How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[NickCQ]

There was also £300 bn of "monetary" QE this time round through the APF, so that has to have gone somewhere.

[MuscleSedan]

Well here we are in January and in my immediate area not one of the many places allegedly 'sold STC' in August / September has had anyone move in yet.

Generally speaking is it really taking 'that' long ?

[Burwood]

MuscleSedan said:

Well here we are in January and in my immediate area not one of the many places allegedly 'sold STC' in August / September has had anyone move in yet.

Generally speaking is it really taking 'that' long ?

Tier 4?

[kiethton]

Burwood said:

Tier 4?

Still allowed to view property and move as per the regulations.

Far more likely is the delays to searches caused by the local council workers who will often use any excuse not to do their job...

[MuscleSedan]

Yes East Anglia Tier 4 from Boxing Day.

[Biggy Stardust]

MuscleSedan said:

Well here we are in January and in my immediate area not one of the many places allegedly 'sold STC' in August / September has had anyone move in yet.

Generally speaking is it really taking 'that' long ?

Local authority searches are taking ridiculously long times to be completed- the official reason for this is covid but I believe that laziness & incompetence are major factors.

[Burwood]

Biggy Stardust said:

MuscleSedan said:

Well here we are in January and in my immediate area not one of the many places allegedly 'sold STC' in August / September has had anyone move in yet.

Generally speaking is it really taking 'that' long ?

Local authority searches are taking ridiculously long times to be completed- the official reason for this is covid but I believe that laziness & incompetence are major factors.

Things are taking longer because of so much furlough.

[caymanbill]

NickCQ said:

There was also £300 bn of "monetary" QE this time round through the APF, so that has to have gone somewhere.

What's the difference between "monetary" QE and "normal" QE?

[NickCQ]

caymanbill said:

What's the difference between "monetary" QE and "normal" QE?

Monetary QE is just QE, i.e. carrying out monetary policy by increasing the money supply (not through interest rates). When I wrote my uni dissertation we called that 'unconventional monetary policy' but it has become conventional in the intervening 10 years!

I only phrased it like that because I was replying to a poster describing the furlough scheme as QE, which is not entirely correct, as it is a fiscal policy action not a monetary one.

[NickCQ]

MuscleSedan said:

Well here we are in January and in my immediate area not one of the many places allegedly 'sold STC' in August / September has had anyone move in yet.

Generally speaking is it really taking 'that' long ?

We had an offer accepted in early September and completed on the 9th of December, in London so in lockdown / Tier 4 for most of it. Slowest part was Platform processing the mortgage application, which took 5 weeks to offer plus an additional a week when we agreed a price adjustment to reflect some survey findings.

[Helicopter123]

NickCQ said:

caymanbill said:

What's the difference between "monetary" QE and "normal" QE?

Monetary QE is just QE, i.e. carrying out monetary policy by increasing the money supply (not through interest rates). When I wrote my uni dissertation we called that 'unconventional monetary policy' but it has become conventional in the intervening 10 years!

I only phrased it like that because I was replying to a poster describing the furlough scheme as QE, which is not entirely correct, as it is a fiscal policy action not a monetary one.

£300bn of freshly printed sterling has to find a home and it will be in real assets again, shares and property. Fill your boots is the message from last time around after the GFC.

[CaptainSlow]

Helicopter123 said:

£300bn of freshly printed sterling has to find a home and it will be in real assets again, shares and property. Fill your boots is the message from last time around after the GFC.

this is 300bn of lost productivity...it isn't extra money.

[Shnozz]

MuscleSedan said:

Well here we are in January and in my immediate area not one of the many places allegedly 'sold STC' in August / September has had anyone move in yet.

Generally speaking is it really taking 'that' long ?

I can see a glut of SSTC properties flooding the market if the search/solicitor backlog takes it over the stamp duty holiday period. As much as its just seen the stamp duty added to the sale price, the psychological "saving", coupled with the fact the stamp duty has to be paid in cold hard cash rather than part of the monthlies, has certainly caused a strong market.

[NickCQ]

CaptainSlow said:

Helicopter123 said:

£300bn of freshly printed sterling has to find a home and it will be in real assets again, shares and property. Fill your boots is the message from last time around after the GFC.

this is 300bn of lost productivity...it isn't extra money.

It is extra money (we were talking about the Bank of England's APF). It's not extra "economic value", whatever that means.

[CaptainSlow]

NickCQ said:

CaptainSlow said:

Helicopter123 said:

£300bn of freshly printed sterling has to find a home and it will be in real assets again, shares and property. Fill your boots is the message from last time around after the GFC.

this is 300bn of lost productivity...it isn't extra money.

It is extra money (we were talking about the Bank of England's APF). It's not extra "economic value", whatever that means.

Fair enough, that's what I meant.

[kingston12]

Shnozz said:

This is the fascinating factor in this predicament. On top of the economic factors caused by the pandemic, has it created a migration to more rural/spacious properties?

It's going to vary significantly by area. Around here (Zone 6 London suburbs) the effect just seems to have strengthened the trends which were already emerging - the market for flats stalling due to massive over supply, whilst houses with no major problems/drawbacks tend to sell quickly.

There did seem to have been a real glut of houses coming onto the market over the summer which might indicate that more people decided to move to areas further out, but the fact that they all sold quickly suggests that the net effect on the area isn't negative.

Areas further out into the commuter belt seem to have done better from this - Sevenoaks in Kent was reported in The Times as being the area which had the largest increase in buyers from London and the asking prices there certainly seem to have step-changed this year.

That stands to reason, but I was expecting the biggest rises to be in nice areas with compromised commutes as people wouldn't mind that if they were commuting less frequently, rather than areas like Sevenoaks which already has house prices that reflect it's position of having one of the quickest and easiest commutes into London.

[okgo]

Probably sensible not to bet your house on your job never needing you present more than once or twice a week ever again...Sevenoaks not a bad middle ground, near to country, still possible to go in daily if that ever should become the case again, which lets face it, isn't 'that' hard to imagine.

[z4RRSchris]

i reckon at best, once this is all sorted, i will be able to WFH on a friday.

the WFH for ever is overplayed, i think,

[NickCQ]

z4RRSchris said:

the WFH for ever is overplayed, i think

Front office agree, for middle/back office I think indefinite WFH and reducing office overhead is very probable.

[okgo]

NickCQ said:

Front office agree, for middle/back office I think indefinite WFH and reducing office overhead is very probable.

And for those that don't work in investment banks?

You know,the other 98% of the population!