit with regular price drops but the low to medium end which in that part of London can mean anything from £400k-£1m still doesn't seem to have much downward movement on price.

Now I'm not actually sure if they are selling for those prices but they don't seem to be moving too much on price from what I can see. Even if they aren't selling I think a lot of people don't actually need to sell so are content to just sit it out.

Which part of North London, I have seen some pretty firm cooling in Hampstead/Maida Vale/Kilburn e.t.c

Anything stupidly priced over 420/425k seems to now be sitting.

Maybe your referring to Northwood e.t.c which I 'think' is a tad more resilient.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 14th November 16:35

Important note I think unless there are good half million pound properties in Hampstead which suddenly no one wants.

[z4RRSchris]

had the same agent round today to value my flat which im putting on the market, this time last year he said 865 to sell, today he says 800 and may need to go lower.

same time im looking to buy the next size up in highgate / hamstead / highbury etc and there is a huge oversupply of 3/4 beds at over £1m which have sat unsold for months and months, price reductions all the way along.

[V6Alfisti]

p1stonhead said:

Important note I think unless there are good half million pound properties in Hampstead which suddenly no one wants.

In accordance with market value of course.
- If people are pricing above market value they will have a problem clearly
- If they are pricing at 2016 values they will likely have a problem
- If they are pricing at fair value there is then an issue as to whether people want to pay it due to the depreciation seen in the market

All bourne out by the RICS report and the vast amount of external reporting.

I am sure there are millions of people that would like property there, but not at any cost.

That's not to say that the £400k-1m world isn't more resilient than higher up, but it's not resilient at any cost.

This will all differ by location though of course.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 14th November 16:57

[princeperch]

z4RRSchris said:

had the same agent round today to value my flat which im putting on the market, this time last year he said 865 to sell, today he says 800 and may need to go lower.

same time im looking to buy the next size up in highgate / hamstead / highbury etc and there is a huge oversupply of 3/4 beds at over £1m which have sat unsold for months and months, price reductions all the way along.

when did you buy? I thought you said a few months/possible a year or two back that you weren't going to buy because market was overpriced and unaffordable etc. perhaps I'm thinking of someone else..

[Guvernator]

V6Alfisti said:

Which part of North London, I have seen some serious cooling in Hampstead/Maida Vale e.t.c

Maybe your referring to Northwood e.t.c which I 'think' is a tad more resilient.

Hampstead isn't North London, that's barely out of central London, I'm talking about proper North London

Cockfosters\Oakwood and other areas around Trent Park etc. I tend to keep an eye on house prices within a 2 mile radius of my house just out of amateur curiosity and I'm not seeing much if any downward price movement except at the very top £1m+ category.

[zygalski]

I come alive
Outside the M25

[V6Alfisti]

Guvernator said:

Hampstead isn't North London, that's barely out of central London, I'm talking about proper North London

Cockfosters\Oakwood and other areas around Trent Park etc. I tend to keep an eye on house prices within a 2 mile radius of my house just out of amateur curiosity and I'm not seeing much if any downward price movement except at the very top £1m+ category.

Ah, no idea about those areas. Logic would suggest that as more desirable inner areas get cheaper then so will the outer.

Seems to have headed south, but not up that way yet.

There will be glitches in the matrix/logic however as bourne out by the acadata map.

[z4RRSchris]

princeperch said:

z4RRSchris said:

had the same agent round today to value my flat which im putting on the market, this time last year he said 865 to sell, today he says 800 and may need to go lower.

same time im looking to buy the next size up in highgate / hamstead / highbury etc and there is a huge oversupply of 3/4 beds at over £1m which have sat unsold for months and months, price reductions all the way along.

when did you buy? I thought you said a few months/possible a year or two back that you weren't going to buy because market was overpriced and unaffordable etc. perhaps I'm thinking of someone else..

was me,

had the flat since 1995,

market is hard, but i need a larger place.

[NRS]

z4RRSchris said:

was me,

had the flat since 1995,

market is hard, but i need a larger place.

If you're upgrading this is actually better, assuming you have enough for the deposit (assuming any price drops are uniform/ higher in the more pricy part of the market).

[princeperch]

z4RRSchris said:

was me,

had the flat since 1995,

market is hard, but i need a larger place.

You stumped up the cash or parents did? Not knocking you if the latter but buying in 1995 and sitting on a 600k capital gain will make market movements easier to swallow...

[Burwood]

What was it Chris. I bought my first flat in Canary Wharf, 1998. 2 bed for 210k which would be 850k now. I assume yours was 195ish?

[Thankyou4calling]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Black Friday soon. May bag a £10,000 coffee maker for £9,950 extrapolate that across the refit.

[fido]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

So wasting his time and the vendor's time as it will just sit on the market.

[z4RRSchris]

princeperch said:

You stumped up the cash or parents did? Not knocking you if the latter but buying in 1995 and sitting on a 600k capital gain will make market movements easier to swallow...

parents, 120k 2 bed 840sqft.

savills and SAk have both said 775-800 to sell it today, a year ago they said 865k, -10% in a year.

[princeperch]

we didn't know it at the time but 2009-2011 in London was a golden time. A lot of people made a lot of money then.

I also don't think we will see values drop to where they did in that period (which in some instances in east London was back to 2004 values) but who knows.

I presume Chris's flat also has a painful service charge and an increasingly crap lease?