Iranians shoot down US drone?

Author
Discussion

Badgerboy

1,783 posts

193 months

Thursday 8th December 2011
quotequote all
Ordinary_Chap said:
The report says the craft will attempt to land itself if it needs too and that would be my guess as to what happened.
You would think at a pre-determined airfield, if it indeed malfunctioned what are the chances of a smooth touchdown in what we can only assume could be any area of Iranian territory? Any un-prepared landing area would likely wreak havoc. I don't think the drones have the capability to pick out landing sites or airfields autonomously, just pre-programmed sites.

The gear is covered up in the images however.

Ordinary_Chap

7,520 posts

244 months

Thursday 8th December 2011
quotequote all
Badgerboy said:
Ordinary_Chap said:
The report says the craft will attempt to land itself if it needs too and that would be my guess as to what happened.
You would think at a pre-determined airfield, if it indeed malfunctioned what are the chances of a smooth touchdown in what we can only assume could be any area of Iranian territory? Any un-prepared landing area would likely wreak havoc. I don't think the drones have the capability to pick out landing sites or airfields autonomously, just pre-programmed sites.

The gear is covered up in the images however.
I think that makes sense although who knows what its setup to do.

So if it didn't land on its own then the only other thing to surmise is the Iranian's managed to get control of it somehow because the US pilots surely wouldn't land it in or near Iranian territory and it looks in good shape.

Talksteer

4,919 posts

234 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
jbi said:
Pesty said:
plus shot down and crashed? it looked in remarably good shape
that's the point... it wasn't shot down

Iranians claim "cyber warfare/ signal intercept and block"

American claim drone malfunction

Either way it landed smoothly and safely
If you apply Occam's razor to this:

The Iranians are claiming that they managed to cyber hack a drone system which (prior to it's crash) they have had no opportunity to inspect and thus no idea what communications equipment and software and systems it is running. That and the fact that it's most probably designed with 256 bit security to stop this happening make it somewhat unlikely that they managed to bring it down. It's not like hacking windows vista!

GPS jamming would have just made the aircraft go to INS and turn around for home, EMP or other sci-fi favourites would be unlikely to work on a EMP hardened piece of military kit.

What is far more likely is that the drone suffered mechanical failure or someone failed to put enough fuel in it. This could have resulted in the craft coming down straight and level, there are examples of aircraft landing after a pilot ejected relatively intact provided they came down on flat ground.

http://www.f-106deltadart.com/71fis_PilotlessLandi...

The fact that they are displaying it with cammo netting covering the bottom of it and some fairly poor looking shut lines on the wings indicates that it belly landed itself.

As far as compromising technology I can't help but think that given people have been aware of these issues since WWII that the CIA might have considered this. The airframe itself seams to be lacking a few stealth features, it could be coated with previously compromised RAM coating. The engine, under carriage and avionics are most likely off the shelf. I would also not be surprised if the cameras and sensors are also off the shelf.

The really snazzy stuff in military technology would be advanced radars, missile seekers, tactical communications systems and electronic counter measures equipment. This little aircraft will have had none of these.


drivin_me_nuts

17,949 posts

212 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
Engine, camera and some turn and steer stuff?

Badgerboy

1,783 posts

193 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
The optics will be the area of interest, as well as any hardware encryption devices. (I doubt they are using software)

However do remember, the standard Predator drones did not send their raw footage out encrypted. Taliban fighters were found with footage they simply pulled from the comm's satellite the UAV's were uploading to. (Laptop, a dish, and some software you can easily buy the internet. You could do this at home if you could get line of sight to the satellite)

I would like to think they have plugged this horrifically glaring hole by now, but up until recently it was pretty common knowledge. Now the flight comm's are something else, only a fool would use unencrypted links but whats to say something similar has been missed? The UAV's are typically loaded with a flight plan before flight, but they still retain the capability to take some form of manual control. (Typically it flies its entire flightplan automatically) It's certainly very unlikely, but so is a UAV making a relatively un-scathed landing in what we can only assume is rough terrain.

I dislike wild speculation, and it's possible the Iranians got very, very lucky, but there are some rather bizarre circumstances here.

Talksteer

4,919 posts

234 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
Badgerboy said:
The optics will be the area of interest, as well as any hardware encryption devices. (I doubt they are using software)

However do remember, the standard Predator drones did not send their raw footage out encrypted. Taliban fighters were found with footage they simply pulled from the comm's satellite the UAV's were uploading to. (Laptop, a dish, and some software you can easily buy the internet. You could do this at home if you could get line of sight to the satellite)

I would like to think they have plugged this horrifically glaring hole by now, but up until recently it was pretty common knowledge. Now the flight comm's are something else, only a fool would use unencrypted links but whats to say something similar has been missed? The UAV's are typically loaded with a flight plan before flight, but they still retain the capability to take some form of manual control. (Typically it flies its entire flightplan automatically) It's certainly very unlikely, but so is a UAV making a relatively un-scathed landing in what we can only assume is rough terrain.

I dislike wild speculation, and it's possible the Iranians got very, very lucky, but there are some rather bizarre circumstances here.
This:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/12/insurgents...

This wasn't the drone signal as such but the satellite signal. The ability to watch Sky without paying the subscription in noway leads to you being able to interrupt programming.

Interesting the person commenting later on the article about the possibility of the drone being hijacked is somewhat lacking in credibility given that he is on record saying that the Chinese/Russians will really want to see the engine.

The engine in this thing will be completely off the shelf and we currently send the Chinese and the Russians our most advanced engines all the time on civil aircraft. Military engines are very very rarely as advanced as civil ones.

hornet

6,333 posts

251 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
With aluminium headgear firmly in place, could this be a Trojan Horse? Let Iran think they have a current drone to divert attention from the stuff that's actually doing the work?

Jimbeaux

33,791 posts

232 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
The Pentagon confirmed that the drone on Iranian TV is indeed a US one. It is being reported that the military came to the President with three plans to either retrieve or destroy the unit, Obama turned them down. Whether this is a "trojan horse", just off the shelf tech, or the really good stuff is open for debate.

willmcc

758 posts

240 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
hornet said:
With aluminium headgear firmly in place, could this be a Trojan Horse? Let Iran think they have a current drone to divert attention from the stuff that's actually doing the work?
I can't see this at all, so much of what is happening is about public perception, no way would the US make themselves look so stupid and vulnerable deliberately, particularly on the run up to a possible attack on the nuclear installations.
I doubt whether they were able to take over the drone unless perhaps the Chinese helped them of course......

Fabric

3,819 posts

193 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
Talksteer said:
The fact that they are displaying it with cammo netting covering the bottom of it and some fairly poor looking shut lines on the wings indicates that it belly landed itself.
Been wondering what's behind that netting as well. Found some higher resolution pictures of it, and the shut lines on the wing's are leading me to believe it did actually land fairly hard after all, the right wing in particular looks like it's been completely sheared off and held back together with polyfill. I'm getting the feeling it was in a much worse condition when they recovered it, and they've spent the best part of this week sticking bits of it back together with duct tape.



http://theaviationist.com/2011/12/08/stealth-pix/

I'm incredibly sceptical the Iranians genuinely managed to breach the command and control feed on one of these things, however.


Badgerboy said:
The optics will be the area of interest, as well as any hardware encryption devices. (I doubt they are using software)
It's the software pertaining to the flight computers that are typically the most valuable non mechanical thing on a UAV of that scale, fortunately they're likely to have been wiped before the crash though (the typical "self destruct" feature on larger unmanned drones is as basic as wiping all the sensitive data from the flight systems, and pitching into a forced stall - gravity does the rest).

slartibartfast

4,014 posts

202 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
looking at the nose of the thing I doubt it's landed in a desert otherwise we'd see damage shirley.

Vipers

32,931 posts

229 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
So this mega buck drone not only got lost, but the self destruct failed, or did they forget to put one in? doh.

Scarey to think if they have a real drone, they could put a small neuke in it and send it back yikes




smile

CommanderJameson

22,096 posts

227 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
Vipers said:
So this mega buck drone not only got lost, but the self destruct failed, or did they forget to put one in? doh.

Scarey to think if they have a real drone, they could put a small neuke in it and send it back yikes




smile
That sounds like the hard way of doing it.

Much simpler to hand the nuke to a tribesman, tell him that his virgins are waiting if he only goes and stands over there for a bit, and then enjoy the show.

jmorgan

36,010 posts

285 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
Pesty said:
jmorgan said:
Looks more like a mock up knocked up.
thats what i thought. didnt look right.


plus shot down and crashed? it looked in remarably good shape
Not seen one close up myself, just that that looks a tad shonky. Maybe the way it arrived there is the reason.

Sam the Mut

774 posts

177 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
why is it in a gym and not a hanger?

PRTVR

7,136 posts

222 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
Sam the Mut said:
why is it in a gym and not a hanger?
To stop the Americans taking it out, no one is going to attack a school, where as an airbase is probably considered fair game.

Countdown

40,068 posts

197 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
Sam the Mut said:
why is it in a gym and not a hanger?
To stop the Americans taking it out, no one is going to attack a school, where as an airbase is probably considered fair game.
Why would an airbase be "fair game" ? The US messed up - strictly speaking they shouldn't have been flying drones over Iran's airspace in the first place. Why would they then exacerbate matters?

badgers_back

513 posts

187 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
Thats so fake

The might have some bits of one but that aint it

robmlufc

5,229 posts

187 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
badgers_back said:
Thats so fake

The might have some bits of one but that aint it
Looks about the right shape, colour, size. Only one dent in the left wing though? Underside might be a mess if the gear was down when it landed/crashed.

PRTVR

7,136 posts

222 months

Friday 9th December 2011
quotequote all
Countdown said:
PRTVR said:
Sam the Mut said:
why is it in a gym and not a hanger?
To stop the Americans taking it out, no one is going to attack a school, where as an airbase is probably considered fair game.
Why would an airbase be "fair game" ? The US messed up - strictly speaking they shouldn't have been flying drones over Iran's airspace in the first place. Why would they then exacerbate matters?
I Did say probably, until we get to know what what it was doing and I doubt we ever will,
how can we tell if it just lost control and ended up in Iran, it may have been patrolling the border area when it lost control and ended up in Iran,
but even if it was keeping an eye on the Iranians so what? they are not the most trusted Regime in the world,
As for exacerbating matters, I do think it would be hard to make relations between America and Iran any worse.smile