Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?
Discussion
Crumpet said:
Perfect excuse for a bit of time off though....
My parents have just come back from Bologna, full of cold, although my Dad claims it started before they went. They’ve no interest in self-quarantining themselves and I think that’s going to be what the majority think. Without repercussions most people are just going to shrug it off as a cold and carry on as normal and as a result I can’t see this being contained at all.
Have they called 111? My parents have just come back from Bologna, full of cold, although my Dad claims it started before they went. They’ve no interest in self-quarantining themselves and I think that’s going to be what the majority think. Without repercussions most people are just going to shrug it off as a cold and carry on as normal and as a result I can’t see this being contained at all.
Promising news
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/all-1...
All 16 cases cured in Vietnam and no new cases since the 13th February
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/all-1...
All 16 cases cured in Vietnam and no new cases since the 13th February
isaldiri said:
V6 Pushfit said:
Err no. If anything it shows how seriously this has to be taken and how important it is that no one wanders off to the shops feeling ill because they're that 'ard.
In regard to the numbers themselves they're what they are, sorry. If you want to discuss please do, and if you want to have a go about there being 24 hours in a day or that there's sodium in seawater I'm sure there are forums elsewhere.
Just as well then that the people who actually have to decide what happens seem to use a smidge more common sense than simply using the cfr numbers as they come up 'because they are what they are' and moronically believing those figures because the country would have been utterly paralysed if the government had taken your cfr at 30% at the time.In regard to the numbers themselves they're what they are, sorry. If you want to discuss please do, and if you want to have a go about there being 24 hours in a day or that there's sodium in seawater I'm sure there are forums elsewhere.
Deaths 2,707
Recovered 27,904
(in mild condition 40,551 (81%), serious/critical 9,215 (19%))
THESE are the figures WHO are explicitly going on but how is that 2% or even 5%? - because they've added the case numbers to them and then added a 'moronic' rider that their end number 'may be wrong'. Well I never.
Ayahuasca said:
I don’t think it can be contained.
Seems 98% or so survive, and that elderly or already less healthy are most likely to die.
Question - of the 98% who survive, what amount needed hospital treatment (ventilators, etc).
Because if we all get it there won’t be enough hospital places for everyone.
Bearing in mind it's incomplete data [you don't know what you don't know] I think the estimate for 'critical' is around 20% of infected; 'critical' could be defined as anything from needing direct hospital monitoring to being in a cat 1 ICU I guess - and of course its loading depends on time spread; quarter of a million needing 4 weeks hospital in 2 months is different to being spread over the year. Hence the push for containment/slowing of spread. Seems 98% or so survive, and that elderly or already less healthy are most likely to die.
Question - of the 98% who survive, what amount needed hospital treatment (ventilators, etc).
Because if we all get it there won’t be enough hospital places for everyone.
I've wondered for a few days now whether it would be better just to completely isolate and quarantine everyone. Essentially just set a strict 4-week hiatus that everyone complies to and let this virus die away.
Yes that would cause a lot of economic pain and loss of freedoms etc. But there'd be 2 benefits:
1. Much lower death count.
2. A quick recovery from the economic and social downturn.
But the alternative could be many months (even years) of continual creeping lockdowns which, overall, cause even more deaths and more lost economic growth.
Yes that would cause a lot of economic pain and loss of freedoms etc. But there'd be 2 benefits:
1. Much lower death count.
2. A quick recovery from the economic and social downturn.
But the alternative could be many months (even years) of continual creeping lockdowns which, overall, cause even more deaths and more lost economic growth.
Bad news from WHO presser - no evidence of lots of undetected mild cases
oyster said:
I've wondered for a few days now whether it would be better just to completely isolate and quarantine everyone. Essentially just set a strict 4-week hiatus that everyone complies to and let this virus die away.
Yes that would cause a lot of economic pain and loss of freedoms etc. But there'd be 2 benefits:
1. Much lower death count.
2. A quick recovery from the economic and social downturn.
But the alternative could be many months (even years) of continual creeping lockdowns which, overall, cause even more deaths and more lost economic growth.
Problem with that is you would need a global shutdown. No point us in the UK doing it if someone from Italy or China lands in the UK the day afterwards.Yes that would cause a lot of economic pain and loss of freedoms etc. But there'd be 2 benefits:
1. Much lower death count.
2. A quick recovery from the economic and social downturn.
But the alternative could be many months (even years) of continual creeping lockdowns which, overall, cause even more deaths and more lost economic growth.
Leithen said:
Bad news from WHO presser - no evidence of lots of undetected mild cases
Maybe most important (and bad) news: Aylward says mission found no evidence of lots of undetected mild #covid19 cases. That would mean percentage of severe cases and percentage of deaths we’re seeing now is real. Not what anyone wanted to hearOh s
tIn some ways there could be some good news from this - that isolation may work (curve flattening) and that the exponential rise isnt happening with the veracity originally expected.
oyster said:
I've wondered for a few days now whether it would be better just to completely isolate and quarantine everyone. Essentially just set a strict 4-week hiatus that everyone complies to and let this virus die away.
Yes that would cause a lot of economic pain and loss of freedoms etc. But there'd be 2 benefits:
1. Much lower death count.
2. A quick recovery from the economic and social downturn.
But the alternative could be many months (even years) of continual creeping lockdowns which, overall, cause even more deaths and more lost economic growth.
Apart from all the deaths of people in quarantine who didn't engage with healthcare because they're in quarantine.Yes that would cause a lot of economic pain and loss of freedoms etc. But there'd be 2 benefits:
1. Much lower death count.
2. A quick recovery from the economic and social downturn.
But the alternative could be many months (even years) of continual creeping lockdowns which, overall, cause even more deaths and more lost economic growth.
And the huge runs on financial institutions.
And the many years to recover.
oyster said:
I've wondered for a few days now whether it would be better just to completely isolate and quarantine everyone. Essentially just set a strict 4-week hiatus that everyone complies to and let this virus die away.
Yes that would cause a lot of economic pain and loss of freedoms etc. But there'd be 2 benefits:
1. Much lower death count.
2. A quick recovery from the economic and social downturn.
But the alternative could be many months (even years) of continual creeping lockdowns which, overall, cause even more deaths and more lost economic growth.
I'd just infect everyone on the planet and get it over with. Yes that would cause a lot of economic pain and loss of freedoms etc. But there'd be 2 benefits:
1. Much lower death count.
2. A quick recovery from the economic and social downturn.
But the alternative could be many months (even years) of continual creeping lockdowns which, overall, cause even more deaths and more lost economic growth.
oyster said:
I've wondered for a few days now whether it would be better just to completely isolate and quarantine everyone. Essentially just set a strict 4-week hiatus that everyone complies to and let this virus die away.
Yes that would cause a lot of economic pain and loss of freedoms etc. But there'd be 2 benefits:
1. Much lower death count.
2. A quick recovery from the economic and social downturn.
But the alternative could be many months (even years) of continual creeping lockdowns which, overall, cause even more deaths and more lost economic growth.
There would be a lot of people needed to work so we can stay at home for a month. Yes that would cause a lot of economic pain and loss of freedoms etc. But there'd be 2 benefits:
1. Much lower death count.
2. A quick recovery from the economic and social downturn.
But the alternative could be many months (even years) of continual creeping lockdowns which, overall, cause even more deaths and more lost economic growth.
They would continue to spread it between them then the stay at homers would get it.
Leithen said:
Bad news from WHO presser - no evidence of lots of undetected mild cases
Even more baffling as to why a tiny region of Italy has loads then and London, Newyork, Paris etc have ZERO?!Exige77 said:
oyster said:
I've wondered for a few days now whether it would be better just to completely isolate and quarantine everyone. Essentially just set a strict 4-week hiatus that everyone complies to and let this virus die away.
Yes that would cause a lot of economic pain and loss of freedoms etc. But there'd be 2 benefits:
1. Much lower death count.
2. A quick recovery from the economic and social downturn.
But the alternative could be many months (even years) of continual creeping lockdowns which, overall, cause even more deaths and more lost economic growth.
There would be a lot of people needed to work so we can stay at home for a month. Yes that would cause a lot of economic pain and loss of freedoms etc. But there'd be 2 benefits:
1. Much lower death count.
2. A quick recovery from the economic and social downturn.
But the alternative could be many months (even years) of continual creeping lockdowns which, overall, cause even more deaths and more lost economic growth.
They would continue to spread it between them then the stay at homers would get it.
Of course they should all still get paid or not have to pay the mortgage. I wonder if they would be happy for their tenants to not pay rent for the month?
V6 Pushfit said:
Leithen said:
Bad news from WHO presser - no evidence of lots of undetected mild cases
Maybe most important (and bad) news: Aylward says mission found no evidence of lots of undetected mild #covid19 cases. That would mean percentage of severe cases and percentage of deaths we’re seeing now is real. Not what anyone wanted to hearOh s
tIn some ways there could be some good news from this - that isolation may work (curve flattening) and that the exponential rise isnt happening with the veracity originally expected.
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