How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
turbobloke said:
p1stonhead said:
tannhauser said:
p1stonhead said:
V6Alfisti said:
p1stonhead said:
Overvalued compared to incomes. Thats not the same. Foreign investors dont have 'incomes' which means its pointless. Not only locals can buy.
We all know that as soon as interest rates reach a normal average, house prices definitely will not be maintained.ten years is 'normal' in my book. Its certainly been a much longer constant rate than ever before. Doesnt that count as 'normal'?
Anyone on a 20 year mortgage would be more than half through on these ‘unsustainable’ rates if they secured it ten years ago.
You can fix right now for 5 years at under 2% and 10 years at under 3%. A 2.7% (available to me right now) ten year fix could get me within 4 years of finishing my mortgage and i would be 45 or with a bit of overpaying would clear it easily.
Rates will not go up past 2% BOE for at least 5 years IMO
Edited by p1stonhead on Monday 30th July 18:48
Low odds.
One of my places is becoming vacant shortly- I think it's time to sell.
There are various personal reasons for wanting to sell but in addition to these I think the market is going to stagnate at best, the government are actively attacking landlords and the attacks will increase plus there is the risk of a near-future labour government making me feel the need to acquire some flight assets & a foreign bolthole.
Time to sell up, take the money & prepare to run.
There are various personal reasons for wanting to sell but in addition to these I think the market is going to stagnate at best, the government are actively attacking landlords and the attacks will increase plus there is the risk of a near-future labour government making me feel the need to acquire some flight assets & a foreign bolthole.
Time to sell up, take the money & prepare to run.
As this is nearly due another volume, this was the third post in Nov 2012.
jonny70 said:
how far will they fall by the time we get to page 500?
Can't be bothered to find precise numbers but it looks in the area of £180K to £225K riseWonder what the next 500 pages will bring...
Edited by OzzyR1 on Monday 30th July 20:17
fido said:
ashleyman said:
Armageddon is already happening because of Trump & Brexit. It is in advertising anyway.
Yeah, it's terrible at the moment .. it took me a whole 3 weeks from viewing to exchange to sell a property last month. I'm still waiting for the doom and gloom to spread to the supply-side - the most realistic vendor I have come across so far is willing to sell me their place for only 5% over the surveyor valuation.Edited by fido on Thursday 19th July 10:49
Keep waiting for the slowdown but I can't see it happening this year - too much demand
JBR58 said:
Yep. If a house is up for sale for longer than a couple of weeks where I live there's something wrong with it! It's been like this for the 3 years +, and no sign of letting up. ...oh, and don't even think of going in lower than the asking if you want to be considered as a serious buyer.
Keep waiting for the slowdown but I can't see it happening this year - too much demand
Wild guess but are you in York? I straight-out offered full (and generous) asking price this morning on first viewing of an off-market property and it was 20k over and heading to sealed bids within an hour.Keep waiting for the slowdown but I can't see it happening this year - too much demand
Linked below is a story about a subject that i dont think is getting much attention.
Mr Corbyns plan to give the BoE a ‘dual mandate’ in order to facilitate political descisions as to which areas of the economy credit is to be targetted at / avaiable for.
Full on centralised planning / command economy here we come......?
Good for housing? I doubt it, in fact proabably not good for much.
https://mises.org/wire/british-left-unveils-plan-w...
Mr Corbyns plan to give the BoE a ‘dual mandate’ in order to facilitate political descisions as to which areas of the economy credit is to be targetted at / avaiable for.
Full on centralised planning / command economy here we come......?
Good for housing? I doubt it, in fact proabably not good for much.
https://mises.org/wire/british-left-unveils-plan-w...
p1stonhead said:
Says who?
Anyone on a 20 year mortgage would be more than half through on these ‘unsustainable’ rates if they secured it ten years ago.
You can fix right now for 5 years at under 2% and 10 years at under 3%. A 2.7% (available to me right now) ten year fix could get me within 4 years of finishing my mortgage and i would be 45 having never experienced any BOE rates above 0.5% as a homeowner.
Rates will not go up past 2% BOE for at least 5 years IMO
Again - see my previous comment about partially playing devils advocate.
The point about anyone on a mortgage ...accepted that was loose wording/thinking. Anyone on a 20 year mortgage would be more than half through on these ‘unsustainable’ rates if they secured it ten years ago.
You can fix right now for 5 years at under 2% and 10 years at under 3%. A 2.7% (available to me right now) ten year fix could get me within 4 years of finishing my mortgage and i would be 45 having never experienced any BOE rates above 0.5% as a homeowner.
Rates will not go up past 2% BOE for at least 5 years IMO
Again - see my previous comment about partially playing devils advocate.
Edited by p1stonhead on Monday 30th July 18:50
This thinking applies more to new first steppers/those who are pushing their luck abit, rather than those that have bought with a healthy deposit/retain savings or half way through a mortgage having bought at house prices nearly half what they are now. All to be taken in perspective.
You also use your own position to suggest this is the norm, I suspect many new entrants would not be in the same position.
The point about negative equity remains, if you were a new entrant to the market fixed at 2% for 5 years and house prices drop, and try to remortgage at new rates/equity...your approach fails quickly. No-one knows what the next 5-10 years, but I personally prefer to plan with some buffer.
On the point of 10 years of sub 0.5% being normal, I know you are playing devils advocate but hopefully you know as well as anyone that it isn't sustainable and causes multiple issues including inflation.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Monday 30th July 21:13
Zonergem said:
JBR58 said:
Yep. If a house is up for sale for longer than a couple of weeks where I live there's something wrong with it! It's been like this for the 3 years +, and no sign of letting up. ...oh, and don't even think of going in lower than the asking if you want to be considered as a serious buyer.
Keep waiting for the slowdown but I can't see it happening this year - too much demand
Wild guess but are you in York? I straight-out offered full (and generous) asking price this morning on first viewing of an off-market property and it was 20k over and heading to sealed bids within an hour.Keep waiting for the slowdown but I can't see it happening this year - too much demand
Slightly out of topic (or not)
Anyone familiar with Woodford Green area (London) ? I have been to Lexus dealer there recently, blimey there are some fantastic houses there with massive drive-ways! checking at Zoopla, they are not looking that expensive? (shy of 1 million or 1.5).. and not so far away from London with central line connection.
Anyone familiar with Woodford Green area (London) ? I have been to Lexus dealer there recently, blimey there are some fantastic houses there with massive drive-ways! checking at Zoopla, they are not looking that expensive? (shy of 1 million or 1.5).. and not so far away from London with central line connection.
Rovinghawk said:
One of my places is becoming vacant shortly- I think it's time to sell.
There are various personal reasons for wanting to sell but in addition to these I think the market is going to stagnate at best, the government are actively attacking landlords and the attacks will increase plus there is the risk of a near-future labour government making me feel the need to acquire some flight assets & a foreign bolthole.
Time to sell up, take the money & prepare to run.
There are various personal reasons for wanting to sell but in addition to these I think the market is going to stagnate at best, the government are actively attacking landlords and the attacks will increase plus there is the risk of a near-future labour government making me feel the need to acquire some flight assets & a foreign bolthole.
Time to sell up, take the money & prepare to run.
I've just relocated to Lincolnshire from Hertfordshire for work so I've had a search set up on Rightmove for the past year or so. I would honestly say there has been an imperceptible softening in the housing market compared to 12/18 months ago.
I've noticed that good properties in Lincolnshire at the right price are still sold before you can blink but others are having to reduce the asking by quite a lot and still not selling.
Flats where I used to live in Hertfordshire where I could walk out of my front door and be on the tube at Kings Cross inside the hour all on public transport are prime commuter territory...
A good 75% have been reduced from their original asking price, the other 25% will, imho need to reduce the asking if they want a realistic chance of selling, I sold 5% below what I wanted but still think the buyer paid too much.
Personally I'd get out now whilst there are still buyers about as I think any sort ot BTL property will at best stagnate pricewise and if Comrade Corbyn gets in the kick in the b
ks BTL landlords have received over the last year will seem like a lovers caress compared to the right royal screwing Corbyn will dish out.OzzyR1 said:
As this is nearly due another volume, this was the third post in Nov 2012.
Wonder what the next 500 pages will bring...
It’ll bring brick kickers who never actually buy but enjoy talking the market down. Plus ça changejonny70 said:
how far will they fall by the time we get to page 500?
Can't be bothered to find precise numbers but it looks in the area of £180K to £225K riseWonder what the next 500 pages will bring...
turbobloke said:
It looks to me as though the BoE committee is looking to make room for a rate reduction or two early- to mid-next year, given that there are grounds (excuses) for a modest rise at the moment in terms of wages and borrowing
.
Thats exacty my view point, any hike that may come this year, isnt the start of a process to some kind of 'normalisation' of rates, its attempting to give some breathing space to cut when things get stinky next year..
V6Alfisti said:
Absolutely and history supports a number of those fears, I cannot comprehend anyone with knowledge thinking it will be the status quo when the cost of borrowing goes up against a back drop of the highest salary to house value disparities in recorded history.
Even with all the QE, HTB e.t.c the market in large parts of London are falling over itself. That doesn't take imagination, its happening right now.
I'll bet you £100 to a chosen charity that we wont see 3.5% base rate within 5 years of today. Deal?Even with all the QE, HTB e.t.c the market in large parts of London are falling over itself. That doesn't take imagination, its happening right now.
V6Alfisti said:
The point about anyone on a mortgage ...accepted that was loose wording/thinking.
This thinking applies more to new first steppers/those who are pushing their luck abit, rather than those that have bought with a healthy deposit/retain savings or half way through a mortgage having bought at house prices nearly half what they are now. All to be taken in perspective.
You also use your own position to suggest this is the norm, I suspect many new entrants would not be in the same position.
The point about negative equity remains, if you were a new entrant to the market fixed at 2% for 5 years and house prices drop, and try to remortgage at new rates/equity...your approach fails quickly. No-one knows what the next 5-10 years, but I personally prefer to plan with some buffer.
On the point of 10 years of sub 0.5% being normal, I know you are playing devils advocate but hopefully you know as well as anyone that it isn't sustainable and causes multiple issues including inflation.
How long would rates have to be sub 1% for you to consider them a new normal?This thinking applies more to new first steppers/those who are pushing their luck abit, rather than those that have bought with a healthy deposit/retain savings or half way through a mortgage having bought at house prices nearly half what they are now. All to be taken in perspective.
You also use your own position to suggest this is the norm, I suspect many new entrants would not be in the same position.
The point about negative equity remains, if you were a new entrant to the market fixed at 2% for 5 years and house prices drop, and try to remortgage at new rates/equity...your approach fails quickly. No-one knows what the next 5-10 years, but I personally prefer to plan with some buffer.
On the point of 10 years of sub 0.5% being normal, I know you are playing devils advocate but hopefully you know as well as anyone that it isn't sustainable and causes multiple issues including inflation.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Monday 30th July 21:13
I think you are grossly oversimplifing the mess we find ourselves in regarding the next couple of years of uncertainty.
gibbon said:
I'll bet you £100 to a chosen charity that we wont see 3.5% base rate within 5 years of today. Deal?
The question was what is my view of a normal average base rate, not what that would be in 5 years. Don't be a tool. Who knows exactly what the impact of the rolling out of brexit will do.Lucky for me the London market is already dropping and has done quite significantly in certain areas already on a base rate of 0.5%, because interest rates arent the only element of housing, FI which has been mentioned before, BTL which has been mentioned before, let alone the removal of the driving up of house prices on the belief that an asset will be more expensive tomorrow...not many people think that in large parts of London anymore.
Interest rate is one of many levers, as I have said a thousand times for those that aren't trying to sugar coat/distract.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 31st July 09:18
Tango13 said:
I've just relocated to Lincolnshire from Hertfordshire for work so I've had a search set up on Rightmove for the past year or so. I would honestly say there has been an imperceptible softening in the housing market compared to 12/18 months ago.
I've noticed that good properties in Lincolnshire at the right price are still sold before you can blink but others are having to reduce the asking by quite a lot and still not selling.
Flats where I used to live in Hertfordshire where I could walk out of my front door and be on the tube at Kings Cross inside the hour all on public transport are prime commuter territory...
A good 75% have been reduced from their original asking price, the other 25% will, imho need to reduce the asking if they want a realistic chance of selling, I sold 5% below what I wanted but still think the buyer paid too much.
Personally I'd get out now whilst there are still buyers about as I think any sort ot BTL property will at best stagnate pricewise and if Comrade Corbyn gets in the kick in the b
ks BTL landlords have received over the last year will seem like a lovers caress compared to the right royal screwing Corbyn will dish out.I can’t see any positives for the BTL market if Corbyn gets into power, punitive tax rates, restrictive rent increases, more rights for the renter (?) ... etc.
gibbon said:
No need to be rude old chap, if im a tool, im a lucky one. 
Ok. Where do you think base rate will be in 5 years? You have lots of views of what normal will be, and how quickly we should get back there, so lets put a number on it shall we? We can make it easier if you like, where do you think it will be in 2 years?
See above for a more detailed retort, I don't have any strong views on interest rates or have looked particularly closely at it, but it will certainly be above 0.5% that many new/recent entrants to the market are struggling with. That's all I need to know given the surrounding factors that are already impacting London.Ok. Where do you think base rate will be in 5 years? You have lots of views of what normal will be, and how quickly we should get back there, so lets put a number on it shall we? We can make it easier if you like, where do you think it will be in 2 years?
The beauty of this is that I don't need to even 'guess', London has already started to unfold and is back to 2014 sold values in some areas as has already been proven by the same sold property over different years, or we can play guess the interest rate in 17.4 months old chap.
Rovinghawk said:
One of my places is becoming vacant shortly- I think it's time to sell.
There are various personal reasons for wanting to sell but in addition to these I think the market is going to stagnate at best, the government are actively attacking landlords and the attacks will increase plus there is the risk of a near-future labour government making me feel the need to acquire some flight assets & a foreign bolthole.
Time to sell up, take the money & prepare to run.
Quoting this as it's a significant change in tone from Rovinghawk. If a successful landlord sees the clouds gathering and decides to move out, the majority of clueless amateurs out there are in for a rinse. There are various personal reasons for wanting to sell but in addition to these I think the market is going to stagnate at best, the government are actively attacking landlords and the attacks will increase plus there is the risk of a near-future labour government making me feel the need to acquire some flight assets & a foreign bolthole.
Time to sell up, take the money & prepare to run.
And the critical mass of BTL do move a market.
V6Alfisti said:
See above for a more detailed retort, I don't have any strong views on interest rates or have looked particularly closely at it, but it will certainly be above 0.5% that many new/recent entrants to the market are struggling with. That's all I need to know given the surrounding factors that are already impacting London.
The beauty of this is that I don't need to even 'guess', London has already started to unfold and is back to 2014 sold values in some areas as has already been proven by the same sold property over different years, or we can play guess the interest rate in 17.4 months old chap.
I read above, you talked about 3.5% averages, normals, and your belief we would return there, I would call that a fairly strong view.The beauty of this is that I don't need to even 'guess', London has already started to unfold and is back to 2014 sold values in some areas as has already been proven by the same sold property over different years, or we can play guess the interest rate in 17.4 months old chap.
I happen to see things differently, and for a bit fun would like to take the opposite view to you in the form of a small charitable donation.
A tool and his money are easily parted, so i thought you'd jump at the chance.
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