HS2, whats the current status ?
Discussion
Vaud said:
I'm sorry to be realistic but:
There may be a niche for flying taxis like this, serving some areas - I agree. Not to mass replace trains, but to replace exec cars.
Also I doubt that masses of VTOL will never be allowed to fly over London, by example and land/takeoff... in a defined air corridor like helicopters, maybe.
If you read my piece I specifically referenced that the InterCity replacement model would be a 20-50 seat unit. This would be able to fly in the region of 250-300 miles with current batteries. If you don't want to eVTOL more like 500 miles is possible.- The Uber is an unproven reference model that cites a 60 mile range
- Air traffic is always more sensitive to weather, especially smaller aircraft (not least the airport/landing area becomes a controlling factor as they have to space out landings more. Tech only goes so far.
- Capacity. "Vehicles must have three or four passenger seats in addition to the pilot. For four passengers
- No chance for $200k.
There may be a niche for flying taxis like this, serving some areas - I agree. Not to mass replace trains, but to replace exec cars.
Also I doubt that masses of VTOL will never be allowed to fly over London, by example and land/takeoff... in a defined air corridor like helicopters, maybe.
The Karem design was able to meet Ubers reference usage model with currently available batteries (multiple 25 mile journeys with 5 minute charges).
They will initially be testing in places with good weather, once public will is behind it solutions to bad weather will be found, it's not like trains do particularly well in extreme weather either. In the case of air busses the numbers of take offs and landings are much lower.
Air buses will probably mostly land at existing rail stations or other interchanges, the noise environment at these places are already pretty high.
In terms of operations in central business districts,
1: The craft will be limited to corridors but obviously these are 3D corridors.
2: The landing and take off locations will either be over the river or on the top of buildings tall enough that you will be barely able to hear them at ground level.
3: See my previous answer about cost.
Talksteer said:
If you read my piece I specifically referenced that the InterCity replacement model would be a 20-50 seat unit. This would be able to fly in the region of 250-300 miles with current batteries. If you don't want to eVTOL more like 500 miles is possible.
So you replace 8 * 75 seats with 20-50 * x VTOLsYou haven't addressed airspace traffic for the massive volume increase you have suggested.
How will this work in London? How many buildings are rated for aircraft landing on (an adapted roof)? Why do you think helicopters are so tightly restricted today?
The railways are already there and residents struggle to protest. Scale up and try the calculations on replacing even 30% of the rail traffic to London.
As I said, I agree in defined use cases. LHR to LGW. A few exec seats into London. San Francisco to San Jose would be a great example.
But not to replace mass transit.
Back on the subject of HS2, it's reported that even though the budget from 2010 has now increased by 70% a leaked document for the I & P Authority suggests it may overshoot by a further 60%. There's a growing belief that there was never a proper budget (is there ever on major projects?), initial budgets were allegedly based on costings for projects in France and Spain across large rural areas. Add to which the Finance Director resigned last year after a cover up of almost £2m unauthorised redundancy payments and that one of their major contractors was forced to hand back a contract for £170m over conflicts of interest.
It stinks.
It stinks.
Blue62 said:
Back on the subject of HS2, it's reported that even though the budget from 2010 has now increased by 70% a leaked document for the I & P Authority suggests it may overshoot by a further 60%. There's a growing belief that there was never a proper budget (is there ever on major projects?), initial budgets were allegedly based on costings for projects in France and Spain across large rural areas. Add to which the Finance Director resigned last year after a cover up of almost £2m unauthorised redundancy payments and that one of their major contractors was forced to hand back a contract for £170m over conflicts of interest.
It stinks.
£2m in a multi-billion project is hardly worth getting excited about. It stinks.
Can anyone come up with a multiple billion pound infrastructure project that has ever come in on time/budget? I
The system for delivering public infrastructure in the UK is demonstrably broken.
The quality and volume of projects delivered, for a first-world, G7 economy borders on the ridiculous. It would be funny were it no so infuriating and did not have such dire limitations on future economic growth.
I am no big fan of rail, but being an occasional user of the West Coast mainline and also the local lines between Birmingham and Manchester, even I am happy to gamble that the extra capacity (if not the actual speed or journey time reduction) of HS2 is a good move.
We also need roads, lots and various. There are plenty of towns without proper road networks or bypasses, some of which are critical redundancy routes for the motorway network. Stafford, near me, is a prime example. Local authorities either get bogged down with Nimbyism and corrupt interested parties, or else just don't have (or don't prioritise) budget, yet the consequences of this have a regional and national impact.
For all the bluster about supporting business, transport infrastructure is IMHO, the most important thing the government can alter to benefit regions and businesses.
The quality and volume of projects delivered, for a first-world, G7 economy borders on the ridiculous. It would be funny were it no so infuriating and did not have such dire limitations on future economic growth.
I am no big fan of rail, but being an occasional user of the West Coast mainline and also the local lines between Birmingham and Manchester, even I am happy to gamble that the extra capacity (if not the actual speed or journey time reduction) of HS2 is a good move.
We also need roads, lots and various. There are plenty of towns without proper road networks or bypasses, some of which are critical redundancy routes for the motorway network. Stafford, near me, is a prime example. Local authorities either get bogged down with Nimbyism and corrupt interested parties, or else just don't have (or don't prioritise) budget, yet the consequences of this have a regional and national impact.
For all the bluster about supporting business, transport infrastructure is IMHO, the most important thing the government can alter to benefit regions and businesses.
Digga said:
The quality and volume of projects delivered, for a first-world, G7 economy borders on the ridiculous. It would be funny were it no so infuriating and did not have such dire limitations on future economic growth.
Is anyone else better at it? The US has had massive project failures (e.g. Big Dig in Boston)Digga said:
There are plenty of towns without proper road networks or bypasses
True but bypasses can (not always) be a double edged sword. They benefit those that want to go from point A to point C. Removing traffic from point B with a bypass can also adversely affect the local economy.Vaud said:
Digga said:
The quality and volume of projects delivered, for a first-world, G7 economy borders on the ridiculous. It would be funny were it no so infuriating and did not have such dire limitations on future economic growth.
Is anyone else better at it? The US has had massive project failures (e.g. Big Dig in Boston)
It's also worse too.Vaud said:
Digga said:
There are plenty of towns without proper road networks or bypasses
True but bypasses can (not always) be a double edged sword. They benefit those that want to go from point A to point C. Removing traffic from point B with a bypass can also adversely affect the local economy.The funny thing about transport is how many ways the economy, in its broadest sense, can utilise and benefit from it. Firms benefit from faster and cheaper transit times for goods and personnel. Both employees and employers benefit from reduced commute times because it enables better variety of jobs and workers.
Vaud said:
I don't disagree that bypasses can help the macro economy.
But that can be a hard sell at the local level when you are the local councillor / MP. "It's for the greater good - look the traffic has all gone - oh, I'm sorry your petrol station went under because of it"
Yes, but that is peak Nimbyism - usually the corruption bit that I mention previously - which clouds the issue. A lot of the time, there is absolutely no case for not building the infrastructure, but there are too many shades of grey where local councils meet local 'interests'. I use quotation marks because usually it is a corruption of shared interest, influenced by one or two with skin in the game.But that can be a hard sell at the local level when you are the local councillor / MP. "It's for the greater good - look the traffic has all gone - oh, I'm sorry your petrol station went under because of it"
Digga said:
Vaud said:
I don't disagree that bypasses can help the macro economy.
But that can be a hard sell at the local level when you are the local councillor / MP. "It's for the greater good - look the traffic has all gone - oh, I'm sorry your petrol station went under because of it"
Yes, but that is peak Nimbyism - usually the corruption bit that I mention previously - which clouds the issue. A lot of the time, there is absolutely no case for not building the infrastructure, but there are too many shades of grey where local councils meet local 'interests'. I use quotation marks because usually it is a corruption of shared interest, influenced by one or two with skin in the game.But that can be a hard sell at the local level when you are the local councillor / MP. "It's for the greater good - look the traffic has all gone - oh, I'm sorry your petrol station went under because of it"
That is now the second time today you've mentioned corruption in relation to local authorities. Corruption is a very serious matter and people get locked up for it in this country. I don't know of course if you are old enough to remember the names of John Polson and T Dan Smith, but I am.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Poulson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T._Dan_Smith
If you've got any actual evidence of corruption then we would all like to know about it, as indeed would the police. If you haven't, and you are just using the word to throw unsubstantiated slurs at people, then I would suggest that you, perhaps, choose your words more carefully in future.
Rant over
rs1952 said:
OK - I'll bite now. Off-topic but never mind...
That is now the second time today you've mentioned corruption in relation to local authorities. Corruption is a very serious matter and people get locked up for it in this country. I don't know of course if you are old enough to remember the names of John Polson and T Dan Smith, but I am.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Poulson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T._Dan_Smith
If you've got any actual evidence of corruption then we would all like to know about it, as indeed would the police. If you haven't, and you are just using the word to throw unsubstantiated slurs at people, then I would suggest that you, perhaps, choose your words more carefully in future.
Rant over
The trouble with 'biting' is you can thereby get bitten back.That is now the second time today you've mentioned corruption in relation to local authorities. Corruption is a very serious matter and people get locked up for it in this country. I don't know of course if you are old enough to remember the names of John Polson and T Dan Smith, but I am.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Poulson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T._Dan_Smith
If you've got any actual evidence of corruption then we would all like to know about it, as indeed would the police. If you haven't, and you are just using the word to throw unsubstantiated slurs at people, then I would suggest that you, perhaps, choose your words more carefully in future.
Rant over
Go censor someone else's words. I will choose mine with our without your approval.
There's a fine line between cronyism and corruption. In the strictest definition of the word, it has a different, broader meaning than the legal term. Corruption can be both individual and also systemic.
https://www.transparency.org.uk/corruption-and-bri...
If the word is good enough for Robert Reich, it's good enough for me. He writes about the USA, but much of what he says is applicable in the UK and elsewhere:
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/24338377-savin...
PositronicRay said:
Talksteer said:
An eVTOL will mass around 1000kg, seat 4 people, be made of CF, have around 500bhp of electric motors and 80kwh of batteries. It will be produced at volumes of around 4-5000 per year.
You do realise that 1 bhp is about 0.7 KW. You are Diane Abbott, aren't you. Sheepshanks said:
PositronicRay said:
Talksteer said:
An eVTOL will mass around 1000kg, seat 4 people, be made of CF, have around 500bhp of electric motors and 80kwh of batteries. It will be produced at volumes of around 4-5000 per year.
You do realise that 1 bhp is about 0.7 KW. You are Diane Abbott, aren't you. Talksteer said:
This is the line of thought by people who estimated that SpaceX would need $4 billion to develop a new rocket and it would cost $300 million per launch.
An eVTOL will mass around 1000kg, seat 4 people, be made of CF, have around 500bhp of electric motors and 80kwh of batteries. It will be produced at volumes of around 4-5000 per year.
You could scale it against helicopters in which case it would come in at about $2 million or you could scale it against a McLaren 720s with a Tesla drive train in which case it comes out at around $250k.
There is no inherent reason why flying things need to cost enormous amounts of money, fundamentally the only difference between something that flies and something that doesn't is QA and V&V and those costs fall drastically on a per unit basis if you volume produce the product.
eVTOL will use technology that is already commoditiesed (batteries/motors) from day one and they also can pull technical solutions from delivery drones which will provide a lower risk place to try things out.
As for buses costing 400k I present to you the effects of not manufacturing at volumes products that the public don't give a s
t about!
People seem to have built multi rotors capable of carrying people at home, so i have no doubt the cost can be met. The problem still comes down to area they take up. A one person/motorbike capacity thing appears to have a footprint much larger than a car. My work car park is full as it is, if we all suddenly need an area twice as big where do we put them? Folding the arms is an option (until someone forgets to latch it) i guess but starts adding complexity. I live in a relatively rural area so space isn't critical but if nothing else i doubt i'll be using a flying car to get to work as i live 5 miles from a (proper) runway threshold and work beside it.An eVTOL will mass around 1000kg, seat 4 people, be made of CF, have around 500bhp of electric motors and 80kwh of batteries. It will be produced at volumes of around 4-5000 per year.
You could scale it against helicopters in which case it would come in at about $2 million or you could scale it against a McLaren 720s with a Tesla drive train in which case it comes out at around $250k.
There is no inherent reason why flying things need to cost enormous amounts of money, fundamentally the only difference between something that flies and something that doesn't is QA and V&V and those costs fall drastically on a per unit basis if you volume produce the product.
eVTOL will use technology that is already commoditiesed (batteries/motors) from day one and they also can pull technical solutions from delivery drones which will provide a lower risk place to try things out.
As for buses costing 400k I present to you the effects of not manufacturing at volumes products that the public don't give a s
t about!Talksteer said:
There is no inherent reason why flying things need to cost enormous amounts of money,
I'm afraid there is, and it's called GRAVITY!(Hint, should something go wrong on your car, for the most part, you will just coast to a halt. As the recent LC Helicopter crash proved, after the failure of a bearing costing just a few ££, the "coasting to a halt" did not end well for those in the helicopter, and only by the grace of god was no one on the ground killed. Try getting insurance for a Helicopter flying over london and report back to me how "cheap" that is.
(and, if we have flying cars, then we need flying police. Given that the police are current horrendously underfunded and over stretched, can you see the time when piloting a flying vehicle becomes a free for all? No, me neither. )
Digga said:
rs1952 said:
OK - I'll bite now. Off-topic but never mind...
That is now the second time today you've mentioned corruption in relation to local authorities. Corruption is a very serious matter and people get locked up for it in this country. I don't know of course if you are old enough to remember the names of John Polson and T Dan Smith, but I am.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Poulson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T._Dan_Smith
If you've got any actual evidence of corruption then we would all like to know about it, as indeed would the police. If you haven't, and you are just using the word to throw unsubstantiated slurs at people, then I would suggest that you, perhaps, choose your words more carefully in future.
Rant over
The trouble with 'biting' is you can thereby get bitten back.That is now the second time today you've mentioned corruption in relation to local authorities. Corruption is a very serious matter and people get locked up for it in this country. I don't know of course if you are old enough to remember the names of John Polson and T Dan Smith, but I am.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Poulson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T._Dan_Smith
If you've got any actual evidence of corruption then we would all like to know about it, as indeed would the police. If you haven't, and you are just using the word to throw unsubstantiated slurs at people, then I would suggest that you, perhaps, choose your words more carefully in future.
Rant over
Go censor someone else's words. I will choose mine with our without your approval.
There's a fine line between cronyism and corruption. In the strictest definition of the word, it has a different, broader meaning than the legal term. Corruption can be both individual and also systemic.
https://www.transparency.org.uk/corruption-and-bri...
If the word is good enough for Robert Reich, it's good enough for me. He writes about the USA, but much of what he says is applicable in the UK and elsewhere:
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/24338377-savin...
You see I spent a good deal of 40 years working for local authorities and similar organisations; I have been a political party member and was involved on the periphery of politics for another 10 years, and I have never come across a single solitary example of this "widespread" corruption you seem to think exists. To be honest, officers and politicians that I have had experience of are scared shyteless of getting accused or it, and mainly because none of those that I knew were keen on the idea of prison food - especially the one I knew that was actually sent on compulsory holiday at Her Majesty's Pleasure, but that was for dealing heroin, not corruption
FFS, when I wanted to use the same company to service my gas boiler that the council I worked for used on their servicing contract, I had to get written permission from my Director. Corrupt as f
k, weren't they 
There were people around who thought that the Council was institutionally corrupt, however, and I dealt with a few of 'em when I was their Formal Complaints Officer. To a man (because women probably had more sense...) they could all be categorised as obsessives with a persecution complex, and usually intelligent people with too much time on their hands...
By the way I was not attempting to censor your words. I suggested that you choose them more carefully in future. These are two very different things.
Anyway, back to HS2
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