Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Digga said:
nfortunately, it is not uncommon to find those who effectively exist on OPM (other people's money) and are not involved in any sort of coal-face endeavours day-to-day are frequently also blithely unaware of how and why they are able to exist in a cosy bubble of first-world, Western splendour, from which to hatch their 'ideals'. Ironically, this remains the case even though the rest of the developing world know only too well and understandably, are arriving here in droves because they know the flipside and understandably want to get away from it.
I do have to admit, I do feel I am now in a minority, being in the private sector, working all of my life and believing in sacrifice and hard work to get what I want out of life, and not having to rely on benefits, but paying back by way of taxes and NI.What I find hard to swallow is that now, there seem to be so many who feel 'entitled', despite not ever paying tax or putting something back into the system. I find it hard to comprehend the something for nothing attitude, it's not way I was brought up. Too many today now think that getting stuff they want is easy and takes little effort. But someone's paying for all of that free stuff. Yet, those same someone's are ridiculed, even by some on here, calling us 'sociapaths' and other equally degrading words. Why? Because we pay our taxes, make net contributions to the benefits system and economy, helping to pay those who call us 'sociapaths' wages, and use public services the least!
Just had to get that off my chest!
LongQ said:
If the "populace" decides to stay in expect a lot of pressure to join the Euro Zone.
We won't feel that pressure from within the UK, and I'd be very surprised if any mainstream european politician called for it, so no external pressure either.Just as in the late 1990s, the UK remains out of step with the rest of Europe in terms of consumer debt. We are way more highly geared and with far greater exposure to floating rate debt. Therefore our economy's sensitivity to interest rates is significantly different to that of core europe. We'd need to go through a significant amount of structural change before we could consider joining and there's clearly no appetite for that in any quarter.
chris watton said:
Digga said:
nfortunately, it is not uncommon to find those who effectively exist on OPM (other people's money) and are not involved in any sort of coal-face endeavours day-to-day are frequently also blithely unaware of how and why they are able to exist in a cosy bubble of first-world, Western splendour, from which to hatch their 'ideals'. Ironically, this remains the case even though the rest of the developing world know only too well and understandably, are arriving here in droves because they know the flipside and understandably want to get away from it.
I do have to admit, I do feel I am now in a minority, being in the private sector, working all of my life and believing in sacrifice and hard work to get what I want out of life, and not having to rely on benefits, but paying back by way of taxes and NI.What I find hard to swallow is that now, there seem to be so many who feel 'entitled', despite not ever paying tax or putting something back into the system. I find it hard to comprehend the something for nothing attitude, it's not way I was brought up. Too many today now think that getting stuff they want is easy and takes little effort. But someone's paying for all of that free stuff. Yet, those same someone's are ridiculed, even by some on here, calling us 'sociapaths' and other equally degrading words. Why? Because we pay our taxes, make net contributions to the benefits system and economy, helping to pay those who call us 'sociapaths' wages, and use public services the least!
Just had to get that off my chest!
They won't work, at least not with the potential for huge skimmage of huge economic activity that is sustainable.
I believe we can still all live happy and fruitful lives with zero economic growth, we just have zero population growth and improve our lot in life by advancing our technologies and capabilities. We set lower expectations for ourselves.
But sadly it seems that isn't desirable for those who live life at the top because they have no place sapping huge percentages of the wealth for doing very little practical good in that type of zero growth world, and since they run the world it seems we can't have that happy sustainable place.
So because capitalism is about to break, it seems rather than being pragmatic and forward thinking, our rulers are just looking through the book of government types that allow an elite political class to survive, and the only one that matches is communism.
So essentially the near zero growth model, but somehow the greedy t
ts at the top manage to stick around and thus everyone else has to live essentially like slaves to sustain their rulers lavish lifestyles.Great. Communism... again.
As Tim Worstall says - Greek Debt Crisis: This Is Puppet Theatre About How Creditors Lose Their Money, Not Whether
This has nothing to do with repaying debts (they can't be). The debt is gone. Either by paying back less or by letting inflation shrink it's value over decades. The result is the same, all of this stalemate and mess is just politics:
Do the Germans (and French etc.) politicians go to their people and say 'sorry, we won't get the money back' or 'we'll get it all back (over the next 50 years)'
Proper capitalism would have already said. 'Oh well, we'll never see that money. Still, let's not make the same mistake again. Ok, so who want's a loan? Puerto Rico? An American territory you say? Well, they must be good for their debts.'
This has nothing to do with repaying debts (they can't be). The debt is gone. Either by paying back less or by letting inflation shrink it's value over decades. The result is the same, all of this stalemate and mess is just politics:
Do the Germans (and French etc.) politicians go to their people and say 'sorry, we won't get the money back' or 'we'll get it all back (over the next 50 years)'
Proper capitalism would have already said. 'Oh well, we'll never see that money. Still, let's not make the same mistake again. Ok, so who want's a loan? Puerto Rico? An American territory you say? Well, they must be good for their debts.'
ATG said:
LongQ said:
If the "populace" decides to stay in expect a lot of pressure to join the Euro Zone.
We won't feel that pressure from within the UK, and I'd be very surprised if any mainstream european politician called for it, so no external pressure either.Just as in the late 1990s, the UK remains out of step with the rest of Europe in terms of consumer debt. We are way more highly geared and with far greater exposure to floating rate debt. Therefore our economy's sensitivity to interest rates is significantly different to that of core europe. We'd need to go through a significant amount of structural change before we could consider joining and there's clearly no appetite for that in any quarter.
Much too logical on the economics front.
Big economy, anyone seeing More Europe as the answer along with full political and economic integration, military integration and so on would have to conclude that the UK should be pressurised to join the EZ - or at least pay in to the area's economic funds to help balance the books in some way. Actually they might prefer "pay in" to join. All take and no give.
If another Soros type event comes along to attack the pound "events" may change things quickly.
LongQ said:
ATG said:
LongQ said:
If the "populace" decides to stay in expect a lot of pressure to join the Euro Zone.
We won't feel that pressure from within the UK, and I'd be very surprised if any mainstream european politician called for it, so no external pressure either.Just as in the late 1990s, the UK remains out of step with the rest of Europe in terms of consumer debt. We are way more highly geared and with far greater exposure to floating rate debt. Therefore our economy's sensitivity to interest rates is significantly different to that of core europe. We'd need to go through a significant amount of structural change before we could consider joining and there's clearly no appetite for that in any quarter.
Much too logical on the economics front.
Big economy, anyone seeing More Europe as the answer along with full political and economic integration, military integration and so on would have to conclude that the UK should be pressurised to join the EZ - or at least pay in to the area's economic funds to help balance the books in some way. Actually they might prefer "pay in" to join. All take and no give.
If another Soros type event comes along to attack the pound "events" may change things quickly.
As others have said on here who can honestly say that Greece can recover solvency? The largesse provided by the EU regularly sending more and more Bilions to keep Greece afloat is not actually helping the Greek state to return to solvency in any way at all. Greece is steadily falling more and more in debt every week. Increasingly insolvent all the time.
This has become a crooked method for Deliberate obfuscation to be effected by the EU and to enable the creditors of the failing states to pretend that their loans are safe. There can be only one result regrettably. Economic reality will shine over this dreadful crooked affair and there will be an almighty disruption in conseqence. Fairy tales In finance never ever, work.
I really do think the cracks are steadily showing in the leadership of Davd Cameron and his cohorts. To begin suggesting that the entire security of the EU could be challenged by the UK Referendum is just silly nonsense, unless of course DC actually thinks that the position of the EU is actually that weak? The very visible rise of the Right Wing in Austra causing resignations of very senior Austrian ministers puts the clarity of how weak the reality of the EU position has actually become into stark contrast. To my mind the game is up for the EU and that is becoming ever more apparent.
Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 10th May 19:48
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/10/battl...
I just can't believe that in 20 years the Euro will exist in its present state, or that fiscal Union will have happened.
I just can't believe that in 20 years the Euro will exist in its present state, or that fiscal Union will have happened.
rdjohn said:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/10/battl...
I just can't believe that in 20 years the Euro will exist in its present state, or that fiscal Union will have happened.
Wow, banks have lent money out to people who probably can't pay it back!I just can't believe that in 20 years the Euro will exist in its present state, or that fiscal Union will have happened.
So a bit like Greece then.
I wonder why all these EZ banks have lent so much money and so many are underperforming loans?
Don't they do projections and things to make sure this won't happen?
Are they just really incompetent
Mr Whippy said:
rdjohn said:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/10/battl...
I just can't believe that in 20 years the Euro will exist in its present state, or that fiscal Union will have happened.
Wow, banks have lent money out to people who probably can't pay it back!I just can't believe that in 20 years the Euro will exist in its present state, or that fiscal Union will have happened.
So a bit like Greece then.
I wonder why all these EZ banks have lent so much money and so many are underperforming loans?
Don't they do projections and things to make sure this won't happen?
Are they just really incompetent
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/11/officia...
Driller said:
In the meantime, it looks like the End still isn't nigh
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36250497
That'll be the great debt relief give-away deal then. So, so gets the haircut this time? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36250497
LongQ said:
If the vote is for "Out" then expect a re-run next year.
Do you really think that that is feasible? I know the EU have a history of getting "no" voters to revote until they say "yes", as per Ireland and Holland (I think) on the issue of the EU Constitution. However, when a larger and more EU important country voted "no" as the French did in the referendum on the constitution, the EU elite had to find a roundabout approach to getting their way, converting it into a treaty.What could they convert a Brexit "no" vote into to piss on democracy yet again? You're suggesting an idea that has already been mooted in the press, that there has to be a "no" vote to force the EU to actually make (or pretend to make) some meaningful concessions, a renegotiation that could then justify a revote. I think that this would just piss the British voters off.
And I still don't see how it can work long term. The €zone countries have to converge for survival of the currency, logically this is part of the ongoing steps to a federal Europe. If the UK stay part of the EU without joining the federalist dream, then we end up actually paying a very big conglomerate country a stipend to maintain a trade deficit with it. All in the name of external investment from other countries wanting to trade with the European Federation? Does not compute.
mondeoman said:
Driller said:
In the meantime, it looks like the End still isn't nigh
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36250497
That'll be the great debt relief give-away deal then. So, so gets the haircut this time? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36250497
zerohedge said:
MEPs Slam Latest Greek Bailout As "Social Armageddon"
YankeePorker said:
LongQ said:
If the vote is for "Out" then expect a re-run next year.
Do you really think that that is feasible? I know the EU have a history of getting "no" voters to revote until they say "yes", as per Ireland and Holland (I think) on the issue of the EU Constitution. However, when a larger and more EU important country voted "no" as the French did in the referendum on the constitution, the EU elite had to find a roundabout approach to getting their way, converting it into a treaty.What could they convert a Brexit "no" vote into to piss on democracy yet again? You're suggesting an idea that has already been mooted in the press, that there has to be a "no" vote to force the EU to actually make (or pretend to make) some meaningful concessions, a renegotiation that could then justify a revote. I think that this would just piss the British voters off.
And I still don't see how it can work long term. The €zone countries have to converge for survival of the currency, logically this is part of the ongoing steps to a federal Europe. If the UK stay part of the EU without joining the federalist dream, then we end up actually paying a very big conglomerate country a stipend to maintain a trade deficit with it. All in the name of external investment from other countries wanting to trade with the European Federation? Does not compute.
Italy must choose between the Euro and its own economic survival. Not quite as far down the road as Greece but catching up quick.
http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
Well here we are one month or so before the Referendum within the UK decides, or possibly fails to decide the immediate future of the UK, within the EU?
Remarkable number of opinions and views being expressed within the media in the UK and a fairly significant ruffling of political feathers in consequence. With ever greater daily, dire warnings and rebuttals in the media on a daily basis, in consequence to those concerns.
I think whatever the outcome ( which is clearly still at best, uncertain, currently) IMO, major changes within politics in the UK and political careers within the UK are an absolute certainty whatever the decision.
Personally I do think this vote is very much more finely balanced than the Remain camp initially anticipated it would be and one of the reasons why the clamour and increasingly desperate dire straits warnings are being issued daily by the Remain camp is the realisation that all is not at all well with their anticipated easy victory.
It does seem to me that the mere fact that we are having such a vote so many years after joining the EU, really does already reflect the steadily growing level of concern within the UK that the UK simply cannot accept matters as they have come to be. Perhaps the time has come to look for a different future in consequence. Certainly, that opportunity is now, very much, upon us!
Only a month to go and we will all know the final result. But, on the other hand, will that result be final? Now there is, indeed, another question?
It seems to me that the reality of the fundamental dishonesty within the position of the EU, whereby a Sovereign EU state, who is by every reasonable measure totally insolvent and unable to pay either it's debts or the interest on those debts, except by daily cash hand outs directly from the EU, is not and never can be, a sustainable economic position.
The EU position is therefore, doomed to failure and collapse in consequence, because the failing states could never afford to survive within the EU and can never afford to survive within the EU. The more I see of this, the more certain I am that this nonsense can only end In one way. Long term this nonsense must crumble.
Since none of the solvent EU states are actually prepared to pay the losses of the failing EU states and the failing EU states cannot survive as economic entities without such continuous subsidy, there can only be a massive crash coming towards the EU as this economic nonsense stumbles on. I do not want to see such a crash but everything I have seen, over the years, in this nonsense, tells me that, this just cannot continue.
How can the EU continue to bail out an abjectly insolvent Sovereign state when no country within the EU is actually prepared to underwrite any the debts of that country, yet the EU continues to advance further and further funds every week.? Good money after bad can never be good business.
I just cannot see how this nonsense cannot result in a massive and damaging collapse within Europe which will be bad for every European and indeed the World economy. I have never been able to see lending good money after bad can possibly solve any problems. The debt is dead. Only solvent nations can repay that debt.
The credibility of Europe would drop like a stone. No matter how the EU tries to prolong this alliance there seem to me to be far too many differing desires and efforts for change to be effected for these not to be taken seriously. Retaining this union in such a changing scenario seems to me to be an highly improbable.
One way or another I fear major change is inevitable within Europe. I do hope that the lessons of the last 70 years in post war Europe ensures measured responses to the needs of change. Continuing to deny reality is not a good starting place in any serious attempt to resolve debt difficulties.
No doubt there are many other differing views on PH. I would be most interested to hear these views and to see what other's make of the likely outcome? Certainly the biggest decision by the UK in my lifetime. The outcome and consequences will directly affect us all. Interesting times, indeed!
Remarkable number of opinions and views being expressed within the media in the UK and a fairly significant ruffling of political feathers in consequence. With ever greater daily, dire warnings and rebuttals in the media on a daily basis, in consequence to those concerns.
I think whatever the outcome ( which is clearly still at best, uncertain, currently) IMO, major changes within politics in the UK and political careers within the UK are an absolute certainty whatever the decision.
Personally I do think this vote is very much more finely balanced than the Remain camp initially anticipated it would be and one of the reasons why the clamour and increasingly desperate dire straits warnings are being issued daily by the Remain camp is the realisation that all is not at all well with their anticipated easy victory.
It does seem to me that the mere fact that we are having such a vote so many years after joining the EU, really does already reflect the steadily growing level of concern within the UK that the UK simply cannot accept matters as they have come to be. Perhaps the time has come to look for a different future in consequence. Certainly, that opportunity is now, very much, upon us!
Only a month to go and we will all know the final result. But, on the other hand, will that result be final? Now there is, indeed, another question?
It seems to me that the reality of the fundamental dishonesty within the position of the EU, whereby a Sovereign EU state, who is by every reasonable measure totally insolvent and unable to pay either it's debts or the interest on those debts, except by daily cash hand outs directly from the EU, is not and never can be, a sustainable economic position.
The EU position is therefore, doomed to failure and collapse in consequence, because the failing states could never afford to survive within the EU and can never afford to survive within the EU. The more I see of this, the more certain I am that this nonsense can only end In one way. Long term this nonsense must crumble.
Since none of the solvent EU states are actually prepared to pay the losses of the failing EU states and the failing EU states cannot survive as economic entities without such continuous subsidy, there can only be a massive crash coming towards the EU as this economic nonsense stumbles on. I do not want to see such a crash but everything I have seen, over the years, in this nonsense, tells me that, this just cannot continue.
How can the EU continue to bail out an abjectly insolvent Sovereign state when no country within the EU is actually prepared to underwrite any the debts of that country, yet the EU continues to advance further and further funds every week.? Good money after bad can never be good business.
I just cannot see how this nonsense cannot result in a massive and damaging collapse within Europe which will be bad for every European and indeed the World economy. I have never been able to see lending good money after bad can possibly solve any problems. The debt is dead. Only solvent nations can repay that debt.
The credibility of Europe would drop like a stone. No matter how the EU tries to prolong this alliance there seem to me to be far too many differing desires and efforts for change to be effected for these not to be taken seriously. Retaining this union in such a changing scenario seems to me to be an highly improbable.
One way or another I fear major change is inevitable within Europe. I do hope that the lessons of the last 70 years in post war Europe ensures measured responses to the needs of change. Continuing to deny reality is not a good starting place in any serious attempt to resolve debt difficulties.
No doubt there are many other differing views on PH. I would be most interested to hear these views and to see what other's make of the likely outcome? Certainly the biggest decision by the UK in my lifetime. The outcome and consequences will directly affect us all. Interesting times, indeed!
Whilst I agree with much of what you say here Steffan, I disagree with some of your analysis.
The powerful centres of wealth have always subsidised the periphery, not just in Europe, but in Italy (north vs south) in the UK (South vs North) and indeed in the UK vs Ireland, or many examples across the world.
Transfer of wealth between have and have nots is not new, or even particularly difficult to manage. However the financial instruments and the currency straight jacket ARE at issue with Greece and indeed all of southern Europe. It is not their fault per se.
Germany & France are both in breach of fiscal stability and harmonisation treaties. Germany runs a whopping 8% trade surplus and France is over GDP borrowing targets, both for multiple years.
It is the impact of this on the Eurozone which is subtle, but incremental. Greece MUST run a trade deficit to accommodate Germany, indeed as does the UK. It is against our national interest, as is CAP. but it is the club and we signed into it.
Nothing survives in the long run. But they don't seem to be able to reform the Euro as a currency, and without that flexibility it will not last.
As for the referendum, I am deeply disappointed that no one in Remain has even attempted to run a positive, pro Euro campaign. It has been like an abusive partner insisting that however bad things are now, you will be even worse off if you leave.
The big questions of the future of Europe if the UK does remain have not in any way been answered. Will Turkey join, will the UK be liable for further bailouts, will we still be able to retain the pound, will CAP last for 1000 years - can an open market for services ever really happen - indeed who in Europe is really pushing this now. What about defense and foreign policy - what are the strategic foriegn poilicy objectives of "Europe"
We simply have no idea, and no road map of integration is being discussed, but you can bet a surely as Stavros only works for cash these days, there is a grand plan for integration, but we the people are not allowed to see it.
Reading the latest IMF report on Greece it seems that cracks are appearing in the joint and agreed approach by the Eurozone and the IMF that have together condemned Greece to a third world existence.
When the IMF says "enough is enough" and reality has to hit home that your money's gone and you wont be getting it back for 40 years, and the interest rate is zero on those loans anyway, the game is getting towards injury time.
Can Merkel survive the next elections if she has to bite the bullet and come clean to her population re their cash she has thrown away? Will the far right drastically influence the results in both Germany and France because of the migrant crisis. Then factor in all the financial problems in Italy, Spain and Portugal.
Just how long can this Eurozone stagger on like a drunk man clutching at every lampost in desperation for support.
Still its good of Dave to point out that if we vote to leave the sinking ship our holidays abroad would cost more. That is presupposing that the Euro doesn't crash against the more stable currencies.
Mind you there's no point going through the tunnel or on the ferry to France, as there's no fuel to fill up your car once you get there.
Interesting times indeed.
Cheers,
Tony
When the IMF says "enough is enough" and reality has to hit home that your money's gone and you wont be getting it back for 40 years, and the interest rate is zero on those loans anyway, the game is getting towards injury time.
Can Merkel survive the next elections if she has to bite the bullet and come clean to her population re their cash she has thrown away? Will the far right drastically influence the results in both Germany and France because of the migrant crisis. Then factor in all the financial problems in Italy, Spain and Portugal.
Just how long can this Eurozone stagger on like a drunk man clutching at every lampost in desperation for support.
Still its good of Dave to point out that if we vote to leave the sinking ship our holidays abroad would cost more. That is presupposing that the Euro doesn't crash against the more stable currencies.
Mind you there's no point going through the tunnel or on the ferry to France, as there's no fuel to fill up your car once you get there.
Interesting times indeed.
Cheers,
Tony
Tony427 said:
Reading the latest IMF report on Greece it seems that cracks are appearing in the joint and agreed approach by the Eurozone and the IMF that have together condemned Greece to a third world existence.
When the IMF says "enough is enough" and reality has to hit home that your money's gone and you wont be getting it back for 40 years, and the interest rate is zero on those loans anyway, the game is getting towards injury time.
Can Merkel survive the next elections if she has to bite the bullet and come clean to her population re their cash she has thrown away? Will the far right drastically influence the results in both Germany and France because of the migrant crisis. Then factor in all the financial problems in Italy, Spain and Portugal.
Just how long can this Eurozone stagger on like a drunk man clutching at every lampost in desperation for support.
Still its good of Dave to point out that if we vote to leave the sinking ship our holidays abroad would cost more. That is presupposing that the Euro doesn't crash against the more stable currencies.
Mind you there's no point going through the tunnel or on the ferry to France, as there's no fuel to fill up your car once you get there.
Interesting times indeed.
Cheers,
Tony
It seems to be a case of all EZ/EU members holding their breath, and holding it together - just needs 1 to give up and the scheme could start crumpling for the Greek drama will enjoy an encore.When the IMF says "enough is enough" and reality has to hit home that your money's gone and you wont be getting it back for 40 years, and the interest rate is zero on those loans anyway, the game is getting towards injury time.
Can Merkel survive the next elections if she has to bite the bullet and come clean to her population re their cash she has thrown away? Will the far right drastically influence the results in both Germany and France because of the migrant crisis. Then factor in all the financial problems in Italy, Spain and Portugal.
Just how long can this Eurozone stagger on like a drunk man clutching at every lampost in desperation for support.
Still its good of Dave to point out that if we vote to leave the sinking ship our holidays abroad would cost more. That is presupposing that the Euro doesn't crash against the more stable currencies.
Mind you there's no point going through the tunnel or on the ferry to France, as there's no fuel to fill up your car once you get there.
Interesting times indeed.
Cheers,
Tony
And if it as vulnerable as that, good thing we are not in the EZ zone.
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