Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 5)
Discussion
Jimbeaux said:
ChocolateFrog said:
I'd always assumed the WHO was a just a mouthpiece with a few advisors and inspectors based out of somewhere like Geneva.
What the f
k are they spending 4.8 billion dollars a year on, the GDP of a small country.
I wager if you peeled away the bloated administrative gravy train riders, it would be not so much.What the f
k are they spending 4.8 billion dollars a year on, the GDP of a small country.https://www.who.int/about/finances-accountability/...
Thesprucegoose said:
The Government got it very wrong, there is no doubt in that, letting Cheltenham take place in hindsight was a death sentence to a lot. Combined with minimal testing it is very sad we will be hard hit on deaths, as it could have been very different, and this is what you expect a government to do.
In my view the eventual outcome is only going to be "very different" in one country or another if the healthcare system is overwhelmed or they fail to properly isolate the vulnerable.If we need 60% to get it to develop sufficient immunity then a small percentage of that 60% will die. The timing of those deaths will vary from country to country depending on the speed of the progress of the virus.
The only countries with a different strategy available are those who closed down quickly and are willing to cut themselves off from the rest of the world until a vaccine materialises. New Zealand is an example of a country with this option.
pneumothorax said:
It is the stuff of nightmares, staff are leaving, agency ones coming in to partially fill the gaps. If I had a sentient relative in one of these places I would have removed them weeks ago. This was predictable. You would have to actually see what I do to actually believe it.
I have a thing where I talk to any other residents as I am walking through these places en route to whoever I am seeing, there are always folk sitting around in the communal areas and they like to see a new face and have a chat. Last night I clocked one chap in the tv room, actually watching the news channel, said hello and then realised there was another resident (clearly dying) slumped in one of the other chairs, not watching anything....I suspect she will die in that chair.
It's a new reality and it is getting slightly dystopian.
I am sorry for you to have to live that as well as the residents. I remember such from Hurricane Katrina and other events in my career. It will change you in some ways forever but you will go on and be able to offer experience to others who will benefit. We are continuously molded and reshaped up until the day we punch out of life's timeclock.I have a thing where I talk to any other residents as I am walking through these places en route to whoever I am seeing, there are always folk sitting around in the communal areas and they like to see a new face and have a chat. Last night I clocked one chap in the tv room, actually watching the news channel, said hello and then realised there was another resident (clearly dying) slumped in one of the other chairs, not watching anything....I suspect she will die in that chair.
It's a new reality and it is getting slightly dystopian.
Pan Pan Pan said:
Different people have different ideas on this, which is perfectly OK. Only time will prove who had the right strategy.
It seems the government have given people broadly 3 options, which was:
Go out if you cannot work from home.
Go out if you need food or medicines.
Go out for 1 hours exercise..
For some option 1 might be non negotiable.They either go to work, or they lose their job, Or they are in an occupation such as an NHS worker whose efforts are vital.
Going to work is a joy at the moment. The roads are empty, even at 8 am.It seems the government have given people broadly 3 options, which was:
Go out if you cannot work from home.
Go out if you need food or medicines.
Go out for 1 hours exercise..
For some option 1 might be non negotiable.They either go to work, or they lose their job, Or they are in an occupation such as an NHS worker whose efforts are vital.
Here is a link to the WHO rolling updates - https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-cor...
Scroll to the bottom of the page to see exactly when China informed the WHO and how and when the WHO responded.
Scroll to the bottom of the page to see exactly when China informed the WHO and how and when the WHO responded.
TheJimi said:
They absolutely could have called it earlier, imo. It was an obvious pandemic weeks before the WHO came out and announced it as one. That's not just my layman's opinion, do some digging and you'll find it's opinion of many others far better informed than I am.
As for Trump removing funding, I think that's a fairly childish gesture from a hypocritical muppet. He's more or less trying to vindicate his own downplaying of the situation by virtue of pointing at the WHO and saying "but they didn't tell me..."
That is not why; he is considering the funding pull based upon the WHO covering for Chinese misinformation. Besides, last night he stated that he will not as this is obviously not the time for such actions. Non issue, for now.As for Trump removing funding, I think that's a fairly childish gesture from a hypocritical muppet. He's more or less trying to vindicate his own downplaying of the situation by virtue of pointing at the WHO and saying "but they didn't tell me..."
Piha said:
Here is a link to the WHO rolling updates - https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-cor...
Scroll to the bottom of the page to see exactly when China informed the WHO and how and when the WHO responded.
I had a flick through. It didn’t jump out at me but does anyone have the date for which WHO declared it as a Pandemic?Scroll to the bottom of the page to see exactly when China informed the WHO and how and when the WHO responded.
Pan Pan Pan said:
It seems the government have given people broadly 3 options, which was:
Go out if you cannot work from home.
Go out if you need food or medicines.
Go out for 1 hours exercise..
Since I want to limit the chances of picking up CV19 to the absolute minimum, taking up 2 out of the 3 available options `might' cut my chances of getting CV19 by around a third.
I think it's unlikely that those three activities are of equal risk. I suspect that as you have written them they are in decreasing order of risk (work, shop, exercise) and that work is likely orders of magnitude riskier than exercise.Go out if you cannot work from home.
Go out if you need food or medicines.
Go out for 1 hours exercise..
Since I want to limit the chances of picking up CV19 to the absolute minimum, taking up 2 out of the 3 available options `might' cut my chances of getting CV19 by around a third.
markyb_lcy said:
TheJimi said:
markyb_lcy said:
TheJimi said:
markyb_lcy said:
Trump, a man who continued to downplay the crisis including after WHO declared it a pandemic has now said the USA will stop giving WHO money because they didn’t make the call on the pandemic early enough. This is a man whose stupidity knows no bounds and continues to surprise.
Sure, he's an idiotic hypocrit, but on the single point made here about the WHO, he's not wrong.President Trump said:
They missed the call. They could’ve called it months earlier.”
Edited by TheJimi on Wednesday 8th April 00:20
Do you think he is right to pull US funding?
As for Trump removing funding, I think that's a fairly childish gesture from a hypocritical muppet. He's more or less trying to vindicate his own downplaying of the situation by virtue of pointing at the WHO and saying "but they didn't tell me..."
I don’t know what the WHO criteria for a pandemic actually is (and I may go and look), but are you saying WHO could have called it a pandemic based on their own criteria and data and held off on doing so?
Totally agree on the Trump funding thing, once again he’s sounding like a childish brat. Not fit for the office he holds.
Edited by markyb_lcy on Wednesday 8th April 10:05
From anecdotal medical reporting, this was at least 6 weeks into the Wuhan outbreak.
pneumothorax said:
A bad night in ooh gp land. My fears have been crystallised in a big way. Visited one home to palliate some poor soul, and confirm another death and was told that one floor of the home has been lost in the last week, that is 16 out of 40 residents. I saw three or four in passing that were also "on their way". No one is being let in and the ambulance service are not taking anyone out. Shocking to see. It's quite possible that this particular facility will have no paying customers in a week or two's time.
Sounds grim. BBC had a similar report earlier in the week. I can’t imagine what it’s like in those places.Jimbeaux said:
TheJimi said:
They absolutely could have called it earlier, imo. It was an obvious pandemic weeks before the WHO came out and announced it as one. That's not just my layman's opinion, do some digging and you'll find it's opinion of many others far better informed than I am.
As for Trump removing funding, I think that's a fairly childish gesture from a hypocritical muppet. He's more or less trying to vindicate his own downplaying of the situation by virtue of pointing at the WHO and saying "but they didn't tell me..."
That is not why; he is considering the funding pull based upon the WHO covering for Chinese misinformation. Besides, last night he stated that he will not as this is obviously not the time for such actions. Non issue, for now.As for Trump removing funding, I think that's a fairly childish gesture from a hypocritical muppet. He's more or less trying to vindicate his own downplaying of the situation by virtue of pointing at the WHO and saying "but they didn't tell me..."
JagLover said:
In my view the eventual outcome is only going to be "very different" in one country or another if the healthcare system is overwhelmed or they fail to properly isolate the vulnerable.
If we need 60% to get it to develop sufficient immunity then a small percentage of that 60% will die. The timing of those deaths will vary from country to country depending on the speed of the progress of the virus.
The only countries with a different strategy available are those who closed down quickly and are willing to cut themselves off from the rest of the world until a vaccine materialises. New Zealand is an example of a country with this option.
I think that is broadly true. If we need 60% to get it to develop sufficient immunity then a small percentage of that 60% will die. The timing of those deaths will vary from country to country depending on the speed of the progress of the virus.
The only countries with a different strategy available are those who closed down quickly and are willing to cut themselves off from the rest of the world until a vaccine materialises. New Zealand is an example of a country with this option.
The only factor which would be interesting to see modelled is how the scale of testing affects the progress of the virus between now and the vaccine being available.
Let's say if you test someone and find they are positive you can isolate them and you can also find and test all of their associates. I wonder by how much the rate of progress of the virus can be slowed if you had say 10,000 vs 50,000 vs 200,000 vs 500,000 tests per day.
Ultimately this does become a game of "whack-a-mole" with the end game only being reached with either a vaccine or you reach a sufficient proportion of population being infected.
But I'm uncertain how the scale of the testing affects the rate of spread of the virus, if we are letting the economy mostly function as normal.
otolith said:
Jimbeaux said:
ChocolateFrog said:
I'd always assumed the WHO was a just a mouthpiece with a few advisors and inspectors based out of somewhere like Geneva.
What the fk are they spending 4.8 billion dollars a year on, the GDP of a small country.
I wager if you peeled away the bloated administrative gravy train riders, it would be not so much.What the f
k are they spending 4.8 billion dollars a year on, the GDP of a small country.https://www.who.int/about/finances-accountability/...
arguti said:
The WHO wont allow Taiwan to join due to objections from China, then we have this gem from mid-January 2020 despite numerous Chinese doctors letting the world know it was highly contagious and as I said in my previous posts, looking at AE footage from China, you didn't have to be a rocket scientist to work out it was on its way everywhere.
From anecdotal medical reporting, this was at least 6 weeks into the Wuhan outbreak.
You missed my point though ... it might have looked like it was going to be a pandemic, but it cannot be labelled as one until it actually IS one. Prediction (albeit with strong probability) vs assertion. From anecdotal medical reporting, this was at least 6 weeks into the Wuhan outbreak.
Thanks for the extra info around Taiwan though. It’s unfortunate that diplomacy has to work this way but it’s the nature of the beast.
Edited by markyb_lcy on Wednesday 8th April 10:28
Jimbeaux said:
ChocolateFrog said:
I'd always assumed the WHO was a just a mouthpiece with a few advisors and inspectors based out of somewhere like Geneva.
What the fk are they spending 4.8 billion dollars a year on, the GDP of a small country.
I wager if you peeled away the bloated administrative gravy train riders, it would be not so much.What the f
k are they spending 4.8 billion dollars a year on, the GDP of a small country.Stay in Bed Instead said:
pneumothorax said:
A bad night in ooh gp land. My fears have been crystallised in a big way. Visited one home to palliate some poor soul, and confirm another death and was told that one floor of the home has been lost in the last week, that is 16 out of 40 residents. I saw three or four in passing that were also "on their way". No one is being let in and the ambulance service are not taking anyone out. Shocking to see. It's quite possible that this particular facility will have no paying customers in a week or two's time.
At least one news channel was stating recently, don't go into a care home as a new resident at the moment.I posted this on 4/3/2020
"Interesting thread, the main part of my job (out of hours GP) is visiting the frail and elderly in nursing homes and they are truly sitting ducks for this. I was in a large home in central London last night and if this gets in to any of these facilities, then it's going to be a disaster (think that cruise ship ++++) and some interesting decisions will be necessary. If even a small percentage of the folk in one home get properly sick then the nearest hospital's critical care will be rapidly overwhelmed. Central London has more of these places than you would know, unless you did. Rather than just advising hand washing etc, If I was to give one piece of advice to the NHS, I would effectively separate these folk from the rest of us for the next month or two, no visitors and staff under strict conditions and with some outside expertise on site with PPE all over the places.
111, as usual is being overwhelmed by the worried well, it always is but over the last week it has gone ballistic, and so the potentially actual cases are being obscured. Old, multi co-morbid Patients are not calling (they generally don't) and this is the real at risk group"
I am no genius and even I could see this coming. Utterly predictable. The folk in these places with some quality of life should have been moved at onset. I think that when this all gets looked at in the future, this particular issue is going to be considered the least humane thing we have done.
"Interesting thread, the main part of my job (out of hours GP) is visiting the frail and elderly in nursing homes and they are truly sitting ducks for this. I was in a large home in central London last night and if this gets in to any of these facilities, then it's going to be a disaster (think that cruise ship ++++) and some interesting decisions will be necessary. If even a small percentage of the folk in one home get properly sick then the nearest hospital's critical care will be rapidly overwhelmed. Central London has more of these places than you would know, unless you did. Rather than just advising hand washing etc, If I was to give one piece of advice to the NHS, I would effectively separate these folk from the rest of us for the next month or two, no visitors and staff under strict conditions and with some outside expertise on site with PPE all over the places.
111, as usual is being overwhelmed by the worried well, it always is but over the last week it has gone ballistic, and so the potentially actual cases are being obscured. Old, multi co-morbid Patients are not calling (they generally don't) and this is the real at risk group"
I am no genius and even I could see this coming. Utterly predictable. The folk in these places with some quality of life should have been moved at onset. I think that when this all gets looked at in the future, this particular issue is going to be considered the least humane thing we have done.
markyb_lcy said:
Jimbeaux said:
TheJimi said:
They absolutely could have called it earlier, imo. It was an obvious pandemic weeks before the WHO came out and announced it as one. That's not just my layman's opinion, do some digging and you'll find it's opinion of many others far better informed than I am.
As for Trump removing funding, I think that's a fairly childish gesture from a hypocritical muppet. He's more or less trying to vindicate his own downplaying of the situation by virtue of pointing at the WHO and saying "but they didn't tell me..."
That is not why; he is considering the funding pull based upon the WHO covering for Chinese misinformation. Besides, last night he stated that he will not as this is obviously not the time for such actions. Non issue, for now.As for Trump removing funding, I think that's a fairly childish gesture from a hypocritical muppet. He's more or less trying to vindicate his own downplaying of the situation by virtue of pointing at the WHO and saying "but they didn't tell me..."
You must also understand that what he can make the states do is limited, that is up to Governors. We have a different form of government that limits his control over the citizens as a whole. so why such vitriol aimed our way?
pneumothorax said:
I posted this on 4/3/2020
"Interesting thread, the main part of my job (out of hours GP) is visiting the frail and elderly in nursing homes and they are truly sitting ducks for this. I was in a large home in central London last night and if this gets in to any of these facilities, then it's going to be a disaster (think that cruise ship ++++) and some interesting decisions will be necessary. If even a small percentage of the folk in one home get properly sick then the nearest hospital's critical care will be rapidly overwhelmed. Central London has more of these places than you would know, unless you did. Rather than just advising hand washing etc, If I was to give one piece of advice to the NHS, I would effectively separate these folk from the rest of us for the next month or two, no visitors and staff under strict conditions and with some outside expertise on site with PPE all over the places.
111, as usual is being overwhelmed by the worried well, it always is but over the last week it has gone ballistic, and so the potentially actual cases are being obscured. Old, multi co-morbid Patients are not calling (they generally don't) and this is the real at risk group"
I am no genius and even I could see this coming. Utterly predictable. The folk in these places with some quality of life should have been moved at onset. I think that when this all gets looked at in the future, this particular issue is going to be considered the least humane thing we have done.
I'm no expert on nursing homes but are the under the remit of the NHS? I just assumed most of them were private companies."Interesting thread, the main part of my job (out of hours GP) is visiting the frail and elderly in nursing homes and they are truly sitting ducks for this. I was in a large home in central London last night and if this gets in to any of these facilities, then it's going to be a disaster (think that cruise ship ++++) and some interesting decisions will be necessary. If even a small percentage of the folk in one home get properly sick then the nearest hospital's critical care will be rapidly overwhelmed. Central London has more of these places than you would know, unless you did. Rather than just advising hand washing etc, If I was to give one piece of advice to the NHS, I would effectively separate these folk from the rest of us for the next month or two, no visitors and staff under strict conditions and with some outside expertise on site with PPE all over the places.
111, as usual is being overwhelmed by the worried well, it always is but over the last week it has gone ballistic, and so the potentially actual cases are being obscured. Old, multi co-morbid Patients are not calling (they generally don't) and this is the real at risk group"
I am no genius and even I could see this coming. Utterly predictable. The folk in these places with some quality of life should have been moved at onset. I think that when this all gets looked at in the future, this particular issue is going to be considered the least humane thing we have done.
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