How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)
Discussion
Murph7355 said:
stongle said:
London424 said:
What's that saying a few remainers are fond of, "the mask slips"....Tbh, it wasn't much of a disguise. 28hours of negotiations and their whole budget discussion imploded. About the only thing they can agree on, is the UK is a threat.
Merkel pulled a classic "I've heard enough of red lines today". Not sure if she was speaking about the 16 Southern and Eastern states or the EC in general.
Evidently they need to find 75bn to replace us, not sure how they got to that number - given the way negotiations are going I'd pay it and bin them off now with the 39bn and change before a new redline / lever / racket crops up.
The member state net contributors say they don't want to pick any more up...so the GV answer is OK we'll tax your electorate instead. That will end REALLY well
Morons. And GV is the chief one.
Ref 75bn, don't they budget for 7yr cycles? So maybe that's for the full 7yrs? Or maybe it's some conflation of our gross, plus extra spending plans (armies aren't cheap etc).
Sway said:
I've said it before, there won't be another country choosing to leave..
If I may buddy, I'd suggest it won't be a choice.Its much more likely that an economic or political change force an exit rather than anyone choosing as the UK has done.
I see 2 outcomes. The EU reinvents itself, or it has exits. A rational reinvention, may well see the UK re-engage ala Norway. A federal reinvention validates 2016. UK wins either way.
Its amusing that the EU budget discussions have highlighted many of the Southern and Eastern states arguing for increased spendies, in and for exactly the same reasons as Boris / Cummings "level-up"....
This similarity exposes NOT the UKs difference to Europe, but how politicians (and their sycophants) f
k st up. Its coming down to the collie green linguinis.stongle said:
Sway said:
I've said it before, there won't be another country choosing to leave..
If I may buddy, I'd suggest it won't be a choice.Its much more likely that an economic or political change force an exit rather than anyone choosing as the UK has done.
I see 2 outcomes. The EU reinvents itself, or it has exits. A rational reinvention, may well see the UK re-engage ala Norway. A federal reinvention validates 2016. UK wins either way.
Its amusing that the EU budget discussions have highlighted many of the Southern and Eastern states arguing for increased spendies, in and for exactly the same reasons as Boris / Cummings "level-up"....
This similarity exposes NOT the UKs difference to Europe, but how politicians (and their sycophants) f
k st up. Its coming down to the collie green linguinis.I don't see the EU allowing another exit. Whether it be a net taker of giver, one more would utterly f
k up the whole construct. And we know that is not allowed.For the reasons Sway notes, I don't see any member state wanting to do this politically, no matter what their electorates might think. If Le Pen ever got into power in France it might happen...but I don't think that will ever come to pass and I think even she would bottle it. The butt hurt for them all would be too much to bear (thank god we never joined the Euro!).
Economically they'd rather get in a death spiral than break it.
They really need to reinvent. But the will simply isn't there at present, and shows no signs of ever being. It's a proper mess and nothing looks like it will change that right now. The next year or two might materialise something I guess - if we beat projections etc. But I doubt even that will get through the thick skulls of people like GV.
barryrs said:
I have no issue with CB’s business.
It’s the juxtaposition of his postings with his choice of business that sticks out.
His holier than thou, the poor must be protected posting around Brexit, whilst charging those very same people 1400% apr seems at odds.
So not the economic migrant that emigrated to the UK referring to his "fellow brits" then?It’s the juxtaposition of his postings with his choice of business that sticks out.
His holier than thou, the poor must be protected posting around Brexit, whilst charging those very same people 1400% apr seems at odds.
Stay in Bed Instead said:
Sure are some nasty people on this thread these days.
CB is an interesting case though. He’s pretty much nailed his contempt for the country’s direction to his mast. He has repeatedly stated that he’s well out of it. He’s, as per his most recent incendiary effort, stated that he hopes the EU ‘says sod off’ primarily because he wants to see the exit process to fall on its RSe.Personally I think differently but fair does. He doesn’t. But what grinds the gears is that CB at multiple times (and I’m not going to post them because that is apparently bad form) stated that the U.K. is practically a s
thole (he did say that iirc about the north), and as far as he is concerned he doesn’t rate it what so ever.I don’t really hold for calling out trolls but I have no idea why CB continues to post given his declared distance from the situation, his contempt for the U.K., his obvious happiness in his current situation unless he is the most magnificent troll NPE has witnessed. Why I’m pretty sure he is.
Nick Gnome, Deepend and yourself included (among many others) may seriously disagree with the debate and Brexit but CB is the one who continually reiterated his contempt for the U.K. and his lack of interest.
While posting over and over.
He’s a troll. He may not realise he is but he exhibits all the characteristics. Thus the contempt and bad vibes around him.
Ridgemont said:
CB is an interesting case though. He’s pretty much nailed his contempt for the country’s direction to his mast. He has repeatedly stated that he’s well out of it. He’s, as per his most recent incendiary effort, stated that he hopes the EU ‘says sod off’ primarily because he wants to see the exit process to fall on its RSe.
Personally I think differently but fair does. He doesn’t. But what grinds the gears is that CB at multiple times (and I’m not going to post them because that is apparently bad form) stated that the U.K. is practically a sthole (he did say that iirc about the north), and as far as he is concerned he doesn’t rate it what so ever.
I don’t really hold for calling out trolls but I have no idea why CB continues to post given his declared distance from the situation, his contempt for the U.K., his obvious happiness in his current situation unless he is the most magnificent troll NPE has witnessed. Why I’m pretty sure he is.
Nick Gnome, Deepend and yourself included (among many others) may seriously disagree with the debate and Brexit but CB is the one who continually reiterated his contempt for the U.K. and his lack of interest.
While posting over and over.
He’s a troll. He may not realise he is but he exhibits all the characteristics. Thus the contempt and bad vibes around him.
People are entitled to an opinion, there is no obligation to praise the UK (or EU), and of course others can challenge those opinions.Personally I think differently but fair does. He doesn’t. But what grinds the gears is that CB at multiple times (and I’m not going to post them because that is apparently bad form) stated that the U.K. is practically a s
thole (he did say that iirc about the north), and as far as he is concerned he doesn’t rate it what so ever.I don’t really hold for calling out trolls but I have no idea why CB continues to post given his declared distance from the situation, his contempt for the U.K., his obvious happiness in his current situation unless he is the most magnificent troll NPE has witnessed. Why I’m pretty sure he is.
Nick Gnome, Deepend and yourself included (among many others) may seriously disagree with the debate and Brexit but CB is the one who continually reiterated his contempt for the U.K. and his lack of interest.
While posting over and over.
He’s a troll. He may not realise he is but he exhibits all the characteristics. Thus the contempt and bad vibes around him.
What I find distasteful is the personal attacks, bordering on racism, that he receives from some posters. It is unjustified and against PH rules.
Stay in Bed Instead said:
Sure are some nasty people on this thread these days.
Indeed.CB clearly enjoyed success and should be lauded as a good example of the kind of entrepreneur the UK needs - exactly the sort of immigrant some touting points systems and “control” would want. He is of course a fair barometer of how Brexit Britain is viewed by people like him - I completely understand his view. The pile on shows exactly the kind of culture that some brexit fans want to spread across the UK - they are hopefully rare but are nasty and unpleasant in the same way as that dreadful QT women this week. And yet they howl like wolves if anyone suggests there has been a rise in unpleasantness since 2016.
PS - also funny to see the triumphant dreams of the “EU suffering” scenarios above (no links required, lol), and bleating about whether the EU plan a tax. Why do they still care, we’ve left as they wanted. Proof if it were needed that the moaning will never stop - this is ironically the true malaise in this country, instead of getting off their RSes and making their own lives better. Like CB did!
Keep the posts coming CB, they are a welcome tonic of common sense and wider perspective in this bleak echo chamber. They need to hear what you think of their pointless crusade, where not one can come up with a tangible benefit.
Sway said:
DeepEnd said:
Sway said:
Stay in Bed Instead said:
Sway said:
Indeed Pan.
The difficulty comes when the EU backs itself into a corner with public absolute demands which then not only requires strong negotiations to overcome to a mutually agreeable solution, but also the EU institutions figuring out how they're going to spin it to save face (such as the shift in their long held and 'final' WA position)
Or the UK does.The difficulty comes when the EU backs itself into a corner with public absolute demands which then not only requires strong negotiations to overcome to a mutually agreeable solution, but also the EU institutions figuring out how they're going to spin it to save face (such as the shift in their long held and 'final' WA position)
UK 100% right then?
zero understanding of compromise
ironic given the greyness applied to Sabinsky
We have permitted lots of room for compromise. There is a single red line - after 31st December, the EU will not control our laws or regs.
I'm disappointed you're still beating your wife.
And that despite being anti-autism, you continue to desire binary thinking.
Dynamic alignment where we have control but agree to align to enable freer trade is a possible option whether it makes you froth at the prospect of even considering having the same rules as the EU even voluntarily.
This is where many brexiters start to look a bit vacant when - while insisting we must be able to diverge cannot come up with a single example, and at best say “someone else says its a good idea so there”. A call to authority, surely not!
Estimates are
- good EU trade alignment - worth 3-4% GDP
- benefits of non-alignment from global trade deals - 0.2% GDP
The case for alignment is clear.
Just where the juddering foxtrot is the counter argument?
PS stop posting accusatory lines about wife beating as it’s unpleasant and some might not realise you think that’s a “joke”. Quite why you find this and depression a matter for levity are issues for you to deal with and you really should. If you don’t want pulling up for defending Sabinksy, it’s simple, don’t come on here and publically defend him with risible safe space categories. His comments - especially his misogynistic ones - should tell anyone enough.
DeepEnd said:
The chosen red line is rather binary given our place in a complex global economy where compromise is everywhere.
Dynamic alignment where we have control but agree to align to enable freer trade is a possible option whether it makes you froth at the prospect of even considering having the same rules as the EU even voluntarily.
This is where many brexiters start to look a bit vacant when - while insisting we must be able to diverge cannot come up with a single example, and at best say “someone else says its a good idea so there”. A call to authority, surely not!
Estimates are
- good EU trade alignment - worth 3-4% GDP
- benefits of non-alignment from global trade deals - 0.2% GDP
The case for alignment is clear.
Just where the juddering foxtrot is the counter argument?
PS stop posting accusatory lines about wife beating as it’s unpleasant and some might not realise you think that’s a “joke”. Quite why you find this and depression a matter for levity are issues for you to deal with and you really should. If you don’t want pulling up for defending Sabinksy, it’s simple, don’t come on here and publically defend him with risible safe space categories. His comments - especially his misogynistic ones - should tell anyone enough.
EU trade 40% no current tariffs = 3-4% GDPDynamic alignment where we have control but agree to align to enable freer trade is a possible option whether it makes you froth at the prospect of even considering having the same rules as the EU even voluntarily.
This is where many brexiters start to look a bit vacant when - while insisting we must be able to diverge cannot come up with a single example, and at best say “someone else says its a good idea so there”. A call to authority, surely not!
Estimates are
- good EU trade alignment - worth 3-4% GDP
- benefits of non-alignment from global trade deals - 0.2% GDP
The case for alignment is clear.
Just where the juddering foxtrot is the counter argument?
PS stop posting accusatory lines about wife beating as it’s unpleasant and some might not realise you think that’s a “joke”. Quite why you find this and depression a matter for levity are issues for you to deal with and you really should. If you don’t want pulling up for defending Sabinksy, it’s simple, don’t come on here and publically defend him with risible safe space categories. His comments - especially his misogynistic ones - should tell anyone enough.
ROW trade 60% current tariffs = 0.2% GDP....
I guess it makes sense to you...
Vanden Saab said:
EU trade 40% no current tariffs = 3-4% GDP
ROW trade 60% current tariffs = 0.2% GDP....
I guess it makes sense to you...
They are the official govt figures.ROW trade 60% current tariffs = 0.2% GDP....
I guess it makes sense to you...
I know you can’t get your head around them, that is part of the problem.
Feel free to post alternative estimates and sources.
Which tariffs are you hoping to change for the ROW, and what is the benefit?
DeepEnd said:
Vanden Saab said:
EU trade 40% no current tariffs = 3-4% GDP
ROW trade 60% current tariffs = 0.2% GDP....
I guess it makes sense to you...
They are the official govt figures.ROW trade 60% current tariffs = 0.2% GDP....
I guess it makes sense to you...
I know you can’t get your head around them, that is part of the problem.
Feel free to post alternative estimates and sources.
Which tariffs are you hoping to change for the ROW, and what is the benefit?
And you accuse me of not being able to get my head around the figures. No tariffs is your whole reason not to leave the EU....
DeepEnd said:
Stay in Bed Instead said:
Sure are some nasty people on this thread these days.
Indeed.CB clearly enjoyed success and should be lauded as a good example of the kind of entrepreneur the UK needs - exactly the sort of immigrant some touting points systems and “control” would want. He is of course a fair barometer of how Brexit Britain is viewed by people like him - I completely understand his view. The pile on shows exactly the kind of culture that some brexit fans want to spread across the UK - they are hopefully rare but are nasty and unpleasant in the same way as that dreadful QT women this week. And yet they howl like wolves if anyone suggests there has been a rise in unpleasantness since 2016.
PS - also funny to see the triumphant dreams of the “EU suffering” scenarios above (no links required, lol), and bleating about whether the EU plan a tax. Why do they still care, we’ve left as they wanted. Proof if it were needed that the moaning will never stop - this is ironically the true malaise in this country, instead of getting off their RSes and making their own lives better. Like CB did!
Keep the posts coming CB, they are a welcome tonic of common sense and wider perspective in this bleak echo chamber. They need to hear what you think of their pointless crusade, where not one can come up with a tangible benefit.
CB is, as they say, a digital and economic nomad. Such a thing removes you from being plugged in to the social fabric and discourse of a particular nation. I get that - I’ve spent the last decade being the same. When I “came back” to the UK a cpl of years ago I thought the place had gone insane. Bat st mental! I was sure I didn’t recognise the place - because I had been removed from the national discourse, the ebb and flow of daily life and society in the U.K. I was also removed from all of that in the countries I was living and working.
It gives you a very different sense of perspective and context. Especially your relationship to said country. I even get the contempt - I held much of that contempt for aspect of Switzerland when I was there. I held elements of it whilst in Germany. I love Italy and France but my God living there requires daily acts of pleading with higher deities as to wtf someone thinks they are up to?!!
It’s a weird thing being that nomad and being outside the norms of society. It changes your behaviour and thoughts.
t mental! I was sure I didn’t recognise the place - because I had been removed from the national discourse, the ebb and flow of daily life and society in the U.K. I was also removed from all of that in the countries I was living and working.It gives you a very different sense of perspective and context. Especially your relationship to said country. I even get the contempt - I held much of that contempt for aspect of Switzerland when I was there. I held elements of it whilst in Germany. I love Italy and France but my God living there requires daily acts of pleading with higher deities as to wtf someone thinks they are up to?!!
It’s a weird thing being that nomad and being outside the norms of society. It changes your behaviour and thoughts.
Murph7355 said:
I'm really not sure, and err towards Sway on this one.
I don't see the EU allowing another exit. Whether it be a net taker of giver, one more would utterly fk up the whole construct. And we know that is not allowed.
For the reasons Sway notes, I don't see any member state wanting to do this politically, no matter what their electorates might think. If Le Pen ever got into power in France it might happen...but I don't think that will ever come to pass and I think even she would bottle it. The butt hurt for them all would be too much to bear (thank god we never joined the Euro!).
Economically they'd rather get in a death spiral than break it.
They really need to reinvent. But the will simply isn't there at present, and shows no signs of ever being. It's a proper mess and nothing looks like it will change that right now. The next year or two might materialise something I guess - if we beat projections etc. But I doubt even that will get through the thick skulls of people like GV.
If things continue as they are, I'd agree. There simply isn't the will or urgency to force change.I don't see the EU allowing another exit. Whether it be a net taker of giver, one more would utterly f
k up the whole construct. And we know that is not allowed.For the reasons Sway notes, I don't see any member state wanting to do this politically, no matter what their electorates might think. If Le Pen ever got into power in France it might happen...but I don't think that will ever come to pass and I think even she would bottle it. The butt hurt for them all would be too much to bear (thank god we never joined the Euro!).
Economically they'd rather get in a death spiral than break it.
They really need to reinvent. But the will simply isn't there at present, and shows no signs of ever being. It's a proper mess and nothing looks like it will change that right now. The next year or two might materialise something I guess - if we beat projections etc. But I doubt even that will get through the thick skulls of people like GV.
Unfortunately, I dont think they can continue to dodge bullets. At some point one of the risk factors will give, and they are going to have to do something pretty spectacular. More Federal would be my guess is the EC play, but that may only work right now. Merkel has no succession plan in place, and everything Federal will hinge around that. Its too large an unknown.
The low inflation, growth and negative yield problem you can kick down the road a bit; but at some point it bites you in the ass. If you are dealing with a recession the risks are amplified
This is exactly what the markets have been pricing in thus year. It's not $ strength, its EURO weakening. These risk factors are seen by pretty much everyone, bar a few remainers here insistent on nonsense projections long since mitigated. The weakening of the EU is for all to see (and be commented on - in public by experts). It validates divergence as a required risk mitigator. It's a huge post BREXIT win, we are attracting EU finance firms, the more unrealistic the negotiations become, the better our regulatory breakout.
Its humorous that only Remain see this as a downside. Not understanding the difference between a risk and a projection is a mistake.
Cluck, cluck, clucking.....
Brooking10 said:
Particularly strong work on the wife reference. With a bit of luck the mods will apply even handed attention.
Is that the type of even handed attention where Sway should be punished for replicating the behaviour of others to illustrate it's ridiculousness, yet the originator of that behaviour is free to continue smearing st up the walls? Of course it is
DeepEnd said:
Sway said:
DeepEnd said:
Sway said:
Stay in Bed Instead said:
Sway said:
Indeed Pan.
The difficulty comes when the EU backs itself into a corner with public absolute demands which then not only requires strong negotiations to overcome to a mutually agreeable solution, but also the EU institutions figuring out how they're going to spin it to save face (such as the shift in their long held and 'final' WA position)
Or the UK does.The difficulty comes when the EU backs itself into a corner with public absolute demands which then not only requires strong negotiations to overcome to a mutually agreeable solution, but also the EU institutions figuring out how they're going to spin it to save face (such as the shift in their long held and 'final' WA position)
UK 100% right then?
zero understanding of compromise
ironic given the greyness applied to Sabinsky
We have permitted lots of room for compromise. There is a single red line - after 31st December, the EU will not control our laws or regs.
I'm disappointed you're still beating your wife.
And that despite being anti-autism, you continue to desire binary thinking.
Dynamic alignment where we have control but agree to align to enable freer trade is a possible option whether it makes you froth at the prospect of even considering having the same rules as the EU even voluntarily.
This is where many brexiters start to look a bit vacant when - while insisting we must be able to diverge cannot come up with a single example, and at best say “someone else says its a good idea so there”. A call to authority, surely not!
Estimates are
- good EU trade alignment - worth 3-4% GDP
- benefits of non-alignment from global trade deals - 0.2% GDP
The case for alignment is clear.
Just where the juddering foxtrot is the counter argument?
PS stop posting accusatory lines about wife beating as it’s unpleasant and some might not realise you think that’s a “joke”. Quite why you find this and depression a matter for levity are issues for you to deal with and you really should. If you don’t want pulling up for defending Sabinksy, it’s simple, don’t come on here and publically defend him with risible safe space categories. His comments - especially his misogynistic ones - should tell anyone enough.
You don't like having the "wife beating" comment, but you use exactly the same line of argument to claim I have defended Sabisky... Dry your eyes petal, or stop using such bulls
t forms of accusatory debate if you don't like it used on you.Claiming I used depression as a joke is another example of why I'll keep using it... Exactly how is referring to a YouGov poll where remain voters self identified as being in that state in the change curve a problem?
Again, you try to "dance on the head of a pin" (another of your favourite phrases when you try to imply another poster is racist or mysogynist) regarding regs - name a nation on earth that has willingly handed over control of internal market regs, laws and taxation to another external body/nation with zero voting rights.
Cause that's what the EU is demanding - so stop trying to twist your white flag raising appeasement for a predicted couple of percent more growth in fifteen years as anything normal or acceptable.
The UK's sole stated 'Red line' is entirely reasonable - as evidenced by not a single nation in history not having it.
Again, you fail to understand the point or the principle. People aren't arguing against choosing to align where appropriate in terms of outcomes (as is the norm, especially in the globally determined regulatory world) but that isn't what the EU is demanding in return for a typical and normal FTA - as you well know, whilst you defend the indefensible - the EU moving to Empire building via the subjugation of other nations, validated as such by their own demands.
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