How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
okgo said:
Probably sensible not to bet your house on your job never needing you present more than once or twice a week ever again...Sevenoaks not a bad middle ground, near to country, still possible to go in daily if that ever should become the case again, which lets face it, isn't 'that' hard to imagine.
True. I know the area quite well, and it definitely represents a good compromise, although it is priced as such. You've got to be quite careful with exact location though. Some of the houses that seem to have gone up in price the most are two miles from the station and my understanding is that you have to go on a waiting list for a car parking space!As you say, committing to a house in an area with a much longer commute will probably only become widespread when/if it is confirmed that working patterns have changed enough going forward.
okgo said:
NickCQ said:
Front office agree, for middle/back office I think indefinite WFH and reducing office overhead is very probable.
And for those that don't work in investment banks? 
You know,the other 98% of the population!
okgo said:
NickCQ said:
Front office agree, for middle/back office I think indefinite WFH and reducing office overhead is very probable.
And for those that don't work in investment banks? You know,the other 98% of the population!
NickCQ said:
More seriously, you can think about lots of jobs / industries in front/middle/back office classifications. If you meet directly with clients, whether in sales or service provision you are 'front office', so physical location is important. If you are in administration / ops then I suppose that's middle/back office and easier / more efficient to do remotely?
Yeh, made some sense. I'm front office in that definition, and while the luxury of being at home is pleasant mostly, it's not conducive to the greatest business outcomes IMO.NickCQ said:
okgo said:
NickCQ said:
Front office agree, for middle/back office I think indefinite WFH and reducing office overhead is very probable.
And for those that don't work in investment banks? You know,the other 98% of the population!
Furlough seems to be a four letter word in these fora but I fear a good many smug WFHers are sleepwalking into unemployment too.
Shnozz said:
I am on the fence. Part of me believes the moment we can return to January 2020, we will in all senses including working from offices. However, I do know of several large companies (not just IBs) that have now already given notice on offices. One of my big clients is a huge multi-national that has confirmed a massive downsize of an office near Victoria.
Speaking to a former colleague at one of the main international property consultants over Christmas, their lease is due for renewal this year and they are considering new space of 30-40% of what they currently have.scenario8 said:
Is there not a very real risk “more efficient to do remotely?” is, in fact, code for “by cheaper labour overseas”.
Furlough seems to be a four letter word in these fora but I fear a good many smug WFHers are sleepwalking into unemployment too.
Even if firms don't want to go overseas, London employers will be able to access a wider talent pool in the UK as commuting a couple of times a week will be do-able from a lot more areas than going in every day. Furlough seems to be a four letter word in these fora but I fear a good many smug WFHers are sleepwalking into unemployment too.
If that happens, you'd have to expect a reduction in the premium paid for London/SE properties.
soxboy said:
Speaking to a former colleague at one of the main international property consultants over Christmas, their lease is due for renewal this year and they are considering new space of 30-40% of what they currently have.
An office move project where I was working a couple of years ago was based on 60% occupancy and that was obviously well before Covid hit. If they were doing the same project now, I can't imagine it would be more than 40%.NickCQ said:
okgo said:
NickCQ said:
Front office agree, for middle/back office I think indefinite WFH and reducing office overhead is very probable.
And for those that don't work in investment banks? You know,the other 98% of the population!
I think most of us, (sectors) very slow to WFH. I visited a service station on M11 on my way to Cambridge from London a few years ago. The whole place, and especially Starbucks was massive, loads of people were using in between office space or meeting area... I'm quite used to seeing these in central London but not on service stations, it was quite eye-opening.
Except specialist or higher education, it will be adapted heavily. One of the big architectural practices in U.K. planning a big shift to WFH as well, and usually architects would work in the studio in groups.
Except specialist or higher education, it will be adapted heavily. One of the big architectural practices in U.K. planning a big shift to WFH as well, and usually architects would work in the studio in groups.
kingston12 said:
An office move project where I was working a couple of years ago was based on 60% occupancy and that was obviously well before Covid hit. If they were doing the same project now, I can't imagine it would be more than 40%.
This has been the norm for some smaller companies especially start-ups. Hot-desks and meeting rooms with enough seats for those who prefer not to work from home (usually have a short commute or senior management). Even mid 2010-s I used to work from different offices around the world - aside from Zoom and ilk i can't think of any major WFH innovations since.soxboy said:
Shnozz said:
I am on the fence. Part of me believes the moment we can return to January 2020, we will in all senses including working from offices. However, I do know of several large companies (not just IBs) that have now already given notice on offices. One of my big clients is a huge multi-national that has confirmed a massive downsize of an office near Victoria.
Speaking to a former colleague at one of the main international property consultants over Christmas, their lease is due for renewal this year and they are considering new space of 30-40% of what they currently have.AstonZagato said:
soxboy said:
Shnozz said:
I am on the fence. Part of me believes the moment we can return to January 2020, we will in all senses including working from offices. However, I do know of several large companies (not just IBs) that have now already given notice on offices. One of my big clients is a huge multi-national that has confirmed a massive downsize of an office near Victoria.
Speaking to a former colleague at one of the main international property consultants over Christmas, their lease is due for renewal this year and they are considering new space of 30-40% of what they currently have.fido said:
kingston12 said:
An office move project where I was working a couple of years ago was based on 60% occupancy and that was obviously well before Covid hit. If they were doing the same project now, I can't imagine it would be more than 40%.
This has been the norm for some smaller companies especially start-ups. Hot-desks and meeting rooms with enough seats for those who prefer not to work from home (usually have a short commute or senior management). Even mid 2010-s I used to work from different offices around the world - aside from Zoom and ilk i can't think of any major WFH innovations since.I remember working for a large global bank and there was always an issue when there was weather bad enough to stop people commuting because there was only enough capacity for a small percentage to 'dial in' as it used to be referred to. Even without those issues, it was still fairly unreliable at the best of times.
I'm currently working for a much smaller organisation and everything works pretty much 100% of the time, even though we are all currently WFH.
I am certain that come mid-March> we will see a whole raft of properties that were SSTC return to the market as the realisation comes that they will miss the stamp duty holiday, whether due to the backlog in searches, solicitors workload/WFH, mortgage delays or any number of reasons why it couldn't be pushed through in time.
Shnozz said:
I am certain that come mid-March we will see a whole raft of properties that were SSTC return to the market as the realisation comes that they will miss the stamp duty holiday
I doubt that chain-free sellers will take the risk of going back to market over agreeing to bear some share of the £15k tax increase.NickCQ said:
Shnozz said:
I am certain that come mid-March we will see a whole raft of properties that were SSTC return to the market as the realisation comes that they will miss the stamp duty holiday
I doubt that chain-free sellers will take the risk of going back to market over agreeing to bear some share of the £15k tax increase.
Plus the vast majority of houses sold in this country aren’t at London prices.
We had an offer accepted mid-December on an old bungalow on a quarter acre plot.
If it completes within the window that’s fine, if not it’s an extra £4k.
Yes I’d rather have that left in the kitty but would I let it stop us buying our ideal next home. Nope.
As Nick says it will just be a case of buyers and sellers getting their heads together and being sensible.
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