The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
I love these threads, so educational. You always have a specialist at hand, it doesn't matter if it's NHS budget or lamb farming in Wales, you have someone at hand to explain intricacies and why this time the Occam's Razor should be ignored. Most often than not, those are the same people.
I mean, what do people who actually know what they are talking about know; fullfact; eh, they are twisting things. National Farmers Union; what do they know about farming, eh? Even Welsh farmers themselves, who were counting on 'continued support' and Gove's 'of course there will be FTA' are now fearful for the future.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/farming/aske...
Love it.
ETA : WOL link.
I mean, what do people who actually know what they are talking about know; fullfact; eh, they are twisting things. National Farmers Union; what do they know about farming, eh? Even Welsh farmers themselves, who were counting on 'continued support' and Gove's 'of course there will be FTA' are now fearful for the future.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/farming/aske...
Love it.
ETA : WOL link.
Edited by jjlynn27 on Friday 27th October 10:27
wc98 said:
currently the cap appears to be driving smaller farmers out of business ,larger landowners buying up thier land and much of it sitting idle in certain areas. subsidy farming if you like.
It will be very interesting to see how small scale farms handle being out side of CapCap has encouraged smaller farms and slowed down the trend of super size farms in europe
NZ average farm size 252 hectares http://beeflambnz.com/knowledge-hub/factsheets/com...
UK average farm size 81 hectares http://www.fwi.co.uk/news/7-of-the-biggest-farms-i...
european average 16.1 hectares http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/...
North America 186 hectares http://www.globalagriculture.org/report-topics/ind...
I also think comparisons with NZ are not accurate when discussing post brexit UK agriculture
i think we can look forward to as cap(or what ever we call farming subsidies ) decline in the UK after brexit is larger and larger farm sizes as the small guys go under our countryside will change as a result of brexit
wc98 said:
looks to me the bloke that wrote the article started of with the same ignorant prejudice you have. i find it hard to believe you still fail to grasp the political and bureaucratic entity that is the eu has absolutely no money of its own, none, nada. it is recipient and distributor (after subtracting its own largesse ) of other peoples money.
you along with a few others seem to think that when we leave many things will just stop happening, like international agreement on air traffic movement ,transfer of goods between european countries , subsidies for all sorts of things. this position appears more than a bit dim.
currently the cap appears to be driving smaller farmers out of business ,larger landowners buying up thier land and much of it sitting idle in certain areas. subsidy farming if you like.
i trust you will approve of the source.
There were two proposals for limiting handouts to the super-rich, known as capping and degressivity. Capping means that no one should receive more than a certain amount: the proposed limit was €300,000 (£250,000) a year. Degressivity means that beyond a certain point the rate received per hectare begins to fall. This was supposed to have kicked in at €150,000. The UK's environment secretary, Owen Paterson, knocked both proposals down.
When our government says "we must help the farmers", it means "we must help the 0.1%". Most of the land here is owned by exceedingly wealthy people. Some of them are millionaires from elsewhere: sheikhs, oligarchs and mining magnates who own vast estates in this country. Although they might pay no taxes in the UK, they receive millions in farm subsidies. They are the world's most successful benefit tourists. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jul...
Ignorant prejudice?you along with a few others seem to think that when we leave many things will just stop happening, like international agreement on air traffic movement ,transfer of goods between european countries , subsidies for all sorts of things. this position appears more than a bit dim.
currently the cap appears to be driving smaller farmers out of business ,larger landowners buying up thier land and much of it sitting idle in certain areas. subsidy farming if you like.
i trust you will approve of the source.
There were two proposals for limiting handouts to the super-rich, known as capping and degressivity. Capping means that no one should receive more than a certain amount: the proposed limit was €300,000 (£250,000) a year. Degressivity means that beyond a certain point the rate received per hectare begins to fall. This was supposed to have kicked in at €150,000. The UK's environment secretary, Owen Paterson, knocked both proposals down.
When our government says "we must help the farmers", it means "we must help the 0.1%". Most of the land here is owned by exceedingly wealthy people. Some of them are millionaires from elsewhere: sheikhs, oligarchs and mining magnates who own vast estates in this country. Although they might pay no taxes in the UK, they receive millions in farm subsidies. They are the world's most successful benefit tourists. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jul...
Dim?
This Owen Patterson, is he in the evil EU? We’ll be rid of him will we?
If you read the NFU link they are clear the CAP payment is key - wailing oh but its decided by the EU so it must be bad is an interesting look but it is not me who looks blinkered.
Interesting also that the NFU insist that CAP payments remain the same etc. - I fear many will be rather disappointed when the Govt gets direct control of the levers - expect cuts, cuts and more cuts.
I’m not defending CAP as such, but the blind hatred of it is amusing.
jjlynn27 said:
I love these threads, so educational. You always have a specialist at hand, it doesn't matter if it's NHS budget or lamb farming in Wales, you have someone at hand to explain intricacies and why this time the Occam's Razor should be ignored. Most often than not, those are the same people.
I mean, what do people who actually know what they are talking about know; fullfact; eh, they are twisting things. National Farmers Union; what do they know about farming, eh? Even Welsh farmers themselves, who were counting on 'continued support' and Gove's 'of course there will be FTA' are now fearful for the future.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/farming/aske...
Oh, you are so kind, coming to ///adj's rescue. And jumping through the same hoops to do so.I mean, what do people who actually know what they are talking about know; fullfact; eh, they are twisting things. National Farmers Union; what do they know about farming, eh? Even Welsh farmers themselves, who were counting on 'continued support' and Gove's 'of course there will be FTA' are now fearful for the future.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/farming/aske...
I don't think anyone here is disagreeing with the facts - farming is a punishing business with precarious finances and highly dependent on state support. What is amusing is that two groups of people can read the same statements and come to diametrically opposed conclusions. It appears that //adj and now you are both arguing that the need for state support means it must come from the EU, and the fact that untangling EU support is difficult means... it must come from the EU, and the fact that farmers are asking for help means... yep, more EU again.
It's not a question of being an expert (though I know you put huge store on such epithets), it's a question of reasoning. When X and Y happens together, it does not mean that X requires Y.
Tuna said:
Oh, you are so kind, coming to ///adj's rescue. And jumping through the same hoops to do so.
I don't think anyone here is disagreeing with the facts - farming is a punishing business with precarious finances and highly dependent on state support. What is amusing is that two groups of people can read the same statements and come to diametrically opposed conclusions. It appears that //adj and now you are both arguing that the need for state support means it must come from the EU, and the fact that untangling EU support is difficult means... it must come from the EU, and the fact that farmers are asking for help means... yep, more EU again.
It's not a question of being an expert (though I know you put huge store on such epithets), it's a question of reasoning. When X and Y happens together, it does not mean that X requires Y.
No one has said we need CAP hence need the EU.I don't think anyone here is disagreeing with the facts - farming is a punishing business with precarious finances and highly dependent on state support. What is amusing is that two groups of people can read the same statements and come to diametrically opposed conclusions. It appears that //adj and now you are both arguing that the need for state support means it must come from the EU, and the fact that untangling EU support is difficult means... it must come from the EU, and the fact that farmers are asking for help means... yep, more EU again.
It's not a question of being an expert (though I know you put huge store on such epithets), it's a question of reasoning. When X and Y happens together, it does not mean that X requires Y.
The suggestion you made was that CAP was totally wrong and an EU mess up.
The NFU piece says it is vital that broadly the same money goes to the same farms.
Hence this is - whether you can stomach admitting it - saying that the EU CAP is effective at helping our farms - indeed it is essential to survive volatility in their own words, and they want the same to continue at the same funding levels.
Some are so keen to curse the EU it seems you don’t even look at the basics before bashing the keyboard.
A case in point is the poster above saying others are “dim” whilst linking an article that shows the EU were trying to make CAP fairer to small farms but it was blocked by UK MP Owen Patterson. This is a logical fail on several levels and it difficult to know where to start. It seems to unlikely the poster will even see how daft their post was.
The sad thing is these are it seems your best arguments for quitting the EU and they are frankly left rather wanting.. Leaving the EU for reasons that even the most cursory analysis blows holes in the Farage EU-hating-for-the-easily-led reasoning.
Another debunked! Still who needs experts like the NFU. Traitors!!
///ajd said:
Ignorant prejudice?
Dim?
This Owen Patterson, is he in the evil EU? We’ll be rid of him will we?
If you read the NFU link they are clear the CAP payment is key - wailing oh but its decided by the EU so it must be bad is an interesting look but it is not me who looks blinkered.
Interesting also that the NFU insist that CAP payments remain the same etc. - I fear many will be rather disappointed when the Govt gets direct control of the levers - expect cuts, cuts and more cuts.
I’m not defending CAP as such, but the blind hatred of it is amusing.
i am neither defending cap nor suggesting it is unnecessary .i am saying that its current form has driven farming in a particular direction that is to the benefit of the few ,as per usual .Dim?
This Owen Patterson, is he in the evil EU? We’ll be rid of him will we?
If you read the NFU link they are clear the CAP payment is key - wailing oh but its decided by the EU so it must be bad is an interesting look but it is not me who looks blinkered.
Interesting also that the NFU insist that CAP payments remain the same etc. - I fear many will be rather disappointed when the Govt gets direct control of the levers - expect cuts, cuts and more cuts.
I’m not defending CAP as such, but the blind hatred of it is amusing.
yes our home grown politicians are just as bad as the eu lot. getting rid of the eu lot from a uk perspective cuts out a bit of the cancer. once we have physically left the eu we should be able to deal with the reduced number of those politicians closer to home. at the very least we can get shot of them far more easily than we can those further afield.
wc98 said:
i am neither defending cap nor suggesting it is unnecessary .i am saying that its current form has driven farming in a particular direction that is to the benefit of the few ,as per usual .
yes our home grown politicians are just as bad as the eu lot. getting rid of the eu lot from a uk perspective cuts out a bit of the cancer. once we have physically left the eu we should be able to deal with the reduced number of those politicians closer to home. at the very least we can get shot of them far more easily than we can those further afield.
How are you going to “deal” with Owen Patterson?yes our home grown politicians are just as bad as the eu lot. getting rid of the eu lot from a uk perspective cuts out a bit of the cancer. once we have physically left the eu we should be able to deal with the reduced number of those politicians closer to home. at the very least we can get shot of them far more easily than we can those further afield.
Didn’t think you’d see how daft it was.
///ajd said:
The sad thing is these are it seems your best arguments for quitting the EU and they are frankly left rather wanting..
Woah. Stop right there. I'm not arguing for quitting the EU.You brought up Wales and suggested that this was an area that the EU was a net positive, specifically with reference to European support for the region.
I said (I think pretty much first sentence) that it was an irrelevance. It's a poor justification for Remain and a misunderstanding of the position of the people who actually receive those subsidies. You had co-opted their case to boost your position and I don't think that bears scrutiny.
That doesn't mean I'm using Wales as a justification for Brexit. It just means I don't think you can use Wales as a justification for Remain.
Digga said:
Well, the waters of the "Remain with what" question just got a little murkier with the news from Catalonia this afternoon. Whichever side of the Brexit debate you are on, the forces working to break up the empire of the EU are hard to ignore.
Could this not suit the EU..........say 40 smaller (less powerful) members rather than 27 larger?Tuna said:
What it is is nonsensical misuse of statistics. Wales is a relatively underpopulated, relatively rural community - so yes, farming subsidies constitute a fairly high proportion of the balance. And yet that rural community voted leave. You know why? Because the EU CAP is widely regarded as being hugely damaging for small rural landowners and farmers. So a population that has more direct experience of EU intervention than most wants to leave. Is that an inconvenient fact for you?
Funny Tuna, in this post you were telling us all exactly what the reasons they voted leave were - and how damaging the CAP was and how the rural welsh all know all about it, like you do, and how experts like the Farmers Union views can be dismissed as they know nothing about it or their members - the article about the motives is clearly just metro elite lies and they didn’t really do a survey for a year as to why those in the valleys voted leave. Presumably the Farmers Union are leftie metro elite too.Edited by Tuna on Thursday 26th October 23:50
For someone (if I recall correctly, I maybe mistaken) who is a reformed remain voter who now just wants to get behind brexit you have some interestingly strong views on some subjects.
Stating that the Welsh public gets more from the EU than it pays in tax is not a misuse of stats, its a bloody fact! It is true that this doesn’t apply to the rest of the UK which is why it is relevant. Hand that feeds applies and yet few seem to recognise that (by their own words/admission).
Brexit triggers a round of reshoring; this is where it gets good for Britain....
https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21730479-fi...
https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21730479-fi...
steveT350C said:
Brexit triggers a round of reshoring; this is where it gets good for Britain....
https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21730479-fi...
How on earth did that get past the editor?https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21730479-fi...
steveT350C said:
Brexit triggers a round of reshoring; this is where it gets good for Britain....
https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21730479-fi...
The main weakness with reshoring is that the home based supplier starts to take the piss with pricing.https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21730479-fi...
We moved hundreds of tonnes of chipboard supply from Europe to UK mills. We started buying small quantities again from Belgium last month after successive UK price hikes.
///ajd said:
Funny Tuna, in this post you were telling us all exactly what the reasons they voted leave were - and how damaging the CAP was and how the rural welsh all know all about it, like you do, and how experts like the Farmers Union views can be dismissed as they know nothing about it or their members - the article about the motives is clearly just metro elite lies and they didn’t really do a survey for a year as to why those in the valleys voted leave. Presumably the Farmers Union are leftie metro elite too.
For someone (if I recall correctly, I maybe mistaken) who is a reformed remain voter who now just wants to get behind brexit you have some interestingly strong views on some subjects.
Stating that the Welsh public gets more from the EU than it pays in tax is not a misuse of stats, its a bloody fact! It is true that this doesn’t apply to the rest of the UK which is why it is relevant. Hand that feeds applies and yet few seem to recognise that (by their own words/admission).
For someone (if I recall correctly, I maybe mistaken) who is a reformed remain voter who now just wants to get behind brexit you have some interestingly strong views on some subjects.
Stating that the Welsh public gets more from the EU than it pays in tax is not a misuse of stats, its a bloody fact! It is true that this doesn’t apply to the rest of the UK which is why it is relevant. Hand that feeds applies and yet few seem to recognise that (by their own words/admission).
Maybe they've realised that most of what they get from the EU comes from the UK in the first place?
Tuna said:
jjlynn27 said:
I love these threads, so educational. You always have a specialist at hand, it doesn't matter if it's NHS budget or lamb farming in Wales, you have someone at hand to explain intricacies and why this time the Occam's Razor should be ignored. Most often than not, those are the same people.
I mean, what do people who actually know what they are talking about know; fullfact; eh, they are twisting things. National Farmers Union; what do they know about farming, eh? Even Welsh farmers themselves, who were counting on 'continued support' and Gove's 'of course there will be FTA' are now fearful for the future.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/farming/aske...
Oh, you are so kind.I mean, what do people who actually know what they are talking about know; fullfact; eh, they are twisting things. National Farmers Union; what do they know about farming, eh? Even Welsh farmers themselves, who were counting on 'continued support' and Gove's 'of course there will be FTA' are now fearful for the future.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/farming/aske...
tuna said:
I don't think anyone here is disagreeing with the facts - farming is a punishing business with precarious finances and highly dependent on state support. What is amusing is that two groups of people can read the same statements and come to diametrically opposed conclusions. It appears that //adj and now you are both arguing that the need for state support means it must come from the EU, and the fact that untangling EU support is difficult means... it must come from the EU, and the fact that farmers are asking for help means... yep, more EU again.
It's nothing to do with 'amusing'. You are desperately trying to find modus in which you know better than factcheck, NFU and welsh farmers themselves. Some would say that those blinkers are too tight on, but I'm kind, so I'm not going to do that. Tuna said:
It's not a question of being an expert (though I know you put huge store on such epithets), it's a question of reasoning.
. Of course, it's not the question of being an expert, who needs them. (c) Gove & Co. Yes, unlike you I don't pretend to know everything about everything. The question of reasoning, the good old 'common sense' (c) Farage & Co. Now when you are done with your little dance, the facts remain the same. Those farmers are petrified, as they are now facing 'wtf, where are the subsidies going to come from', and 'oh f
k, we had access to a protected market, and now we are going to compete with NZ where the sheer economies of scale are going to decimate us.'
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