Malaysia Airlines Plane "Loses Contact"

[JuniorD]

El stovey said:

AreOut said:

but there is a probability you can attribute to each event, turning off transponder at a handover area? 1:100. Flying along the border? 1:100. Going around Sumatra? 1:100. (I don't claim these are exact numbers but you get the idea)

Now you multiply numbers.

Those are just made up though. We don’t know why the transponder stopped working or why that route was flown.

What probability are you attaching to a pilot committing suicide after flying around loads of countries and wanting the aircraft to never be found?

What probability are you attaching to him trying to reach Australia and something happening which stopped him.

You appear to have ruled out every conceivable technical problem and combinations of events and multiple problems. What probability did you give to them?

It’s just guesswork. You’re attaching probability randomly,

There are loads of accidents that people wouldn’t have worked out without the ‘black box’ and CVR.

Who would have guessed that an Aeroflot A310 would have crashed because someone’s children disengaged the autopilot by accident whilst occupying the pilots seats? What was the probability of that happening?

Kids sitting in pilots seats in flight. 1:100
Kids disengage autopilot by accident 1:100
Nobody realising autopilot disengaged 1:100
Aircraft stalls
Pilots can’t recover.
Aircraft crashes
No radio calls.

Imagine if that was over the ocean and they didn’t find the aircraft. What would they think happened?

There are loads of crashes like this that would never have been guessed correctly by probability. So many different things have to go wrong for there to be a crash.

[Juanco20]

Does hypoxia impact everyone the same? Or would some people remain alive longer than others? If so, how much time difference are we talking?

[Flumpo]

Juanco20 said:

Does hypoxia impact everyone the same? Or would some people remain alive longer than others? If so, how much time difference are we talking?

A difference in seconds not minutes.

[Flumpo]

I only spotted this topic a few days ago so I haven’t read all of it from the beginning!

However if anyone is interested in mh370 I can highly recommend they read the metabunk mh370 threads. The detail and analysis on there is very thorough and interesting. Might be a bit heavy for some, as pilots discuss things in minute detail, posts of transponder manuals, the satellite data, the full Atsb reports etc.

[Seventy]

Flumpo said:

A difference in seconds not minutes.

Helios 522 might convince you otherwise.

[Flumpo]

Seventy said:

Flumpo said:

A difference in seconds not minutes.

Helios 522 might convince you otherwise.

How so?

I was under the impression the other person was asking if it effects people differently like say altitude sickness.

Hypoxia as far as I’m aware can be slow or fast depending on how quickly there is a loss of breathable oxeygen. But by the point the air runs out some people won’t last longer than others by minutes. If you can’t breath you can’t breath.

Unless I’m missing something Helios flight slowly lost pressure and breathable air. It happened slowly, but there wouldn’t have been people who remained conscience or alive minutes after others had died.

The sure stewardess has a portable breathing kit so was able to survive longer than the others.

So if I’ve missed the point of the question I would still say once hypoxia has actually set in some people would not be alive minutes after others. Most would be knocked out around the same time.

If I’m wrong happy to know why, I’m not a doctor but that was my understanding!

[slartibartfast]

Flumpo said:

I only spotted this topic a few days ago so I haven’t read all of it from the beginning!

However if anyone is interested in mh370 I can highly recommend they read the metabunk mh370 threads. The detail and analysis on there is very thorough and interesting. Might be a bit heavy for some, as pilots discuss things in minute detail, posts of transponder manuals, the satellite data, the full Atsb reports etc.

I'm just going to the shop for a large roll of tinfoil,

[Flumpo]

slartibartfast said:

Flumpo said:

I only spotted this topic a few days ago so I haven’t read all of it from the beginning!

However if anyone is interested in mh370 I can highly recommend they read the metabunk mh370 threads. The detail and analysis on there is very thorough and interesting. Might be a bit heavy for some, as pilots discuss things in minute detail, posts of transponder manuals, the satellite data, the full Atsb reports etc.

I'm just going to the shop for a large roll of tinfoil,

Erm why? Have you got a turkey to cook?

[anonymous-user]

What can they discuss in detail after they turned the transponder off. Even experts can not discuss details as the details are not exactly plentiful, the engine sat data, and some washed up bits.

[Flumpo]

Thesprucegoose said:

What can they discuss in detail after they turned the transponder off. Even experts can not discuss details as the details are not exactly plentiful, the engine sat data, and some washed up bits.

Ok doesn’t matter. I was just saying if people were interested then they might enjoy that website.

Strange place at times this Pistonheads forum.

[anonymous-user]

Flumpo said:

Ok doesn’t matter. I was just saying if people were interested then they might enjoy that website.

Strange place at times this Pistonheads forum.

They can discuss theories but actual details are thin on the ground, that is why every armchair pundit has something to say.

[Flumpo]

Thesprucegoose said:

Flumpo said:

Ok doesn’t matter. I was just saying if people were interested then they might enjoy that website.

Strange place at times this Pistonheads forum.

They can discuss theories but actual details are thin on the ground, that is why every armchair pundit has something to say.

Agreed, which is why the idea of the website is to ‘debunk’ armchair experts theories based on fact, evidence and what we do know.

A lot of the armchair experts have these crazy ideas because they don’t understand the basics of how planes, technology or science works.

There is also a lot more information known than what’s printed in the headline grabbing red tops, which people base their crazy theories on.

[Ayahuasca]

Halmyre said:

If it went down in the Indian Ocean, finding it would be like finding a grain of rice buried under a football pitch.

If it were that easy they would have found it months ago.

Rice: football pitch is about 1 in 8 million
B777: Indian Ocean is about 1 in 10 billion

[Halmyre]

Ayahuasca said:

Halmyre said:

If it went down in the Indian Ocean, finding it would be like finding a grain of rice buried under a football pitch.

If it were that easy they would have found it months ago.

Rice: football pitch is about 1 in 8 million
B777: Indian Ocean is about 1 in 10 billion

Yes, I was only considering the area, not the volume, and I was being generous in my estimate (arborio, not basmati...).

Even at 8 million to one, those are bad odds.

[AreOut]

the plane is lying on a seabed somewhere along the 7th arc so it improves the odds significantly, and they have already searched ~15-20% of theoretically possible area where it crashed, at the cost of around $200M

[Vipers]

Flumpo said:

Seventy said:

Flumpo said:

A difference in seconds not minutes.

Helios 522 might convince you otherwise.

How so?

I was under the impression the other person was asking if it effects people differently like say altitude sickness.

Hypoxia as far as I’m aware can be slow or fast depending on how quickly there is a loss of breathable oxeygen. But by the point the air runs out some people won’t last longer than others by minutes. If you can’t breath you can’t breath.

Unless I’m missing something Helios flight slowly lost pressure and breathable air. It happened slowly, but there wouldn’t have been people who remained conscience or alive minutes after others had died.

The sure stewardess has a portable breathing kit so was able to survive longer than the others.

So if I’ve missed the point of the question I would still say once hypoxia has actually set in some people would not be alive minutes after others. Most would be knocked out around the same time.

If I’m wrong happy to know why, I’m not a doctor but that was my understanding!

Before someone jumps in, you can be hypoxic unconscious but alive. Much below 160 mbs you loose consciousness, and can be resuscitated with an adequate oxygen supply.

But generally speaking agree with your comments.

[Tyre Tread]

It amuses me that we are on page 404 (for some) of this thread

[Morningside]

So we have gone from murder suicide to the Russians? Seem to be the default go to these days if all else fails.

Why not just put your hands up and just say "We don't know"?

[Penelope Stopit]

[frisbee]

Morningside said:

So we have gone from murder suicide to the Russians? Seem to be the default go to these days if all else fails.

Why not just put your hands up and just say "We don't know"?

Different 777. MH17 was shot down over the Ukraine, most likely by Russia.