The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
jjlynn27 said:
Gargamel said:
p1stonhead said:
The most likely scenario though even if only Davis knows. He said multiple times that many of them existed. Suddenly when asked, they didnt.
Its either the above, or he is massively incompetent and hasnt done anything and has been lying to everyone for a year.
Which is worse? Both are f
king horrendous.
The sector analysis does exist, but they aren't an analysis of the impact of Brexit. Its either the above, or he is massively incompetent and hasnt done anything and has been lying to everyone for a year.
Which is worse? Both are f
king horrendous.The Times Nov 28 said:
David Davis yesterday handed over to the Brexit committee 39 documents, spanning 850 pages, detailing the government’s analysis of the effects of leaving the European Union on 58 areas of the economy.
They are effects not impact, right? 
JagLover said:
This is a reasonable summary of what work was carried out and how it differed to how many had interpreted previous remarks.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/06/d...
They were surveys rather than "impact" assessments.
Thank you.https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/06/d...
They were surveys rather than "impact" assessments.
Breadvan72 said:
Talking of paradigm shifts, Daily Mail comments are starting to look increasingly pro Remain.
A serious question for any serious minded Leavers (those who treat Leave as a religious belief need not bother to reply). Given what we now know, isn't it time to think again?
NoA serious question for any serious minded Leavers (those who treat Leave as a religious belief need not bother to reply). Given what we now know, isn't it time to think again?
JagLover said:
jjlynn27 said:
Gargamel said:
p1stonhead said:
The most likely scenario though even if only Davis knows. He said multiple times that many of them existed. Suddenly when asked, they didnt.
Its either the above, or he is massively incompetent and hasnt done anything and has been lying to everyone for a year.
Which is worse? Both are fking horrendous.
The sector analysis does exist, but they aren't an analysis of the impact of Brexit. Its either the above, or he is massively incompetent and hasnt done anything and has been lying to everyone for a year.
Which is worse? Both are f
king horrendous.The Times Nov 28 said:
David Davis yesterday handed over to the Brexit committee 39 documents, spanning 850 pages, detailing the government’s analysis of the effects of leaving the European Union on 58 areas of the economy.
They are effects not impact, right? Who said this in Feb 2017 said:
We continue to analyse the impact of our exit across the breadth of the UK economy, covering more than 50 sectors - I think it was 58 at the last count - to shape our negotiating position.
ETA: Davis about TM reading non-existant, but 'in excruciating detail' impact assesments.
Edited by jjlynn27 on Thursday 7th December 14:44
abzmike said:
crankedup said:
How can impact assessments be worked upon when we have yet to begin trade talks with the EU. Cannot see the relevance or indeed the point of such work until such times that we are .agreed to our trading arrangements with the EU.
So why did he say a few months ago they had been done? If they were done and were not relevant because they didn't reflect what are likely to be the conditions if and/or when a deal is done that is one thing, but not what he said. Presumably the negotiating position is informed by expected effects of the outcomes, so as to provide starting a reference points - Are we to believe the analysis has not been done? There isn't much point doing the analysis after the deal is done.Impact analysis are likely to be covered by all of the businesses affected by Brexit upon a range of thier own considered judgements. This goes for the WTO arrangements also, we do not have to rely on being told by Government to arrive at reasonable self assessments of likely outcomes imo.
For those that are reliant upon Government information they will just have to make thier own business judgements when they are published, likely several months after trade deal negotiations are rounded off, again imo.
exit to mention, my assumptions are based upon impact assessments within specific industries which would not be entirely applicable to multi faceted business.
Edited by crankedup on Thursday 7th December 15:20
Breadvan72 said:
Another "Don't worry, the apparent clusterfk is an artful concealment of masterful negotiations towards ultimate victory". If you are upset at being laughed at, get a grip and stop living in a fantasy world in which all is well. When the facts change, a rational person changes his mind. A religious person, not so much.
Pardon? That's, um, a radical reinterpretation of what I said. I asked what has changed - stuff that we know for a fact. I didn't say whether I thought the current position was the 'right' one, or that I like the direction things are apparently going in. I simply asked what new factual information you have that you think changes the situation?k is an artful concealment of masterful negotiations towards ultimate victory". If you are upset at being laughed at, get a grip and stop living in a fantasy world in which all is well. When the facts change, a rational person changes his mind. A religious person, not so much. If you apply the same creative interpretation to the news items being produced about Brexit, no wonder you think the world is doomed.
I happen to think that the Government have handled the public information side of the negotiations badly, and that there appear to be strong signs that Davis is negotiating on behalf of a Cabinet who haven't agreed what it is they want. I'm very concerned that some elements pushing for a 'super soft' Brexit are going to land us with a unsustainable 'zombie' relationship with the EU - that in the short term avoids any economic shock, but in the long term will lead to 'Referendum II - The Sequel' that will cause another few years of lost opportunity whilst we sort things out. But all of this is speculation and doesn't change my basic response that the negotiating team (not just figureheads that make easy targets) just need to get on with it.
As for concrete facts, what I understand about the NI issue that derailed things this week is that a NI journalist 'scooped' an incorrectly worded version of the agreement, which spooked the DUP. Whilst a lot of people are claiming that the government were trying to forge an agreement NI would never accept, it seems that the bigger issue here was that communications were badly handled. How much blame is to be laid at the negotiating team's feet, and how much is to be laid at the feet of parties who're more than happy to sit back and say "Why don't you sort it out then?" I don't know.
What's for certain is that some versions of "what just happened?" that I've seen doing the rounds are complete nonsense. Which is why I was asking what you think we now know for a fact that changes our situation?
Tuna said:
Breadvan72 said:
Another "Don't worry, the apparent clusterfk is an artful concealment of masterful negotiations towards ultimate victory". If you are upset at being laughed at, get a grip and stop living in a fantasy world in which all is well. When the facts change, a rational person changes his mind. A religious person, not so much.
Pardon? That's, um, a radical reinterpretation of what I said. I asked what has changed - stuff that we know for a fact. I didn't say whether I thought the current position was the 'right' one, or that I like the direction things are apparently going in. I simply asked what new factual information you have that you think changes the situation?k is an artful concealment of masterful negotiations towards ultimate victory". If you are upset at being laughed at, get a grip and stop living in a fantasy world in which all is well. When the facts change, a rational person changes his mind. A religious person, not so much. If you apply the same creative interpretation to the news items being produced about Brexit, no wonder you think the world is doomed.
It's lamentable that otherwise pleasant and intelligent people are so malleable in the hands of the media. It's quite amusing too.
Digga said:
I've a few friends on FB on the Remain/Corbyn side of the spectrum. Nice people generally, but they're all frothing about stuff at the minute. If they haven't been whipped into a pro-Hamas frenzy by Trump's latest announcement (on Manchester United being the best football team in Liverpool or whatever it was), they are all venting about this little non-story.
It's lamentable that otherwise pleasant and intelligent people are so malleable in the hands of the media. It's quite amusing too.
It's lamentable that otherwise pleasant and intelligent people are so malleable in the hands of the media. It's quite amusing too.
Luckily, you can see through the spin, while quoting random article from zero-hedge.
crankedup said:
Yesterday a select committee asked much the same questions to which the answer was not convincing one way or other. However, I still cannot see the point in conducting impact assessments on any given scenario’s of what our trade agreements may or may not be. Any assessments publishes would be pointless imo.
Impact analysis are likely to be covered by all of the businesses affected by Brexit upon a range of thier own considered judgements. This goes for the WTO arrangements also, we do not have to rely on being told by Government to arrive at reasonable self assessments of likely outcomes imo.
For those that are reliant upon Government information they will just have to make thier own business judgements when they are published, likely several months after trade deal negotiations are rounded off, again imo.
exit to mention, my assumptions are based upon impact assessments within specific industries which would not be entirely applicable to multi faceted business.
No offence, but I don't think that you understand the purpose of impact assessments. Impact analysis are likely to be covered by all of the businesses affected by Brexit upon a range of thier own considered judgements. This goes for the WTO arrangements also, we do not have to rely on being told by Government to arrive at reasonable self assessments of likely outcomes imo.
For those that are reliant upon Government information they will just have to make thier own business judgements when they are published, likely several months after trade deal negotiations are rounded off, again imo.
exit to mention, my assumptions are based upon impact assessments within specific industries which would not be entirely applicable to multi faceted business.
Edited by crankedup on Thursday 7th December 15:20
jjlynn27 said:
crankedup said:
Yesterday a select committee asked much the same questions to which the answer was not convincing one way or other. However, I still cannot see the point in conducting impact assessments on any given scenario’s of what our trade agreements may or may not be. Any assessments publishes would be pointless imo.
Impact analysis are likely to be covered by all of the businesses affected by Brexit upon a range of thier own considered judgements. This goes for the WTO arrangements also, we do not have to rely on being told by Government to arrive at reasonable self assessments of likely outcomes imo.
For those that are reliant upon Government information they will just have to make thier own business judgements when they are published, likely several months after trade deal negotiations are rounded off, again imo.
exit to mention, my assumptions are based upon impact assessments within specific industries which would not be entirely applicable to multi faceted business.
No offence, but I don't think that you understand the purpose of impact assessments. Impact analysis are likely to be covered by all of the businesses affected by Brexit upon a range of thier own considered judgements. This goes for the WTO arrangements also, we do not have to rely on being told by Government to arrive at reasonable self assessments of likely outcomes imo.
For those that are reliant upon Government information they will just have to make thier own business judgements when they are published, likely several months after trade deal negotiations are rounded off, again imo.
exit to mention, my assumptions are based upon impact assessments within specific industries which would not be entirely applicable to multi faceted business.
Edited by crankedup on Thursday 7th December 15:20
jjlynn27 said:
Digga said:
I've a few friends on FB on the Remain/Corbyn side of the spectrum. Nice people generally, but they're all frothing about stuff at the minute. If they haven't been whipped into a pro-Hamas frenzy by Trump's latest announcement (on Manchester United being the best football team in Liverpool or whatever it was), they are all venting about this little non-story.
It's lamentable that otherwise pleasant and intelligent people are so malleable in the hands of the media. It's quite amusing too.
It's lamentable that otherwise pleasant and intelligent people are so malleable in the hands of the media. It's quite amusing too.
Luckily, you can see through the spin, while quoting random article from zero-hedge.
Try the same news, wrapped up in a different bit of chip paper: https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-payment-targ...
Reuters said:
A steady stream of cash from the euro zone’s periphery to German banks is likely to dry up once the European Central Bank unwinds its huge bond-buying program, an ECB research paper showed on Friday....
...The central banks of Italy and Spain have accumulated record debts toward the ECB’s Target payment system while Germany piled up a huge credit since the 2015 launch of the ECB program, which has now surpassed 2 trillion euros and is widely seen as nearing its end...
Payments via Target are not settled by national central banks. That means any debt would have to be paid if a euro zone country left the bloc, as ECB President Mario Draghi recently said in a letter to two Italian lawmakers earlier this year.
Play the ball, not the man....The central banks of Italy and Spain have accumulated record debts toward the ECB’s Target payment system while Germany piled up a huge credit since the 2015 launch of the ECB program, which has now surpassed 2 trillion euros and is widely seen as nearing its end...
Payments via Target are not settled by national central banks. That means any debt would have to be paid if a euro zone country left the bloc, as ECB President Mario Draghi recently said in a letter to two Italian lawmakers earlier this year.
Digga said:
Play the ball, not the man.
I am. I find it funny that you think that your friends, just because they have a different opinion from you about things are malleable. But you, who post things from zero-hedge, are not malleable. I find that comical. Do you not see the funny side of that?
jjlynn27 said:
I am.
I find it funny that you think that your friends, just because they have a different opinion from you about things are malleable. But you, who post things from zero-hedge, are not malleable. I find that comical. Do you not see the funny side of that?
i took it digga thought it was funny his friends were getting wound up by whatabboutery while ignoring actual facts relating to the eurozone, i could be wrong though.I find it funny that you think that your friends, just because they have a different opinion from you about things are malleable. But you, who post things from zero-hedge, are not malleable. I find that comical. Do you not see the funny side of that?
wc98 said:
jjlynn27 said:
I am.
I find it funny that you think that your friends, just because they have a different opinion from you about things are malleable. But you, who post things from zero-hedge, are not malleable. I find that comical. Do you not see the funny side of that?
i took it digga thought it was funny his friends were getting wound up by whatabboutery while ignoring actual facts relating to the eurozone, i could be wrong though.I find it funny that you think that your friends, just because they have a different opinion from you about things are malleable. But you, who post things from zero-hedge, are not malleable. I find that comical. Do you not see the funny side of that?
I find it funny when people think that people who don't agree with them are malleable, and at the same time post stuff from outfits like zero-hedge. It's not solely directed at digga, but more of the general musing. I don't know how to say it differently.
Meh, back on topic, bad news, pound up to 1.15. :
jjlynn27 said:
One of these days I'll get to express myself better over the internet.
I find it funny when people think that people who don't agree with them are malleable, and at the same time post stuff from outfits like zero-hedge. It's not solely directed at digga, but more of the general musing. I don't know how to say it differently.
Meh, back on topic, bad news, pound up to 1.15. :
it wasn't meant as a criticism ,just my take on it was different to yours . would be a quiet forum if we all interpreted everything the same I find it funny when people think that people who don't agree with them are malleable, and at the same time post stuff from outfits like zero-hedge. It's not solely directed at digga, but more of the general musing. I don't know how to say it differently.
Meh, back on topic, bad news, pound up to 1.15. :
jjlynn27 said:
Digga said:
Play the ball, not the man.
I am. I find it funny that you think that your friends, just because they have a different opinion from you about things are malleable. But you, who post things from zero-hedge, are not malleable. I find that comical. Do you not see the funny side of that?
Most of the media are like stopped clocks; right every once in a while. Some more, or less than others.
I chose ZH article because these sorts of stories tend to be given more airtime (along with the admitted preponderance of tinfoil-hattery) there than in the mainstream, but then I;ve provided another link on Reuters to the same subject, for balance.
I prefer to pick and choose what media I read and, crucially, how I allow (or rather do not allow) it to influence my state of mind and reason.
wc98 said:
jjlynn27 said:
One of these days I'll get to express myself better over the internet.
I find it funny when people think that people who don't agree with them are malleable, and at the same time post stuff from outfits like zero-hedge. It's not solely directed at digga, but more of the general musing. I don't know how to say it differently.
Meh, back on topic, bad news, pound up to 1.15. :
it wasn't meant as a criticism ,just my take on it was different to yours . would be a quiet forum if we all interpreted everything the same I find it funny when people think that people who don't agree with them are malleable, and at the same time post stuff from outfits like zero-hedge. It's not solely directed at digga, but more of the general musing. I don't know how to say it differently.
Meh, back on topic, bad news, pound up to 1.15. :
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