The 'No to the EU' campaign Vol 2

The 'No to the EU' campaign Vol 2

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Discussion

Jockman

17,933 posts

162 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
FiF said:
hidetheelephants said:
Jockman said:
May's position on EU Nationals has been repeatedly explained on here and repeatedly ignored.
Her position is that she has no position, leaving a vacuum into which the remain media are gleefully pouring FUD, scaring any EU migrant they can persuade to submit to a camera or microphone with lurid tales of deportation once brexit arrives. A declaration that any EU migrants resident in the UK before the referendum will have indefinite leave to remain could have headed all that off and made her look slightly less gorgon-like.
Must admit the claim that her position has been repeatedly explained on here and repeatedly ignored came as a bit of a surprise. Obviously one cannot read every post on such a fast moving thread but even so.

Anyway, as above it just leaves an opportunity for Remain media to swoop in with more sour bile in the hope of persuading that the result was somehow wrong, and leaves people very unsettled. So they start stirring up unrest amongst each other, with the usual suspects sticking wooden spoons in willy nilly.
There is a thread about the Tory Leadership which contains numerous references to her position.

Her position is to secure EU National rights once this has been secured for British Nationals. This is a prudent approach and I would hope it gets resolved quickly to allay people's fears.

I agree that the Remain media will exploit this position.

Tony427

2,873 posts

235 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
In other EU news it looks like Hungary will be voting in a referendum asking the population their views on the enforced rehoming of Refugees in Hungary to which the Pro Eu President is against( he's looking for a bargaining position against the EU) and Austria will be having another Presidential vote as the original vote, which saw the pro EU Green canditate win by a hairsbreadth, seemed to have been fiddled somewhat.

The Anti EU Nationalist candidate has already said that if he wins, and after Brexit thats a more likely result than previously thought, he will be asking for |referendum on EU membership in Austria.

The cracks are appearing already.

How long before the Dutch also call for their own referendum?

Of course all these people, of these nations are completely misguided and have been lied to by the Boris and Nigel tag team.

Oh, hang on a minute........

Cheers,

Tony






anonymous-user

56 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
el stovey said:
"The job to do" is the fudge that keeps us in the EU perhaps in all but name.

This is what she said about Brexit in full.

http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04...

There is no way she is going to lead the UK out of the EU.
That is a well argued speech. It's a shame it didn't have a wider circulation pre-vote.

don4l

10,058 posts

178 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
Lots of things changed on June 23rd.


Jockman

17,933 posts

162 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
Tony427 said:
The Anti EU Nationalist candidate has already said that if he wins, and after Brexit thats a more likely result than previously thought, he will be asking for |referendum on EU membership in Austria.
Or people get scared by the brexit vote.....could go either way Tony.

Tony427 said:
How long before the Dutch also call for their own referendum?
IIRC the Netherlands has an election in March?

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

111 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
el stovey said:
As it looks like Teresa may is a massive favourite to be the next PM, do people really think Brexit will even happen?

Imagine you become PM and you're firmly against leaving and nobody around you in government wants to leave, people in your most important industries like financial services are against leaving. There is no plan for Brexit whatsoever and its architects have vanished after unexpectedly winning. Are you really going to take the UK out of the EU. Of course you won't, you'll do what you think is best for the country.

On the leave side there is a small majority of the population, some of which just wanted to stick their fingers up at the establishment, some regret their decision, feeling they were lied to.

There is no effective opposition to hold the government accountable (they wanted to remain anyway) and the media aparently also sitting with you in the remain camp. There is no widespread appetite for leaving or optimism towards Brexit whatsoever. I don't think it will happen or what does happen will not resemble what anyone thought Brexit actual meant.
El,

I voted remain, but imo, I think you are seeing something that's just not there. T May is not a zealot either way. She's politician. Not invoking a50, after all the promises, will be political suicide, not just for her, but for Tory party as well.
Even if she wanted to do a the biggest U-Turn in recent political history, there is just no appetite on the continent to keep UK in. I hope they are getting negotiating teams ready, and focusing their efforts on pragmatic solutions.

marcosgt

11,034 posts

178 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
Lots of things changed on June 23rd.

Some selective quoting there I think.

Numerous EU leaders have suggested leaving will be punitive for the UK...

M

Axionknight

8,505 posts

137 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
Lots of things changed on June 23rd.

FTSE250 is still below pre vote levels, I believe.

anonymous-user

56 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
Axionknight said:
FTSE250 is still below pre vote levels, I believe.
Only by 8.5% or so. What's that between friends?

(Answer: quite a lot. Think Carney used the right expression yesterday: "risks are beginning to crystallise". We are a long way yet from seeing the bumps in the road, let alone getting over them).

turbobloke

104,528 posts

262 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
marcosgt said:
Numerous EU leaders have suggested leaving will be punitive for the UK...

M
Was that 'EU leaders have suggested' in the same way Schauble suggested certain things because Osborne asked him to?

If Osborne or Cameron put them up to it during Project End Of The Universe, it's complete nonsense. If not then it's EU nonsense, after all what else would they say when there's a queue forming at the door of their blessed but ailing project (Nexit, Denexit, Swexit, Czechout).


It's revealing that no timescale is given nor any detail as to how, it's just armwaving and scaremongering. Short-term there will be some downs but this is for keeps not just for Christmas.

don4l

10,058 posts

178 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
Axionknight said:
don4l said:
Lots of things changed on June 23rd.

FTSE250 is still below pre vote levels, I believe.
You think that the FTSE250 is more important than the FTSE100?

Weird!

turbobloke

104,528 posts

262 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
boxxob said:
Greg66 said:
Axionknight said:
FTSE250 is still below pre vote levels, I believe.
Only by 8.5% or so. What's that between friends?

(Answer: quite a lot. Think Carney used the right expression yesterday: "risks are beginning to crystallise". We are a long way yet from seeing the bumps in the road, let alone getting over them).
yes, but to use the sterling 'plunge' headline grabbing format: it hasn't been this low since February 2016...

ergh..doesn't quite have the same impact.
Feb 2016, was that when a drunker Juncker french-kissed national leaders? That would be enough to unsettle the horses never mind the markets.

don4l

10,058 posts

178 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
Greg66 said:
Axionknight said:
FTSE250 is still below pre vote levels, I believe.
Only by 8.5% or so. What's that between friends?

(Answer: quite a lot. Think Carney used the right expression yesterday: "risks are beginning to crystallise". We are a long way yet from seeing the bumps in the road, let alone getting over them).
How do you get 8.5%?

Did you just make it up in the hope that nobody actually knows the real figure?


Axionknight

8,505 posts

137 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
Axionknight said:
don4l said:
Lots of things changed on June 23rd.

FTSE250 is still below pre vote levels, I believe.
You think that the FTSE250 is more important than the FTSE100?

Weird!
Show me where I wrote that confused

turbobloke

104,528 posts

262 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
Axionknight said:
don4l said:
Lots of things changed on June 23rd.

FTSE250 is still below pre vote levels, I believe.
You think that the FTSE250 is more important than the FTSE100?

Weird!
People claim it is due to having smaller and more domestic-focused companies. This trivialises to a degree the reason companies in FTSE 100 are listed in that index.

Not that Axionknight said it was more/less important smile


Edited by turbobloke on Wednesday 6th July 10:34

anonymous-user

56 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
Greg66 said:
Axionknight said:
FTSE250 is still below pre vote levels, I believe.
Only by 8.5% or so. What's that between friends?

(Answer: quite a lot. Think Carney used the right expression yesterday: "risks are beginning to crystallise". We are a long way yet from seeing the bumps in the road, let alone getting over them).
How do you get 8.5%?

Did you just make it up in the hope that nobody actually knows the real figure?
I used data, eyeball mark 1, and the power of arithmetic.

From March 2016 the FTSE 250 has sat around 17,000, generally +/-200 points or so.

It's now around 15,500.

17,000-15,500 = 1500.

(1500/17000)*100 = 8.8. Rounded to 8.5%





markh1973

1,881 posts

170 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
Greg66 said:
don4l said:
Greg66 said:
Axionknight said:
FTSE250 is still below pre vote levels, I believe.
Only by 8.5% or so. What's that between friends?

(Answer: quite a lot. Think Carney used the right expression yesterday: "risks are beginning to crystallise". We are a long way yet from seeing the bumps in the road, let alone getting over them).
How do you get 8.5%?

Did you just make it up in the hope that nobody actually knows the real figure?
I used data, eyeball mark 1, and the power of arithmetic.

From March 2016 the FTSE 250 has sat around 17,000, generally +/-200 points or so.

It's now around 15,500.

17,000-15,500 = 1500.

(1500/17000)*100 = 8.8. Rounded to 8.5%
And if Don4l would rather be more accurate:

- level on 23 June: 17333
- level at 10.25am today: 15540

therefore a fall of 10.34%.

Sam All

3,101 posts

103 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
Greg66 said:
don4l said:
Greg66 said:
Axionknight said:
FTSE250 is still below pre vote levels, I believe.
Only by 8.5% or so. What's that between friends?

(Answer: quite a lot. Think Carney used the right expression yesterday: "risks are beginning to crystallise". We are a long way yet from seeing the bumps in the road, let alone getting over them).
How do you get 8.5%?

Did you just make it up in the hope that nobody actually knows the real figure?
I used data, eyeball mark 1, and the power of arithmetic.

From March 2016 the FTSE 250 has sat around 17,000, generally +/-200 points or so.

It's now around 15,500.

17,000-15,500 = 1500.

(1500/17000)*100 = 8.8. Rounded to 8.5%
That's pretty modest after such a big decision. You might want to look to see where the index was in late January 2016 - pre Brexit and all that. Rounding will not be necessary.

turbobloke

104,528 posts

262 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
markh1973 said:
And if Don4l would rather be more accurate:

- level on 23 June: 17333
- level at 10.25am today: 15540

therefore a fall of 10.34%.
- level on 11 Feb: 15178

That was lower than today but there was no wailing at the time.

anonymous-user

56 months

Wednesday 6th July 2016
quotequote all
Sam All said:
Greg66 said:
don4l said:
Greg66 said:
Axionknight said:
FTSE250 is still below pre vote levels, I believe.
Only by 8.5% or so. What's that between friends?

(Answer: quite a lot. Think Carney used the right expression yesterday: "risks are beginning to crystallise". We are a long way yet from seeing the bumps in the road, let alone getting over them).
How do you get 8.5%?

Did you just make it up in the hope that nobody actually knows the real figure?
I used data, eyeball mark 1, and the power of arithmetic.

From March 2016 the FTSE 250 has sat around 17,000, generally +/-200 points or so.

It's now around 15,500.

17,000-15,500 = 1500.

(1500/17000)*100 = 8.8. Rounded to 8.5%
That's pretty modest after such a big decision. You might want to look to see where the index was in late January 2016 - pre Brexit and all that. Rounding will not be necessary.
I did (for anyone interested, google "ftse 250" and select the one year graph). The Feb 16 level was the nadir of a slump that started in Dec 15 - a six week period with a rally in the middle. Most of 2015 had been spent oscillating either side of 17000.

The current drop has taken two weeks (with a rally, of sorts), and the point is that the current drop is attributable to a self-inflicted cause.