CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 5)

[Otispunkmeyer]

Elysium said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

JagLover said:

There has already been suggestions that Boris has been held back from further restrictions by fear of a backbench revolt.

I'm certain this is the case. We would already be in lockdown if we didn't have some sceptical MPs willing to put their head over the parapet.

However, my concern is that they are going into battle using the wrong arguments e.g. "false positives", "casedemic", "lockdowns don't work" etc.

These are the wrong arguments, and they will be proven to be wrong. "False positives" as the primary cause of the recent rise in cases has largely been debunked by the ONS survey. I believe the "casedemic" arguments will fall when excess deaths start to rise in the next 2-3 weeks. Arguing "lockdowns don't work" is another fallacy - of course if you lock everyone down and reduce interactions between people you will reduce the spread of a respiratory infection - and we will see this from the reduction in infection rates in Wales from their lockdown which will be hard to argue against.

The effective arguments are i) how the harms caused by lockdown are more damaging to overall public health than the lives it saves ii) how shielding can actually work in practise to achieve a lower mortality figures than would be achieved with rolling lockdowns and iii) how we should be focused on isolating those with symptoms rather than the healthy.

IMO Boris is going to continue with the tier system until the credibility of those who have picked the wrong arguments are proven clearly to be wrong. After which he will switch to a lockdown policy towards the end of Nov.

I think we are reaching a tipping point where the public push back against restrictions. I also think that Johnson wants that to happen.

The next couple of weeks will be interesting.

The 'casedemic' has happened. The whole of Europe has convinced itself that there is a 'second wave' based on PCR tests, which lead to cases, which lead to hospitalisations, which lead to deaths.

Excess deaths will happen because COVID is real, it is additional to existing risks and because we continue to kill people by restricting access to treatments for other conditions.

The only thing that gets us out of this terrible mess is public opinion. I don't honestly care what arguments need to be made to change it, it just needs to change, because we are destroying our country.

Yes, even some of my friends are starting to question.... a bit late mind, because they're not stupid people, but perhaps they're just less skeptical or more unquestioning. I can't stop myself with the "but why?" questions and it sends me into all sorts of rabbit holes on all sorts of things. But I know few people are like that. I guess they're usually happy to just let stuff wash over them so long as it doesn't impact them too much*.... but now it is impacting them.

Tonight, on the news that Notts will go into Tier 3 on Thursday, I get sent a graph by said friends, from the BBC, showing very sharply dropping pillar 2 case numbers, barely a squeak of pillar 1 numbers and they are asking "why?, if its going down so fast, why are they ratcheting up the lock down?".

I've checked the BBC's data out and by the councils own numbers (last updated for the week of the 11th of October) :

Pillar 2 cases are rocketing down from circa 400/day just as fast as they went up.
Pillar 2 cases are basically all down to younger people. Avg ages is 20 years.
Pillar 2 cases are very very tightly clustered around the University. Even the adjacent wards show much lower numbers and the furthest out have barely any.
Pillar 1 cases are < 100 and falling. Avg age is 68.

There have been, according to the Nottingham post, today, 6 deaths for the whole month and these are described as deaths with covid-19.

BUT! apparently, hospitalisations are nearly the same as in April. Apparently. I am just not sure how given the numbers above, that can be believed. Though they do say demand for critical care ( i presume ICU) is much lower.

• This is how this stuff happens, because too many people are just apathetic about it until its too late.

[Andy888]

Hospitals in Northern Ireland now posting on Facebook and evening news that they are operating over capacity.

Will be interesting to see what happens as we progress through the proper half term week for schools this week.

Can see an extension on the horizon.

[Vanden Saab]

Elysium said:

Some graphs for today:

1. Distribution of reported cases by specimen date:



2. Cases per 100k tests vs Deaths with a 10 day lag. After correction for testing volumes cases are bumping around but the rate of increase has slowed. Hopefully deaths will start to do the same:



3. This is cases per 100k tests vs Whitty / Vallance 7 Day Doubling. Actual growth is much slower:

Edited by Elysium on Monday 26th October 18:55

They are running out of Uni and College students to test, No worries though as there are millions of children to test to keep the case numbers up. Expect testing centres to pop in in schools after half-term.

[Elysium]

Not sure if we have had this article yet:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/25/rule-s...

Unsurprisingly, the 'rule of six' and 10pm curfew has not resulted in a reduction in contact between people.

There is no middle ground. It is either the full on totalitarian oppression of endless lockdown or finding a way to protect the vulnerable by allowing everybody else to get on with their lives.

Lockdown is a disaster. Even the WHO agree. It would be an act of psychotic destruction to return to it.

There is only one way through this. We have to stand up for our rights.

[Thin White Duke]

Lawrence Fox says we must resist this madness.

https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/13203982429542...

I whole heartedly agree.

[EddieSteadyGo]

Otispunkmeyer said:

Yes, even some of my friends are starting to question.... a bit late mind, because they're not stupid people, but perhaps they're just less skeptical or more unquestioning. I can't stop myself with the "but why?" questions and it sends me into all sorts of rabbit holes on all sorts of things. But I know few people are like that. I guess they're usually happy to just let stuff wash over them so long as it doesn't impact them too much*.... but now it is impacting them.

Tonight, on the news that Notts will go into Tier 3 on Thursday, I get sent a graph by said friends, from the BBC, showing very sharply dropping pillar 2 case numbers, barely a squeak of pillar 1 numbers and they are asking "why?, if its going down so fast, why are they ratcheting up the lock down?".

I've checked the BBC's data out and by the councils own numbers (last updated for the week of the 11th of October) :

Pillar 2 cases are rocketing down from circa 400/day just as fast as they went up.
Pillar 2 cases are basically all down to younger people. Avg ages is 20 years.
Pillar 2 cases are very very tightly clustered around the University. Even the adjacent wards show much lower numbers and the furthest out have barely any.
Pillar 1 cases are < 100 and falling. Avg age is 68.

There have been, according to the Nottingham post, today, 6 deaths for the whole month and these are described as deaths with covid-19.

BUT! apparently, hospitalisations are nearly the same as in April. Apparently. I am just not sure how given the numbers above, that can be believed. Though they do say demand for critical care ( i presume ICU) is much lower.

• This is how this stuff happens, because too many people are just apathetic about it until its too late.

Your post sums up the consequences of the government's terrible communication plan.

They have exaggerated the statistics so many times to try and ensure compliance with their rules, particularly during the later phases of the lockdown, it has burnt up much of their credibility.

Their latest exaggeration is the lack of hospitals beds due to covid - they implied we are running out of hospital beds, particularly in north west England, but that is currently *not* true.

And the fact they don't want to share the data has even the local journalists suspicious they are not being told the truth.

But there is now a brewing issue with new covid infections - and because the government has told so many fibs, people won't believe it until the hospitals are physically overflowing. This is that happens when you play fast and loose with the truth.

[Elysium]

Just a hunch, but I wonder if this is why we have more Coronavirus cases than Japan and South Korea:



https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per...

[S13_Alan]

Surely even if nobody here had it the number of false positives or a general error rate would give us more on it's own?

[Elysium]

What do you think this ‘second wave’ would look like if we only tested people with COVID symptoms and severe illness?

I think it would all but vanish.

13 million tests since 1st Sept.

550k ‘cases’

How many ill?

PHE have no idea. They do not bother to capture data on symptoms.

[Taylor James]

Condi said:

Has SAGE or the government been bending the ears of the BBC again? There are a lot of Covid stories today about how dangerous it is, including a street in Bradford where 2 (yes TWO) people died in a month, and scary stories about an 87 year old being in hospital.

Maybe I'm skeptical but it feels a bit like as people are starting to get fed up and care less some parts of the media are ramping up the fear again.

We had a 4yo Belgian kid with it on Sky. Parent telling us to take it seriously. Needless to say, the child didn't die and predictably the parents ran a trendy vintage clothes business. Not sure I'll be able to sleep tonight with the worry.

[gazapc]

So what can we do about it? I'm honestly feeling more depressed everyday.

Attend rallies but get lumped in with the 5G/hoax lot? Outright ignore the rules?

I wrote to my MP 5 weeks ago and did get a generic reply but it can't hurt to write again. It would be great if he would listen to the entire Yeadon pod cast but I feel there should be a specific point for him to be pressed on rather than a general moan. But what point? The continued lack of data on false positives? The lack of data showing that lockdowns actually reduce cases? The lack of an economic analysis accompanying the introduction of new measures?

[EddieSteadyGo]

Elysium said:

What do you think this ‘second wave’ would look like if we only tested people with COVID symptoms and severe illness?

It would go back to looking like early March, albeit with a much slower pace of growth.

[Jasandjules]

djohnson said:

Thanks. I know nothing of this industry but I guess what this means is that we’re not taking these vaccines at our own risk. The government has indemnified the developer / manufacturer (possibly in part / with limitations) but this is, presumably, exactly what it says on the tin, Ie an indemnity. If I take the drug and suffer serious issues I can sue the manufacturer/ developer and if I’m successful they will pay me out and reclaim from the government under the indemnity.

No for vaccines (this as the others, I presume you already knew the childhood ones had no liability and if the child dies under two years old, no payment either) the liability is with a special Govt Department whom you lodge a claim with and if successful receive up to 120k. But that is the same as for pretty much all other vaccines, the manufacturer has no liability for the harm including death which may be caused.

[Biker 1]

gazapc said:

So what can we do about it? I'm honestly feeling more depressed everyday.

Attend rallies but get lumped in with the 5G/hoax lot? Outright ignore the rules?

Outright ignore the rules!! How many people actually stick to more than wearing a face nappy in Sainsbury's, just to avoid hassle?

[monkfish1]

Jasandjules said:

djohnson said:

Thanks. I know nothing of this industry but I guess what this means is that we’re not taking these vaccines at our own risk. The government has indemnified the developer / manufacturer (possibly in part / with limitations) but this is, presumably, exactly what it says on the tin, Ie an indemnity. If I take the drug and suffer serious issues I can sue the manufacturer/ developer and if I’m successful they will pay me out and reclaim from the government under the indemnity.

No for vaccines (this as the others, I presume you already knew the childhood ones had no liability and if the child dies under two years old, no payment either) the liability is with a special Govt Department whom you lodge a claim with and if successful receive up to 120k. But that is the same as for pretty much all other vaccines, the manufacturer has no liability for the harm including death which may be caused.

Actually, i think you will find the covid vaccine will also be excluded from the govrnment compensation scheme. The £120K is the max you can get under the scheme. Most getting nothing like that. Its a scale based on the level of harm caused,

It certainly seems with this one, you will be "on your own".

[pocty]

Not sure if this has been posted yet.

Herd Stupidity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NutSbOJd5g&fe...

Pocty

[anonymous-user]

pocty said:

Not sure if this has been posted yet.

Herd Stupidity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NutSbOJd5g&fe...

Pocty

i hate it when YTers are so close to the camera.

The MP is Tory personified but surprising talks some sense.

Jam Roly Poly

[markyb_lcy]

pocty said:

Not sure if this has been posted yet.

Herd Stupidity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NutSbOJd5g&fe...

Pocty

Brilliant.

What a guy.

[OddCat]

Not sure if we've has this but....

https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/

[Terminator X]

Boringvolvodriver said:

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

The most effective argument against the tiered local lockdowns, is that they're ineffective.

Agreed - our area has been under the forerunner of tier 2 since mid September, then tier 2 and prior to that only out of them for 3 weeks or so. Cases have not gone down and I have heard from my very reliable source that the numbers that will be announced tomorrow will show a further increase.............

More lockdown needed then!

TX.