CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 16)
Discussion
isaldiri said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
So this biostatistics professor is publicly suggesting, based on the "early results", than it could be x6 more transmissible than delta. They claim R value for delta is 6-8 so that makes the R0 for this variant 36-48... so we are beyond twice the level of measles.... pretty sure we should be able to do better than that before the end of the day ....
I suppose if you are going to try and use this as an opportunity to grow your twitter followers, you might as well go all in.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/14640696431...
I suppose if you are going to try and use this as an opportunity to grow your twitter followers, you might as well go all in.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/14640696431...
This is quite epic. There I was thinking I was being a little optimistic with R0 of ~20.
Well as the saying goes, if you tell a lie big enough and often enough.......
The latest circus would be more believable if we hadn't seen the exact same s
t before. You can't cry wolf too many times especially if each time you claim the wolf is bigger and nastier than the last.EddieSteadyGo said:
So this biostatistics professor is publicly suggesting, based on the "early results", than it could be x6 more transmissible than delta. They claim R value for delta is 6-8 so that makes the R0 for this variant 36-48... so we are beyond twice the level of measles.... pretty sure we should be able to do better than that before the end of the day ....
I suppose if you are going to try and use this as an opportunity to grow your twitter followers, you might as well go all in.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/14640696431...
Wait until we get to the 'omega' variant. It has an R0 of infinity because by means of a quantum mechanical resonance it instantaneously tunnels into everybody and in short order transforms 50% of their biomass into virus particles ...I suppose if you are going to try and use this as an opportunity to grow your twitter followers, you might as well go all in.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/14640696431...
Amazing amount of panic stories around. Politicians coming out with statements based on massive extrapolation rather than even a hint of evidence, to the point where they're substituting their own beliefs for the few facts that do exist.
All while 'could', 'might' and 'possibility' are doing some really heavy lifting - take the worst case, promote it like it's actually happening, then when it doesn't pretend you were misinterpreted.
All while 'could', 'might' and 'possibility' are doing some really heavy lifting - take the worst case, promote it like it's actually happening, then when it doesn't pretend you were misinterpreted.
pquinn said:
Amazing amount of panic stories around. Politicians coming out with statements based on massive extrapolation rather than even a hint of evidence, to the point where they're substituting their own beliefs for the few facts that do exist.
All while 'could', 'might' and 'possibility' are doing some really heavy lifting - take the worst case, promote it like it's actually happening, then when it doesn't pretend you were misinterpreted.
Could one be forgiven fir thinking that our government want an excuse to implement Plan B or worse? All while 'could', 'might' and 'possibility' are doing some really heavy lifting - take the worst case, promote it like it's actually happening, then when it doesn't pretend you were misinterpreted.
isaldiri said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
So this biostatistics professor is publicly suggesting, based on the "early results", than it could be x6 more transmissible than delta. They claim R value for delta is 6-8 so that makes the R0 for this variant 36-48... so we are beyond twice the level of measles.... pretty sure we should be able to do better than that before the end of the day ....
I suppose if you are going to try and use this as an opportunity to grow your twitter followers, you might as well go all in.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/14640696431...
I suppose if you are going to try and use this as an opportunity to grow your twitter followers, you might as well go all in.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/14640696431...
This is quite epic. There I was thinking I was being a little optimistic with R0 of ~20.
Well as the saying goes, if you tell a lie big enough and often enough.......
1. Attempts to suppress 'wild type' result in Alpha
2. Attempts to suppress 'Alpha' result in Delta
3. Attempts to suppress 'Delta' result in Nu
I am beginning to think that permanently changing human behavior to try to eradicate a virus may not actually work.
The problem is that most people who were scared of coronavirus aren't anymore, everyone knows someone who's had it, its more like flu or norovirus now in the popular perception. So trying to whip up concern or better still make political capital from proactive response isn't going to be as easy.
I still can't believe the Welsh are persisting with mask wearing, goodness knows how long they'll keep that up. I'm not anti mask as such but figures for case numbers are no better there than England which would imply it isn't achieving a great deal.
I still can't believe the Welsh are persisting with mask wearing, goodness knows how long they'll keep that up. I'm not anti mask as such but figures for case numbers are no better there than England which would imply it isn't achieving a great deal.
Elysium said:
Setting aside the aburdity of these R0 estimates we do seem to have a trend here:
1. Attempts to suppress 'wild type' result in Alpha
2. Attempts to suppress 'Alpha' result in Delta
3. Attempts to suppress 'Delta' result in Nu
I am beginning to think that permanently changing human behavior to try to eradicate a virus may not actually work.
Like playing whack-a-mole you can never win the game. 1. Attempts to suppress 'wild type' result in Alpha
2. Attempts to suppress 'Alpha' result in Delta
3. Attempts to suppress 'Delta' result in Nu
I am beginning to think that permanently changing human behavior to try to eradicate a virus may not actually work.
Elysium said:
<edited for brevity>
I am beginning to think that permanently changing human behavior to try to eradicate a virus may not actually work.
How very dare you, Elysium. Are you seriously suggesting that various governments do not have the power to control nature? Heretic! I am beginning to think that permanently changing human behavior to try to eradicate a virus may not actually work.
I look forward to Team Boris banning, I dunno, eating pork on a Tuesday. Unless wearing shoes. And in England only.
And we all know, don't we, that complying with the rules has ended Covid for good. Oh, wait a minute...........
Misanthrope said:
Wait until we get to the 'omega' variant. It has an R0 of infinity because by means of a quantum mechanical resonance it instantaneously tunnels into everybody and in short order transforms 50% of their biomass into virus particles ...
If its the 24 valve MV6 variant it's really going to fly!EddieSteadyGo said:
<edit for brevity>
At the moment, they are only talking about the transmissibility - I don't think there is any data yet on the virulence.
Indeed. But isn't the "Nu" variant doing what viruses are supposed to? That is, being more transmissible in order to outcompete the prevalent strain (i.e. Delta), whilst being less deadly? Weren't we told all along that the virus will mutate to become endemic but causing no more harm than the common cold?At the moment, they are only talking about the transmissibility - I don't think there is any data yet on the virulence.
In other words, why are the 'experts' panicking about something they said was bound to happen anyway? Perhaps they're just doom mongers who prefer to focus on a worst case scenario. I mean, we've seen that before, have we not?
Boringvolvodriver said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Not read that the WHO are likely to call the new variant Nu as in the 13the letter of the Greek alphabet then?And do you not think that MrRNA may be a result of auto spell at all?
This is comedy gold. The pompous doctor submits a post accusing others of being cretins, yet can't get "i.e." or "mix up" or "becomes" correct.Then shows his ignorance of why the new variant is called "Nu"; something you'd imagine a real doctor would know.
I'm eagerly awaiting his next post.
Brave Fart said:
Indeed. But isn't the "Nu" variant doing what viruses are supposed to? That is, being more transmissible in order to outcompete the prevalent strain (i.e. Delta), whilst being less deadly? Weren't we told all along that the virus will mutate to become endemic but causing no more harm than the common cold?
Actually it isn't known if it's more transmissible. Simply that it was a combination of spike mutations that in other variants have variously been thought to be more virulent/transmissible/immunity evading etc. No one for now has a damn clue what the exact combination of mutations may or may not do.If I may though, it wasn't a given the virus would necessarily mutate to be endemic and cause less harm. It would always mutate to find an easier path of transmission but beyond that....not obvious it was always going to be less severe.
It was however almost certain that reinfection would mean subsequent infection was going to be less severe (well up to the point that age starts affecting one's immune response) and effective endemicity was going to be achieved that way.
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