CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 9)

[grumbledoak]

Boringvolvodriver said:

And of course it will make all the difference in controlling the virus

All of the actions are not about controlling the virus but more about controlling the population

Ah well. "It's no biggie".

[cymatty]

JagLover said:

Oh goody

The government deciding which goods are "essential" or not for us. Also what work we want doing to our home is "essential"

Scotland only for now. Hopefully Boris doesn't copy

[JagLover]

cymatty said:

Scotland only for now. Hopefully Boris doesn't copy

Tomorrow's headlines

"Sturgeon shows the way while Boris dithers."

Article starts "Why does Boris want to kill granny?"

[Tony427]

jameswills said:

Gadgetmac said:

I watched an Immunology/Staistics professor on the TV last night (might have been newsnight but can't remember) who says that if vaccinations continue at the rate supposed come the end of March cases/hospitalisations/deaths will all drop off the cliff and we'll be in a much better place than we've been in since last February.

If that's true then restrictions will be lifted (probably partially at first) and employers will start calling employees back into work slowly.

So April is entirely do-able as being in a different world to where we currently are. I say doable but that's not guaranteed obvs. But I do feel Summer is looking good.

I sincerely hope you are right, but we have been here before and personally I am not very optimistic. My belief is that from April it will be tier 2 restrictions minimum carrying on throughout the summer and then you’re into the usual September uptick of respiratory disease again with mass testing still going on and we repeat again. Tier 2 is not an acceptable way of life for anyone and it certainly is not a viable way to run a business in the hospitality industry. Again I wish to be very wrong on that.

Given that by April we will have vaccinated the first most 4 vulnerable sections of society that are responsible for the vast majority of both hospitalisations and deaths it is highly likely that the rates of death and hospitalisatoons will drop off a cliff so to speak.

However infections will still be present in the non vaccinated and no doubt the govt will be testing anything that moves, repeatedly, to create a casedemic of people under 50 who dont know they have the disease, are not showing symptoms, don't have any vulnerable close contacts to infect if they did, and will not get ill in any event.

That is when the public will realise that the whole crisis is over and then will want to resume normal life. There will be no reason not to.

I cannot see any reason why this would not be wholeheartedly supported by a govt desperatly looking at the economy and trying to see a way out of the crap they have got themselves in.

[981C]

JagLover said:

Tomorrow's headlines

"Sturgeon shows the way while Boris dithers."

Article starts "Why does Boris want to kill granny?"

Sturgeon is doing a great job of killing granny right now by being ste at just about everything.

[JagLover]

Tony427 said:

That is when the public will realise that the whole crisis is over and then will want to resume normal life. There will be no reason not to.

I think you underestimate how much this has been driven by personal fear.

The public thinks the average age of death is 65 after all (according to the polling I saw) and no doubt there are many, otherwise in decent health, 30-60 year olds who are very concerned about catching this.

They have been partly driven into this state by the media and government messaging. The vulnerable might account for virtually all the deaths but even once they are vaccinated I doubt it will be over.

[Elysium]

Tony427 said:

jameswills said:

Gadgetmac said:

I watched an Immunology/Staistics professor on the TV last night (might have been newsnight but can't remember) who says that if vaccinations continue at the rate supposed come the end of March cases/hospitalisations/deaths will all drop off the cliff and we'll be in a much better place than we've been in since last February.

If that's true then restrictions will be lifted (probably partially at first) and employers will start calling employees back into work slowly.

So April is entirely do-able as being in a different world to where we currently are. I say doable but that's not guaranteed obvs. But I do feel Summer is looking good.

I sincerely hope you are right, but we have been here before and personally I am not very optimistic. My belief is that from April it will be tier 2 restrictions minimum carrying on throughout the summer and then you’re into the usual September uptick of respiratory disease again with mass testing still going on and we repeat again. Tier 2 is not an acceptable way of life for anyone and it certainly is not a viable way to run a business in the hospitality industry. Again I wish to be very wrong on that.

Given that by April we will have vaccinated the first most 4 vulnerable sections of society that are responsible for the vast majority of both hospitalisations and deaths it is highly likely that the rates of death and hospitalisatoons will drop off a cliff so to speak.

However infections will still be present in the non vaccinated and no doubt the govt will be testing anything that moves, repeatedly, to create a casedemic of people under 50 who dont know they have the disease, are not showing symptoms, don't have any vulnerable close contacts to infect if they did, and will not get ill in any event.

That is when the public will realise that the whole crisis is over and then will want to resume normal life. There will be no reason not to.

I cannot see any reason why this would not be wholeheartedly supported by a govt desperatly looking at the economy and trying to see a way out of the crap they have got themselves in.

It all depends what happens and how public opinion responds. If the vaccination programme is successful, cases plummet and hospitals empty out, there will be mass calls for restrictions to be lifted.

The zero COVID agitators will not give up, because they are obsessed with their mad experiment. So if deaths continue, which they will, they will try to use that to argue for more lockdown.

Our only hope is that the virus bugs out sufficiently for the sensible voices to win the debate.

We also need to watch what happens in other countries, because our Govt is st out of ideas and will copy them for safety.

[Alucidnation]

Jab and go at the supermarket!

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/19007420.as...

[Pupbelly]

There is a lot of talk that the virus will calm down as the weather warms up etc. which I kind of understand due to the Winter always being a cold & flu season, can someone explain why in places such as Florida where they always have high / warm temperatures their figures are running riot?

[isaldiri]

JagLover said:

December is a busier month than November for infections for the other Coronaviruses and we have no reason to think this is any different.

Also you are ignoring the effect of Tier restrictions which seem, when combined with an element of voluntary social distancing, to have been sufficient to stop infections increasing in the more favourable conditions of late October.

You also cannot simply say that if November is busier the peak is larger because every infection earlier on in the year is one less person to infect later and there is an element of it burning itself out in many areas.

Well November is also a busier month than October for respiratory illnesses and yet infections were flat or reducing. Tier3 might have stopped the north in oct but the se and London would just have had their outbreak start earlier than Dec after lockdown 2. You still would have the same problem as now but at a different time.

[Ntv]

jameswills said:

Gadgetmac said:

I watched an Immunology/Staistics professor on the TV last night (might have been newsnight but can't remember) who says that if vaccinations continue at the rate supposed come the end of March cases/hospitalisations/deaths will all drop off the cliff and we'll be in a much better place than we've been in since last February.

If that's true then restrictions will be lifted (probably partially at first) and employers will start calling employees back into work slowly.

So April is entirely do-able as being in a different world to where we currently are. I say doable but that's not guaranteed obvs. But I do feel Summer is looking good.

I sincerely hope you are right, but we have been here before and personally I am not very optimistic. My belief is that from April it will be tier 2 restrictions minimum carrying on throughout the summer and then you’re into the usual September uptick of respiratory disease again with mass testing still going on and we repeat again. Tier 2 is not an acceptable way of life for anyone and it certainly is not a viable way to run a business in the hospitality industry. Again I wish to be very wrong on that.

I'm optimistic about deaths and hospitalisations falling off a cliff and restrictions being lifted from March / April onwards

But we now have to start picking up the tab.

And that isn't a cause for optimism

[JohnnyJones]

Pupbelly said:

There is a lot of talk that the virus will calm down as the weather warms up etc. which I kind of understand due to the Winter always being a cold & flu season, can someone explain why in places such as Florida where they always have high / warm temperatures their figures are running riot?

Unhelpfully no, but I too thought it was odd that Iran was quite hard hit.

[75Black]

I'd be pissed off if I were a takeaway..or any food premises in Scotland for that matter. Spend thousands to make it "covid safe", wee Scottish dictator says it's still not enough, its all your fault for spreading the virus.

[isaldiri]

Pupbelly said:

There is a lot of talk that the virus will calm down as the weather warms up etc. which I kind of understand due to the Winter always being a cold & flu season, can someone explain why in places such as Florida where they always have high / warm temperatures their figures are running riot?

Human behaviour. Weather conditions affect that a lot but the virus still will transmit if there's enough sustained indoors contact whether in the tropics or temperate zones irrespective.

[JagLover]

Pupbelly said:

There is a lot of talk that the virus will calm down as the weather warms up etc. which I kind of understand due to the Winter always being a cold & flu season, can someone explain why in places such as Florida where they always have high / warm temperatures their figures are running riot?

There is a difference in seasonality in different climates.

Northern temperate has a predictable cycle peaking in December and January before falling away again in late Spring.

[markyb_lcy]

75Black said:

I'd be pissed off if I were a takeaway..or any food premises in Scotland for that matter. Spend thousands to make it "covid safe", wee Scottish dictator says it's still not enough, its all your fault for spreading the virus.

Just like pubs and restaurants in England. They really have drawn the short straw at every point.

Wouldn’t be quite so bad if the govt(s) could at least actually prove (evidence, anyone remember that?) shutting these places down makes a significant difference to hospitalisations and deaths. They can’t even do that.

[320d is all you need]

markyb_lcy said:

75Black said:

I'd be pissed off if I were a takeaway..or any food premises in Scotland for that matter. Spend thousands to make it "covid safe", wee Scottish dictator says it's still not enough, its all your fault for spreading the virus.

Just like pubs and restaurants in England. They really have drawn the short straw at every point.

Wouldn’t be quite so bad if the govt(s) could at least actually prove (evidence, anyone remember that?) shutting these places down makes a significant difference to hospitalisations and deaths. They can’t even do that.

Because they don't. It's just control. Wearing people down. Making people realise that their normal lives are over.

The question is why.

[75Black]

markyb_lcy said:

75Black said:

I'd be pissed off if I were a takeaway..or any food premises in Scotland for that matter. Spend thousands to make it "covid safe", wee Scottish dictator says it's still not enough, its all your fault for spreading the virus.

Just like pubs and restaurants in England. They really have drawn the short straw at every point.

Wouldn’t be quite so bad if the govt(s) could at least actually prove (evidence, anyone remember that?) shutting these places down makes a significant difference to hospitalisations and deaths. They can’t even do that.

It's not just that, but how is this: "Take-away services must operate from a serving hatch or doorway, no one can go inside a premise to collect food or drink" going to make any difference? Unless you're KFC/McD's etc with a drive thru, sure but what about the smaller Chinese/Indian etc.

[Gadgetmac]

Boringvolvodriver said:

cymatty said:

bbc said:

New restrictions from Saturday to limit click & collect services to essential items only
Takeaway services to be restricted, with takeaways permitted from serving hatches only. (Customers NOT allowed inside)
From Saturday - outdoor alcohol drinking will NOT be allowed in level four areas
There will be a legal obligation on employers to allow working from home
Requirement for only "essential" work taking place in a private home (e.g. by tradespeople) will be put into law

Scotland hurting sole traders again, wonder if they will give them cash,

And of course it will make all the difference in controlling the virus

All of the actions are not about controlling the virus but more about controlling the population

Indeed, you can only ever control the population in a pandemic.

[Tony427]

Elysium said:

It all depends what happens and how public opinion responds. If the vaccination programme is successful, cases plummet and hospitals empty out, there will be mass calls for restrictions to be lifted.

The zero COVID agitators will not give up, because they are obsessed with their mad experiment. So if deaths continue, which they will, they will try to use that to argue for more lockdown.

Our only hope is that the virus bugs out sufficiently for the sensible voices to win the debate.

We also need to watch what happens in other countries, because our Govt is st out of ideas and will copy them for safety.

Listening to Sadawi the vaccines minister this morning in front of the Commons Science Commitee he intimated that copying other countries may not be the case. Asked as to how quickly the vaccine roll out can accelerate he brought up the case of Isreal that has vaccinated the greatest % on its population of any country in the world. A govt depserate to achieve a fast roll out would one think borrow their policy to achieve that. However, isreal have operated a "first come first served" policy which disadvantages both the elderley and vulnerable, the very epople driving death and hospitalisations. Our govts response was to target the most vulnerable first, ignoring the least vulnerable, thus being more effective at reducing hospitalisations and deaths.

I happen to think our govt's response is correct but it seems its the only thing they have got right in this whole debacle.