CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 11)
Discussion
Venturist said:
dangerousB said:
This has gotten drowned out with people arguing about who believes in lizardpeople unfortunately. Very interesting read about the real technicalities of exactly how deaths get classified as covid deaths, how various checks and balances were removed and essentially the scales weighted extremely heavily in favour of reporting a death as being covid.
All this was implemented last year as new changes moving away from established procedure, by the NHS and WHO.
If we dismiss the lizardpeople and corrupt elite takeover angles and assume that health organisations are doing what they believe is best to help humanity, it looks to me like a panicked response to a presumed incredibly dangerous virus, where we would have huge casualty numbers and shortage of medical staff available to assess them. In this scenario it would be vital to keep death recording as easy as possible to ensure we aren’t missing any, and case tracking simplified to make sure we have eyes on the progress of the virus among the population so we are prepared to respond.
Unfortunately this also means we were vulnerable to hugely over-reporting a disease that did not turn out to be as dangerous as first thought. In over-reporting it, we kept its apparent danger higher than it truly is, creating a feedback loop - we report it because it’s so dangerous, yet it seems so dangerous only because we report it. Is the WHO acting like a hypochondriac?
The mysteries as I see it:
1. In the tweaking of death reporting criteria and processes, why was it biased towards implying deaths were unambiguously covid deaths when there may have been in many cases significant doubt - to manage a disease properly you would WANT this information, so to gloss over it is either malicious or negligent.
2. Why this wasn’t all unravelled when the facts started to come in around the summer last year, and we saw evidentially that covid was of little risk to the healthy working age population.
The answers to those questions are up to you of course.
As you were...
poo at Paul's said:
markyb_lcy said:
Obsolete Driver said:
markyb_lcy said:
That’s quite the pivot from “historical vaccines are safe so this one must be” and “vaccines can’t possibly be more dangerous than the virus they seek to vaccinate against”, to “paracetamol can kill”.
Sorry, are you saying the vaccination is more dangerous than the virus?Essentially the calculation would look like this...
Odds of dying from covid (for a given age group) = odds of catching covid x odds of dying from covid (IFR)
Odds of dying from a given vaccine (for a given age group) = odds of blood clot (1 in 250k for AZ under 30s) x odds of blood clot causing death (CFR of blood clots)
While prevalence is as low as it is, the chance of catching covid is very low (and is further compounded to a debatable degree by the lingering restrictions).
Venturist said:
dangerousB said:
This has gotten drowned out with people arguing about who believes in lizardpeople unfortunately. Very interesting read about the real technicalities of exactly how deaths get classified as covid deaths, how various checks and balances were removed and essentially the scales weighted extremely heavily in favour of reporting a death as being covid.
All this was implemented last year as new changes moving away from established procedure, by the NHS and WHO.
If we dismiss the lizardpeople and corrupt elite takeover angles and assume that health organisations are doing what they believe is best to help humanity, it looks to me like a panicked response to a presumed incredibly dangerous virus, where we would have huge casualty numbers and shortage of medical staff available to assess them. In this scenario it would be vital to keep death recording as easy as possible to ensure we aren’t missing any, and case tracking simplified to make sure we have eyes on the progress of the virus among the population so we are prepared to respond.
Unfortunately this also means we were vulnerable to hugely over-reporting a disease that did not turn out to be as dangerous as first thought. In over-reporting it, we kept its apparent danger higher than it truly is, creating a feedback loop - we report it because it’s so dangerous, yet it seems so dangerous only because we report it. Is the WHO acting like a hypochondriac?
The mysteries as I see it:
1. In the tweaking of death reporting criteria and processes, why was it biased towards implying deaths were unambiguously covid deaths when there may have been in many cases significant doubt - to manage a disease properly you would WANT this information, so to gloss over it is either malicious or negligent.
2. Why this wasn’t all unravelled when the facts started to come in around the summer last year, and we saw evidentially that covid was of little risk to the healthy working age population.
The answers to those questions are up to you of course.
Data not dates........
Nickgnome said:
Scotty2 said:
Comment from a Butcher serving me yesterday: " I have to wear a mask all day but the pollen is causing me hay fever - So why do I have to wear a mask that allows pollen through and is therefore no barrier to the virus?"
I reluctantly wore one while is was full on to do my bit although exempt, but now I have ditched the muzzle and wear my lanyard. It is time to drop the masks. They are useless just virtue signaling.
I've rarely seen much pollen in a Butchers. Particularly if properly ventilated.I reluctantly wore one while is was full on to do my bit although exempt, but now I have ditched the muzzle and wear my lanyard. It is time to drop the masks. They are useless just virtue signaling.
Hey ho if it makes you feel like a man!
t, no matter which angle they are coming from. Nickgnome said:
Sanders123 said:
Ntv said:
Great to see the demos in London yesterday.
Saw the police being chased out of Hyde Park and getting a bit of a doing without all their protective gear on.
I sense a mere warm up for the summer, when the boys and girls in blue are going to have a fun time!
I also think the BBC's diligent efforts to not cover / cover as little as credibly possible such opposition is counter-productive.
Being labelled a "conspiracist" / "covid-denier" / "covidiot" because you want to see friends and family, enjoy the same quality of life as 2019, and care about mass unemployment says everything about the name-callers.
The police have been just as bad as the government and the MSM throughout. They deserve everything they get.Saw the police being chased out of Hyde Park and getting a bit of a doing without all their protective gear on.
I sense a mere warm up for the summer, when the boys and girls in blue are going to have a fun time!
I also think the BBC's diligent efforts to not cover / cover as little as credibly possible such opposition is counter-productive.
Being labelled a "conspiracist" / "covid-denier" / "covidiot" because you want to see friends and family, enjoy the same quality of life as 2019, and care about mass unemployment says everything about the name-callers.
They deserve our support and respect. Nothing more nothing less.
Nickgnome said:
Ntv said:
It's called loss of output.
Think cumulative.
I understand cumulative and we as a nation voted for a cumulative impact just 5 years ago.Think cumulative.
There is no reason why the UK cannot regain that output especially as most of the developed world has suffered also so the UK should drive to rebound more quickly.
We will be below where we would have been for a long time to come, perhaps indefinitely (however meaningless the comparison might become as the years go by)
Re your second sentence, the changed patterns of behaviour and long-term unemployment are consistent with a good reason to believe the loss of output might not be fully recovered, and that many lives will be ruined that would not have otherwise been the case. That would be consistent with previous deep recessions.
It might be that we will recover the output, though given the negatives above, it's unclear to me what growth opportunities will be on offer that wouldn't have otherwise been on offer, except perhaps for those making PPE and other pandemic essentials, which of course comes with an opportunity cost.
mondeoman said:
Nickgnome said:
Sanders123 said:
Ntv said:
Great to see the demos in London yesterday.
Saw the police being chased out of Hyde Park and getting a bit of a doing without all their protective gear on.
I sense a mere warm up for the summer, when the boys and girls in blue are going to have a fun time!
I also think the BBC's diligent efforts to not cover / cover as little as credibly possible such opposition is counter-productive.
Being labelled a "conspiracist" / "covid-denier" / "covidiot" because you want to see friends and family, enjoy the same quality of life as 2019, and care about mass unemployment says everything about the name-callers.
The police have been just as bad as the government and the MSM throughout. They deserve everything they get.Saw the police being chased out of Hyde Park and getting a bit of a doing without all their protective gear on.
I sense a mere warm up for the summer, when the boys and girls in blue are going to have a fun time!
I also think the BBC's diligent efforts to not cover / cover as little as credibly possible such opposition is counter-productive.
Being labelled a "conspiracist" / "covid-denier" / "covidiot" because you want to see friends and family, enjoy the same quality of life as 2019, and care about mass unemployment says everything about the name-callers.
They deserve our support and respect. Nothing more nothing less.
August 11 on steroids
As Tonker has been relaying to us on this thread:
4,902 lives were lost to suicide in England in 2020.
This is down from 2019, but ONS say this isn’t due to a reduction in suicides, it’s just that coroners haven’t concluded on post-mortems because of the pandemic.
https://twitter.com/inzyrashid/status/138660235896...
4,902 lives were lost to suicide in England in 2020.
This is down from 2019, but ONS say this isn’t due to a reduction in suicides, it’s just that coroners haven’t concluded on post-mortems because of the pandemic.
https://twitter.com/inzyrashid/status/138660235896...
poo at Paul's said:
markyb_lcy said:
Obsolete Driver said:
markyb_lcy said:
That’s quite the pivot from “historical vaccines are safe so this one must be” and “vaccines can’t possibly be more dangerous than the virus they seek to vaccinate against”, to “paracetamol can kill”.
Sorry, are you saying the vaccination is more dangerous than the virus?
Knock off 90% of the risk for anyone who has recovered from infection and actually you have the risk of a viral vector clot considerably greater than risk of infection for a heck of a lot of people on top of anyone under 30.
Tyre Smoke said:
Anyone seen today's figures?
They must be good because they are nowhere on BBC or Sky. Or at least not easily found.
6 today. It's absolute madness that the timetable cannot be accelerated.They must be good because they are nowhere on BBC or Sky. Or at least not easily found.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Six deaths yesterday, six, against a backdrop of 300-400 from heart disease, 300-400 from cancer, 300-400 from Alzheimers and a few hundred more to bring us up to the daily average of 1,500.
There is only one possible question here. Why are there any restrictions on our lives whatsover?
Edited to add that six deaths is just over half the number that kill themselves every single day of the year.
There is only one possible question here. Why are there any restrictions on our lives whatsover?
Edited to add that six deaths is just over half the number that kill themselves every single day of the year.
Edited by SCEtoAUX on Monday 26th April 17:39
SCEtoAUX said:
Six deaths yesterday, six, against a backdrop of 300-400 from heart disease, 300-400 from cancer, 300-400 from Alzheimers and a few hundred more to bring us up to the daily average of 1,500.
There is only one possible question here. Why are there any restrictions on our lives whatsover?
It was never much to do with any disease. There is only one possible question here. Why are there any restrictions on our lives whatsover?
Nickgnome said:
Sanders123 said:
Ntv said:
Great to see the demos in London yesterday.
Saw the police being chased out of Hyde Park and getting a bit of a doing without all their protective gear on.
I sense a mere warm up for the summer, when the boys and girls in blue are going to have a fun time!
I also think the BBC's diligent efforts to not cover / cover as little as credibly possible such opposition is counter-productive.
Being labelled a "conspiracist" / "covid-denier" / "covidiot" because you want to see friends and family, enjoy the same quality of life as 2019, and care about mass unemployment says everything about the name-callers.
The police have been just as bad as the government and the MSM throughout. They deserve everything they get.Saw the police being chased out of Hyde Park and getting a bit of a doing without all their protective gear on.
I sense a mere warm up for the summer, when the boys and girls in blue are going to have a fun time!
I also think the BBC's diligent efforts to not cover / cover as little as credibly possible such opposition is counter-productive.
Being labelled a "conspiracist" / "covid-denier" / "covidiot" because you want to see friends and family, enjoy the same quality of life as 2019, and care about mass unemployment says everything about the name-callers.
They deserve our support and respect. Nothing more nothing less.
isaldiri said:
Not exactly very difficult is it?
Knock off 90% of the risk for anyone who has recovered from infection and actually you have the risk of a viral vector clot considerably greater than risk of infection for a heck of a lot of people on top of anyone under 30.
Cherry picking. Full page here: https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/news/communic...Knock off 90% of the risk for anyone who has recovered from infection and actually you have the risk of a viral vector clot considerably greater than risk of infection for a heck of a lot of people on top of anyone under 30.
Am I also correct in thinking that we have borrowed this huge amount of money at a time of extremely low interest rates.
All we need is interest rates to rise and the manure hits the spreader. Or as bonds mature the replacement borrowing is more expensive.
In the news this morning was the fact that that there is significant increases in commodity costs coming down the track. I've already been warned by my suppliers that chemicals, dyes, and even cardboard is going to increase in price, which means my prices will be going up and I will have to pass these increases onto my customers. As will every other industry. Container prices have almost trebled in some instances
In short, although inflation is great at reducing the debt burden when in normal times, inflation is a huge problem when it pushes up interest rates and you are in hock up to your eyeballs. Like the UK is now.
Add in an inflationary spiral caused by the "coiled spring" of demand and excess cash in peoples pockets, then add in increased costs because of Green Issues ( eg from 1st June I'll have to pay £8 to drive into Brum centre) and we could have the perfect storm.
All we need is interest rates to rise and the manure hits the spreader. Or as bonds mature the replacement borrowing is more expensive.
In the news this morning was the fact that that there is significant increases in commodity costs coming down the track. I've already been warned by my suppliers that chemicals, dyes, and even cardboard is going to increase in price, which means my prices will be going up and I will have to pass these increases onto my customers. As will every other industry. Container prices have almost trebled in some instances
In short, although inflation is great at reducing the debt burden when in normal times, inflation is a huge problem when it pushes up interest rates and you are in hock up to your eyeballs. Like the UK is now.
Add in an inflationary spiral caused by the "coiled spring" of demand and excess cash in peoples pockets, then add in increased costs because of Green Issues ( eg from 1st June I'll have to pay £8 to drive into Brum centre) and we could have the perfect storm.
Edited by Tony427 on Monday 26th April 17:53
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