The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[Digga]

Tryke3 said:

Trade deficit isnt necessarily a bad thing

NO, you are correct that, in and of itself, it says very little. Of course post-Brexit, if bi-lateral UK/EU tariffs are put in place, the composition of our imports could change rapidly and significantly. Our exports may not be switched quite so swiftly, but the better bits of industry are adaptive to change.

[Crackie]

jjlynn27 said:

You've been more than helpful with replies and for that I thank you. I still don't get the link between Chinese messing up parts, or reporting the composition of parts, and the EU.

It was the second of the two scenarios; a third party test facility produced a spurious test result. Toshiba acted cautiously based upon that test result.

As I mentioned in my reply to ///ajd, it is probably unreasonable to directly blame the EU for the shortage of certified test facilities. I do think there had been insufficient research carried out by the EU regarding impact of the directive on SME's ( the ones who didn't have the budget to purchase their own chromatography equipment ).

In today's consumer electronics market virtually every component available to a manufacturer will have its own data sheet to confirm whether or not it is RoHS compliant. This was not the case during the SW-1000 project and other products in development at that time.

[///ajd]

Crackie said:

I agree that that it may be slightly fairly unfair to be overly critical of the EU for this lack of test capacity but during that period the consumer goods industry was also enduring the introduction of lead-free solder. It was frustrating to discover that exemptions had been given for various fields ( data storage, switching, telecoms, military, ) because lead free was acknowledged by the EU to have reliability issues.

Root cause analysis is interesting to me too. No doubt you've sat through your fair share of FMEA meetings, reviewed multiple 8D reports & Ishikawa diagrams.

Edited by Crackie on Sunday 3rd December 22:58

Thanks for the replies, makes sense.

I have some fishbones on the menu tomorrow.

[kurt535]

I see Davis has done well today. What a chancer.

My interest in this shambles is how big the word FUBAR will get before it all blows up!

[PurpleMoonlight]

Oh dear ...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5151193/Da...

[jjlynn27]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Oh dear ...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5151193/Da...

Stop spreading project fear please. Everyone knows that Davis was trojan horse. It was so obvious.

[PurpleMoonlight]

jjlynn27 said:

Stop spreading project fear please. Everyone knows that Davis was trojan horse. It was so obvious.

He was what?

[jjlynn27]

PurpleMoonlight said:

jjlynn27 said:

Stop spreading project fear please. Everyone knows that Davis was trojan horse. It was so obvious.

He was what?

Trojan horse.

[PurpleMoonlight]

jjlynn27 said:

Trojan horse.

Nope, I'm none the wiser I'm afraid.

[Murph7355]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Oh dear ...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5151193/Da...

The text in the URL is not what he said...

[Funkycoldribena]

PurpleMoonlight said:

jjlynn27 said:

Trojan horse.

Nope, I'm none the wiser I'm afraid.

I think what hes saying is that Davis appears brexit on the outside but is remain on the inside,but who knows, jj talks such garbage I could be wrong.

[JagLover]

Take away the frantic spinning and it is fairly sensible

Davis said:

You don't need to do a formal impact assessment to understand that if there is a regulatory hurdle between your producers and a market, there will be an impact.

The Brexit Secretary David Davis, said quitting the Brussels club will amount to a 'paradigm change' on a level with the biggest financial slum since the Depression of the 1930s

David Davis, pictured in Parliament today, made the comment as Brexit talks have stalled after the DUP pulled the plug on the first stage of the deal on Monday afternoon

'It will have an effect, the assessment of that effect is not as straightforward as people imagine.
'I'm not a fan of economic models because they have all proven wrong.
'When you have a paradigm change - as happened in 2008 with the financial crisis - all the models were wrong. The Queen famously asked why did we not know.

[p1stonhead]

JagLover said:

Take away the frantic spinning and it is fairly sensible

Davis said:

You don't need to do a formal impact assessment to understand that if there is a regulatory hurdle between your producers and a market, there will be an impact.

The Brexit Secretary David Davis, said quitting the Brussels club will amount to a 'paradigm change' on a level with the biggest financial slum since the Depression of the 1930s

David Davis, pictured in Parliament today, made the comment as Brexit talks have stalled after the DUP pulled the plug on the first stage of the deal on Monday afternoon

'It will have an effect, the assessment of that effect is not as straightforward as people imagine.
'I'm not a fan of economic models because they have all proven wrong.
'When you have a paradigm change - as happened in 2008 with the financial crisis - all the models were wrong. The Queen famously asked why did we not know.

This is bks. All decisions in the world are based on some degree on risk assessments.

Saying ‘there will be an impact’ as an answer is beyond ludicrous.

[JagLover]

p1stonhead said:

This is bks. All decisions in the world are based on some degree on risk assessments.

Saying ‘there will be an impact’ as an answer is beyond ludicrous.

So you think there are economic models that can perfectly set out the effects of leaving the EU on a sector by sector basis. Bearing in mind the deal to replace the EU arrangements hasn't yet begun to be negotiated, the effects of import substitution are unknown, the impact on the currency is unknown, and what other agreements with the rest of the world can be signed, and the time frames to do so, are also unknown.

Economists struggle with GDP forecasts when most things can be easily predicted or are staying the same.

[p1stonhead]

JagLover said:

p1stonhead said:

This is bks. All decisions in the world are based on some degree on risk assessments.

Saying ‘there will be an impact’ as an answer is beyond ludicrous.

So you think there are economic models that can perfectly set out the effects of leaving the EU on a sector by sector basis. Bearing in mind the deal to replace the EU arrangements hasn't yet begun to be negotiated, the effects of import substitution are unknown, the impact on the currency is unknown, and what other agreements with the rest of the world can be signed, and the time frames to do so, are also unknown.

Economists struggle with GDP forecasts when most things can be easily predicted or are staying the same.

No one said there are perfect models. But risk assessments based on various possible scenarios are an every day thing in nearly every sector of anything ever.

[PRTVR]

p1stonhead said:

JagLover said:

p1stonhead said:

This is bks. All decisions in the world are based on some degree on risk assessments.

Saying ‘there will be an impact’ as an answer is beyond ludicrous.

So you think there are economic models that can perfectly set out the effects of leaving the EU on a sector by sector basis. Bearing in mind the deal to replace the EU arrangements hasn't yet begun to be negotiated, the effects of import substitution are unknown, the impact on the currency is unknown, and what other agreements with the rest of the world can be signed, and the time frames to do so, are also unknown.

Economists struggle with GDP forecasts when most things can be easily predicted or are staying the same.

No one said there are perfect models. But risk assessments based on various possible scenarios are an every day thing in nearly every sector of anything ever.

Agreed, but when there are so many variables what normally happens is a general template is used that in reality has no relation to what may happen but ticks the box for risk assessment.

[Sheets Tabuer]

May has said she disagrees with trump over Jerusalem, twice in a week now. At this rate we won't get the trade deal we were promised during the euro campaign.

[anonymous-user]

JagLover said:

Take away the frantic spinning and it is fairly sensible

Davis said:

You don't need to do a formal impact assessment to understand that if there is a regulatory hurdle between your producers and a market, there will be an impact.

The Brexit Secretary David Davis, said quitting the Brussels club will amount to a 'paradigm change' on a level with the biggest financial slum since the Depression of the 1930s

David Davis, pictured in Parliament today, made the comment as Brexit talks have stalled after the DUP pulled the plug on the first stage of the deal on Monday afternoon

'It will have an effect, the assessment of that effect is not as straightforward as people imagine.
'I'm not a fan of economic models because they have all proven wrong.
'When you have a paradigm change - as happened in 2008 with the financial crisis - all the models were wrong. The Queen famously asked why did we not know.

Her Majesty's inquiry in 2008 was "why didn't we see this coming?"

I can see Brexit coming a mile off. Look! It's right there.

Davis knows the projections are completely unpalatable. Simple as that. That's why when he says "they have all proven wrong" he is hoping against hope that that will be true this time as well.

Nothing like blind, groundless optimism to get us through Brexit eh?

It's hard to believe he was once a journeyman politician. Oh, wait...

[Disastrous]

Greg66 said:

Her Majesty's inquiry in 2008 was "why didn't we see this coming?"

I can see Brexit coming a mile off. Look! It's right there.

Davis knows the projections are completely unpalatable. Simple as that. That's why when he says "they have all proven wrong" he is hoping against hope that that will be true this time as well.

Nothing like blind, groundless optimism to get us through Brexit eh?

It's hard to believe he was once a journeyman politician. Oh, wait...

Are you sure you aren't just talking the country down, Gregg? AIUI, all we need to do is hum the Dambusters Theme and tell them we won't pay a bloody penny and the EU will instantly go bust whilst we profit eternally. If that fails, we can always fight with the US on twitter and show them how much we don't need them either, right?

>Salutes<

[ClaphamGT3]

Disastrous said:

Greg66 said:

Her Majesty's inquiry in 2008 was "why didn't we see this coming?"

I can see Brexit coming a mile off. Look! It's right there.

Davis knows the projections are completely unpalatable. Simple as that. That's why when he says "they have all proven wrong" he is hoping against hope that that will be true this time as well.

Nothing like blind, groundless optimism to get us through Brexit eh?

It's hard to believe he was once a journeyman politician. Oh, wait...

Are you sure you aren't just talking the country down, Gregg? AIUI, all we need to do is hum the Dambusters Theme and tell them we won't pay a bloody penny and the EU will instantly go bust whilst we profit eternally. If that fails, we can always fight with the US on twitter and show them how much we don't need them either, right?

>Salutes<

We must also keep repeating the mantra that they need us more than we need them. That will make it true apparently....