Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 5)
Discussion
Vipers said:
More realistic than most of the discussions in the UK media. turbobloke said:
Better viewing of late, though Sky is generally dire.
Kay Burley has just been put back in her box by the Mayor of London (which feat takes some naff journalism) and an emergency medicine doc (President of Royal College of Emergency Medicine) based at St Thomas' Hospital.
The latter is to be expected, she was dealing with a formidable and highly talented woman out of Burley's reach i.e. far and away above potted plant in a potty level.
I enjoyed watching thatKay Burley has just been put back in her box by the Mayor of London (which feat takes some naff journalism) and an emergency medicine doc (President of Royal College of Emergency Medicine) based at St Thomas' Hospital.
The latter is to be expected, she was dealing with a formidable and highly talented woman out of Burley's reach i.e. far and away above potted plant in a potty level.
to paraphrase....
KB "But are shortages of ambulances meaning that people are not getting to A & E. We have anecdotal evidence of people waiting an hour for an ambulance"
Interviewee: "That doesn't mean you don't get to A&E"
Alucidnation said:
Linda Lusardi has had it, and said she had symptoms of CV plus vomiting & the squits, so it appears she also had Norovirus at the same time but blaming it fully on CV.
Unless they are also symptoms of CV?
When the original WHO symptom guidance came out, they were listed as symptoms in very rare occurances (likes a couple of %)Unless they are also symptoms of CV?
Anyway, glad she's better
EddieSteadyGo said:
El stovey said:
Exactly, the U.K. messed around with herd immunity delaying more strict social distancing rules. Hopefully it will work but it’s not what other countries did.
Worth being clear, whether you delay a lockdown or implement it more quickly, you are not changing the proportion of people in the long term who are going to be infected.All you change is the size of any initial surge of cases.
Or do you mean something else ?
pghstochaj said:
Not really, that was also their mistake. Two wrongs do not make a right. It just changes the root cause of the mistake. It was their assumption that led to the herd immunity approach to begin with. The data was already available.
As I posted before:
I do think they were going for it (in a slow way) until they corrected the death rate assumption in the model. From that Thursday to Tuesday, a lot of damage was caused.
China data was already available, it was the italy data that turned the tide?As I posted before:
I do think they were going for it (in a slow way) until they corrected the death rate assumption in the model. From that Thursday to Tuesday, a lot of damage was caused.
Alucidnation said:
Linda Lusardi has had it, and said she had symptoms of CV plus vomiting & the squits, so it appears she also had Norovirus at the same time but blaming it fully on CV.
Unless they are also symptoms of CV?
it infects the intestines along with Lungs,heart and liver so possible.Unless they are also symptoms of CV?
Thesprucegoose said:
98elise said:
Herd immunity is the goal regardless of the strategy, be that by infection and recovery or vaccination.
It would be if we get immune to it once we had it, which is very unclear, so a strategy based on it, is not a very good one.Thesprucegoose said:
98elise said:
Herd immunity is the goal regardless of the strategy, be that by infection and recovery or vaccination.
It would be if we get immune to it once we had it, which is very unclear, so a strategy based on it, is not a very good one.
ked.David A said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
El stovey said:
Exactly, the U.K. messed around with herd immunity delaying more strict social distancing rules. Hopefully it will work but it’s not what other countries did.
Worth being clear, whether you delay a lockdown or implement it more quickly, you are not changing the proportion of people in the long term who are going to be infected.All you change is the size of any initial surge of cases.
Or do you mean something else ?
The lockdown is about buying time to build up the healthcare and testing capacity.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Thesprucegoose said:
98elise said:
Herd immunity is the goal regardless of the strategy, be that by infection and recovery or vaccination.
It would be if we get immune to it once we had it, which is very unclear, so a strategy based on it, is not a very good one.EddieSteadyGo said:
Thesprucegoose said:
98elise said:
Herd immunity is the goal regardless of the strategy, be that by infection and recovery or vaccination.
It would be if we get immune to it once we had it, which is very unclear, so a strategy based on it, is not a very good one.[There have been cases of 're-infection' in China, but that was the place that used testing kits that were 30% accurate and gave many false positives...]
EddieSteadyGo said:
Immunity once infected is a critical assumption I agree. If that wasn't the case, "option 1" (strict lockdown until burn out, borders closed until vaccine) or "option 2" (partial lockdown until vaccine) would be potentially better options.
Immunity uncertain, no vaccine for SARS 1, so the likelihood for SARS 2 is slim. Therapeutics likely to take months or a year, so a strategy based on herd immunity is very wrong.Testing and isolation works and lock downs. That is not herd immunity.
Thesprucegoose said:
Immunity uncertain, no vaccine for SARS 1, so the likelihood for SARS 2 is slim. Therapeutics likely to take months or a year, so a strategy based on herd immunity is very wrong.
Testing and isolation works and lock downs. That is not herd immunity.
You can't just lock down indefinitely.Testing and isolation works and lock downs. That is not herd immunity.
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