How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[z4RRSchris]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

its sentiment.

i see stagnation also, but those who need more space have to move and will have to take a reduction, or rent it out and use the cash to rent elsewhere.

the below is a prime example and a house i would buy if they were more realistic with the price.

2 Bed was on at £1.1m, now have another agent and reduced to £950k. they paid 850k in 2014.

Date Sold Sold Price Price Difference
06 Jun 2014 £850,000 +42%
05 Jul 2007 £595,000

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

house on the same street couldn't sell and so are now renting it out,

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/proper...

they need the space obviously, two kids living in that room!

[z4RRSchris]

princeperch said:

I presume Chris's flat also has a painful service charge and an increasingly crap lease?

share of freehold, 999 year lease, no ground rent and we self manage so no service charge.

its in a nice historic building in spitalfields.

[princeperch]

that's a rarity then and I would think would command a premium..

[princeperch]

talk about trough to peak and smashing it out of the park:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatc...

[gibbon]

princeperch said:

talk about trough to peak and smashing it out of the park:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatc...

That house was formally a shop, and has had a huge amount of work done to it, a lot spent, he also had a hard time selling it, was done by a developer. Still, im sure a handsome profit was made.

It was up for around £1.5-1.6 i think, at £1,3m its cheap £/sq ft for the area, but its far from the best stock of house for the area.

[p1stonhead]

princeperch said:

talk about trough to peak and smashing it out of the park:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatc...

Didnt even bother weeding the 5m2 patio.

[z4RRSchris]

who is paying £1.3m to live in Mile End?

i would love to know that buyer demographic, fair enough its close to work if you work in the city or the wharf, but the schools are st and you have to live in the scum of tower hamlets.

[hyphen]

p1stonhead said:

princeperch said:

talk about trough to peak and smashing it out of the park:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatc...

Didnt even bother weeding the 5m2 patio.

I would have been more bothered about the 6 or so overlooking windows...

[gibbon]

z4RRSchris said:

who is paying £1.3m to live in Mile End?

i would love to know that buyer demographic, fair enough its close to work if you work in the city or the wharf, but the schools are st and you have to live in the scum of tower hamlets.

Well, someone has just paid circa £4m.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

I guess you would be surprised then, exactly the kind of people you would expect to pay 7 figures for houses, mixed in with a few who have lived there a long time.

[p1stonhead]

gibbon said:

z4RRSchris said:

who is paying £1.3m to live in Mile End?

i would love to know that buyer demographic, fair enough its close to work if you work in the city or the wharf, but the schools are st and you have to live in the scum of tower hamlets.

Well, someone has just paid circa £4m.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

I guess you would be surprised then, exactly the kind of people you would expect to pay 7 figures for houses, mixed in with a few who have lived there a long time.

Slightly different property though!

[gibbon]

p1stonhead said:

Slightly different property though!

Of course, but the question was who would live in mile end for £1.3m. The answer is plenty of people, and in fact some with far more to spend, that house is just down the street from the one linked.

[princeperch]

I think they may have to end up rethinking the sdlt changes at the top end of the market to get things moving again.

Gibbon you must have got a jolly good shafting when you purchased your new gaff on the stamp given you have a btl?

[gibbon]

princeperch said:

I think they may have to end up rethinking the sdlt changes at the top end of the market to get things moving again.

Gibbon you must have got a jolly good shafting when you purchased your new gaff on the stamp given you have a btl?

I did. However nothing to do with BTL, as i was selling my primary home and buying another, theres no surcharge to pay.

I agree SDLT need adjusting, but i dont see anything meaningful happening to it for some time, and when it does, likely house prices will just absorb the extra cash in the system.

[Croutons]

Reducing top end SLDT is a tax cut for millionaires, there are no votes in that (economic logic for a particular group of people who feeld hard donw by despite sitting on massive, unearned capital gains, need not apply).

Given it was apparently young ones who voted Red; if anything Hapless Hammond will reduce/ remove SLDT for them (up to a limit) next week. He can only afford that by keeping the bands as they are.

Anything else is wishful thinking. It still brings in a shedload of money, however unpopular the middle classes might think it is.

[Francois de La Rochefoucauld]

Croutons said:

Reducing top end SLDT is a tax cut for millionaires, there are no votes in that (economic logic for a particular group of people who feeld hard donw by despite sitting on massive, unearned capital gains, need not apply).

Given it was apparently young ones who voted Red; if anything Hapless Hammond will reduce/ remove SLDT for them (up to a limit) next week. He can only afford that by keeping the bands as they are.

Anything else is wishful thinking. It still brings in a shedload of money, however unpopular the middle classes might think it is.

I agree with all of that but it will eventually bring some markets in London and SE to a standstill. There are people who've bought in the last few years that I'm sure would prefer CGT to be levied on any gain rather than the current SDLT on the whole of the purchase.

A £1.5m house today costs you £93k in stamp. Bung in fees, moving costs and some minor decoration and you well over a £100k costs. That house will need to see you at least a 10% increase before you can think about moving, never mind that the would be purchaser is thinking exactly the same thing.

Anyway, an niche problem as I said, but a problem non the less.

[gibbon]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Well, i dont have children (yet), so im not overly up to date on these things, but many of my well to do neighbours who live in this area do. Within that house for sale clicking on the primary schools there are 10, 7 rated as 'good' by Ofsted, 3 'outsitanding', which I believe is the best ranking. If i go to secondary there are 5 good and 3 outstanding.

As i say, maybe im missing some finer details on this, but im not sure the sweeping statement of 'awful' is fair.

As for stabby, i dont believe its any more or less stabby than almost any other area of central London.

[Graemsay]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

There's been a similar boom and slowdown in Sydney, and Melbourne looks to be following. Property prices have roughly doubled in the last six or seven years, but there have been recent drops. I'm not sure if it's as deep a drop as London, though.

The drivers here have been high rates of immigration, foreign money coming in (mainly from China), and Baby Boomer investors. The last two have been curtailed: The Chinese government has clamped down on capital outflows; and the APRA (the Australian equivalent of the FSA) placed restrictions on mortgages for buy to let.

I think that the downturn here in Australia can be explained by the above, but I'm wondering if there's something else driving the market. The Fed is starting to tighten, and perhaps it's starting to affect flows of money.

[Croutons]

Francois de La Rochefoucauld said:

Croutons said:

Reducing top end SLDT is a tax cut for millionaires, there are no votes in that (economic logic for a particular group of people who feeld hard donw by despite sitting on massive, unearned capital gains, need not apply).

Given it was apparently young ones who voted Red; if anything Hapless Hammond will reduce/ remove SLDT for them (up to a limit) next week. He can only afford that by keeping the bands as they are.

Anything else is wishful thinking. It still brings in a shedload of money, however unpopular the middle classes might think it is.

I agree with all of that but it will eventually bring some markets in London and SE to a standstill. There are people who've bought in the last few years that I'm sure would prefer CGT to be levied on any gain rather than the current SDLT on the whole of the purchase.

A £1.5m house today costs you £93k in stamp. Bung in fees, moving costs and some minor decoration and you well over a £100k costs. That house will need to see you at least a 10% increase before you can think about moving, never mind that the would be purchaser is thinking exactly the same thing.

Anyway, an niche problem as I said, but a problem non the less.

Diddums for the poor little millionaires.

As Tonker is ably demonstrating, those who ask silly money aren't wanting to sell. Death, divorce, downsizing and disappearing post-Brexit [vote] mean the market will always move as there are always people who will want to. Sure, perhaps not at the price level some people might like, but it never stops.

Your username amuses me. When I bought in France at 800k euros, I paid 82k euros in fees (I think). The house is worth.... maybe 800k euros. C'est la vie.

[GreatGranny]

Just to bring this thread away from London for 1 post, just had our house valued in Lincolnshire.

Bought in 2010 for £207,500

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatc...

Maybe spent the best part of £40k on it in the last 7 years.

Valued today at £280k, £290k on a good day.

We are looking to downsize early next year and maybe buying holiday property so wanted to know realistically what we could afford.

Back to down saaaaf!

[kingston12]

GreatGranny said:

Just to bring this thread away from London for 1 post, just had our house valued in Lincolnshire.

Bought in 2010 for £207,500

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatc...

Maybe spent the best part of £40k on it in the last 7 years.

Valued today at £280k, £290k on a good day.

We are looking to downsize early next year and maybe buying holiday property so wanted to know realistically what we could afford.

Back to down saaaaf!

It's just a shame the rest of the country couldn't have done the same. £250k to £290k in seven years is probably not that far away from general inflation as opposed to the speculative mess that a lot of other areas have got themselves into.