East Coast Hurricane

[Jimbeaux]

GTIR said:

Jimbeaux said:

MattDell said:

I really don't understand all the fuss. Hurricanes hit the east coast every year.

Not that far north, not since 1985 Marty.

Great scott!

[Jimbeaux]

turbobloke said:

GTIR said:

Jimbeaux said:

MattDell said:

I really don't understand all the fuss. Hurricanes hit the east coast every year.

Not that far north, not since 1985 Marty.

Great scott!

Jimbeaux, is it down to a few miles in working that out? Just wondering how that kind of thing is decided, given Irene made landfall as a strong tropical storm and quite a few of those that made landfall in the recent past. Was the initial landfall of Isabel (2003) and Floyd (1999) a bit further south?

Fortunately there's been nothing as severe of late as the 1938 event - over 500 killed including 50 in NYC and nearly $5bn damage in today's money, then you bear in mind the development since then - all of which goes to show what an exceptional plank McKibben is with his recent pronouncements including placing the blame for Irene on Obama. I'm not BO's biggest fan but this aint down to him. Or anybody else!

Although the average hurricane here is about 300 miles wide, a few miles shift can make huge differences in damage. The northeast side of these storms are always the worse. The move counterclockwise, therefore, the water is pulled from offshore and dumped from the northeast side. That is why those to the west of a hurricane are referred to as being on the "dry side".

[adamfogerty]

Jimbeaux said:

Not that far north, not since 1985.

Hurricane Bob hit Rhode Island/Massachusetts as a cat. 2 in 1991.

[JMGS4]

Jimbeaux said:

I believe Williamsburg is pretty much OK; the power and some phone service is impacted. I suspect by no later than Wednesday you should hear something. If not, email me specifics and I will try to look them up from my end.

Jim, just had a mail from them; they're OK but hundreds of trees down and power will be out for at least 14 days on their plot, so they've gone to family further inland. Thanks for your help.

[davepoth]

UK news is reporting Vermont has been hit pretty hard by the rain.

[AshVX220]

davepoth said:

jeff m said:

Newark despite being a crap city has a good airport, far superior to JFK and a million times better than Philly.

Amen to that - it's much quicker to get from EWR to Manhattan as well.

Happy with that, because we land very late tomorrow night.

[davepoth]

AshVX220 said:

Happy with that, because we land very late tomorrow night.

You need to get the train, which is a bit of an experience.

[AshVX220]

davepoth said:

AshVX220 said:

Happy with that, because we land very late tomorrow night.

You need to get the train, which is a bit of an experience.

We have a "Super-shuttle" mini-bus booked, just trying to get hold of the hotel now, to make sure they got the message that we'll be late, we don't land until 2115.

[davepoth]

AshVX220 said:

We have a "Super-shuttle" mini-bus booked, just trying to get hold of the hotel now, to make sure they got the message that we'll be late, we don't land until 2115.

Probably for the best. The railroad station is exactly how you would imagine a railroad station in New Jersey. It's certainly an experience.

[jeff m]

No birds.....
I knew it was quiet, but didn't realise what was missing.
All the birds have apparantly bu66ered off.
I'm not sure if they decided to migrate early of if they have just taken a short hol.
My convertible top hopes it is the former.

[juice]

Don't like the look of Katia - most of the models put it on a ramming course with us !

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[mondeoman]

Isn't she just going to curl round to the west of Bermuda then bugger off into the North Atlantic?

[juice]

That would be great if it happens, long way West would be even better (to escape the NE Quadrant).

[Jimbeaux]

JMGS4 said:

Jimbeaux said:

I believe Williamsburg is pretty much OK; the power and some phone service is impacted. I suspect by no later than Wednesday you should hear something. If not, email me specifics and I will try to look them up from my end.

Jim, just had a mail from them; they're OK but hundreds of trees down and power will be out for at least 14 days on their plot, so they've gone to family further inland. Thanks for your help.

Good to know. I an glad they are well.

[Jimbeaux]

davepoth said:

UK news is reporting Vermont has been hit pretty hard by the rain.

The inland flooding due to the rivers draining from the hills is proving worse than coastal impacts.

[Jimbeaux]

juice said:

Don't like the look of Katia - most of the models put it on a ramming course with us !

http://www.stormpulse.com/

Welcome to my world.

[Jackleman]

Katia looks like a worry, she has formed quite a long way out giving her time to build strength, could she get up to an Cat 5? But the models are far from clear yet from what I can see.

[davepoth]

Jackleman said:

Katia looks like a worry, she has formed quite a long way out giving her time to build strength, could she get up to an Cat 5? But the models are far from clear yet from what I can see.

As you have probably noticed from the NOAA website the forecasting only goes 5 days out and it's pretty vague at that point.

Katia was looking like it might swing early and annoy Bermuda, but it's tracking further south than originally predicted, which means it's looking like it's going to graze the Caribbean at least.

The "discussions" on the storm page are particularly instructive if you can follow them.

The one I'm more worried about (I have a factory in DFW) and I'm sure Jimbeaux is staring at rather worriedly is the depression in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Jackleman]

Yeah, agreed that depression is a bit of a worry, let's hope it hits land before has time to build strength or just dissipate!

I see Katia has now been downgraded also, one to watch me thinks.

[Jimbeaux]

davepoth said:

Jackleman said:

Katia looks like a worry, she has formed quite a long way out giving her time to build strength, could she get up to an Cat 5? But the models are far from clear yet from what I can see.

As you have probably noticed from the NOAA website the forecasting only goes 5 days out and it's pretty vague at that point.

Katia was looking like it might swing early and annoy Bermuda, but it's tracking further south than originally predicted, which means it's looking like it's going to graze the Caribbean at least.

The "discussions" on the storm page are particularly instructive if you can follow them.

The one I'm more worried about (I have a factory in DFW) and I'm sure Jimbeaux is staring at rather worriedly is the depression in the Gulf of Mexico.

You are corrct sir; it is going to sit and rain on us all for a few days likely.....to the tune of 15-20 inches in some spots. Texas would like some rain due to wildfires. DFW will get rain but little to no wind concerns IMO. I spoke to a Texas countepart two days ago while in Austin, one of their fires is on a private ranch and is the size of the state of Delaware. The fire that is, the ranch is larger than Deleware.
ETA: The "discussions" section is very good but suffers from "geek speak" and requires close reading. I have several friends in the National Weather Service, top fellows all and fanatically dedicated. We are required to attend the 50 hour course at the National Hurricane Center in Miami (Florida International University)every four years. One leaves there with brain strain to say the least.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Friday 2nd September 00:21